Checkmatey (James Check): Bitcoin Investor Behavior and On-Chain Analysis 101

Summary

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Episode: James Check (Checkmatey) – Bitcoin Investor Behavior & On-Chain Analysis 101

Date: March 17, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Natalie Brunell interviews James Check (aka Checkmatey), renowned on-chain analyst, on the basics and deeper insights of on-chain analysis in Bitcoin. They discuss how on-chain data provides a window into investor psychology, identifying moments of profit-taking versus capitulation, and how these cycles manifest in Bitcoin’s price action. The episode dives into interpreting charts, understanding what really drives market moves, the roles of retail and institutional investors, and current topics like quantum computing FUD and key market myths.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Psychology of Markets & On-Chain Analysis (00:00–05:39)

• Chopsolidation and Emotional Cycles:
  James explains that sideways markets frustrate investors, leading to overreactions on green/red candles, while pointing out how conflicts and news stories amplify these swings but often mask the “chopsolidation” beneath the surface.

  • “People are going to get super excited on every green candle. They’re going to get super bearish on every red candle. …what’s it actually doing? Chopping sideways and it just, it frustrates people to tears.” (00:00, James Check)

• On-Chain Analysis as a Lens into Psychology:
  Bitcoin’s transparent ledger lets analysts see what actors are doing—spot traders, leveraged traders, ETF flows—and connect them to human behavior.

• James’s Personal Journey:
  James’s initial foray into Bitcoin was at the 2017 top, with early mistakes helping him map out behavioral metrics that flag when “smart money” is taking profit vs. “dumb money” capitulating at a loss.

  • “I bought the 2017 top. …My first ever bitcoin buy is above the top wick of the candle. Like you couldn't have bought higher than me if you tried.” (00:57, James Check)

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2. On-Chain Analysis 101: Understanding the Framework (03:17–10:39)

• The Three Axes Framework:
  Bitcoin’s supply can be analyzed in a “cube”—axes are:

  1. Are coins moving or HODLed?
     • 1% of supply moves daily (not always the same 1%).
  2. Are coins in profit or loss?
     • At bull tops: old coins in profit are spent.
     • At bear bottoms: top buyers capitulate at loss.
  3. Who owns them? (Cohorts by holding time):
     • Long-term (5+ months) vs. short-term holders.

• Interpreting the Cube (07:25):
  The framework helps identify if coins are moving due to panic or profit, and whose pain or euphoria matters for market extremes.

• Quote Highlight:

  • “…when everyone feels safe to do something, they're kind of the last person to jump in the pool. And then there's no one else to buy or there's no one else to sell, you're kind of doing the exact extreme thing that you shouldn't be doing. You got to flip it around.” (09:54, James Check)

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3. Why Most Investors Get it Wrong – HODLing vs. Trading (10:39–14:55)

• Trading vs. HODLing:
  James discourages trading for most people, stating on-chain insights are best used to steady hands and manage emotions, not to chase tops or bottoms.

• Distribution of Buy Prices:

  • At the all-time high (ATH), 70% of wealth had a cost basis above 95k; after the decline, that dropped to 45%, as coins “flowed downhill” to new buyers at lower prices.
  • “It's like soil rolling down a hill. …it cascaded again and eventually you just have too much soil at the bottom of the hill. And what happens? The market starts rallying, people start taking profit and the coins start migrating back up the hill…” (12:18, James Check)

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4. Interpreting Bull and Bear Cycles with On-Chain Metrics (14:55–19:01)

• Revive Supply & The 2025 Non-Rally:
  Revive supply shows bursts of old coins being spent, often at local tops.

  • In 2025, despite buys from large actors (like Michael Saylor), an extraordinary amount of profit-taking across every cohort kept prices suppressed (“parabola envy”).

• Insight:
  “When folks say why did Saylor buy 10,000 coins and the market went sideways or down, it’s like because Hodler sold 12,000 yesterday and 15,000 today…” (15:07, James Check)

• Inflection at 80k (Q4 2025):
  Following a major selloff, older coins stopped moving, and the setup shifted from profit-taking to awaiting capitulation by latecomers.

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5. Capitulation and Time Pain – How Bottoms Form (18:05–24:01)

• Types of Bear Market Pain:

  1. Immediate price loss
  2. Evaporation of unrealized gains
  3. Time – prolonged sideways grind

• Chopsolidation:
  Prolonged sideways action grinds down sentiment as much as sharp drops.

  • “The time component… that compounding feeling of it's down and it's not going back up, that just kills people's emotions.” (18:07, James Check)

• Loss-Realizing Sellers:
  Major bear bottoms usually culminate when buyers from the previous bull finally capitulate (e.g., 2021 buyers selling in 2022 at a loss).

