183. Mic Drop: Moore’s Law now applies to space

Summary

Click Here Podcast Episode 183: "Mic Drop: Moore’s Law Now Applies to Space"

Release Date: November 15, 2024
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Ed Liu, former NASA astronaut and CTO of LeoLabs

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Introduction

In episode 183 of Click Here, host Dina Temple-Raston explores an intriguing evolution of a foundational principle in technology—Moore’s Law—and its unexpected application beyond computing. Titled "Mic Drop: Moore’s Law Now Applies to Space," this episode delves into how the exponential growth predicted by Moore’s Law is now shaping the space industry, particularly in the realm of satellite launches and space object tracking.

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Understanding Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law originated in the 1970s when Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years. This insight not only revolutionized computing but also paved the way for the miniaturization and enhanced performance of electronic devices.

Gordon Moore reflected on his origins, sharing a personal anecdote:
“Being interested in chemistry happened when my next door neighbor got a chemistry set when I was about 11 years old.”
— Gordon Moore [04:47]

His passion for building and experimentation led him to co-found Intel, where his predictions about the growth of chip complexity and capabilities largely held true:
“And amazingly enough, that 10 doublings in complexity that I predicted turned out to be nine doublings, actually pretty close.”
— Gordon Moore [05:47]

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Moore’s Law Extending into Space

Ed Liu, a former NASA astronaut with over 206 days in space and a co-founder of LeoLabs, posits that Moore’s Law is now influencing the space sector similarly to how it did computing. This manifests not just in smaller and more affordable satellites but also in the exponential increase in satellite launches.

“If you look at the annual rate at which satellites are launched into space, it has been doubling every two years.”
— Ed Liu [01:19]

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Ed Liu and LeoLabs: Pioneering Space Object Tracking

After retiring from NASA in 2007, Ed Liu founded LeoLabs, a company dedicated to tracking objects in low Earth orbit (LEO), approximately 1,200 miles above the Earth. Given the surge in satellite deployments, LeoLabs plays a crucial role in monitoring not just operational satellites but also space debris and asteroids.

“The hard part is finding and tracking all these asteroids much more difficult. Because if you think about it, if 1,000,000th of 1% change in velocity of an asteroid makes an asteroid slightly miss the Earth or hit the Earth, that means I need to measure its velocity accurate to one millionth of 1% to even know if it's going to hit.”
— Ed Liu [03:15]

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Exponential Growth of Satellite Launches

The satellite launch rate has mirrored Moore’s Law, doubling every two years. Ed Liu highlights the dramatic increase in satellites:

“So the rate that there was in 2020, the number of satellites launched is double by 2022. In 2022, there was something a little under 2,000 satellites launched roughly in 2022 this year. In 2024, there'll be almost 4,000 satellites. Whatever is happening today in two years will be twice as much. And in four years will be four times as much. And in six years, it will be eight times as much. This is a crazy growth rate.”
— Ed Liu [03:51]

This surge has transformed what was once a sparsely populated orbit to a congested space environment, complicating space operations and increasing collision risks.

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International Space Race and Mega Constellations

The democratization of space technology means that not only traditional spacefaring nations but also emerging countries like Costa Rica, Kenya, Paraguay, and the United Arab Emirates are establishing space agencies and launching satellites. A significant development is China's ambitious G60 mega constellation, aiming to rival Elon Musk's Starlink by deploying nearly 14,000 satellites by 2030 to provide global internet and mobile connectivity.

Starlink itself has scaled rapidly, now averaging a satellite launch every four days. This competition intensifies the need for effective space management and collision avoidance strategies.

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Challenges and the Need for Regulation

As the number of satellites and space debris increases exponentially, the challenges of regulation and management become more pronounced. Ed Liu emphasizes the difficulty of keeping regulatory frameworks up to pace with such rapid growth:

“How does regulation keep up with something that doubles every two years? How do we scale our ability to track twice as many objects in two years and twice as many again and twice as many again? And because that's what's happening.”
— Ed Liu [09:23]

He advocates for:

• Better Tracking of Debris: Enhancing the capabilities to monitor and track space objects to prevent collisions.
• Reducing Debris Creation: Implementing measures to minimize the release of space debris from satellites and rockets.
• Improved Monitoring and Notification Systems: Developing faster and more efficient systems to detect and respond to potential threats in space.

