185. Mic Drop: Evelyn Farkas on Ukraine: ‘Don’t count them out’

Summary

Podcast Summary: Click Here – Episode 185. Mic Drop: Evelyn Farkas on Ukraine: ‘Don’t count them out’

Release Date: November 22, 2024
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute

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Introduction to Evelyn Farkas and Context

In Episode 185 of Click Here, host Dina Temple-Raston engages in a compelling conversation with Evelyn Farkas, the Executive Director of the McCain Institute. Farkas, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in defense and international relations, shares her recent observations and insights from her latest visit to Ukraine, occurring just a week prior to the interview (00:10). Farkas’s background includes serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia during the Obama administration, as well as acting as a senior advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Her deep involvement in Ukrainian affairs since the early 1990s provides a well-informed perspective on the ongoing conflict and Ukraine's strategic position.

Current State of the War in Ukraine

Farkas paints a grim picture of the current situation in Ukraine, highlighting the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people despite the continuous strain of over a thousand days of conflict (00:44). She emphasizes Ukraine's unwavering commitment to sovereignty, democratic values, and aspirations to join the European Union (EU) and NATO.

"The Ukrainian people remain determined to stand up for their sovereignty. They remain determined to become members of the European Union and have a better economic system and more prosperity, to defend their democracy, to be a democratic nation, and to join NATO."
— Evelyn Farkas (00:44)

Interaction with the Trump Administration

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the potential shift in U.S. policy with the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Trump's assertion of the ability to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours is scrutinized by Farkas, who explores the feasibility and implications of such a statement (01:48).

Farkas speculates on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's strategic approach in negotiations with Trump, anticipating a transactional stance aimed at securing Ukraine's interests:

"I think President Zelensky understood, okay, this is a president who's really transactional. He's going to be thinking about what's in it for me. So he did reference the fact that Ukraine has mineral deposits. I believe they have lithium. That would be important for U.S. industry and U.S. national security."
— Evelyn Farkas (04:25)

She further discusses the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine, asserting that any settlement must include robust measures to ensure Ukraine's safety and sovereignty:

"I don't see any way out of any way out that doesn't include some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine. I don't know how they would think it was safe or fair. And so I think the prerequisite is either a hardcore bilateral security agreement or NATO membership."
— Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

Manpower and Societal Strain in Ukraine

Farkas delves into the multifaceted manpower challenges facing Ukraine, extending beyond the battlefield to the very fabric of Ukrainian society. She notes the exhaustion and directness of Ukrainian officials and civil society leaders regarding the scarcity of qualified personnel necessary to sustain both government functions and military efforts (05:16).

"Meaning that they don't have enough qualified people to frankly populate the government at various levels. They don't have just enough people with the right expertise. Many of the most Expert, capable people, of course, mostly women, but some men left the country or they're at the front."
— Evelyn Farkas (06:08)

This depletion has led to political challenges, including the need to lower the draft age, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Impact of International Support and Russian Alliances

The interview addresses the evolving dynamics of international support for Ukraine, especially in light of Russia’s alliances with nations like Iran and North Korea. Farkas highlights Ukraine's desire for increased support from the U.S., Europe, and Asia, juxtaposed against Moscow's ability to enlist foreign military support.

"They are jealous of the fact that Russians can get other countries to, you know, in other states, basically to provide military personnel to the battlefield."
— Evelyn Farkas (08:29)

She underscores the urgency for Ukraine’s allies to bolster their support to match Russia's strategic alliances, thereby ensuring a balanced approach to the conflict.

Prospects of a Stalemate and Future Settlements

Farkas critically examines Senator Marco Rubio's viewpoint that ongoing U.S. support is perpetuating a stalemate that costs lives and delays Ukraine's recovery. She counters this by clarifying that U.S. backing is fundamental to Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty and independence.

"We're funding Ukraine in its quest to maintain its sovereignty, not be colonized, you know, recolonized again by the Russian Federation. And they are not necessarily losing."
— Evelyn Farkas (09:22)

Regarding potential settlements, Farkas speculates that any viable agreement must include significant security assurances for Ukraine, such as NATO membership or a bilateral security pact with the U.S. She remains skeptical about concessions that would compromise Ukraine's long-term security and sovereignty.