• Fear as Buy Signal:
  Massive on-chain loss events (market-wide realized pain) are indicators of bottom formation, not peaks. Smart money accumulates during these periods.

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6. Current Cycle Analysis: Odds, Scenarios, and Mean Reversion (26:19–32:09)

• 2025–2026 Bear Structure:
  The drawn-out “chopsolidation” of 2025 built up pain, with major capitulations in Nov 2025 and Feb 2026 releasing pressure.

• Chance of a Deep Drop?
  James models multiple mean-reversion anchors; at 70k, we are already in the bottom 20% of historical pricing deviation. A drop into the 30–40k range would be unprecedented (“one of one event”), with odds strongly stacked for upside (“Q5 territory”).

• Quote:
  “If you walked in any casino with 80% odds, you would roll that dice every day.” (31:41, James Check)

• Advice:
  DCA through the bottom: “Just buy the whole bottom DCA, the whole thing. …You won’t be there for the absolute bottom; you’ll be too scared or asleep.” (31:14, James Check)

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7. On Exchanges, Data Clarity, & Analyst Perspective (32:09–35:30)

• Exchange Opaqueness:
  Many trades occur inside exchanges off-chain. Data science teams map addresses and adjust for noise, but James asserts the “background noise” is manageable and deviations rarely exceed 5%—enough signal to see the big shifts.

• Quote:
  “I’m looking for breaks of that noise. …Once you can see what is noise and what is signal, it clears up.” (35:24, James Check)

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8. Debunking FUD & Myths: Quantum Computing and 118x Multiplier (35:30–41:37)

• Quantum Computing Risk:

  • James sees no evidence quantum risk is suppressing price; believes a practical threat is at least a decade out.
  • Major pools are vulnerable eventually, but a rushed fix is as dangerous as no fix.
  • “I think bit360 makes sense. I think not doing anything is dangerous and doing something too drastic is also very dangerous.” (39:14, James Check)

• The "118x Multiplier" Myth:

  • No, $1 in = $118 in market cap isn’t reality. Actual bull market multiples top out at about 8x; typical ETF flows show ~32x. Myths like this exist for “engagement farm” purposes.

  • “People love to say, ‘oh, there’s 118x multiple’ …this is why people are sad.” (41:37, James Check)

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9. Price Outlook – Where is the Bottom? (41:37–43:06)

• Current Range Expectation:
  • “My framework for now is we bottom somewhere in the 2024 chopsolidation range…between 50 and 70, that’s where I think we find some kind of a bottom…” (41:46, James Check)
  • Major sentiment/psychology shift happened at 60k.

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10. Retail vs. Institutional: Who’s Owning Bitcoin? (43:06–48:06)

• Saturation Point for Hardcore Hodlers?

  • James posits that self-custody growth may be nearing saturation–hundreds of thousands are true “hardcore” bitcoiners versus millions of holders overall.

  • “I fear that we're approaching the saturation point of like self custody, cold card wielding Hodlers.” (43:06, James Check)

• Rise of Retail via ETFs:

  • A large share of ETF ownership is retail, and ETFs are “hodling” harder than spot retail ever did.
  • “Most of the sellers in this down cycle have not been ETFs. …retail who bought Spot. …But the ETFs, the majority of the holders are retail. …most of the outflows we've seen about 11.2 billion since the all time high…look like a basis trade, not a loss of confidence.” (44:35, James Check)

• Institutions’ Role:

  • The future upside may come not from mass retail, but tiny allocation shifts by massive pools of institutional capital.

  • “Bitcoin mastered its freshwater pond. …it's now swimming out that estuary into the big bad salty ocean… it needs to go out to find more food. …people who have been like 100% bitcoin, they're divesting out. …The tradfi world is also going to divest from a 100% 0 bitcoin position to just 0.1%. But those 0.1% are more money than you and I will ever dream of.” (46:32, James Check)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Markets do not go in a straight line…Eventually it needs a rest.” (19:01, James Check)
• “If you understand why something happens, you can control your response, not the market.” (10:55, James Check)
• “You won't be there for the absolute bottom–you’ll be too scared to do anything. Just buy the whole bottom DCA.” (31:14, James Check)
• “The process of self custody has always been too hard for the average person. But the ETFs…are hoddling hard, more hardcore than most.” (43:06, James Check)

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Conclusion & Where to Find James (48:13–End)

• James Check’s content:
  Charts and newsletter at checkonchain.com
  • “Every chart that you saw here, they're all free. And also a newsletter where we go over this twice a week.” (48:13, James Check)
• Final Note:
  • “Buy the whole bottom. Don't fantasize over the bottom. You won't be there for it.” (48:41, James Check)
  • “Keep DCA’ing.” (48:45, Natalie Brunell)