Ed Liu warns that without proactive measures, the congested space environment could pose significant risks to both current and future space endeavors.

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Conclusion

Episode 183 of Click Here presents a compelling narrative on how Moore’s Law, a principle that revolutionized computing, is now shaping the dynamics of space exploration and utilization. Through insightful discussions with Ed Liu, the episode highlights the rapid proliferation of satellites, the resultant challenges, and the urgent need for effective regulation and management to safeguard our increasingly crowded orbital environment.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you get into a verbal cul de sac or if I ask you a question that doesn't make any sense, you can just say, hey, Dina, I have no idea what you're talking about, or let me start again.”
  — Dina Temple-Raston [00:06]

• “I don't think society learns its lessons like that. You know, and any new technology has, you know, enormous pluses and minuses.”
  — Ed Liu [08:15]

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This episode offers valuable insights for listeners interested in the intersection of technology, space, and policy, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future trajectory of space commercialization and regulation.

Transcript

[PRX]

From prx.

[Dina Temple Raston]

If you get into a verbal cul de sac or if I ask you a question that doesn't make any sense, you can just say, hey, Dina, I have no idea what you're talking about, or let me start again.

[Ed Liu]

And through the magic of editing, it disappears.

[Dena Temple Raston]

It's more than magic. From Recorded Future news, I'm Dena Temple Raston and this is Click Here's Mic Drop, an extended cut of an interview we think you might want to hear a little more of. For decades, the growth of the computer industry has been guided by something known as Moore's Law. Basically, it was a prediction. Back in the 1970s, a man named Gordon Moore said that the number of tiny circuits and transistors on a chip would double every two years. Moore's Law is the reason we went from room sized computers to to the ones we carry in our pockets. And it set the stage for all the electronics we use to get smaller, faster and less expensive. But it turns out Moore's Law has other applications. Former NASA astronaut Ed Liu says Moore's Law is making its presence felt in space, not just with smaller, less expensive satellites, but with the sheer number of satellite launches we're now seeing.

[Ed Liu]

If you look at the annual rate at which satellites are launched into space, it has been doubling every two years.

[Dena Temple Raston]

And he explains what we need to do to try to deal with that. We'll be right back.

[Tim Harford]

Do nice guys really finish last? I'm Tim Harford, host of the Cautionary Tales podcast and I'm exploring that very question. Join me for my new miniseries on the art of fairness. From New York to Tahiti, we'll examine villains undone by their villainy, monst, self devouring egos and accounts of the extraordinary power of decency. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Dena Temple Raston]

I'm Dena Temple Rost and this is Click. Here's Mike Draw. Ed Liu has spent more than 206 days in space. Between 1997 and 2003, he flew three space missions and was one of the astronauts living on the International Space Station.

[Ed Liu]

Good evening and greetings from the International Space Station.

[Dena Temple Raston]

This is a video Ed recorded from space. He's in a blue space suit, half standing, half floating in one of the International Space Station's Bays.

[Ed Liu]

I'm Expedition 7 Flight Engineer and NASA science officer Ed Liu orbiting the earth at an altitude of 240 statute miles.

[Dena Temple Raston]

He retired in 2007 and now he's the co founder and chief technology officer of a company called LeoLabs. It tracks objects in space, typically things in low Earth orbit about 1200 miles into the atmosphere. And it isn't just satellites that he's watching.

[Ed Liu]

The hard part is finding and tracking all these asteroids much more difficult. Because if you think about it, if 1,000,000th of 1% change in velocity of an asteroid makes an asteroid slightly miss the Earth or hit the Earth, that means I need to measure its velocity accurate to one millionth of 1% to even know if it's going to hit.

[Dena Temple Raston]

Until about 10 years ago, there were relatively few things in the low Earth orbit. But these days, thanks to the Moore's law of launches, it's getting pretty crowded.

[Ed Liu]

So the rate that there was in 2020, the number of satellites launched is double by 2022. In 2022, there was something a little under 2,000 satellites launched roughly in 2022 this year. In 2024, there'll be almost 4,000 satellites. Whatever is happening today in two years will be twice as much. And in four years will be four times as much. And in six years, it will be eight times as much. This is a crazy growth rate.

[Dena Temple Raston]

Gordon Moore, the person who anticipated this crazy growth rate in all things tech, was actually a pretty unassuming guy. He wasn't a computer nerd, at least initially. He actually started out as a chemist.

