Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Episode: Arthur Hayes: Where Bitcoin Goes Next
Date: March 10, 2026
Guest: Arthur Hayes – Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, former BitMEX co-founder

Episode Overview

In this engaging interview, journalist and educator Natalie Brunell hosts Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin OG and former BitMEX CEO, to explore the future of Bitcoin, the evolution of money, and global finance in an era shaped by AI disruption, war, institutional encroachment, and monetary debasement. Hayes brings sharp macroeconomic insight, personal stories from the early days of Bitcoin trading, skepticism about mainstream financial adaptation, and hard-won wisdom for investors. The conversation tackles why wealth concentration is growing, the limits of retail Bitcoin adoption, speculation around sovereign bitcoin hoards, and why the AI revolution amplifies the need for stateless money.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Arthur Hayes’ Backstory & Path to Bitcoin (00:37 – 06:59)

• Born in Buffalo, raised in Detroit; educated at Wharton.
• Moved to Hong Kong post-graduation; worked in ETF market-making at Deutsche Bank and Citi.
• Fired in 2013, became intrigued by Bitcoin after reading a Zero Hedge post. Early adopter and arbitrageur between Chinese and HK exchanges.
• Founded BitMEX, launched the perpetual swap product, which became central to crypto derivatives trading.
• Currently runs Maelstrom (family office), investing and trading in early-stage crypto projects.

Memorable Quote:
"Looking back in hindsight, the best thing that ever happened to me, I got fired in 2013 from Citibank...I came across a post on zero hedge about bitcoin...I read the white paper. I was super into the philosophy behind it." – Arthur Hayes (03:30)

2. The State & Trajectory of Bitcoin Adoption (09:08 – 12:12)

• Hayes is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but acknowledges he has tactical bullish and bearish periods.

• Bitcoin’s original ethos was to exist without permission from large financial institutions. Hayes worries the industry’s fixation on institutional approval is misguided:

  Quote:
  "We're not here to ask permission from large financial institutions to like exist...Bitcoin got from 0 to whatever, 66,000...with no government support, unclear regulations, hostile banking infrastructure and regulators." – Arthur Hayes (10:28)

• Natalie and Arthur discuss the frustration among retail investors who feel left behind as institutions accumulate more Bitcoin.

On Price Manipulation Allegations:
Hayes dismisses conspiracy theories blaming firms like Jane Street for price suppression, attributing most losses to poor trading decisions or short time horizons. (12:12)

3. Macro Backdrop: AI Disruption, Credit Contraction, and Bitcoin as “Liquidity Alarm” (13:41 – 18:39)

• Hayes argues Bitcoin’s current weakness reflects not debasement, but a looming liquidity and deflation crisis, especially as AI lays waste to well-paying white-collar jobs:

  Quote:
  "Bitcoin is a liquidity alarm and there's a massive deflationary ticking bomb under...the United States...based on AI disruption." – Arthur Hayes (13:41)

• Predicts private credit contraction will force the Fed to print—fast, not gradually—as unemployment and financial distress compound.

  Quote:
  "I think it's going to happen faster than people think just because of the exponential nature of how fast AI is improving." – Arthur Hayes (15:52)

4. Social Unrest and the Real-World Implications (18:03 – 20:43)

• The US’s thin social contract between labor and capital will lead to increasing division, ego crises among formerly affluent workers, and potential civil unrest.

• Accumulating Bitcoin might not be an effective rescue for those facing broad-based downward mobility:

  Quote:
  "Buying a little bit of bitcoin isn't really going to solve your problems...It's great for people who've been accumulating for a very long time...But it's not really going to solve the problems of the person who thought they were rich and now they're not." – Arthur Hayes (20:43)

5. Practical Investment Advice to the Displaced (22:36 – 23:04)

• Hayes’ guidance for those with insecure jobs or living paycheck-to-paycheck: ruthlessly cut costs, lower your living standards as fast as possible to prepare for uncertainty.

6. Expectations, Volatility, and Dollar-Cost Averaging (26:13 – 28:19)

• Hayes urges realistic expectations: markets “aren’t supposed to give you an above-average return.”

• The greatest gains come to those accumulating and holding for the long term through volatility, not by seeking quick, life-changing returns.

  Quote:
  "The market's job is not to make you money. The market's job is to take your money...bitcoin is not going to save your financial house immediately." – Arthur Hayes (26:56)

7. China, Sovereign Adoption, and the Myth of “Hash Wars” (28:38 – 32:05)

• Despite official bans, a significant portion (20–30%) of Bitcoin’s hash rate still operates in China, mostly through local or government-affiliated miners.

• Hayes sees little practical importance in how much bitcoin nations accumulate; sovereign “hash wars” are unlikely as governments are not accumulating for strategic advantage.

