Watching the next war

Summary

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Podcast Summary: “Watching the Next War”

Podcast: Click Here (Recorded Future News)
Air Date: July 3, 2026
Host: Dina Temple-Raston
Guest: Emil Kostahelmi (Military Analyst, Blackbird Group)

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Overview

This episode delves into how the war in Ukraine has transformed modern warfare—making it stagnant, decentralized, and dominated by rapidly changing technology, especially drones and AI. Host Dina Temple-Raston, along with guest military analyst Emil Kostahelmi, explore how innovation cycles on the battlefield are now driven by startups and how these developments are poised to impact conflicts beyond Ukraine.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The New Nature of the Ukrainian Battlefield

• Stalemate Emerges:

  • Both sides are now locked in a cycle where innovation is quickly countered, leading to a “remarkably difficult to move” front (00:02).
  • “Neither one is weak enough or strong enough to make heavy demands.” — Emil Kostahelmi (00:38, 14:37)

• Impact of Drones:

  • Compared to two years prior, the front lines are now “heavily drone saturated” (03:47).
  • Fronts are “blurry and porous”—creating what’s called a "growing gray zone," making it difficult to stay hidden or move larger forces (03:47).
  • “Drones have shaped the battlefield radically.” — Emil Kostahelmi (03:47)

2. Psychological and Sensory Impact of Drone Warfare

• Soundscape of War:

  • Traditional sounds of war (artillery, tanks) are faded; now, “the constant sound of drones” dominates and unnerves soldiers (04:49).
  • “That’s the one sound that they really do not like.” — Emil Kostahelmi (04:49)
  • “There is like a fear of drones, especially newer recruits.” (05:35)

• Training Implications:

  • Western militaries need to prepare their troops for this new environment, not just tactically but psychologically (05:35).

3. Decentralization & Rapid Innovation

• Battlefield Innovation:

  • The war has seen “warfare become more decentralized, meaning smaller groups, faster adaptation cycles” (06:00).
  • Startups can send innovations directly to the front, get feedback, and iterate much faster than traditional Western military contractors (06:29).
  • “The innovation cycle and the development cycle is relatively short...it’s more flexible than in the West.” — Emil Kostahelmi (06:29)

• “Good Enough” Weapons:

  • There is a need for “cheap, reliable, mass producible anti-drone weapons…those kinds of counter weapons don’t really exist at the moment.” (07:24)

4. Shifting the Strategic Picture

• Ukrainian Deep Strikes:
  • Ukraine now conducts drone strikes deep into Russian territory—targeting oil depots, infrastructure, air bases (07:46).
  • Shifts the war “away from the front lines” to an “economic level,” hitting valuable assets and compounding pressure on Russia (08:05).
  • “Ukraine is continuously developing more range, larger payload, better technology…this will get worse for Russia before they are able to employ effective countermeasures.” — Emil Kostahelmi (08:05)

5. Reliance on Commercial Technology

• Platforms like Starlink, Telegram:
  • Starlink is “really important” for Ukrainian command and control (09:27).
  • Ukraine’s dependency: “If Ukraine now lost access to Starlink, that would make their lives really difficult.” — Emil Kostahelmi (09:27)

6. The Emerging Role of AI

• AI in Targeting & Autonomy:

  • Both sides “are trying to put AI into use in the drone war,” but human operators are still needed for strikes (13:27).
  • “AI has not taken over yet, but it is an effective tool that could shape the drone war into something new again.” — Emil Kostahelmi (13:27)
  • The shift to more autonomous systems is underway, but still in early stages.

• Practicalities of Current Drone Warfare:

  • Many drones still use “spool attached to the drone,” like a “giant extension cord,” showing how some technical solutions remain relatively low-tech (14:12).

7. What’s Next? Stalemate, Diplomacy, and the Future

• No End in Sight:

  • Both sides are “not weak enough or strong enough to make heavy demands,” so the deadlock continues (14:37).
  • Goals remain “incompatible” (Ukraine’s sovereignty vs. Russia preventing Western alignment) and make a purely diplomatic solution difficult (14:37).
  • “If diplomatic solution can’t be found, they will try to solve the issues on the battlefield.” (14:37)

• Will This War Define the Future or Be an Anomaly?