"I think the prerequisite is either a hardcore bilateral security agreement or NATO membership. And frankly, the NATO members are all ready, from what I understand... to now, maybe Hungary is an exception, but they would now accept Ukraine as a NATO member."
— Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

Strategic Importance of the Kursk Region

The conversation touches upon the strategic significance of the Kursk region, where North Korean and Russian forces are currently engaged. Farkas discusses the tactical importance of holding or relinquishing this area, positioning it as a potential bargaining chip in broader negotiations.

"President Zelensky called it a bargaining chip. He said, we're not. We're not trying to acquire new territory. So, you know, but I think he definitely sees it as a bargaining chip."
— Evelyn Farkas (12:46)

Conclusion: Resilience and Hope for Ukraine

In the closing segments, Farkas emphasizes the enduring resilience of the Ukrainian people and cautions against underestimating their capacity to defend their nation. She encourages continued support and strategic planning to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty prevails.

"Don't count them out. Don't ever count them out. We counted them out last summer, remember? I mean, we've counted them out. So we counted them out in February 2022... Don't count them out."
— Evelyn Farkas (16:27)

Farkas concludes with a message of optimism, asserting that ultimately, justice and right are on Ukraine’s side, reinforcing the importance of sustained international support.

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Key Takeaways

• Resilience of Ukraine: Despite prolonged conflict, Ukraine remains steadfast in its pursuit of sovereignty, democracy, and integration into the EU and NATO.

• Strategic Negotiations: Zelensky's approach in negotiations, especially with a potentially transactional Trump administration, focuses on leveraging Ukraine's natural resources and securing security guarantees.

• Manpower Challenges: Ukraine faces significant manpower shortages not only on the battlefield but also within its governmental and civil sectors, exacerbated by emigration and military conscription.

• International Support Dynamics: The necessity for increased support from Ukraine’s allies is critical in counterbalancing Russia’s strategic alliances with countries like Iran and North Korea.

• Future Settlements: Any lasting resolution to the conflict must include robust security measures for Ukraine, potentially through NATO membership or bilateral agreements with the U.S.

• Enduring Optimism: Farkas underscores the importance of not underestimating Ukraine’s resilience and the moral imperative for continued international support.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• On Ukrainian Determination:
  "The Ukrainian people remain determined to stand up for their sovereignty... and to join NATO."
  — Evelyn Farkas (00:44)

• On Security Guarantees:
  "I don't see any way out of any way out that doesn't include some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine."
  — Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

• On Manpower Issues:
  "They don't have enough qualified people to frankly populate the government at various levels."
  — Evelyn Farkas (06:08)

• Encouraging Resilience:
  "Don't count them out. Don't ever count them out."
  — Evelyn Farkas (16:27)

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This episode of Click Here offers a thorough examination of the current state of the Ukraine conflict, the strategic maneuvers of its leadership, and the critical role of international support. Evelyn Farkas provides invaluable insights into the complexities of the war, emphasizing the importance of resilience and strategic alliances in ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and democratic aspirations.

Transcript

[Michael Calorie]

From prx.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

When was the last time you were in Ukraine?

[Evelyn Farkas]

A little over a week ago.

[Dina Temple Raston]

This is Evelyn Farkas, the executive director of the McCain Institute. It's a nonpartisan organization dedicated to democracy and human rights. During the Obama administration, Evelyn was the deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. She was also a senior senior advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. So she's been to Ukraine dozens of times, but this last trip, she said, felt different.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

So was it pretty grim while you were there?

[Evelyn Farkas]

I won't lie. It was pretty grim. Now, I will say, Dina, that the Ukrainian people remain determined to stand up for their sovereignty. They remain determined to become members of the European Union and have a better economic system and more prosperity, to defend their democracy, to be a democratic nation, and to join NATO.