  Quote:
  "I don't think anyone in the US administration or in China is losing sleep over how much bitcoin they have." – Arthur Hayes (30:30)

8. Future Bitcoin Adoption & “Number Go Up” (32:05 – 34:54)

• Price appreciation (“number go up”) remains Bitcoin’s biggest meme and adoption engine.

• Hayes expects as fiat creation accelerates, price will rise, drawing new participants—even if it’s via adjacent crypto assets like meme coins and NFTs.

• Printing will need to outpace even COVID stimulus to manage future crises as AI drives productivity divergence and social tension.

  Quote:
  "Number go up is the mimetic transmission mechanism of information about Bitcoin...Higher the price goes, more people get involved and that really drives adoption." – Arthur Hayes (32:26)

9. If Starting Out Today: Where to Seek Wealth? (35:59 – 36:47)

• Hayes would become a podcaster or digital content creator, noting that human-created input remains crucial for AI development.

  Quote:
  "The only thing...computers can't do is provide new human experience. That's the input for AI...Those who are able to drive conversations...are going to be the most valuable in this new post-AI society." – Arthur Hayes (36:01)

10. AI Tools, Doom, and Privacy (37:07 – 44:56)

• Hayes uses Perplexity for research and views AI as both a risk and a tool; he doesn’t dwell on doomsday fears.

• Foresees privacy as a key battleground; warns AI-driven de-anonymization may matter more than regulation.

  Quote:
  "The fear is right, the implementation is wrong. It's going to come from an AI tool that could de-anonymize your transactions...That's why I'm very long Zcash." – Arthur Hayes (43:35)

• On "quantum FUD": Not worried, as technical solutions for quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses exist.

11. Institutional Capture and the Prospect of Another "War" in Bitcoin (46:10 – 47:15)

• Not concerned about a "BlackRock fork" of Bitcoin; asset managers are not positioned or incentivized to shape protocol-level changes.

12. Market Timing & The Bottom (47:21 – 49:18)

• Hayes sees more downside risk if US-Iran war drags, expects money printing to eventually propel Bitcoin up post-crisis.

  Quote:
  "If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into bitcoin? No, I would wait...when the central banks start printing money...that's when I'm going to buy bitcoin." – Arthur Hayes (47:21, also echoed at opening)

13. Closing Thoughts

• Hayes on final advice: "Be safe." (49:18)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Looking back in hindsight, the best thing that ever happened to me, I got fired in 2013 from Citibank..." – Arthur Hayes (03:30)
• "We're not here to ask permission from large financial institutions to like exist." – Arthur Hayes (10:28)
• "Bitcoin is a liquidity alarm and there's a massive deflationary ticking bomb under...the United States...based on AI disruption." – Arthur Hayes (13:41)
• "Buying a little bit of bitcoin isn't really going to solve your problems...but it's not really going to solve the problems of the person who thought they were rich and now they're not." – Arthur Hayes (20:43)
• "The market's job is not to make you money. The market's job is to take your money..." – Arthur Hayes (26:56)
• "Number go up is the mimetic transmission mechanism of information about Bitcoin..." – Arthur Hayes (32:26)
• "The only thing...computers can't do is provide new human experience. That's the input for AI..." – Arthur Hayes (36:01)
• "It's going to come from an AI tool that could de-anonymize your transactions...That's why I'm very long zcash." – Arthur Hayes (43:35)
• "If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into bitcoin? No, I would wait..." – Arthur Hayes (47:21)
• "Be safe." – Arthur Hayes (49:18)

Episode Timeline

• 00:00 – 06:59: Arthur’s background, journey into Bitcoin, BitMEX founding.
• 09:08 – 12:12: On institutional domination vs. retail, industry focus.
• 13:41 – 20:43: Macro overview, AI, expected crisis, dollar liquidity, and social unrest.
• 22:36 – 23:04: Advice for those facing displacement/unemployment.
• 26:13 – 28:19: Investing mindset, expectations, and Bitcoin volatility.
• 28:38 – 32:05: China, state-level mining, sovereign Bitcoin myths.
• 32:26 – 34:54: Future growth, retail/institution dynamics, “number go up.”
• 35:59 – 36:47: Path for the next generation: content creation as key AI input.
• 37:07 – 44:56: AI dangers, privacy, and why Hayes is bullish on privacy coins.
• 46:10 – 47:15: No fear of protocol takeover by institutions.
• 47:21 – 49:18: Market bottom, buy timing, war and money printing as catalysts.

Closing

A sweeping, sometimes sobering, sometimes zany look at macro, Bitcoin’s ethos, and a candid assessment of the challenges and opportunities ahead. Arthur Hayes leaves the listener with a spirit of realism, skepticism, and cautious optimism for those “hodling” through whatever comes next.

Arthur’s parting words:
"Be safe." (49:18)