← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Brian Estes: Could U.S. Issue Bonds Backed by Bitcoin? BitBonds, SBR, and Price Models Predict 7-Figure Bitcoin
00:31:25
In this episode with Brian Estes, we discuss: The BitBonds White Paper Could U.S. pay off its debt with Bitcoin? Price models show Bitcoin is undervalued What did Brian spend 50 bitcoin on?? ---- Guest Bio: Brian Estes is the CIO of Off the Chain...
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- [00:00]
A
The models are indicating that bitcoin, at a minimum, should be 500,000, but it's probably going to be likely over a million. And we will look at over five years. And by 2030, the models are saying that bitcoin could be worth anywhere from $8 million to $16 million.
- [00:17]
B
Wow. Welcome back to the show. Joining me this week is Brian Estes. He is CIO at Off the Chain Capital and the filmmaker behind the amazing DO documentary, God bless bitcoin. Brian, it's so great to see you. Thanks for joining me.
- [00:36]
A
Hey, Natalie, nice to see you, too.
- [00:39]
B
Well, we have a lot to talk about. You just came out with something very interesting, a white paper about bitbonds. But before we get to that, I just want to introduce you to my audience who may not be familiar with you. So can you share a little bit of your background, your origin story, and how you got so involved in the bitcoin space?
- [00:57]
A
Sure. So I come from traditional finance. When I graduated from University of Illinois in 1990, I went to work for a company called A.G. edwards & Sons in St. Louis. I was a stockbroker for the first couple of years, and then I moved over to the institutional side of the business. And I was an institutional equity manager for the. You know, until about 2004. And then I left A.G. edwards in 2004, started my own investment firm, ran that from 2004 to 2014. And. And that's when I learned about this weird thing called bitcoin. I saw Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss on CNBC when it was around $100, and they were being interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorkin. And coming from traditional finance, I thought it was a total scam. I was like, you know, this thing is a pump and dump scheme. And. And I just, you know, I put it on my watch list just to, like, you know, see what it did. And it went from $100 to $1200 over the next couple months, and then it crashed down to around 300. And being a value manager, a value investor, that's when I got interested. I was like, well, it's down, like, you know, 70%. Maybe the suckers got washed out. Let me figure out what this bitcoin thing is. And that's when I actually dove into it and did the work to figure it out. And I started off by reading the white paper this time, Nakamoto white paper. And the first time I read it, I really didn't understand it. And then the next day I read it again, and it started to make a little bit of sense. But then the third time I read it, the next day it just clicked. It was just like a light bulb went off. And I just understood how we were going to use this technology to rebuild our entire financial system on blockchain technology. And we built the Internet incorrectly 35 years ago. We built it on top of the banking system and the credit card system. But the Internet's supposed to be a peer to peer system and that's what blockchain technology enables. It enables that peer to peer financial system to exist. And that's what I realized 11 years ago. And that's why I've been so passionate about this technology ever since then.
- [03:14]
B
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- [04:37]
A
Yeah, well, as you know, there's been a war on the industry during the Biden administration. So Trump's first term, I would say he was neutral to negative on bitcoin. Biden was, you know, and Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler. I mean there was an outlaw outright war on the industry. You know, my company off the chain capital. We're one of those companies got debanked. We had our bank account at JP Morgan, and when Silvergate went down and we had our other account at Silvergate, you know, we had to close our Silvergate account. JP Morgan sent us a letter saying that we had to close our account with them within 30 days. And so we're on this mad scramble trying to find a replacement bank just to do basic banking activities like pay our bills, declare our transactions, and to make payroll. And, you know, but, you know, there was a total war on the industry. Trump has had a, you know, 180. He is very pro bitcoin, pro blockchain. Now he understands that, you know, the US Has a strategic advantage to attract all these companies that we've chased out of the US over the last four years to bring them back in to the US and for the US to dominate the blockchain industry, just like we dominated the Internet industry 35 years ago. And so he has a once in a lifetime opportunity to bring those companies back. And so he's hired Howard Ludnick to be the Commerce Secretary. And for people who don't know who Howard is, he's the CEO or former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Cantor Fitzgerald is the company that manages the Tether Treasury. So he manages $130 billion worth of tether treasury assets for, for the company. And Tether is the fourth largest cryptocurrency in the world. And so, you know, Howard's job is to bring the blockchain companies back to the United States. And I'm very excited for the Trump administration. And with Howard Ludnick and Scott Bessette, the new Treasury Secretary is a bitcoiner, Bobby Kennedy. And this is public information, but, you know, Bobby has 90% of his net worth in Bitcoin. JD Vance has half of his net worth in bitcoin. You know, I meant her. I mentioned, you know, Howard Ludnick while ago, he was on a recent podcast that he said he had hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin. The Small Business Administration administrator, Kelly Loeffler. Kelly used to run a blockchain company called Back B A, you know, B A K T, you know, before she became the senator from Georgia. And so she's pro bitcoin, pro blockchain. You have Elon Musk in there who owns Bitcoin and SpaceX and Tesla. You know, the, you know, Chelsea Gabbert is very pro bitcoin and pro blockchain. So, I mean, it's. The whole administration is very pro our industry now.
