Click Here Podcast Episode 183: "Mic Drop: Moore’s Law Now Applies to Space"

Release Date: November 15, 2024
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Ed Liu, former NASA astronaut and CTO of LeoLabs

Introduction

In episode 183 of Click Here, host Dina Temple-Raston explores an intriguing evolution of a foundational principle in technology—Moore’s Law—and its unexpected application beyond computing. Titled "Mic Drop: Moore’s Law Now Applies to Space," this episode delves into how the exponential growth predicted by Moore’s Law is now shaping the space industry, particularly in the realm of satellite launches and space object tracking.

Understanding Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law originated in the 1970s when Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years. This insight not only revolutionized computing but also paved the way for the miniaturization and enhanced performance of electronic devices.

Gordon Moore reflected on his origins, sharing a personal anecdote:
“Being interested in chemistry happened when my next door neighbor got a chemistry set when I was about 11 years old.”
— Gordon Moore [04:47]

His passion for building and experimentation led him to co-found Intel, where his predictions about the growth of chip complexity and capabilities largely held true:
“And amazingly enough, that 10 doublings in complexity that I predicted turned out to be nine doublings, actually pretty close.”
— Gordon Moore [05:47]

Moore’s Law Extending into Space

Ed Liu, a former NASA astronaut with over 206 days in space and a co-founder of LeoLabs, posits that Moore’s Law is now influencing the space sector similarly to how it did computing. This manifests not just in smaller and more affordable satellites but also in the exponential increase in satellite launches.

“If you look at the annual rate at which satellites are launched into space, it has been doubling every two years.”
— Ed Liu [01:19]

Ed Liu and LeoLabs: Pioneering Space Object Tracking

After retiring from NASA in 2007, Ed Liu founded LeoLabs, a company dedicated to tracking objects in low Earth orbit (LEO), approximately 1,200 miles above the Earth. Given the surge in satellite deployments, LeoLabs plays a crucial role in monitoring not just operational satellites but also space debris and asteroids.

“The hard part is finding and tracking all these asteroids much more difficult. Because if you think about it, if 1,000,000th of 1% change in velocity of an asteroid makes an asteroid slightly miss the Earth or hit the Earth, that means I need to measure its velocity accurate to one millionth of 1% to even know if it's going to hit.”
— Ed Liu [03:15]

Exponential Growth of Satellite Launches

The satellite launch rate has mirrored Moore’s Law, doubling every two years. Ed Liu highlights the dramatic increase in satellites:

“So the rate that there was in 2020, the number of satellites launched is double by 2022. In 2022, there was something a little under 2,000 satellites launched roughly in 2022 this year. In 2024, there'll be almost 4,000 satellites. Whatever is happening today in two years will be twice as much. And in four years will be four times as much. And in six years, it will be eight times as much. This is a crazy growth rate.”
— Ed Liu [03:51]

This surge has transformed what was once a sparsely populated orbit to a congested space environment, complicating space operations and increasing collision risks.

International Space Race and Mega Constellations

The democratization of space technology means that not only traditional spacefaring nations but also emerging countries like Costa Rica, Kenya, Paraguay, and the United Arab Emirates are establishing space agencies and launching satellites. A significant development is China's ambitious G60 mega constellation, aiming to rival Elon Musk's Starlink by deploying nearly 14,000 satellites by 2030 to provide global internet and mobile connectivity.

Starlink itself has scaled rapidly, now averaging a satellite launch every four days. This competition intensifies the need for effective space management and collision avoidance strategies.

Challenges and the Need for Regulation

As the number of satellites and space debris increases exponentially, the challenges of regulation and management become more pronounced. Ed Liu emphasizes the difficulty of keeping regulatory frameworks up to pace with such rapid growth:

“How does regulation keep up with something that doubles every two years? How do we scale our ability to track twice as many objects in two years and twice as many again and twice as many again? And because that's what's happening.”
— Ed Liu [09:23]

He advocates for:

• Better Tracking of Debris: Enhancing the capabilities to monitor and track space objects to prevent collisions.
• Reducing Debris Creation: Implementing measures to minimize the release of space debris from satellites and rockets.
• Improved Monitoring and Notification Systems: Developing faster and more efficient systems to detect and respond to potential threats in space.

Ed Liu warns that without proactive measures, the congested space environment could pose significant risks to both current and future space endeavors.

Conclusion

Episode 183 of Click Here presents a compelling narrative on how Moore’s Law, a principle that revolutionized computing, is now shaping the dynamics of space exploration and utilization. Through insightful discussions with Ed Liu, the episode highlights the rapid proliferation of satellites, the resultant challenges, and the urgent need for effective regulation and management to safeguard our increasingly crowded orbital environment.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you get into a verbal cul de sac or if I ask you a question that doesn't make any sense, you can just say, hey, Dina, I have no idea what you're talking about, or let me start again.”
  — Dina Temple-Raston [00:06]

• “I don't think society learns its lessons like that. You know, and any new technology has, you know, enormous pluses and minuses.”
  — Ed Liu [08:15]

This episode offers valuable insights for listeners interested in the intersection of technology, space, and policy, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future trajectory of space commercialization and regulation.