← Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
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- [00:03]
A
This is a global production.
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Trump, with a flourish, signed a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, only to then backtrack not even two days later, saying, hold on, this isn't going to happen unless you, Saudi Arabia, join the Abraham Accords.
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A
That won't happen, certainly under this Israeli government.
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Why should the west think that Saudi Arabia is any better bet at nuclear technology than Iran?
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It's a mess. Let's face it, though, the Middle east is a real mess we're in right now. Nuclear proliferation is starting to look like a bigger, bigger and bigger problem than it's ever been before.
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We first ask, have they eaten today? Honestly, it breaks my heart that it really does. Have you eaten today?
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There is a certain unreality to this that you couldn't even make up if you were writing a Hollywood script.
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B
Hi, everyone, it is Christiana Monpour and Jamie Rubin back again with this latest episode of the X Files. And we are going to discuss what really is going on with the Trump Saudi Arabia nuclear deal. Is there one? Isn't there one? What does it all mean? Then we're going to talk about. Trump is seeming to be trapped in this Iran war, not knowing how to get out of it, being even more and ever more frustrated. And now the Houthis. Yep. Yet another group are entering it. They're loosely aligned with Iran. So we'll discuss all of that. Okay, Jamie, you're in New York, I'm in France. And let's just say it is a pretty bad day for climate change. It's been a bad week actually here. Horrible, horrible wildfires which have affected all sorts of holiday makers up and down the Atlantic coast of France and elsewhere. And Bordeaux, which I assume everybody knows at least the name, which is the wine capital, one of the wine capitals of France is really now being threatened with these wildfires. And the French have had to call in help from all over Europe and elsewhere to try to put them out. It's really one of the worst summers ever. What's happening up your end?
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A
We had a bit of fire issue as well. President Trump talked to, said to the world that it was Canada's fault. It's true. There were Canadian wildfires that got out of control and we all experienced unusual, dangerous conditions because of those wildfires across the country. So I think fires are now a new part of our life that people are reading about, learning about, figuring out how to put out, figuring out how to prevent in advance through preventative measures and figuring out how to try to help each other.
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B
Yeah. And again, the French are trying to Learn from Spain, and everybody's trying to learn from everybody else, because it appears to be a pretty major pivot, all these wildfires, which a lot of it is being blamed on uncontrolled climate change. And we can discuss that another time. But we know that this climate change has got to be addressed, has got to be mitigated, and we cannot carry on with Trump or whoever else it is, calling it a scam, calling it a hoax, and just not putting the political weight behind fixing what is, in fact, an existential threat for the human species. And I've just made a little existential threat by kicking the table, so you might have noticed it bouncing, but I'm very fit to be tied over these fires and leaving France and hoping we can, you know, get out without any trouble on the roads or whatever. I don't expect any. But people are worried about all of this. Now, let us get to the first thing that we want to discuss, this episode, and that is the Saudi nuclear deal with the United States. Or is it? Now, I know this has been bubbling for a while, but we want to try to talk around it and what it actually all means. So, Jamie, you know, a few days ago, Trump, with a flourish, signed a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, only to then backtrack not even two days later, saying, hold on, this isn't gonna happen unless you, Saudi Arabia, join the Abraham Accords. So let's first start with, what is this deal and why Saudi Arabia? And did the Biden administration ever think about this?
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A
Well, yes. This is basically picking up an agreement that was mostly worked out by the Biden administration as part of our effort to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In the process, bring Saudi Arabia into the defense arrangement with the United States and provide it nuclear technology in such a way that people were not overly concerned about the risk of proliferation. It's a very, very complicated arrangement. The key to it is that the Saudis are buying American technology, they're buying American nuclear power, and then using American for the foreseeable future and have to wait 10 years if they try to change their mind. So it's one of those nuclear proliferation questions that's always coming up. Saudi Arabia seems determined to get nuclear energy. And the realists say, well, if they're going to get nuclear energy, it's better that they're getting it from the United States, getting American companies to do the business. That's what President Trump, I suspect, is most interested in. And then knowing that the United States will have a finger in the pie and know if there's any, any risk of proliferation.