- [07:50]
B
Yeah, Quite a turnaround to your point, from operation choke point 2.0 and all those discriminatory practices that blocked companies like yours from being able to access banking services to now having all of these individuals in positions of power who are essentially pro Bitcoin. You brought up a stablecoin, you brought up tether. Stablecoins are providing this massive amount of Demand now for U.S. treasuries. And Treasuries are sort of what underpin the entire system. For the longest time they were that risk free asset. Although some watching this might debate if they're still risk free. But I would love to get into your bit bonds. Please explain exactly what those are and what your mission is to, to try to create these for the traditional financial system.
- [08:32]
A
Yeah, so to protect the US dollar and to protect our, our financial system, we need to have a strong demand for U.S. treasuries. And you mentioned tether and stablecoins provide some of that demand. But another way to increase demand is by offering what's called a bit bond. And so Perry Ann Boring and I came up with this idea a couple years ago and we just kind of sat on it until recently, but now is the time to roll this out. And so basically what a bit bond is, it's another form of treasury debt. So treasury issues out bills, notes and bonds today, what a bit bond is, it's basically the same thing as a Treasury bond, but there's a little kicker to it. And the kicker is you, you add a little bit of Bitcoin to the bond. And the reason you want to do that is you want to entice people, you want to create demand for that bond. And the way bonds and interest rates work, they're inversely, inversely related to. So if the price of the bond goes up, if you create more demand for the bond and the price goes up, then the interest paid goes down. So if you create more demand for the bonds, then the US government doesn't have to pay as much as interest payments. They could offer a lower interest rate if there's more demand. And Michael Saylor figured this out with his convertible issues. So he's been issuing out debt at basically a zero percent rate with no covenants, because he has basically a bitcoin kicker in there. And you could do the same thing with our treasury debt. And so the example I gave in the white paper is that if the US government issued out $100 billion worth of debt in a 10 year treasury bond, a bit bond, you could take 1% of that. So take 1 billion of the hundred billion buy Bitcoin with that at $100,000 of Bitcoin, that's 10,000 Bitcoin that that buys. And so when that bond matures, the person, the company or the owner, the eventual owner of that $100 billion worth of bonds, not only do they get the face value, they get the hundred billion dollars back, but they also get the 10,000 bitcoin that come along with that. And if they're getting that 10,000 Bitcoin, well they're willing to accept less than the four and a half percent interest rate that current 10 year bonds are paying. You know, maybe they'll accept zero percent interest. And if they have the chance to get the, you know, the 10,000 Bitcoin too. So it's a way to, like I said, create more demand, lower the interest rate that the government has to pay. And in the way the bond market works is that you, the U.S. treasury sells the bonds. There's 24 primary dealers that they sell to. It's an auction format. And so you know, the goal is just try it, you know, issue out $100 billion worth of BIT bonds with 1% of it backed by bitcoin and test the market, see what the demand is. And because Michael Saylor has already tested this and he's getting zero percent interest, I would think that a US government backed, you know, it's backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, you're going to get your money back, the face value back. Plus the pro rata bitcoin, I think those would sell for zero percent interest. And there's a chance they actually could sell above par value, above face value. So it actually generates cash flow to the Treasury. And so the goal is just to have the treasury try it and just, it's not, it's not very complicated to do. And you know, and if we can get zero percent interest and get above face value, it basically bails out the debt that we've accumulated over the past, you know, 30 or 40 years.
- [12:38]
B
Right. And the idea is because of the compound annual growth rate of bitcoin being what I think 40% or something compared to how they're just continually debasing the US dollar and destroying the purchasing. That is why this is such a sweetener, because it pretty much has outperformed every other asset. So why not include it as a component blended with these credit products including treasuries. Right. Because the bitcoin will probably outperform everything.