  • Historians may view Ukraine as “the first true drone war,” though it could also be seen as an anomaly depending on future conflicts (16:28).
  • “The future of the battlefield is looking more unmanned for all participants.” — Emil Kostahelmi (16:28)

8. Where Military Innovation Comes From Now

• Disruption of State Monopoly:
  • “Some of the most important ideas in this war didn’t come from a defense ministry. They came from startups, volunteer networks, hobbyists, and people who learned their craft online.” — Dina Temple-Raston (17:33)
  • “It’s changing where the new ideas come from.” (17:33)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Mechanized warfare, maneuver warfare with larger units, is basically dead.” — Emil Kostahelmi (04:25)
• “The buzz of the drones makes me think...back in the olden days when you had cavalry...Is the drone buzzing sort of the new modern equivalent of that?” — Megan Dietre (05:17)
• “It is possible that the war in Ukraine could be one sort of an anomaly…But it’s also possible that the future of the battlefield is looking more unmanned.” — Emil Kostahelmi (16:28)
• “Ukraine has challenged that model. Some of the most important ideas in this war didn’t come from a defense ministry…It's changing where the new ideas come from.” — Dina Temple-Raston (17:33)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:02 – The current stalemate in Ukraine and rapid innovation cycles
• 03:47 – Transformation of the front lines and the “gray zone”
• 04:49 – The psychological impact of drones’ constant buzzing
• 06:00 – Decentralization and fast innovation from battlefield startups
• 07:24 – The end of the era of “exquisite” high-contract weapons; need for mass-production defense
• 08:05 – Ukrainian drone strikes deepen the economic and psychological reach of the war
• 09:27 – Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink and global commercial platforms
• 13:27 – AI’s present and future role in autonomous warfare
• 14:37 – Why the stalemate persists and the diplomatic impasse
• 16:28 – How this war will be remembered: the first “true drone war”?
• 17:33 – Disruption: new ideas emerging outside traditional state actors

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Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid, accessible portrait of the evolution of warfare in Ukraine, emphasizing the transformative power of drone technology, the emergence of AI, and the role of non-state actors in military innovation. These trends foreshadow not just the future of this conflict, but the nature of “the next war”—one where agility, decentralization, commercial tech, and unmanned systems will define the fight.

Transcript

[Dina Temple-Raston]

From recorded future news and prx, this is click here. For the last four years, the war in Ukraine has become a bit of a race. One side built something new and the other side figures out how to stop it. Then the cycle starts all over again. And after thousands of iterations, something unexpected has happened across much of the front. The war has become remarkably difficult to

[Emil Kostahelmi]

move at the moment. One of the problems is for both parties fighting this war is that neither one is weak enough or strong enough to make heavy demands.

[Dina Temple-Raston]

From Recorded Future News and prx, this is Click Here, a show about the people making and breaking our digital world. I'm Dina Temple Rastan. For years, Emil Kostahelmi has watched the war in Ukraine from Finland, not from a newsroom or military command center, but through satellite imagery, videos posted online and public data. Piece by piece, he's assembled one of the clearest pictures of what's actually happening on the ground. And from that vantage point, the future of warfare starts to look a little

[Megan Dietre]

not because this war is particularly unique,

[Dina Temple-Raston]

but because so many of the changes we're seeing won't stay in Ukraine. That's when we come back. Stay with us.

[Sponsor Announcer]

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[Dina Temple-Raston]

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[Dina Temple-Raston]

war from the Very beginning.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Emil, thank you for being with us.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Thanks for having me.

[Megan Dietre]

So when you look at Ukraine right now, what feels fundamentally different from even two years ago?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Well, the battlefield, especially the frontline area, was not as heavily drone saturated two years ago as it is now. And there's blurry and porous front lines. Some people refer to the growing gray zone. So an area where it's difficult to stay hidden, to stay alive, or operate with larger forces. And everything points to the same thing, that the drones have shaped the battlefield radically over there, even the past two years.