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Useful Timestamps

• 00:00 – Bitcoin’s emotional market “chopsolidation” intro
• 03:17 – On-chain 101: The three axes of supply analysis
• 10:39 – HODLing vs. Trading philosophy
• 14:55 – Revive supply and profit-taking cycles
• 18:05 – Types of pain in bear markets
• 19:01 – “Chopsolidation” and its effects
• 26:19 – 2025-26 capitulation events
• 30:16 – Odds of a drop to 30–40k, mean reversion
• 39:25 – 118x multiplier myth explained
• 43:06 – Core retail vs. ETF retail and institutional flows
• 46:32 – Institutional “rotation” thesis
• 48:13 – Where to find more of James Check’s work

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This summary captures essential topics, charts, and honest market wisdom for seasoned and new listeners alike. For more, visit James Check’s charts, and don’t forget: buy the whole bottom, don’t chase it!

Transcript

[A]

We've had a sell off to 80k, a very quick one down to 60k. The market just needs to go sideways for like months and months and months and months and people are going to get super excited on every green candle. They're going to get super bearish on every red candle. There's conflicts breaking out everywhere. Bitcoin goes down, up, down, up. But what's it actually doing? Chopping sideways and it just, it frustrates people to tears.

[B]

Hey everyone, welcome back to the show. We've got a spot special treat for you. An on chain analysis 101 with James Check aka Checkmatey. James, thanks so much for joining me.

[A]

G' day Natalie. How you doing? Thanks for having me on.

[B]

I'm doing well. I'm excited that you're a first time guest on Coinsories here and I want to learn the basics because I sometimes stare at these charts. I have no clue what I'm looking at. I don't understand how it tells you something about investor behavior and where Bitcoin's price might go. So can you give us a lay of the land because you seem to be an expert in this area and you have some charts to show us, right?

[A]

Yeah. So on Chain analysis is a very strange and weird field that in many ways I view it as a lens into human psychology. And Bitcoin is really the first asset that is important enough, big enough and frankly transparent enough that we can actually see people making decisions. So really what is bitcoin? I mean aside from all the monetary properties and everything, it is a database of who owned what and when. It's a big permanent record of who owned what. Now we can look at spot trading on Binance and Coinbase. We can look at futures, you know, what's going on in the leverage market, options, ETFs. But there's a thing that stitches all these things together and that is the bitcoin network itself. So in many ways what on chain data is and what my kind of expertise is is I actually connect all of those different market sectors and what's a really interesting dynamic, you'll see the same pattern of human behavior. I went back and studied my own dumb self. I bought the 2017 top. That was like my initially and my claim to fame is my, my because the coinbase had an extra fee for Aussie dollars. My first ever bitcoin buy is above the top wick of the candle. Like you couldn't have bought higher than me if you tried. So I learned about markets in the 2018 bear got fleeced, as most people did. But I, I just like, it was the first time I bought something. Something about markets fascinated me and in particular was the psychology why you feel super bullish at the local high and why you go, oh, I'll sell back here and buy it back later, always at the local bottom. And then it goes up again. So now I go back and look at myself and I have metrics that show when the smart money is taking profit and when they're. And when the dumb money is capitulating a loss. And I'm like, yep, that was me. Yep, that was me. That. And I'm like, I'm making all those mistakes. So I try to apply that framework and say, well, if we can see the smart money selling and we can see when the dumb money sell low, what if I want to flip that around and kind of study the chessboard and kind of, you know, try and have an advantage in that sense?

[B]

I mean, it's all fascinating. So I would love for you to kind of start us at chapter one. I mean, give us some charts, tell us what you're looking for. Like, what do we need to be paying attention to? Especially for folks that they're not finance backgrounds. They don't look at charts for a living. How should we be evaluating what Bitcoin's doing?

[A]