- [13:05]
A
Right, exactly. It provides that incentive. You want to increase the Demand for our debt. And then that helps the United States. It supports the financial system, it makes it more robust. And you know, it's just another way that Bitcoin helps, helps things, helps people, helps the financial markets. You know. You know, people always ask me like, you know, what is bitcoin? And it's a lot of things. You know, it's freedom, technology. It's, you know, it's a way to protect your savings against inflation. It's a way to do financial transactions without the permission of a government or a bank. And this is just another use case for Bitcoin is to back our treasury debt with it.
- [13:48]
B
So what would the process look like of actually implementing this? Like who would have to sign off on it? And would it, would this be something essentially issued by the Treasury?
- [13:57]
A
Yeah, it would be issued by the Treasury. The Treasury Secretary has full authority to issue out debt. And this is just another form of debt. So it doesn't need congressional approval. It's just a different version of debt. Instead of a, a bill or a note or a bond, it's just a new version of a, of a bond and we just call it a bit bond.
- [14:18]
B
Do we need a strategic reserve of Bitcoin first?
- [14:21]
A
You don't, no. You raise the, you know, you sell $100 billion of the bonds, you take 1% of that 1 billion of that, you buy Bitcoin with it. And the reserve is the Bitcoin that you buy. And that's set aside in a separate account that's sitting there for 10 years. If it's a 10 year bond, the Bitcoin's just sitting there for 10 years. When that bond matures, the treasury pays the face value of the bond plus the bondholder gets their pro rata share of that 10,000 Bitcoin.
- [14:53]
B
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- [16:48]
A
No. We included this on white paper too. There's de minimis risk to the treasury and de minimis risk to the bondholder. The bondholder is guaranteed to get their face value, their investment back. Right. They're gonna get their, they put a million dollars into a bond, they're gonna get a million dollars back guaranteed by the US government. The only question is how much will the Bitcoin be worth in dollar terms when they get the Bitcoin issued out, you know, paid out in 10 years when that bond matures? That, that's the only question. Even if it's zero, even if Bitcoin goes to zero, the bondholder still gets their face value back.
- [17:28]
B
Right? Right.
- [17:29]
A
And then if it goes to zero, The Treasury's out 1%. Right?
- [17:33]
B
That's right.
- [17:34]
A
No, but, but the interest rate that they're paying instead of paying four and a half percent which is the current rate, if you add a bit, you know, bitcoin kicker to this, it's not me that's not lower the interest rate more than 1%, you know, could lower it all four and a half percent. And you, you know, you do the math over that. Over 10, you know, over 10 years, you know, there's, it's very little risk.
- [17:57]
B
To the US government and they really need to do something to tackle Our total interest expense because right now it's sitting at like 1.4 trillion annually. So this something that's very needed in terms of just reforming so that we could get out of debt. I want to talk to you just a little bit more about your company had a price prediction. I know you don't love to talk about bitcoin's price, but to your point about how this is going to outperform and there's this massive asymmetric opportunity and you could just risk 1% when it comes to bitcoin, what does that look like? What valuations are you forecasting? Potentially, yeah.
- [18:34]
A
So we use several models and this is the one of the issues I had when I first learned about bitcoin. I knew what the price was. We all know what the price of bitcoin was, but we don't know what the value is. And it took us a long time to figure out how to create models to value bitcoin. And right now we have like five different models that we use. A lot of these people know already, there's like the power flow model, stock to flow model, there's Metcalf model. So Metcalfe is you square the number of users, you multiply that times the transactional value flowing through the bitcoin ecosystem and that creates a model. We use stock to flow with gold. We use trend line analysis. And so when I look at all of our models, they're indicating that bitcoin is significantly undervalued today. And so, I mean even today bitcoin should be around $190,000. And it's trading for, you know, about $100,000 less than that. And when we look at our models looking out over the next 12 months, the models are indicating that bitcoin at a, at a minimum should be 500,000. But it's probably going to be likely over a million. And we will look at over five years. And by 2030 the models are saying that bitcoin could be worth, you know, anywhere from $8 million to $16 million.
- [19:57]
B
Wow.
