Podcast Summary: Click Here – “The Veterans Who Worry Putin”

Recorded Future News | September 5, 2025
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Katerina Stepanenko, Russia expert at the Institute for the Study of War

Episode Overview

This episode explores the emerging threat to Vladimir Putin’s regime: the growing ranks of Russian military veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. Through an in-depth interview with Katerina Stepanenko, the podcast unpacks how these veterans’ personal stories contradict the Kremlin’s narrative, fueling unrest and anxiety within Russia. The discussion examines the Kremlin’s attempts to control the information space, historical parallels with the aftermath of the Soviet-Afghan War, and the government’s strategies—ranging from incentives to repression—to prevent these veterans from becoming a destabilizing force.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rising Dissent Among Russian Veterans

• Thousands of soldiers are returning from Ukraine, sharing real battlefield experiences that clash with official Kremlin propaganda.

  • “Each month, thousands of soldiers are returning to their homes with stories of what's really unfolding on the battlefields...that doesn’t sound like the Kremlin's version of events.” (00:46 – Dena Temple-Raston)

• Online platforms like Telegram have amplified criticism against Russia’s Ministry of Defense.

  • “There was a lot of criticism that was emerging on Russian telegram channels, and it actually gave a rise to individuals, Russian servicemen, to go against the Russian Ministry of Defense.” (01:07 – Katerina Stepanenko)

2. The Digital Front: Propaganda, Social Media, and Cognitive Warfare

• The war’s “second front” is information, where figures like Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin weaponized social media to challenge the Kremlin.

  • “Prigozhin understood the power of social media in a way that the Kremlin didn’t...to push for policies he thought would help win the war.” (02:24 – Dena Temple-Raston)

• The Kremlin has reverted to old Soviet-era strategies, particularly “reflexive control theory,” to manipulate public perception.

  • "It's actually a Soviet theory called the reflexive control theory, in which Russians argue that they can use a variety of different means to convince and change someone's perception to accomplish their own strategic goals." (04:01 – Katerina Stepanenko)

• Stepanenko frames this as “cognitive warfare,” a deeper manipulation that shapes thought before realization.

  • “My passion project...is defining and really understanding how adversaries use cognitive warfare to influence our decision makers.” (04:26 – Katerina Stepanenko)
  • “Cognitive warfare is more than propaganda, more than censorship. It’s manipulation on a deeper level...creating a reality where facts feel fluid and trust erodes.” (04:43 – Dena Temple-Raston)

3. The Kremlin Tightens Information Control

• Increased censorship: pro-war bloggers and even commanders have been silenced, restricted, or punished.

  • “Bloggers who were once driving right up to the battlefield...are now being prohibited.” (06:15 – Dena Temple-Raston)
  • “They can’t report on what’s going on on the front lines and the atrocities that they see...” (06:28 – Katerina Stepanenko)

• The fates of Prigozhin and high-profile critics like General Ivan Popov show the risks of public dissent:

  • “The Kremlin...fired some commanders that tried to use a similar tactic to blackmail the Kremlin into making command changes.” (07:14 – Katerina Stepanenko)
  • “I called a spade a spade.” (07:46 – News Reporter, quoting Ivan Popov)

4. Historical Parallels: The Dangerous Potential of Disillusioned Veterans

• The regime is haunted by the 1990s, when Afghan war veterans returned traumatized, became organized, and formed communities the government couldn’t control, fueling crime and unrest.

  • “The last time Moscow faced a wave of disillusioned veterans...the country unraveled into crime, chaos and humiliation. And the Kremlin worries that could happen again.” (09:03 – Dena Temple-Raston)

• Putin’s personal memory of this era heightens his anxiety about the possible return of some 700,000 soldiers if the Ukraine war ends.

  • “Putin...lived through the devastating 1990s...plagued by Afghan war servicemen coming back with psychological trauma, with no prospects, no jobs, and turning to crime.” (10:18 – Katerina Stepanenko)

5. The Kremlin’s Two-Pronged Strategy: Co-optation and Suppression

• To pre-empt unrest, Moscow is buying veterans’ loyalty—offering payments, debt relief, education funds, and significant perks.

  • “The Kremlin has set up a fund for returning soldiers, including some $126 million...debt relief, education funds, sweeteners...” (12:26 – Dena Temple-Raston)

• Simultaneously, it restricts independent veterans’ organizations and replaces them with state-run, pro-war patriotic groups.

  • “The more that you tie them to the state and give them advantages with the state, the less these veteran communities or servicemen would actually be vocal...” (12:45 – Katerina Stepanenko)
  • “Eliminate civil societies and replace them with pro Russian, pro war military patriotic organizations deliberately...” (13:20 – Katerina Stepanenko)
  • “The Kremlin rolled out the svo, a state run veterans club, a kind of Russian vfw, and the goal isn’t subtle.” (13:49 – Dena Temple-Raston)

• For those still fighting, the military explores ways to keep them in service indefinitely—effectively preventing potential dissenters from returning home or organizing.

  • “We...saw the Russian Ministry of Defense sending around a survey...asking how many would be interested in signing up for a contract service. That means the Kremlin could essentially keep them for as long as they want.” (14:34 – Katerina Stepanenko)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Cognitive warfare is more than propaganda, more than censorship. It’s manipulation on a deeper level...creating a reality where facts feel fluid and trust erodes.”
  — Dena Temple-Raston (04:43)

• “If they come back en masse and they form, you know, a civil society around their grievances, then...the Kremlin probably wouldn't be able to sustain the regime.”
  — Katerina Stepanenko (11:32)

• “The logic is brutal. You can't protest or organize if you never come home.”
  — Dena Temple-Raston (14:57)

• “The more that you tie them to the state and give them advantages with the state, the less these veteran communities or servicemen would actually be vocal about their experience in the war.”
  — Katerina Stepanenko (12:45)

Important Timestamps

• 01:07 – Stepanenko on rising criticism within Russian Telegram channels
• 03:18 – Prigozhin’s use of social media as blackmail
• 04:01 – Reflexive control theory and cognitive warfare
• 06:15–06:37 – Kremlin crackdown on battlefield reporting and bloggers
• 07:37–08:13 – Case study: General Ivan Popov’s public dissent and dismissal
• 09:03–09:29 – The Afghan war veteran parallel and Kremlin fears
• 10:18–10:44 – Putin’s memory of post-Afghan war chaos
• 12:26–13:20 – Kremlin’s loyalty payouts and creation of patriotic veterans’ groups
• 14:34 – MOD strategy to keep soldiers from returning

Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid picture of Russia’s hidden crisis: a generation of war veterans whose lived experiences directly challenge the regime’s preferred narrative. The Kremlin’s efforts—from digital censorship and narrative management to financial co-optation and organizational suppression—reveal its deep anxiety over the destabilizing power of returning soldiers. The conversation ends on a chilling note, suggesting the war continues not just in trenches, but in the minds and living rooms of Russians, where silence and fear prevail.

For those who want an insider’s look at how authoritarian regimes seek to manage uncomfortable truths, and why veteran voices scare Putin more than foreign adversaries ever could, this episode is essential listening.