Yes, so I'm actually going to start with something. This is a diagram that I use to just try and help people understand what we're looking at in the first place. So I think about the entire bitcoin supply. And for those who are just listening, it's basically this is like a grid system. Think about. It's like a 3D box. The whole bitcoin supply, just think about as a space. Now, we can divide the bitcoin supply into three axes. There's many, but these are the three big ones. Are the coins moving or not? Are they huddled or are they being spent? So that's kind of your first axis. Now, Generally speaking, about 1% of the supply moves every day, but that's not exactly 1% of the supply. Many coins transact many times. So total volume is about 1% of the Bitcoin supply. But not. That's not 1% of the Bitcoin supply, if that makes sense. Now, the second axis is why are those coins moving? And it's generally because of one or two reasons. They're in profit or they're in loss. So now we've got two axes. And you can kind of think about this and say, well, at a bull Market top what do I expect to see? I expect a lot of coins that were bought a long time ago to be in a lot of profit. And then what's going to kill a bull when those coins take profit? So you're moving from unrealized profits, coins that aren't moving but are in profit. And then the third axis is by who? And you'll often hear us talking about cohorts in my world, long term holder, short term holder. The boundary between those is about five months. That statistically speaking, when coins just tend to be huddled, once they get to that five month threshold, they're probably going to be held for a lot longer. The probability of spend is much lower. So you can now start building the puzzle and you can say okay, at a bull market top I want to see people who bought three to five years ago in a lot of profit spending their coins. That's my problem that I'm trying to solve. So this is my framework for thinking about that problem at a bear market bottom what do I expect to see? People who bought approximately six months to one year ago at the top huddled through the whole bear capitulating big losses. So now we've got a framework to actually think about. It's not even about like what chart do I look at? Like what does this chart mean? It's what's the problem I trying to solve? What do I want to see at these kind of market extremes? Let me pause there because I think it's just like a nice framework to introduce and you can apply this for anything, right? You can put leverage in here. You can all do all sorts of metrics, but this is how I think about the world of on chain data,

[B]

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[A]

Yes. Yeah, no, no, totally. So again, imagine the bitcoin supply is this cube. The size of each cube, right? We're dividing up the bitcoin supply and saying, okay, if 1% of the supply is moving, then that means 99% of it isn't. That's your X axis. So you can then say within that I only care about huddled coins, right? I want to see what's happening in the world of huddled coins. You look at the right hand or the left hand side, sorry, and then you can say like, how many of those coins are currently in profit? Meaning they were bought at 10k or 5k or 30k or $100. So we can see the proportion of the supply that is in profit and the support proportion that is in loss. So really at the core magic of this axis, the Y axis is you can see where every coin was last moved on chain and we approximate this is basically being the cost basis. And you can look at it when what's the cost base of people who bought within the last five months? What's the cost base of people who bought four years ago? You can actually model out and see where is kind of those average points of control. So what we're really doing is looking at other coins moving or not, because that's a signal are they in profit or are they in loss? Because that's the human incentive. Why are they being huddled? Are they being Huddled because they're just in a lot of paper profit are they being spent because they're at a lot of lot of profit are they being spent because they were bought at the top and suddenly they're down 50% and they go, what am I doing here? And they just go, I can't do it. And they capitulate. And then that final axis, though, the Z axis going into the screen is, who are these people? How do we classify? Because a coin that was bought yesterday, that transactional loss, who cares? Coin that was bought yesterday and takes a 5% profit, who cares? It's just daily chop. But someone who bought 12 months ago and crystallizes a 50% loss, that's pain. That's like actual measurable pain. So you can look at things like how many coin days, which is like a holding time period, how many coin days, days did this poor person who held their coin for that long crystallize a loss? And what generally happens, human beings at the end of the day, what is all this stuff? It is human herd behavior. You've got a very small pool of smart money who can go counter trend and go against the grain, and you've got a much larger group of people who behave based on their own, you know, their psychology, right? They're the kind of natural drivers. People feel safe to take leverage at 110k bitcoin because it's just green candles all day. Man, this thing just keeps going up. And likewise, journalists will only ever write a bearish article not at 126, but at, you know, 60. Why? Because now it feels safe to jump in the bearish pool. There's enough red candles behind it. They start going, it's time to kill this thing again. It feels safe. And human beings, ironically, one of the great ironies of markets, and there are many, is the reason so few people are good at markets, is your default instinct is almost perfectly wrong. And when everyone feels safe to do something, they're kind of the last person to jump in the pool. And then there's no one else to buy or there's no one else to sell, you're kind of doing the exact extreme thing that you shouldn't be doing. You got to flip it around.

[B]

That's so fascinating. So being someone who studied this for a while, do you feel like you get a better sense now that encourages you almost to trade it? Like you, you're seeing the signs come in that we might be hitting a top, might as well sell and buy back lower, right? Like, is that where you're at no.

[A]

So this is where. So for me, I don't write for traders and people ask me all the time like, do you trade off this? Like I can trade. I just hate trading. I think trading honestly, there's a very small 0.01% of the population who is attuned enough to be a trader. I don't recommend it. I think, I don't think anyone should do it. The way I like to think about this data is it helps me huddle and I try to help my readers huddle because it's very much about understanding the why. If you understand why something might happen, will happen, has happened, you can then when it happens, right? In my framework, the only thing you can control is your decisions. That's all you can control. You can't control the market. It's just gonna, it's like the tide, if you swim against it, it's gonna drag you out to sea. So the best thing to do is to think about scenarios long ahead of time and even if they don't happen, you've thought it through. So as an example, when we were trading up above 110k, I was describing 95k as the bull's last stand. And the reason I called it that. Let me jump across to this chart. This is actually a plot, it's a bar chart. For those who are listening. On the x axis is price. Think about like what is the, like a strike price or what is the price of bitcoin. And then the Y axis or the bar heights shows you how many coins weighted by their USD value have a cost base at that level. So you can actually see where everyone holds their coins now.