[Megan Dietre]

So the drones, basically what they've done is they've kind of pinned everybody down where they are. Is that the idea?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Yeah, basically. And one could argue that mechanized warfare, maneuver warfare with larger units is basically dead.

[Megan Dietre]

I wonder sometimes, you know, I'm a radio person, so I wonder, what does the battlefield sound like now? Because I think when people hear war in Europe, they may imagine sounds of artillery and tanks.

[Cybersecurity Reporter]

Yeah.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

So when you go, let's say 10 kilometers from the front line, it's rather quiet. You hear artillery maybe in some areas, but generally not that much when you go closer to the front. Many soldiers have described the constant sound of drones. This buzzing sound, that's the one sound that they really do not like.

[Megan Dietre]

The buzz of the drones makes me think of, you know, back in the olden days when you had cavalry, people would get frightened just hearing hoofbeats on cobblestones. Is the drone buzzing sort of the new modern equivalent of that?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

You probably could say that there is like a fear of drones at the moment, especially newer recruits. I'd say that's something also that Western militaries should get familiar with and train their troops to understand that kind of environment and also the voices it produces.

[Megan Dietre]

We went to Ukraine about six months into the war, and we visited a bunch of the different underground drone factories. And I think what really struck me then, and even more so now, is how it seems as though we're watching warfare become more decentralized, meaning smaller groups, faster adaptation cycles. If you have sort of these startups feeding directly into battlefield innovation, how quickly are tactics becoming obsolete?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

When technology develops, so do tactics. So these smaller startups do have an important role, and especially in Ukraine, the innovation cycle and the development cycle is relatively short. So, you know, various companies can send their products to the front and then get feedback pretty quickly, and the whole structure is more flexible than in the West. Of course, the west is trying to adapt and trying to find new ways to also solve these kinds of problems.

[Megan Dietre]

I just Wonder if in the same way that you said sort of mechanized warfare is kind of dead, whether or not these kinds of big contracts and exquisite weapons instead of weapons that are good enough, whether or not the age of exquisite weapons is over too.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

What is really needed, especially when we look at Ukraine, would be cheap, reliable, mass, producible anti drone weapons that could be attached to tens of thousands of vehicles which are operating near, near the front. So those kinds of counter weapons don't really exist at the moment.

[Megan Dietre]

So we're also seeing more Ukrainian strikes

[Dina Temple-Raston]

deep inside Russia itself.

[Megan Dietre]

Oil depots, infrastructure, air bases. How do you think these medium range drone strikes have changed the strategic picture? Aside from just bringing the war to Russians, who may have been able to ignore it to now?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Well, that's also something that has not reached its peak yet. So Russia is already seeing where Ukraine's drone capabilities are evolving and it looks bad for Russia. So the Ukrainians are now shifting the war away from the front lines where it's difficult to make progress. But they are now also fighting the attritional war in the rear. They are shifting it to the economic level. They are striking valuable Russian assets. We're talking about missile systems, anti aircraft systems. This is something that the Russians are having a hard time to counter. Their oil infrastructure is getting hit and Ukraine is continuously developing more range, larger payload, better technology and so on. So this will get worse for Russia before they are able to employ effective countermeasures.

[Megan Dietre]

So there's a communications layer over this war as well. Starlink, Telegram, electronic warfare. How dependent do you think modern warfare has become on commercial technology platforms?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Well, in Ukraine especially, Starlink is really important. It was also for the Russians, but they are now trying to replace the lost capabilities with their own solutions. It is important. But of course armies are able to operate at least to some level with legacy communication systems too. So it's not like the whole Russian army had shifted all of its communications to work through Starlink or anything like that. But let's say if Ukraine now lost access to Starlink, that would make their lives really difficult. So at least Ukraine is at some level dependent. But how would other Western nations be? It's difficult to say.

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[Dina Temple-Raston]

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[Megan Dietre]

You mentioned the use of AI, especially around targeting and autonomous systems. What is AI doing in Ukraine and are we still at the beginning of that shift or are we well inside of it?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Well, both parties are trying to put AI into use in the drone war and AI has some sort of role, but still a human pilots are needed to do drone strikes. So AI has not taken over yet, but it is an an effective tool that could shape the drone war into something new again. And if AI is being utilized more effectively in the drone war, we could see less usage of the optical cables that that are now being used widely.