[Dina Temple Raston]

I'm Dina Temple Rest, and this is Click. Here's Mic Drop, an extended cut of an interview we think you'd like to hear more of. This time last year, we were in Ukraine reporting about technology in the war. Ukraine is the first truly hybrid war the world has ever seen. And today, given all the discussion about Ukraine in the run up to the Trump administration, we sat down with Evelyn to get a read on what to expect. President Elect Trump says he can end the war in 24 hours, but he didn't say much about how exactly he'd do that.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

So Trump said on Fox News that he was going to say to Zelensky, you have to make a deal. And then he'd say to Putin and say, if you don't make a deal, we're gonna give Zelensky everything he wants. Is that what you think's gonna happen?

[Evelyn Farkas]

I mean, there's something to that.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Take a listen.

[Michael Calorie]

Hi, everyone, it's Michael Calorie, director of consumer, tech and culture at Wired. Here with my colleagues, senior writer Lauren Good.

[Lauren Good]

Hello.

[Michael Calorie]

And Wired contributor Zoe Schiffer.

[Lauren Good]

Hey, everyone.

[Michael Calorie]

We're here to tell you about our new podcast, Uncanny Valley, a show about the and influences Silicon Valley.

[Lauren Good]

Every week we get together to talk about how technology and culture from the valley is influencing our everyday lives. We dig into questions like will we ever get our privacy back? Is OpenAI for real? And how are Silicon Valley billionaires impacting US Elections? The first episode of Uncanny Valley comes out on October 31st. Listen, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Dina Temple Raston]

I'm Dina Temple Rost, and this is Click.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

Here's Mike Draw.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Back in September, when President Trump was still a candidate, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the US Trying to drum up support for the war. And the two made time to meet in New York at Trump Tower.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

We're going to have a good meeting.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Today, and I think the fact that we're even together today is a very good sign. It was the first in person encounter between the two men since 2019, and there wasn't much of a readout about what they discussed. What we do know is that Trump has made no secret about not wanting to continue providing military and financial aid to Ukraine. So I asked Evelyn Farkas what she thought they talked about and what she thinks Zelensky's strategy will be with the new President Trump.

[Evelyn Farkas]

I think President Zelensky understood, okay, this is a president who's really transactional. He's going to be thinking about what's in it for me. So he, he did reference the fact that Ukraine has mineral deposits. I believe they have lithium. That would be important for U.S. industry and U.S. national security. President Zelensky would probably also appeal to President Trump's desire not to be a loser.

[Michael Calorie]

I believe that the war will end, and it will not end in the abstract, but there's no exact date. However, the war will end faster with the policy of the scheme that will now lead the White House.

[Evelyn Farkas]

The United States has been backing Ukraine since 2014, and I think if President Zelensky were clever, you know, he would try to talk about victory not just for Ukraine, but victory for President Trump. You know, how does President Trump achieve a victory that the world will regard as a victory, not that only President Putin would regard as a victory?

[Dina Temple Raston]

When we sat down with Evelyn, she'd just returned from a trip to Kyiv. She's been there dozens of times, all the way back to 1990, 1993.

[Evelyn Farkas]

I have never seen the Ukrainian officials and civil society leaders this tired and frankly, this direct about their lack of sufficient manpower. And, I mean, not just on the front, but sort of across society. The losses on the battlefield, the losses due to, you know, temporary or permanent emigration have, you know, added up.

[Dina Temple Raston]

They've lowered the age of the draft to 25 years old, and they'll probably need to lower it again, though, she said that's politically fraud.

[Evelyn Farkas]

So there are things that Ukraine can do, frankly, to address the manpower issue on the front, the manpower issue, however, across society, that one is urgent and they do need help with that.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

What do you mean by manpower issue across society?

[Evelyn Farkas]

Meaning that they don't have enough qualified people to frankly populate the government at various levels. They don't have just enough people with the right expertise. Many of the most Expert, capable people, of course, mostly women, but some men left the country or they're at the front.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Evelyn said the increased stress on the country could not just be felt, but literally heard.