[B]

Oh wow.

[A]

At the all time high. This chart above 95k we had 70% of all of the wealth that was ever invested in bitcoin was above 95k. Now it's 45. So we've seen a tremendous amount of people who bought the top. As the price has fallen, those coins have transferred from 110 to 100 to another buyer at 95, down to 90. And then now we're down into the 60s and the 70s. So you're kind of seeing it's like soil rolling down a hill. You've hit a landslide, the soil's come out. It was too heavy up the top and now the ground is starting to fall down and then it hits a valley and right now we're in one of the valleys. There was another valley at 80k and 90k at the start of the year, but bunch of soil deposit There it built up too much and then it cascaded again and eventually you just have too much soil at the bottom of the hill. And what happens? The market starts rallying, people start taking profit and the coins start migrating back up the hill until you get a top heavy market again. So that's my perspective is just thinking about if we got to 95, what does it mean if 70% of all the wealth in bitcoin is underwater? All I know is it's probably not good, right? That was my framework. I was like, it probably means there's a lot of people who are going to start panicking. So my logic was the closer we got to 95, the more you should be dialing up your. It's probably a bear market and the trip down to 80. Now if we had it gone to the moon, who cares? We thought about a bear thesis. It didn't play out, but we thought about that process of when it happens, you're not shocked. That's my actual target. I don't want my readers to ever feel like a deer in the headlights. Even if something doesn't happen, I want to have thought about it ahead.

[B]

So according to this chart, did the majority, like as far as price goes, like the majority of coins were purchased around 80, like 3,4000.

[A]

So, so this is the distribution as of today. So I would describe. There's been three phases. So yes, you're correct. Up until, let's say, November, the vast majority were above 95k 70, 65, depending where you want to measure it. We then had a very, very large cohort of people by that, like January, November, December, January, early February. That bear flag that we had between 80 and 98, that's where a ton of coins are. And as of right now, every time the market rallies, those people are about 50% of the people who are selling because they're just like, they want their money back. They're going to take whatever exit liquidity they can. Now what is really interesting is if you let me just go to this chart, this is in my opinion, why the bull market didn't go up in 2025.

[B]

Oh, good, that I was going to ask you that.

[A]

Yes. So what we did see is a ton, just a ton of old coins come back to life. Now again, for those listening, the metric we're looking at.

[B]

Og.

[A]

Yeah, well, there's some nuance to that. There's always nuance to this stuff, which is why I have a job. So for those listening, this is a metric called Revive Supply. Think about it as the Volume of coins that came back to life. Now I'm using a five, six month threshold here because that's enough time where the statistics line up. That's it's a point in time where if you held Bitcoin for six months, you've given up six months of not owning Nvidia, not earning gold, not doing opportunity costs, right? There's enough in there where when someone goes, I'm just done. And they spend. There's a signal in there, right? It's not your day traders, it's got some meat to it. So it's a volume of coins coming back to life. Now we always see this metric, right? I'm not going to say we will always, forever, but we always see this metric rip higher when the market goes up. So there's a lot of folks who want to say, oh, it's just people consolidating their coins and moving from a cold card to a ledger. I'm like, okay, well they all seem to do it at the all time high. And then the market stops going up anyway. We saw a big burst of these coins, right? About 2 billion worth a day. This is in a per day metric. So 2 billion a day at the ETF high in 2024. And then we saw over 3 billion, 4 billion a day for multiple days through November and December of 2025, sorry, 4. And then if you can see in 2025 it was just this linear trend from 1 billion to 3 billion a day from July all the way through to November. So when, when exactly. So when folks say why did Sailor buy 10,000 coins and the market went sideways or down, it's like because Hodler sold 12,000 yesterday and 15,000 today and another 12,000 today. It just, the scale of it was tremendous. Now there's, there was a lot of narrative about it being OGs. Some of it was we had the biggest like I guess you call it, diversity of coins. Some were 14 years, some were 10 years, some were 6 years, some are 5 years. In terms of the spread of like how old these coins were in 2025, it was the most diverse range that we've ever seen. All time high of 5 year old plus coins, all time high of 10 year old plus coins. But also just tons and tons of people who bought six months ago and watched Nvidia go up and gold go up when they had parabola envy and they rotated out. So you got a ton of those momentum traders as well. So everyone across the spectrum, 2025 was just a tremendous amount of sell side Last insight from this chart, it is collapsing this. Since that November sell off to 80k, this metric is falling off a cliff. So the real story here is we've actually seen an inflection point in human psychology. That 80k level in November was the end of the profit taking. People who owned coins from below 80k just stopped. They're like, I'm good, I'm done, I've done my sell side. So now we're in the phase that is we're looking for people who bought the top to crystallize losses and capitulate at the bottom. So this is the phase that we're

[B]

now at the bottom.