[Jennifer Strong]

Right.

[Megan Dietre]

These are the ones that follow the drone around for kilometers.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Yeah, basically spool attached to the drone

[Megan Dietre]

and a giant extension cord.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Yeah, yeah, Basically that's what it is. Yeah.

[Megan Dietre]

So recently, Vladimir Putin suggested that it was time to, in his words, bring this matter to a close when it comes to the war.

[Dina Temple-Raston]

How do you interpret that?

[Megan Dietre]

And do you think that drones are a major reason why he's even considering

[Sponsor Announcer]

that

[Emil Kostahelmi]

at the moment? One of the problems is for both parties fighting this war is that neither one is weak enough or strong enough to make heavy demands, and neither is in a position where they would need to accept even these kind of strong demands. Ukraine will not leave Donobus voluntarily, for example. The Russians can't dictate those kinds of things to Ukraine. Ukraine also understands that keeping their sovereignty is an existential question. Do they have a path to NATO, to EU and so on? So it's also more than just a few thousand square kilometers of eastern Ukraine. And of course, Russia doesn't want Ukraine to achieve any of those. So there's goals that are incompatible. And this is the reason why the war will continue because, you know, if diplomatic solution can't be found, then they will try to solve the issues on the battlefield with military operations. And both still think that they are more able to achieve more on the battlefield compared to the diplomatic solutions. But what needs to happen is also that Ukraine needs to start getting even more serious military victories, which could also show the Russians that they are unable to achieve their goals by just the

[Megan Dietre]

current military just grinding people down.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Yeah, yeah.

[Megan Dietre]

So when historians look back on this war someday, will they see it as the last industrial war or the first true drone war?

[Emil Kostahelmi]

At least they will look at it as the first true drone war. And it's interesting to think, how will drones be utilized in the future? It is possible that the war in Ukraine could be one sort of an anomaly between the other wars. But it's also possible that the future of the battlefield is looking more unmanned for all participants in the future. Humans will of course, play a certain role in all situations. But for example, if we look at what Ukraine is doing, they are heavily pushing for all kinds of unmanned solutions at the moment. Not just in there, also on the ground. So we will need some more large scale wars before we can actually say, how will historians view this one.

[Megan Dietre]

Emil Kastahelmi, thank you so much for being with us. We really appreciate it.

[Emil Kostahelmi]

Yeah, thanks for having me.

[Dina Temple-Raston]

For centuries, governments largely decided how wars were fought. They built the weapons, set the timelines, controlled the technology. Ukraine has challenged that model. Some of the most important ideas in this war didn't come from a defense ministry. They came from startups, volunteer networks, hobbyists, and people who learned their craft online. The war in Ukraine hasn't just changed what's being built, it's changing where the new ideas come from. This is Click Here.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Click Here is a production of Recorded Future News and prx. Today's show was written and produced by Megan Dietre, Sean Powers, Erica Gaeda, Zach Hirsch and Maya Fawaz. It was edited by Karen Duffin and Sarah Covedo and fact checked by Darren Ancrum. Original music is by Ben Levingston, with additional music from Blue Dot Sessions. Our staff writer is Lucas Riley, our illustrator is Megan Gough, and our sound designers and engineers are Jake Cooke and Jesse Nice Walker. I'm Dena Tumble Raston and we'll see you next week.

[Recorded Future Announcer]

Support for this program comes from Recorded Future. In cybersecurity, the biggest risk isn't what can be seen, it's what gets missed. Recorded Future analyzes billions of signals to help organizations stay ahead of threats. Recorded Future Know what matters? Act first.

[Cybersecurity Reporter]

Looking for more of the cybersecurity and intelligence coverage you get on? Click Here, then check out our sister publication the Record. From Recorded Future News. You'll get breaking cyber news from reporters in New York, Washington, London and Kyiv, among others. And you'll see for yourself why it attracts hundreds of thousands of page views every month. Just go to the Record Media.