[Evelyn Farkas]

And the interesting thing was a year ago, you may recall, at that point, there were no attacks on Kyiv. There were no sirens and missile. You know, missile or drone attacks or a few.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

Very few.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Yeah, but exactly.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

There were some when we were there, but they were pretty. Pretty isolated.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Yeah, but when we were there this past, again, I think it was May, it was a completely different story. And I had my first, you know, going down to the bomb shelter experience. This time there, it was so bad that we just ignored it because we wouldn't have been able to make our meetings, you know, so we just said, okay, you know, if it's really bad, our security guys will come and pull us out of the debris.

[Dina Temple Raston]

After more than a thousand days of war, Ukraine remains as committed as ever, not just to fight for its democracy, but to join Europe and the EU and become part of NATO.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Those are all things that they view as existential goals for them, but they just are tired of having to fight and feeling like they don't have the same level of support among their partners as Vladimir Putin does.

[Dina Temple Raston]

What appeared intended to be a quick conquest turned into a long and bloody war. Moscow has been forced to supplement its military with new conscripts to sustain the fight. Over the past couple of years, Iran has provided weapons to Russia for the war. North Korea has, too. And now some 10,000 North Korean soldiers are fighting beside Russian soldiers in Kursk, the Russian border region that Ukraine captured back in August. Evelyn said that the Ukrainians see Russia's allies stepping up, and they want their allies to step up, too.

[Evelyn Farkas]

They would like their partners, US and the Europeans and the Asians, who are supporting them, to provide more support. And, of course, they're jealous of the fact that Russians can get other countries to, you know, in other states, basically to provide military personnel to the battlefield.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Whatever support the United States is currently providing. That, of course, could all change come January.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

Marco Rubio is likely to be Trump's Secretary of State, and he's praised the Ukrainians and said that the problem is we're funding a stalemate.

[Michael Calorie]

Now, that doesn't mean that we celebrate what Vladimir Putin did or are excited about it, but I think there has to also be some common sense here, and that is that right now what we are funding is a stalemate that's costing lives. And, you know, putting Ukraine, it's going to take 100 years to rebuild that poor country with everything they are facing.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

Is he wrong?

[Evelyn Farkas]

Well, I think at a certain moment in time, you can say it looks like a stalemate, but I think it's too simplistic to say we're funding a stalemate. I mean, we're funding Ukraine in its quest to maintain its sovereignty, not be colonized, you know, recolonized again by the Russian Federation. And they are not necessarily losing. So a stalemate is not a bad thing in the sense that they're not losing. A stalemate indefinitely, of course, is a problem. But the fight for Ukraine is so important because if Vladimir Putin gets his way in Ukraine, number one, it will embolden Vladimir Putin to continue to try to regain former Soviet states like Moldova, Georgia. He's effectively taken over using political means. He will then probably try to probe NATO states.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

What do you think a likely settlement, if there is one, would look like? If Trump is going to force the.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Hand, if he forces the hand. I don't see any way out of any way out that doesn't include some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine. I don't know how they would think it was safe or fair. And so I think the prerequisite is either a hardcore bilateral security agreement or NATO membership. And frankly, the NATO members are all ready, from what I understand, Meaning they would now, maybe Hungary is an exception, but they would now accept Ukraine as a NATO member. So I think NATO membership would be critical. And then. And then, other than that, I think that President Zelensky would probably be, you know, I can't speak for him or the Ukrainian people, but I think if they had to trade some land, you know, they may find. They may find a way to do it so that it doesn't seem permanent. But if they, if they. If that's the deal they have to make, they might make it because they could save the rest of their country and they could save their democracy.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

So it would be, you can stay there for now. We'll discuss.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Yeah. Or you pretend that you're okay, fine, Russia can have it, but there's an asterisk. So sometime in the future, it could be revisited. I think what's become clear now is that Ukraine could use a ceasefire. Even if it's not a permanent ceasefire, they could use the opportunity to rebuild. Of course, that goes both ways. Putin could use it as well. So I think that they're looking at that. The problem is, of course, that, again, a ceasefire without a real security guarantee, like a bilateral US Security guarantee, similar to the one that we give Japan and Republic of Korea or a NATO, real NATO membership, either one of those security guarantees. Without one of those types of security guarantees, it's only a ceasefire. Especially with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. If there were a change of government in Russia, a government that wasn't imperial or neo imperial, then it might be a different situation. But nobody's going to trust Vladimir Putin not to try again.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

Do you think that leaving the Kursk region is going to be a prerequisite for Russia to come to the table?