- [19:58]
A
You know, in just, in the next five years. And so with the possibility that the Lummis bill passes, the US Government starts buying bitcoin. Other countries start buying bitcoin. Companies. More and more companies are buying Bitcoin. The ETFs are buying Bitcoin. And you have to remember there's only three and an eighth bitcoin generated every 10 minutes. That's 450 bitcoin a day, which is 164,000 bitcoin a year that's generated. And Michael Saylor's buying 200,000 bitcoin a year. The ETFs are buying a million or so bitcoin a year. If the Lummisville passes, the US government's buying 200,000 Bitcoin a year, and there's only 164,000 Bitcoin being generated each year. And so the price has to go up. And like I said, our models are indicating that people are significantly underestimating how high bitcoin's going to go. And, you know, I'm in the bucket that it's going to be over a million dollars later this year.
- [21:05]
B
Later this year. I mean, Brian, you're one of the most bullish people I know, and I love talking to you because it takes away the bearishness that I sometimes have, especially when I look at the macro environment. But I want to talk to you about orange pilling people, because sometimes as the price clim. One of two things, people get very excited, right? They fomo now they want to pile in at the top, so to speak. But then on the flip side, you have people who say, oh, well, now I missed the boat. It's 100k. I'll never get in. It's a trend that I missed. You put out this amazing movie, God Bless Bitcoin, which I know is such a passion project for you and Kelly, and I'm so honored that I got to be a part of it. It's such a good orange pill introduction to Bitcoin, that it's my go to. To share with people. Can you just talk about the behind it and why? Even if people are looking at this and they're new, or maybe they have family members or friends who are like, no, I missed the boat, or it's too expensive. I'm. I'm behind it. Doesn't matter. Now, what do you say to them? And why is that movie maybe a good place to start?
- [22:07]
A
Yeah, well, one of the reasons it's such a good movie is because you're a narrator. You did such a great job narrating the movie. Natalie, thank you. I mean, we were so happy to have you, you know, help us with this. So, you know, the movie is about the moral and ethical reasons behind bitcoin. So when. When I first learned about bitcoin, I understood it as a technology, right? I. I wasn't thinking about it as a way to make money. I just thought it was better technology than what we're using today. But then after I dug into it and understood the, the freedom aspects of this and how it helps, you know, mankind and how it's more ethical and more moral form of money than, you know, our current system. You know, I just got interested in, you know, you know, what, you know, what did the sacred scriptures say about money? And I started just, you know, understanding this for myself. I was just curious. And then after I learned about, you know, what money really is and how, you know, we should treat money and how we should use it to help other people, you know, I, you know, I talked Kelly into helping me like, you know, like let's tell the story and I could write a book or make a movie or do whatever. And I've never done any of those. And we decided to make the movie just because I'm a visual learner. I'd rather learn that way than read a book. And so we went on this journey over the last two and a half years to make the movie. And it just talks about the moral and ethical reasons that bitcoin is important. We base it on sacred scriptures and then what other leaders say about money. And so that's what the movie is about. It's just about the moral and ethical reasons that bitcoin's important.
- [23:52]
B
It's such a positive movie, so many prominent figures in it. If you guys are watching this, you're fans of Robert Kiyosaki, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Saylor, Tom Lee. I mean all the biggest voices are in it. So again, I was just so, so grateful to be a part of it. To circle back on the bitbonds. A lot of people now are talk, talking about just the question of the US Dollar. And you mentioned if we want demand for our US debt, we need, there needs to be some, some change. Do you think that ultimately things are, are going to evolve into just having a neutral kind of currency? I mean, why do we need all these different fiat currencies? Why do we need the dollar at all if bitcoin is both the store of value and it's a peer to peer currency and medium of exchange.
- [24:41]
A
Yeah. So one of the problems with bitcoin in the United States is that we really can't use it as currency because it's taxed as property. So back in 2014, the IRS said that Bitcoin's taxed as property just like it they tax your Apple stock or your, you know, your Nvidia stock. And so the reason we don't go to Starbucks and spend our Apple stock is because it's taxes property, you can't really spend it and so you have to convert it back into dollars before you use it. And so, you know, it's just, it's too cumbersome to spend bitcoin because if you spend it, you have to report to the IRS what you paid for the bitcoin when you bought it and the day you spent it. You have to tell them what it was worth when you spent it. And then you have to calculate the difference. And if you have a gain on that, then you have to file a schedule D and pay a capital gains tax on that. So it's just too cumbersome to use it in other countries, though, like Germany, Singapore, Portugal, Switzerland, Hong Kong. You know, bitcoin is tax free, so people use it in other countries more as currency. But here in the US until the tax law changes, we really can't use it as currency.
