Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files – Episode Summary: "Trump Promised Peace. What Went Wrong?"
In this compelling episode of The Ex Files, hosts Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin delve into the complexities of contemporary global conflicts, dissecting the challenges in negotiating lasting peace amidst ongoing wars and geopolitical tensions. Released on August 5, 2025, the episode titled "Trump Promised Peace. What Went Wrong?" offers a thorough analysis of recent developments in the Gaza conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the ramifications of former President Donald Trump's foreign and economic policies.
1. Navigating Humanitarian Crises: Gaza Under Netanyahu and Trump's Influence
The episode opens with an examination of the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. Amanpour and Rubin discuss President Trump's initial statements and actions aimed at alleviating the starvation crisis, juxtaposed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's continued military offensive against Hamas.
- Christiane Amanpour emphasizes the complexity of the situation:
"When President Trump says, kids are starving and we can do something about it, that's going to put pressure on Netanyahu." ([02:47])
Despite Trump's apparent commitment to addressing the humanitarian issues, Amanpour points out that Netanyahu's strategy remains unchanged, focusing on eliminating Hamas rather than facilitating a sustainable peace agreement. This rigid approach has not only exacerbated the suffering in Gaza but also eroded Israel's standing globally, with increasing opposition from the Democratic Party in the U.S.
- Jamie Rubin highlights the political fallout:
"It's getting incredibly dire, and obviously the Palestinians are suffering desperately... Prime Minister Netanyahu continuing the war where even his own military, at least formers say it's not necessary anymore just for his own personal gain." ([05:46])
The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of the humanitarian crisis and the broader quest for peace, emphasizing that without addressing immediate needs like starvation and hostage situations, long-term peace remains elusive.
2. Trump's Approach to Diplomacy: The Role of Steve Witkoff and Nuclear Rhetoric
A significant portion of the conversation critiques Donald Trump's unconventional methods in handling international diplomacy and conflict resolution.
- Christiane Amanpour critiques Trump's delegation choices:
"We've given the hardest jobs in modern diplomacy to an amateur. An amateur hour is not what the world needs right now." ([11:25])
Trump's decision to deploy Steve Witkoff, a real estate lawyer with no background in international diplomacy, as a negotiator in conflict zones like Gaza and Ukraine is seen as undermining effective peace talks. Additionally, Trump's public threats regarding the movement of nuclear submarines and engagement with figures like Dmitry Medvedev are highlighted as reckless and destabilizing.
- Jamie Rubin comments on the implications of Trump's nuclear rhetoric:
"It's quite scary actually, isn't it, because it's unprecedented for a president to be public about what they're doing." ([13:06])
The hosts agree that such unilateral and aggressive tactics not only fail to foster peace but also heighten global tensions, making diplomatic resolutions more challenging.
3. Lessons from Historical Peace Negotiations: Northern Ireland and Beyond
Transitioning from current events, Amanpour and Rubin draw parallels with successful historical peace negotiations to illustrate what effective diplomacy entails.
- Christiane Amanpour shares insights from the Good Friday Agreement:
"George Mitchell... he was able to hear out all parties, to listen to the Catholic side, to listen to the Protestant side... until he won their trust." ([19:16])
The discussion highlights the importance of dedicated negotiators who invest time in building trust among conflicting parties. They contrast this with the Trump administration's approach, where the absence of experienced diplomats hampers the possibility of meaningful peace agreements.
- Jamie Rubin underscores the necessity of engaging "hard men":
"You can't just say, oh, we're never gonna talk to the hard man... Even in Israel, Palestine, you can't just say... they have to surrender and bend over." ([22:37])
By referencing figures like George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke, the hosts emphasize that successful peace processes require persistent, patient negotiation and the willingness to engage all relevant stakeholders, including those deemed as adversaries.
4. The Weaponization of Trade: Trump's Tariffs and Global Fallout
In the latter part of the episode, Amanpour and Rubin shift focus to the economic arena, critically analyzing how Donald Trump has utilized trade policies as instruments of geopolitical leverage.
- Christiane Amanpour discusses the impact of tariffs:
"Uncertainty and chaos is the worst thing for long term investments and long term decisions that affect our world." ([35:33])
Trump's imposition of tariffs on countries like India, Brazil, Canada, and members of the BRICS group is scrutinized for its detrimental effects on global economies. The hosts argue that while presented as measures for "free and fair trade," these tariffs often serve personal and political agendas, disrupting international relations and harming both American consumers and global partners.
- Jamie Rubin elaborates on specific consequences:
"The car companies are really freaking out because these tariffs are actually hurting... a small business who provides car parts who suddenly has to shut down because the parts that they need to sell are no longer available at a price that they can make... survive." ([37:06])
The episode highlights real-world repercussions, such as increased costs for manufacturers and consumers, leading to economic instability and loss of jobs. Amanpour predicts that these policies will eventually backfire politically, causing electoral repercussions for the Republican Party as voters reassess the tangible impacts of Trump's trade strategies.
5. Predicting the Political Ramifications and Future Outlook
Concluding the episode, the hosts offer their perspectives on the likely future trajectory of U.S. foreign and economic policies under Trump's influence.
- Christiane Amanpour forecasts political shifts:
"Trump's chickens will come home to roost... Democrats will take back the House, and then something's going to change." ([38:45])
They anticipate that mounting economic challenges and failed diplomatic efforts will erode Trump's support base, leading to significant political shifts in upcoming elections. Additionally, they discuss potential legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies, referencing the constitutional limits on executive power in trade matters.
Conclusion
This episode of The Ex Files provides a nuanced exploration of the intersection between individual leadership styles and broader geopolitical outcomes. By juxtaposing historical examples of successful peace negotiations with current U.S. policies under Trump, Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin offer insightful commentary on the prerequisites for lasting peace and the pitfalls of politicizing international relations. The discussion underscores the necessity of experienced diplomacy, the dangers of unilateral decision-making, and the far-reaching consequences of economic weaponization through trade policies.
For listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of today's defining global crises and the intricate mechanisms of international diplomacy, this episode serves as an essential resource, blending expert analysis with real-world examples to illuminate the path toward potential resolutions amidst a fractured global landscape.