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B
So according to everything that's been written, it's a deal for civilian nuclear technology, hopefully, obviously. But it does go further than what previous administrations have been talking about. I'm not sure exactly how, but their potential enrichment capabilities are potentially something under this Trump deal bigger than perhaps what Biden and others have thought about.
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A
Well, yes. This agreement envisages a study, as I understand it, for two years to see whether it's necessary for Saudi Arabia to enrich its own fuel. They apparently have a uranium deposit, so that would be useful for them. Remember, nuclear energy. I know some people don't agree with this, but I do is one of the great solutions to climate change. And if we had more nuclear energy around the world, we'd have much less of a problem. So nuclear technology is extremely important that we get it right, that we do it right, and that we make sure that those countries that are doing it are at least doing it in a responsible way. You're right. This Saudi Arabia agreement is not as good as the one that was previously done with the uae, which was called the gold standard because UAE agreed not to enrich uranium at all, even to a low level. And this one envisages that possibility. Again, the, the people that follow this closely say Saudi Arabia is going to get nuclear technology, better that it's American, better that we are involved, better that we make sure that they don't move from a civilian to a military program by being involved. And there is this sort of black box idea that the United States will have an involvement in it, sufficient to know if anything is going in the wrong direction.
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B
So there's a lot of questions. Obviously, the first, just like with Iran, people would say, hang on, how do these oil producing nations suddenly decide that they want to be environmentally responsible or diversify their energy supplies and capabilities? So why should Saudi need it? Why should the UAE need it?
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Well, they don't need it. They obviously have oil and they could use oil. But nuclear technology, again, I need to say this is not by itself a bad thing. The more nuclear energy that is used,
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the question is why do they need it? And let's face it, they haven't exactly been great stewards of climate change. We had the last climate cop, last but one in the uae, and it was a debacle.
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A
Well, right, it was a debacle. Not because of the UAE as much as it's because of the countries involved who wouldn't agree to reduce their, their, their levels. Look, we've got big problems with Climate change. I'm not dismissing that. I'm just pointing out that countries are going to try to make use of nuclear energy, and nuclear energy is a good thing. And in the Saudi mind, they have to figure out a way for the future to have a country that can both take care of its own energy needs and still be able to export oil. So there are no great stewards of our economy, of our ecological future. I'm not saying that. I'm just pointing out that they're going to get nuclear technology. They're an advanced country, and if they don't buy it from the United States, I suspect they'll buy it from someone else. And I certainly would prefer that it's not the Chinese.
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B
Now, as you know, those who don't agree with Saudi Arabia's politics, although Saudi Arabia is a US Ally, there are many people who have a lot of problems with Saudi Arabia. So why should the west think that Saudi Arabia is any better bet at nuclear technology than Iran, which is also under huge. Well, I mean, we'll talk about the war in a minute, but Iran has, you know, didn't do 9, 11, obviously. Why should people feel more confident with Saudi Arabia having nuclear technology?
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A
Well, again, I'm not comfortable and confident that everything is perfect here. What I'm comfortable with is that these are real world decisions that governments have to make. Frankly, I don't know that we're ever going to get to this agreement because as you pointed out, President Trump immediately said that this agreement won't be implemented unless Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations. That won't happen certainly under this Israeli government or any that I can see right now, unless there's a path to a Palestinian state. And so the whole agreement's in question. But assuming that it's an aspiration rather than a prerequisite, which is possible, you know, a year from now, President Trump may decide to let it go forward without normalization. I don't know. I'm just pointing that out. We have to look at the facts. And the facts are that Saudi Arabia wants nuclear energy. They want to have it for their own reasons. And we need to make sure that if they have it, the best possible controls are placed on it. I don't believe any administration wants Saudi Arabia to go nuclear. They've made clear that they will go towards nuclear weapons if Iran gets a nuclear weapon. So these are real problems. And down the road, yes, I would be worried that both Saudi Arabia and Iran are trying to move towards nuclear weapons.