[A]

It tends to. And we tend to have two types of bottom. If you go back and look at all of bitcoin's previous history, I call them the price capitulation. And then there's the time capitulation. Because bear markets have a couple of components. There's three things that hurt in a bear. One that everyone thinks about, which is I bought the top, now I've got a red coin, right, I'm underwater. That's what people think about. Mentally, what they don't think about that actually hurts a whole lot more is I was up 350% and now I'm down to 100. That evaporation of unrealized profit hurts way more most of the time than losses, especially for long term holders. And then the third one that no one thinks about, but they work it out is the time component. It just goes sideways and nowhere. And that compounding feeling of it's down and it's not going back up, that just kills people's emotions.

[B]

Is that what you refer to as chopsolidation?

[A]

Yes. So I've been using the term chop solidation. So it's obviously a portmanteau of consolidation, which is normal market lingo. But there's a metric that I use called the choppiness index. It's a technical model. I'll allow people to just google it themselves, but it's basically like a fuel tank for how long a market can trend for and when it's run a long way. Like I was at a live event the other day and I said bitcoin had bounced like 70k and I said hand up, who knows why bitcoin bounced today? And everyone's giving me all sorts of like technical reasons, like it's because it went down a lot. Like markets just do not go in a straight line. So it doesn't matter how powerful the trend is to the upside or the Downside, eventually it needs a rest. And I think we've had a sell off to 80k, a very quick one, down to 60k. The market just needs to go sideways for like months and months and months and months and people are going to get super excited on every green candle. They're going to get super bearish on every red candle. You know, there's conflicts breaking out everywhere. Bitcoin goes down, up, down, up. But what's it actually doing? Chopping sideways and it just, it frustrates people to tears.

[B]

Yeah. Can you kind of break down exactly this chart? Like what, what we're looking at, I guess the, the col. The years or what are we seeing?

[A]

This is basically the inverse of the previous chart. Rather than looking at revive supply, that's selling in a profit, we're now looking at coins that were acquired at a higher price and they're crystallizing a loss. Now the, you're right, the colors, this is another way I can think about. So the previous chart was show me age bands, coins that are six months to one year, one year to two year, you know, that kind of age range. This one here is another way we can look at it which is what year were they acquired? Right. When did people actually buy these coins? So in 2022, who were the ones that sold the bottom? 2021 buyers. The people who actually sell the bottom of the ones who bought in the bull. Because frankly they're the only ones who can be in a loss. But we get that loss profile, these massive spikes. This is what I was saying before. People huddle, they buy the top, they huddle through the entire bear market. And then here we are in June 2022, they bought at 60k, 50k 55 and they all sell at the same time on 17.6 at the absolute low. So in 2022 this, this is what human behavior is the number one constant in markets. So we got a $2 billion capitulation in June 2022. And in my opinion what we just saw was 2 back to back 2 billion dollar capitulations in November and February.

[B]

Yeah, but I thought those were like leveraged positions being wiped out. So it's not necessarily some like someone's mentality going, ah, I'm gonna sell the bottom. But like they had basically trade set up that if the price does dip below a certain level, they're just wiped out and they had a ton of leverage.

[A]

It's all of the above. It's all of the above. So, so yes, so this is purely looking at the on chain side of the equation, there are going to be people who are sending coins to the exchange to recollateralize or whatever else. Yeah, but what, what am I actually trying to measure here? Fear. Fear, pain. That's actually like what puts a bottom in. It's not good vibes and happy days. It's like, oh my, I think I'm going to get wiped out. I got to sell this thing. I can't look at this price anymore. Like whatever it is, I'm measuring fear. And we got massive amounts of fear in November and February.

[B]

Wait, so we didn't get a bottom though until 2023. Was it that like smaller spike there at the 16,000 range?

