Podcast Summary: Click Here – Episode 185. Mic Drop: Evelyn Farkas on Ukraine: ‘Don’t count them out’

Release Date: November 22, 2024
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute

Introduction to Evelyn Farkas and Context

In Episode 185 of Click Here, host Dina Temple-Raston engages in a compelling conversation with Evelyn Farkas, the Executive Director of the McCain Institute. Farkas, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in defense and international relations, shares her recent observations and insights from her latest visit to Ukraine, occurring just a week prior to the interview (00:10). Farkas’s background includes serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia during the Obama administration, as well as acting as a senior advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Her deep involvement in Ukrainian affairs since the early 1990s provides a well-informed perspective on the ongoing conflict and Ukraine's strategic position.

Current State of the War in Ukraine

Farkas paints a grim picture of the current situation in Ukraine, highlighting the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people despite the continuous strain of over a thousand days of conflict (00:44). She emphasizes Ukraine's unwavering commitment to sovereignty, democratic values, and aspirations to join the European Union (EU) and NATO.

"The Ukrainian people remain determined to stand up for their sovereignty. They remain determined to become members of the European Union and have a better economic system and more prosperity, to defend their democracy, to be a democratic nation, and to join NATO."
— Evelyn Farkas (00:44)

Interaction with the Trump Administration

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the potential shift in U.S. policy with the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Trump's assertion of the ability to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours is scrutinized by Farkas, who explores the feasibility and implications of such a statement (01:48).

Farkas speculates on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's strategic approach in negotiations with Trump, anticipating a transactional stance aimed at securing Ukraine's interests:

"I think President Zelensky understood, okay, this is a president who's really transactional. He's going to be thinking about what's in it for me. So he did reference the fact that Ukraine has mineral deposits. I believe they have lithium. That would be important for U.S. industry and U.S. national security."
— Evelyn Farkas (04:25)

She further discusses the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine, asserting that any settlement must include robust measures to ensure Ukraine's safety and sovereignty:

"I don't see any way out of any way out that doesn't include some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine. I don't know how they would think it was safe or fair. And so I think the prerequisite is either a hardcore bilateral security agreement or NATO membership."
— Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

Manpower and Societal Strain in Ukraine

Farkas delves into the multifaceted manpower challenges facing Ukraine, extending beyond the battlefield to the very fabric of Ukrainian society. She notes the exhaustion and directness of Ukrainian officials and civil society leaders regarding the scarcity of qualified personnel necessary to sustain both government functions and military efforts (05:16).

"Meaning that they don't have enough qualified people to frankly populate the government at various levels. They don't have just enough people with the right expertise. Many of the most Expert, capable people, of course, mostly women, but some men left the country or they're at the front."
— Evelyn Farkas (06:08)

This depletion has led to political challenges, including the need to lower the draft age, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Impact of International Support and Russian Alliances

The interview addresses the evolving dynamics of international support for Ukraine, especially in light of Russia’s alliances with nations like Iran and North Korea. Farkas highlights Ukraine's desire for increased support from the U.S., Europe, and Asia, juxtaposed against Moscow's ability to enlist foreign military support.

"They are jealous of the fact that Russians can get other countries to, you know, in other states, basically to provide military personnel to the battlefield."
— Evelyn Farkas (08:29)

She underscores the urgency for Ukraine’s allies to bolster their support to match Russia's strategic alliances, thereby ensuring a balanced approach to the conflict.

Prospects of a Stalemate and Future Settlements

Farkas critically examines Senator Marco Rubio's viewpoint that ongoing U.S. support is perpetuating a stalemate that costs lives and delays Ukraine's recovery. She counters this by clarifying that U.S. backing is fundamental to Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty and independence.

"We're funding Ukraine in its quest to maintain its sovereignty, not be colonized, you know, recolonized again by the Russian Federation. And they are not necessarily losing."
— Evelyn Farkas (09:22)

Regarding potential settlements, Farkas speculates that any viable agreement must include significant security assurances for Ukraine, such as NATO membership or a bilateral security pact with the U.S. She remains skeptical about concessions that would compromise Ukraine's long-term security and sovereignty.

"I think the prerequisite is either a hardcore bilateral security agreement or NATO membership. And frankly, the NATO members are all ready, from what I understand... to now, maybe Hungary is an exception, but they would now accept Ukraine as a NATO member."
— Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

Strategic Importance of the Kursk Region

The conversation touches upon the strategic significance of the Kursk region, where North Korean and Russian forces are currently engaged. Farkas discusses the tactical importance of holding or relinquishing this area, positioning it as a potential bargaining chip in broader negotiations.

"President Zelensky called it a bargaining chip. He said, we're not. We're not trying to acquire new territory. So, you know, but I think he definitely sees it as a bargaining chip."
— Evelyn Farkas (12:46)

Conclusion: Resilience and Hope for Ukraine

In the closing segments, Farkas emphasizes the enduring resilience of the Ukrainian people and cautions against underestimating their capacity to defend their nation. She encourages continued support and strategic planning to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty prevails.

"Don't count them out. Don't ever count them out. We counted them out last summer, remember? I mean, we've counted them out. So we counted them out in February 2022... Don't count them out."
— Evelyn Farkas (16:27)

Farkas concludes with a message of optimism, asserting that ultimately, justice and right are on Ukraine’s side, reinforcing the importance of sustained international support.

Key Takeaways

• Resilience of Ukraine: Despite prolonged conflict, Ukraine remains steadfast in its pursuit of sovereignty, democracy, and integration into the EU and NATO.

• Strategic Negotiations: Zelensky's approach in negotiations, especially with a potentially transactional Trump administration, focuses on leveraging Ukraine's natural resources and securing security guarantees.

• Manpower Challenges: Ukraine faces significant manpower shortages not only on the battlefield but also within its governmental and civil sectors, exacerbated by emigration and military conscription.

• International Support Dynamics: The necessity for increased support from Ukraine’s allies is critical in counterbalancing Russia’s strategic alliances with countries like Iran and North Korea.

• Future Settlements: Any lasting resolution to the conflict must include robust security measures for Ukraine, potentially through NATO membership or bilateral agreements with the U.S.

• Enduring Optimism: Farkas underscores the importance of not underestimating Ukraine’s resilience and the moral imperative for continued international support.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• On Ukrainian Determination:
  "The Ukrainian people remain determined to stand up for their sovereignty... and to join NATO."
  — Evelyn Farkas (00:44)

• On Security Guarantees:
  "I don't see any way out of any way out that doesn't include some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine."
  — Evelyn Farkas (10:22)

• On Manpower Issues:
  "They don't have enough qualified people to frankly populate the government at various levels."
  — Evelyn Farkas (06:08)

• Encouraging Resilience:
  "Don't count them out. Don't ever count them out."
  — Evelyn Farkas (16:27)

This episode of Click Here offers a thorough examination of the current state of the Ukraine conflict, the strategic maneuvers of its leadership, and the critical role of international support. Evelyn Farkas provides invaluable insights into the complexities of the war, emphasizing the importance of resilience and strategic alliances in ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and democratic aspirations.