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B
And talking on the Israel side, of course, One of the big, you know, unspoken secrets is that Israel has, according to the New York Times and others, something like 100 bombs worth of nuclear bombs. That's what they have, a stockpile. And they are not at all in the npt. They don't have the iaea, in other words, the UN watchdog agency inspecting. Nor do some of the other nuclear powers apparently, nor, I don't know, correct me if I'm wrong, but Pakistan and India surprise the world by doing their first nuclear tests and then becoming nuclear powers. I'm not sure that they're in the npt. And what do we think that's going to happen with Saudi Arabia? Will it be in the npt? Let's say if Israel isn't, Yes, I
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A
think it is going to be part of the non Proliferation Treaty. But and this is a good question you're asking, there are these additional protocols to the NPT which are designed to have anytime anywhere inspections. That was one of the factors that was built into the agreement the United States and Europe made with Iran when we had the Obama era agreement so that you could go anywhere at any time and inspect. Because nuclear weapons and nuclear technology and the actual nuclear process is very hard to hide because it's easily discoverable through radioactivity. So Saudi Arabia has apparently said it won't be part of this additional protocol.
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B
Tell me how difficult it is that India and Pakistan aren't part of all of this either. The proper safe.
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A
Well, it's just the point is that the nuclear proliferation is starting to look like a bigger, bigger and bigger and problem than it's ever been before. Not only are there no arms control agreements between the United States and Russia, the last one President Trump got out of, but you have North Korea having a nuclear program and showing the world that because of its nuclear program nobody's attacking it. Which is one of the reasons I think we may discover there's going to be a bigger and bigger view inside Iran that they need to move towards a nuclear weapon. All of the signs are that countries like South Korea, like Poland, others are starting to say, wait a minute, the United States nuclear guarantee, which kept the world safe to the extent there were no major wars in Europe and Asia, is not looking as guaranteed as it used to. The United States is not as reliable as it used to be. So all of these factors put together make this a world in which nuclear proliferation becomes a much bigger problem.
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B
Listen, cast your mind back because I remember this. When India did a test, it was under the bi, sorry, the Clinton administration and you were in the State Department remind people what it was like when you heard about it, when this thing happened.
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A
It was a big surprise. The United States had sent a team over to talk to the Indians. The Indians didn't. I mean, I don't know what the right word is, but they certainly misled the team in saying that they had no intentions. And then suddenly, a nuclear explosion went off. It was considered a major intelligence failure. I remember getting a call in the middle of the night about it. And we had no preparation, no advanced knowledge. And, of course, you know, as spokesman of the State Department, you don't like to have people write that the United States is taken by surprise. But of course, we were taken by surprise. And it was a major issue and took a long time for the sanctions that were put on India to be removed and the relationship to be put back on track.
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B
Why do you think, before we talk about Iran in more depth, why do you think President Trump, with a flourish, announced this deal and then very shortly thereafter walked it back? I mean, just very suddenly?
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A
President Trump likes agreements that make American companies make money. This is tens of billions of dollars worth of nuclear energy technology. One of the ironies, however, is, if I understand it correctly, the underlying owning company of Westinghouse that is going to do these reactors is a Canadian company of all countries. And when that becomes known, I wonder what's going to happen or become understood more widely. So, one, I think he wants to do business. Number two, the Israelis thought that a Saudi nuclear weapon risk was very, very low and that even if they went towards nuclear energy, the risk was very, very low, especially if they were normalizing relations with Israel. So Israel didn't like this announcement. I suspect they called President Trump. I suspect he then made the link to the Abraham Accords, meaning that Saudi Arabia needs to change its politics about Israel and become one of the countries that recognizes Israel before this agreement can come into fruition. I don't know whether that will end up being his final position or not. That was something that the Biden administration envisaged as part of bringing Saudi Arabia into the regional countries that recognize Israel. Part of our defense arrangements, part of the ways to deter Iran back then. And so we'll have to see what happens. But all of these whys or questions that only President Trump knows, I'm guessing it was for money, business, and then the Israelis didn't like it. So he's putting a question mark over the agreement that he can change his mind about whenever he wants to, because that's the way he does business.