[A]

Yes. So, so this is what we're, we hit record. This is the, the two bottoms that we talk about. So in June 2022, Price sold off Three Arrows. So Luna's in the rearview mirror. Three Arrows has just blown up and everyone's gone, oh my, what else is out there? And we hit 17.6 K and we had the biggest capitulation in US dollar history. $2 billion in a day. Then we had the bottom formation begin. This is from June all the way through to November of 2022. And we didn't know FTX was coming, but obviously FTX was coming. We sold off down to 15,6. Now we had a second capitulation event which wasn't as big, actually 1.3 billion. However, what is the real difference for us as Hodlers? Again, I don't write for traders. Would you say the bottom was in at 17:6 in June or was the bottom in when FTX went in? Right. Technically speaking, it was a lower price. So that's the bottom from my perspective again, not caring about buying the bottom wick because it's a fantasy bottom formation. The process where the smart money go, ooh, that's a capitulation event. And that means that people are scared. And that means I am now safe. It is now safe for me as a contrarian to start jumping back in the pool. I'm not going all in, but I'm starting my accumulation pattern because I know people are scared and they're going to sell to me at my price. I don't have to chase them. I'm going to allow the market to come down. They'll sell to me. And that's the time pain component that usually ends in a second capitulation.

[B]

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[A]

Yes, so let me talk that through as well. 2025 as we discussed the market went nowhere and I've heard you talk with many of your guests on your show that like something about 2025 just confused people, how much pent up anxiety and frustration did we have from the market simply just not going up. Right. And you could argue bitcoin was in a bear market against pretty much everything else. So bitcoin that, that built up pain. So we talk about the price capitulation event. In my opinion these two back to back, November and then February. Both of these two, they're, I view them structurally as one thing. It was the release of that like price pain energy. So really there are three things that shake people out, draw drawdowns, which is the evaporation of profit and the losses. So that one I believe, that's why I call this the price pain capit. It may not be the bottom but I do believe we've got a lot of evidence to say that bottom formation, that psychological shift with a smart money go, okay, it's now de risked, may not be the bottom but they're not trying to buy the bottom. They're trying to buy a large position over a meaningful period of time. But they know it's now a de risked market. So that's my current read on the situation again. The whole world is changing day by day. Anything can happen. Like I'm very much in the camp. Like I can't predict the future. You know, I couldn't tell that Iran was going to get who knows what goes on over there, right. Oil spikes and all that kind of stuff. Chaos.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

However, we've seen the bottom formation start that I recall seeing in 2022. We might go lower, but I don't think we're going to go lower down to 20k or to 30k. I think that most of the price damage is done.

[B]

Okay, I'd love to see your next chart but I have had analysts on the show including North Star charts. North Star and I've seen another analyst that does on chain analysis on, on X, I forgot his name. But they both actually have a bottom somewhere in the high 30s, low 40s and panning out to like Q3, Q4. Do you agree or disagree? What are the chances?

[A]

Look, let me answer that question specifically, what are the chances? So sure, anything can happen. First things first. Absolutely anything can happen. Let me just clean this up and get rid of a bunch of stuff we don't need. So markets are a mean reverting beast. And what does mean reversion mean? It means that you've got these anchors that price oscillates around over time and it always wants to, if a pull, if you pull the slingshot too far, it wants to snap Back now, when we talk about mean reversion, the, the most important question is what is your anchor? What is the thing that bitcoin oscillates around? Now the chart that I'm looking at here, think about, it's like an index. It's basically like a, an oscillator that goes from 100 to zero. And what I've basically modeled is nine different anchors that bitcoin has historically oscillated around. Now these can be technical. The 200 day moving average, the 200 week moving average, right, it's Bitcoin slings away from the 200 week through the whole bull cycle and then it comes roaring back to it during the bear. So it's got this gravity that it keeps pulling back. 200 day does the same, but it's a faster type model I've got on chain metrics, which is people's cost basis, time and volume weighted metrics, all these things, power laws in there. There's, there's a bunch of metrics in there that just bitcoin oscillates around. Now when you look at how far away we have stretched to the downside from all of those metrics and you combine them all into an index, right now we're in the bottom 20%. So at 70K, 18.9% of days have been lower. So the folks who are calling for 30k, they are calling for a Q1, meaning there has never been a day that is that far away from all of our means. It is literally a one of one event. Could it happen? Absolutely. We set one of one events. Rarely, but they happen. But the odds like that for any

[B]

price in the 30s, like for a bottom and maybe like 38k or high 30.