[Gordon Moore]

Being interested in chemistry happened when my next door neighbor got a chemistry set when I was about 11 years old.

[Dena Temple Raston]

This is Gordon Moore talking about it at a computer history museum event celebrating the 40th anniversary of Moore's Law. That was back in 2005.

[Gordon Moore]

Those days you get some really neat stuff in them and you can't get the stuff anymore, right?

[Dena Temple Raston]

And Moore said he got really interested in what he called the bangs and the smokes of chemistry. In other words, he built explosives, finally.

[Gordon Moore]

Culminating and turning out small production quantities of nitroglycerin, which are made into dynamite. A couple ounces of dynamite makes an absolutely fantastic firecracker.

[Dena Temple Raston]

Moore went on to co found one of the world's biggest chip makers, Intel. And his prediction about how chips were going to just keep getting smaller, faster and smarter pretty much held.

[Gordon Moore]

And amazingly enough, that 10 doublings in complexity that I predicted turned out to be nine doublings, actually pretty close. Much closer than it had any basis to be. But it got the name Moore's Law, which has stuck there. Everything that changes exponentially ever since.

[Dena Temple Raston]

While that exponential growth in computing power, Moore predicted, has helped fuel the latest revolution in tech, Ed Liu says it's making the space Race pretty complicated.

[Ed Liu]

So what that means is that for any country, any company, any scientific research, you need to be thinking about two year development timescales. Things change. You can't make a plan for cell phones that says, oh, you know, hey, in 10 years we're going to develop this. Because you don't know what things are going to be like in 10 years. That would be crazy, right?

[Dena Temple Raston]

When Ed started Leo Labs eight years ago, there were about 1400 satellites buzzing the earth. Now it's close to 10,000.

[Ed Liu]

Things are, are moving fast.

[Dena Temple Raston]

And it isn't just traditional space powers weighing in anymore. Countries like Costa Rica, Kenya, Paraguay and the United Arab Emirates have all started space agencies and are launching satellites. And now China is going all in on space. This past August it launched the G60 mega constellation. It's a satellite project that Beijing says will rival Elon Musk's Starlink system. The Chinese plan is to launch almost 14,000 satellites by 2030. And it's all meant to try to provide Internet, direct mobile connections and E commerce to people around the world. And Starlink these days, it alone averages a satellite launch every four days.

[Dina Temple Raston]

You know, I think it's really interesting that the space conversation is happening now. I know you probably think it's late, but to a regular person, you know, if we look at the Internet, it, when it was created, nobody ever thought about bad people using it, right? I think you could say probably the same thing about social media. Do you think that we're making the same mistake when it comes to space? Or do you think that we've kind of learned our lesson and we're trying.

[Dena Temple Raston]

To get ahead of this?

[Ed Liu]

I don't think society learns its lessons like that. You know, and any new technology has, you know, enormous pluses and minuses. Right? And it's a mistake to think that, you know, suddenly, you know, we were dumb then and now we're smart. We'll never make this mistake again, right? That's, that's not true. Just like everything else, something will be growing like crazy. But only a small fraction of the society realizes this and understands the significance of this great change. Right? I think the majority of the population in the mid-1990s did not realize the significance of the growth of the Internet. Majority of people did not realize the significance of the rise of cell phones in the mid-2000s. What would happen to society? Same thing's happening in space right now. Enormous changes are afoot. Some people realize what's coming. Most of the people do not.

[Dina Temple Raston]

And do you think regulation can help this?

[Ed Liu]

How does regulation keep up with something that doubles every two years? How do we scale our ability to track twice as many objects in two years and twice as many again and twice as many again? And because that's what's happening. If I was an astronaut today, I'd be saying, hey, is this a risk we can reduce? The answer to that is yes. Is this risk we can avoid, making it larger? The answer to that is yes. And those are the things that I think need to happen. Better tracking of debris, less creation of debris, better monitoring of what's going on up there, faster notifications. Those are the things that will make a difference.

[Dena Temple Raston]

From Recorded Future News this has been Click Here's Mic Drop. It was written and produced by Megan Dietrich, Lucas Riley, Sean Powers, Jade Abdul Malik, Erica Gaida and me, Tina Temple. Rest it was edited by Karen Duffin. We'll be back on Tuesday with an all new episode of Click Here. Have a great weekend.

[Recorded Future News]

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