[Evelyn Farkas]

It might be.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Kursk is where North Korean and Russian soldiers are fighting right now.

[Evelyn Farkas]

But I think the Ukrainians have. They've telegraphed that they are. They've signaled that they're willing to do that. You know, President Zelensky called it a bargaining chip. He said, we're not. We're not trying to acquire new territory. So, you know, but I think he definitely sees it as a bargaining chip. So if they can hold onto it, it is clever. The question is, you know, can they hold onto it? It seems they don't have a ton of good options. And the Kursk situation, while that was a good gamble and yielded them some. Some advantages, at least for a certain amount of time, now they're going to really have to figure out what to do in that case. So I think. I don't know that we're going to see them take the initiative again, but on the battlefield or elsewhere, but you never know, because everyone said whatever the.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Trump administration decides to do, whether it's to give them aid or not give them aid or force them to negotiate, we won't see it have an effect right away.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

If Trump comes in January 20th and.

[Dina Temple Raston]

Ends aid, how does that manifest itself on the battlefield and within Ukraine itself?

[Evelyn Farkas]

Well, it won't manifest itself on the battlefield immediately because, of course, we're providing. The US Government is providing as much as possible. And the Biden administration has been pretty clear. I don't know if they said this publicly, but certainly privately, they're trying to move everything as fast as possible into Ukraine. It takes so long after the money's disbursed. And everyone agrees, Congress and the president to provide X package of equipment to the Ukrainians to actually get it into the theater, into the battlefield. They are trying to accelerate that as much as possible.

[Dina Temple Raston]

A few days after our discussion with Evelyn, President Biden did an about face and gave Ukraine permission to use U.S. weapons to strike targets far inside Russia. Previously, Ukraine could only use the missiles along the border. Zelensky didn't waste any time.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

The Kremlin says Ukraine has fired US Supplied long range missiles at a military facility inside Russia.

[Dina Temple Raston]

The missiles targeted a military installation in the Bryansk region in the early hours of Tuesday morning, not long after President Vladimir Putin lowered Russia's threshold for when it is justified in using nuclear weapons. While it was a long planned move, the timing was designed to make it look like the Kremlin could respond aggressively to the Ukrainian strikes. The assumption has been that under Trump, Ukraine will fare worse, that Trump will end financial and military aid. But Evelyn says with Biden as a lame duck president, there may be more options on the table. Trump wants to get both sides to negotiate.

[Evelyn Farkas]

I think that there are a lot of options now for people that they didn't have before, perhaps. I think things might have been much more frozen, if you will, or in the sailmate phase, politically, economically and militarily. So now there's a little more leeway for Ukraine and frankly also the Europeans to do what they think they need to do to help Ukraine.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

You're not as negative as I thought you were going to be.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Well, I mean, I'm. Don't get me wrong, I'm concerned, but I don't think it's all doom and gloom. I do think that the Ukrainians need a deal, but I always have to see. I always believe that eventually right prevails and the Ukrainians are in the right.

[Unnamed Interviewer]

And don't count them out yet.

[Evelyn Farkas]

Don't count them out. Don't ever count them out. We counted them out last summer, remember? I mean, we've counted them out. So we counted them out in February 2022. You know, we, we've counted them out so many times. Don't count them out.

[Dina Temple Raston]

From recorded future news, this has been Click Here's Mic Drop. It was written and produced by Erica Gaida, Megan Dietrich, Sean Powers and me, Deana Temple Raston. It was edited by Karen Duff. We'll be back on Tuesday with an all new episode of Click Here. Have a great weekend.

[Zoe Schiffer]

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