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B
Yeah. And as I think it was David Sanger, somebody in the New York Times said, well, you know, he delighted Netanyahu, he stunned mbs, and he gave the Iranians yet another perfect, you know, sort of way to say, see you do a deal with Trump or the Americans, and they never hold it. So all is a bit scatty, as, as ever. We're going to talk a little bit more about Iran in a moment, and particularly will they, what, what, what message will they take from this whole nuclear thing shaping out, given that there's no deal on the horizon with the United States? Jamie, we're going to keep talking about Iran because the, and, and all the other factors that have come in over these last few days into this war. But one of the things that I read was that the US Intelligence has apparently told Trump that there seems to be a higher possibility that the new Ayatollah Khamenei Mujtaba, the son, might be more predisposed to go on the nuclear weapons track, whereas his father, as we know, put out the. This fatwa to say no nuclear weapons. So, I don't know, that seems a little bit worrying given that there's apparently no diplomacy happening right now on any track, whether it's the Strait of Hormuz or the nuclear issue. And the war is still going on, although Trump sort of paused it for a couple of days.
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A
Look, I think there is a debate that will go on inside the Iranian government intensely for a long, long time over whether they made a mistake by not actually going forward and building a nuclear weapon, which they could have done. People need to realize this. Over the last 15 years or so, they did not pursue an actual nuclear weapon. They considered it. They built certain aspects of a program, and then they stopped it in the early 2000s. Then they wanted to become what you would call a threshold state. They wanted to have the ability to become a nuclear weapon state and show the world that as a deterrent. That obviously didn't deter anybody because the war has brought home to them. That was not a very good deterrent. So I think they're gonna think about this, think about it a lot harder. People used to make a joke about the father, the dead, Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa and say, well, it doesn't mean anything. It actually did mean something in their society. They had made a decision not to do it. Now, if the new government, led by the son and driven by the Republican, sorry, the Revolutionary Guards, decide to go nuclear to protect themselves, it's going to be a really tricky prospect, and that's why you need diplomacy right now. Their program has been damaged and there is no enrichment going on, as far as we know. But if they decided to go for a covert program, it might be something that they could pull off over a long period of time without the world knowing. It's possible. Israel has very good sources inside Iran. So does the United States have ability to monitor. But the only real effective monitor is to have the IAEA inspectors inspecting, and that won't happen until we get diplomacy done.
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B
Well, diplomacy looks like it's a long way off, Jamie. This whole ceasefire, as we know that was last month and sort of stabilized for a bit. Okay. It only lasted about two weeks, but oil prices started to come down. People thought that maybe this is the beginning of the. Of trying to get somewhere different than at war. It's back on. I mean, last week it was every day. Then Trump did another threat to wipe out everything. I mean, I'm paraphrasing, but infrastructure and all those other things as he had before. And then all of a sudden, he's kind of gone quiet on this over the last couple of days. Apparently his advisors and everybody, they've all been discussing what their options are, and none of them look very good. And he's being described, Trump, as being increasingly frustrated because the power he has had up to now, using executive orders and just basically being Donald Trump, President of the United States, has hit a brick wall when it comes to dealing with the Iranians. And he doesn't, they say, know how to get out of this. So just on the top of your head, what do you think? Where do you think we are right now? And then I'll read some of these options that he's looking at.
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A
Apparently, yeah, I scratched my head because it is a head scratch of why the administration thinks that this Iranian government is suddenly going to capitulate and give up after taking these weeks and weeks of bombing, surviving. Why they think they're just going to give up all their positions on nuclear weapons on the Strait of Hormuz and all these other things. I don't understand it. The Iranian government, as you know, is run by people who believe in revolutionary Islam. They believe in. They are in a struggle forever. So for them to have a more permanent state of war going on is not as difficult for them to imagine as it is for the United States to imagine. And President Trump, as you know, made a big point of saying he wouldn't get us into one of these forever wars. Whether this is A forever war or not, it certainly feels like it's a war without a solution right now, because we're nowhere.
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B
Before I get to some of the Trump considerations, talking about no solution, talking about Saudi Arabia, as we did the Houthis, which are a Shiite Yemeni faction which control North Yemen and are fighting the internationally recognized Yemeni government and have been doing so since, I think approximately 2014. I hope I don't have that wrong. But nonetheless, and the Saudis have been trying to fight them and bring them to heel. That has failed. And Saudi Arabia, with all this closure of the Strait of Hormuz and all this other stuff, Jamie, you know, built this pipe, had a pipe that led from east to west into the Red Sea. And all was going to be great for Saudi Arabia shipping its oil as long as Bab el Mandab, the strategic meeting point of the seas, right next to Saudi Arabia and Yemen remain open. Apparently the Houthis are now threatening that. Where do you think this is going to lead? Now? The Houthis, they're not agents of Iran. They have allied themselves with Iran over certain things. Iran has influence, but they also known to, you know, really consider their own national security and their own interests. So you've got Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and then the bigger United States conundrum about ending these choke points. Points.