- [25:58]
B
Right. And there's talk about a de minimis amount, so you could transact under, you know, maybe a couple hundred dollars even. I think they've been having trouble passing. But it would be great to like everything under 10,000 or something. It's just exempt from, from being taxed. Do you think that there's a plan to someday back the dollar with bitcoin? Some people think that there's some, some strategy that they're not revealing yet. Maybe that's why we don't have that strategic bitcoin reserve yet, because there's some plan in motion that we might not be privy to. Do you agree with that?
- [26:30]
A
I think there are talks about that. Eric Trump over in the bitcoin conference in Maina, and just recently, about a week ago, he was talking about making, and he called it domestic crypto tax free. So I don't know what domestic crypto is. I've never heard that term before because crypto is, you know, it's, it's on the blockchain, it's international. I don't think there's such thing as a domestic crypto. But, you know, hopefully that includes bitcoin. And so we'll have to, you know, we'll have to wait and see what the Trump administration says about making bitcoin tax free and what domestic crypto means. And I'm sure they're talking about, you know, how we could use the, you know, use bitcoin to, you know, support the dollar and, you know, just to circle back, you know, the bit bond is a way of doing that, you know, you want to support, you know, our dollars are debt based. So if you support our debt with bitcoin, you're supporting the dollar with bitcoin.
- [27:27]
B
Yeah. And it essentially pays for itself. Right. With the bitcoin appreciation. Well, Brian, anything else that you want to share you think people should be thinking about right now with everything happening?
- [27:38]
A
Yeah, I just think that if you. If you're new to bitcoin or you. You don't understand it yet 100%. And this is, you know, something I tell everybody. You know, take the time, you know, it took me, you know, probably a hundred hours to really dive into it, understand it. And you know what? You know, the movie helps. You know, go to God bless bitcoin. You can watch it free on YouTube. It's an hour and a half. You know, we did about 70 hours worth of interviews, and we, you know, cut it down to hour and a half to the most important parts of what bitcoin means. And, you know, you could spend. You could spend maybe an hour and a half watching that, maybe three or four other hours just learning about bitcoin. You know, just. You need to educate yourself. Bitcoin is the tool that you could use to protect your future savings. And, you know, it just, you know, if you don't understand what that means, you need to understand what that means. And, you know, it just takes time to do it. So, you know, just make the time. And I know everybody's really busy, but make the time to, you know, to understand what bitcoin is and how it could help, you know, save your money for the future.
- [28:49]
B
Right. We work so hard to make our money. We should spend a little bit of time working to understand how to keep it, how to maintain the value. Absolutely. Okay, so I'm going to link to the bitbond white paper in the show notes as well as God bless bitcoin. I have it on my page, so I hope everyone goes to see it. We're trying to get a billion views. I'm not sure what the progress is on that, but I hope so. And I also love your message, Brian, of just. Just hold on and. And don't sell your bitcoin too soon. Because I know that, you know, from maybe selling bitcoin later on, it goes up and then you think about some of those purchases and you're like, oh, wow, that's now worth a lot more money. Right?
- [29:29]
A
Yeah. I mean, the story I like to tell is this is 2016, so Bitcoin was around a thousand dollars, and I bought some at 250. So I'm feeling like, yeah, I made some good money. And, you know, the, you know, in two years And I sold a thousand bitcoin, or excuse me, I sold 50 Bitcoin at $1,000 to pay cash for my 2016 Mercedes E550. And so that I still have the car, and that 50 Bitcoin today is worth what, $5 million? So.
- [30:05]
B
Oh my gosh, it's a 5 million dollar car.
- [30:07]
A
Yeah. With a hundred. I have a hundred thousand miles on the car.
- [30:13]
B
I always find those stories so fascinating because I'm sure it's just a. A mind spin. You look at it and you're like, oh, wow, all. All that I could have had if I didn't. I didn't sell bitcoin. But.
- [30:24]
A
But I'm still buying bitcoin today. I mean, I just bought more a couple weeks ago at 99. 700.
- [30:30]
B
Right.
- [30:30]
A
So whenever I get extra dollars I want to save for the future, you know, I stuff it into bitcoin.
- [30:37]
B
Yeah, well, that's the message. Brian, it's always so, so great to talk to you. Thank you so much. Hopefully the next time we record, it'll be in person, but I'll have all the information and just really appreciate you coming on the show. Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories. Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss any new episodes. If you can, turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review, it really helps the show grow organically with new listeners. We have a free weekly newsletter. You can sign up@thenewsblock.substack.com and remember, this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing should constitute as official investment advice, and you should always do your own research. I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach out@infoalkingbitcoin.com I'll see you next time.