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A
Right. It's a mess, let's face it. The Middle east is a real mess we're in right now. The Houthis aren't directly going to do exactly what Iran wants, but I'm sure Iran is quite pleased that the Houthis are now making it even harder for the world economy to get back on track. This is what President Trump presumably cares about because his numbers are phenomenally low. I mean, we've never really seen, seen political numbers like this. There's great fear in the Republican Party about the enthusiasm gap, namely that even those who are Republicans aren't going to vote because they're so unhappy and nobody has the ability to dictate to the Houthis, they're again a revolutionary style regime, a resistance style regime. They're part of the axis of resistance. And Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been fighting. We'll see whether Saudi Arabia has the stomach for it, too, because the Houthis can do real damage to the Saudi oil capabilities. And Saudi Arabia presumably cares about getting its own oil out there. Now they're talking about using the Suez Canal as the third possible option and that there will always be a way for oil to get out, but it's not getting out in an organized way. And businesses are suffering all over the world and prices are reflecting that and it can't be good news for any politician.
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B
No. And as you say, prices, oil sort of started to come down now they've gone up again, they've gone down a bit since Trump said or refrained from doing the all out restart of war against Iran. But this is all going to, you know, it's not resolved and as you said, very, very unpopular in the United States. Some of the options that they were discussing, according to reports, is either, you know, another full scale but also really hitting infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, which apparently he's been advised.
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A
It's getting a little warm here, everyone. I'm taking my coat off.
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B
You do that. While we talk about heating up. I was going to say it's, it is summer. I know it's only 7 o' clock where you are, but wearing a coat, I was quite impressed. I'm thinking I'm just in my little summer shirt.
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A
Okay, I'm back to a shirt.
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B
You don't have great big sweat stains. So that's fine. It's only 7, it's only 7am Good to know in the United States, but let us just get back to being serious. So either back to high intensity, that would really affect the people. And I've been, you know, reading some of the excellent coverage, certainly by the New York Times, who's so plugged in in Iran, people are, are desperate. People in the south where a lot of this bombing has been taking place, you know, bridges and water plants and civilian infrastructure, they are hot, they need water. Their electricity is either non existent or in and out. They have no air conditioning. People in Tehran are having a real problem. They're saying, you know, this is Tehran, the capital. They're saying, you know, even under the worst sanctions, we never had it this bad. These days we don't, you know, greet our friends or families by asking them how the, how they're doing under the war. We first ask, have they eaten today? Honestly, it breaks my heart that it really does. Have you eaten today? It's really, it's, it's a tragedy. But you just never know because Marco Rubio is quoted also as saying, you know, Trump doesn't think that the Iranians have felt enough pain. And Rubio says the United States could pursue a strategy of ahead for an eye, I guess, whatever that means. It could keep doing this, total infrastructure. But that's apparently not being advised. It could put boots on the ground, on hog island and elsewhere. But that would be huge numbers of troops, huge amount of vessels and infrastructure to get them there and to keep them there. It could begin, according to some, to target senior Iranian leaders. Again, Jamie, there was an extraordinary article in the Guardian that actually my sister told me about, and I quickly read it. The current leader of the negotiations, the Foreign Minister, Abbas Arachi, told the Guardian. I was actually told an Iranian reporter, and it was picked up by the Guardian that he too had been caught up in day one assassination of all the leadership. He wasn't quite in the main building, but they were having separate meetings and he reported that he had had to be dug out of the rubble. And, and he and friends or people, colleagues or whatever, dug themselves out, helped each other out and tried to, you know, rush out of the building. Then he hid out, he says, in his car until he was found and taken to the Foreign Ministry. I mean, it's really a hair raising story, but it does, doesn't it, Jamie? You sort of go back to desperation tactics and Israel, you know, wanting to do these assassinations. And I think Trump told them, don't assassinate the negotiators because we still need that option.
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A
Yeah. There is a certain unreality to this that you couldn't even make up if you were writing a Hollywood script. To think that this regime, after all that's been done to it, is suddenly going to make nice with the United States. And that seems to be what Marco Rubio and President Trump think. I don't see the logic of it. I'm talking analytically. I just don't see them doing that. So at some point, President Trump's gonna have to make a decision. Is he going to escalate or is he going to declare victory and find some solution, like the memorandum of understanding that caused the ceasefire that allowed the Strait of Hormuz to be opened some weeks ago? It's going to look like that. That's where I think we're heading. Because there's no military solution to the problems that President Trump has identified. And the Iranians are not going to suddenly capitulate because of all the reasons that we've talked about. They are part of a resistance movement. The regime is, is even more hardline, arguably now than it was before. So we're stuck. That's why President Trump is having such a tough time, because there is no obvious solution. And I have to say, as someone who's observed American foreign policy for a long time, this has to be the least popular of any use of force that I can Think of certainly in the early days, and it looks to be one of the great mistakes of America in the modern era.
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B
We're going to discuss that at another date because America seems to be making itself in this regard on the global stage. Kind of weaker, not stronger. Just to your point about that, the Iran experts, Ray Takier and Royal Marc Direct, who you know very well have written in the Wall Street Journal, Tehran has a wartime advantage over Washington because the ruling Iranian elite wants to fight and has been willing to endure far more pain than Donald Trump.
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A
Trump.
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B
Rubio also, though, said they're probably not ready to do a deal yet, but they will be soon because the price they're paying is very high, despite their tough talk and their flowery language. So there are two different sides of this story that we're trying to. To figure out. Okay, well, we still haven't solved the Iran war. It's still no.
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A
And we. And we won't be solving it anytime soon, I don't think.
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B
No. Okay, Jamie, fun part recommendations. It's always nice because we can get away from some of the really gritty, kind of hopeless stuff to focusing on things that both of us think are hopeful, hopefully. How many hopes did I just insert into that sentence?
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A
I don't know about hope, but the movie that I'm gonna recommend has its some aspects of hope, but it just reminded me of how they can still make great movies. It was called the Invite, and it's made directed by Olivia Wilde, but has in it as well, Penelope Cruz, her Seth Rogen and Ed Norton, the four characters. And it's really like a play, like a great play, but because the actors and the dialogue are so good. It really was terrific. And I recommend it as an absolute proper movie for a good laugh and a good think about America and about married life and all of the big questions that people face.
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B
Yeah, it. It definitely was about married life. And I think that's kind of funny given that we were once married and they're not exes yet, this lot. They're not exes, but it's really. It's really very, very interesting about. About that aspect of relationships. Really, really good. And the characters are all fantastic. So mine is a documentary, and it's called Steal this Story, Please. It's about the wonderful journalist Amy Goodman, who's about as independent as one can imagine in this world of American journalism. And I have to say, it's in. It's in movie theaters now. I'm hoping to interview Amy and the director. It's just good. It's a hark back to good old fashioned journalism and really sort of the shoe leather journalism that refuses to remain silent, refuses to look the other direction and just goes after big and small powerful people to ask them the questions about what's going on. So Trump officials before that, other administration officials also focusing very much on people who cannot tell their own stories on big platforms and need a voice to help them out. And I just was very energized by it. She has a program called Democracy Now. It's a radio program, but it's also has, you know, video elements of it. Probably it's on it is probably video now, but it's it's been going for years. And she's just a great old fashioned journalist who says that her desire to really get down into the nitty gritty was formed by her grandparents and her parents and her Jewish tradition of asking questions that I can get behind. Really good. So I highly recommend it. Jamie. I know that you'd like it. It's really, really good.
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A
I will watch it.
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B
That's it from us for now. Thanks for watching the X Files with me and Jamie. And don't forget, you can always listen for free on global player and you can always watch by subscribing to our YouTube channel. You just search Christian Amanpour presents the X Files. And of course, we're going to be back later this week, Thursday with our regular Q and A episode. So for now, goodbye from France before
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A
I get singed and goodbye from New York. This has been a global production.