[A]

So the general framework here is below 55k we enter Q5 territory, meaning 5% of all days. So. And yeah, so we're in that Q5. Now. Q5 means that we go down 5% more, but there's a 95% chance it wants to go higher. Mean reversion, the tension in the elastic band is back to the upside. So that's why I say to people like don't. Like if. And if you really peel it back, if you look at all of these green zones, right, which is why do below Q20 over the long arc of bitcoin history, if you were to look back and accumulate bitcoin during any of these Q20 periods, the bottom fifth of the cycle, would you look back in two years time ago? Damn, that was a bad decision. No. Every single time you go, like, for me, do I care in 2022 that I bought at 22k, 20k, 15k, 16k, I don't care. I don't care. It's all the same thing, right. I have monthly paycheck. So from that perspective, try and get rid of all the noise. People are always going to. There's this like fantasy people have, like buying the bottom tick. You'll be asleep when it happens. Right. You'll be too scared to do anything when it happens. Just buy the whole bottom DCA, the whole thing. Because the odds right now are 80% in your favor. And if you walked in any casino with 80% odds, you would roll that dice every day.

[B]

Yeah, no, that's great. That's really great perspective. I feel like this cycle has just been so interesting. The market volatility, gold's outperformance. You gotta hand it to someone like Luke Groman, who basically almost timed it perfectly again and sold near the top and is planning to buy back even lower. He's not entering back in. I know a lot viewers and listeners follow him.

[A]

He's also thinking about in gold terms, which is. Which is important to keep in mind. His reference point is not exactly priced

[B]

in ounces of gold. Yeah, completely. But I just. I do want to put a highlight on something you said, which is that it's not wise for people to try to time that bottom. It's very risky. You lose sleep and. Yeah. And you stand to potentially lose money if you've basically sold where you think you're going to buy back lower. Just. Just a point of clarification. I feel like there's a little bit of opaqueness when we're considering the exchanges. Are you able to actually see in terms of the. On chain analysis, what's behind sort of the. The walled garden of the exchange? Because they're not. They might be, you know, making trades within certain accounts, but they're not doing it necessarily on the blockchain. Right.

[A]

Yes. No. Fantastic question. And when I get all the time. And I actually wrote an evergreen piece called the exchanges are running out of coins, exclamation mark. Where I covered ex. Exactly this top. Because I get. I think aside from when top, this is the number one question that I get. So.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

There's a lot of nuance to all data now to give you a bit of background. For me, my old life used to be a civil engineer, but I was a particular breed of civil engineer, which is called geotechnical. And that is everything to do with the ground. So I don't get to put steel and concrete where I want. I get what mother Nature gives me. Could be rock, could be clay, could be a combination of both. And you're designing very large structures of boreholes that are as big as this mic and you might have four of them and you're going to do a train station off that. So my background is in dealing with big data and lots of uncertainty. Lots of like, yeah, it feels about right. Right finger in the air type stuff. That's a lot of how engineering in that world looks. Markets are much the same. There's tons of incomplete information. You're right that there are. I mean, first things first. What I do is I look at what's going on in futures, spot options on chain, and I view them all as a big lens of human psychology. What are the traders doing, what are the speculators doing? What's the demand on the sell side and what is the network that stitch it all together doing? The exchanges have always existed and there is always this background noise. You can do stuff like they call entity adjustment, but you can do this thing where you have a data science team who literally maps. This is Binance, this is Coinbase, this is so on so forth. And then they clean up the data and they say, exclude that from the on chain side. Exclude that. Now I run for me personally again for the, for the resolution of analysis that I do. If you're an active trader who's like automating stuff and sure, that data is extremely useful for me who's just trying to understand the, the ebb and the flow of the funds. The metrics never deviate by more than 5%. Right. The most advanced heuristics, there's metrics that I use that just don't deviate by more than 5%. And for me, 5% is dead on. Right. I'm not dealing in millimeter tolerances. If I'm within a meter, I'm a happy man. So from that perspective, I'm just very used to, and it might, because I spent a lot of time looking at this, but very, very, very, very rarely does exchange data. And like all these internal things, it's, it's like a persistent background noise. And you just get used to like seeing that there's always this background noise. But I'm looking for breaks of that noise. When do those breaks happen? When the market's ripping and a lot of old coins come back to life. I'm sure one of those was Coinbase. I'm sure a lot more of them are just people taking profit. You kind of simplify and go, does the noise matter? And the answer is actually it doesn't. And once you can see what is noise and what is signal, it clears up.

[B]

So fascinating. I really appreciate you sharing all those charts. I did want to also get your take a little bit on quantum computing because that's been a little bit of FUD that's out there right now. People have said that bitcoin didn't go higher in the bull run because people are pricing in this risk or this threat. What are your thoughts on Quantum?

[A]

Yeah, so I've been poking a little bit of fun at this argument because I've been saying, oh look, the Korean stock market was also vulnerable for Quantum recently. Oh look, there's oil. I didn't realize oil was quantum vulnerable. Poking a bit of fun of it. So my view is no, we're not in a bear market because of Quantum. Yes, there are some people, big capital investors who won't be buying Bitcoin because they don't understand Quantum. But that also means they don't understand Bitcoin, Bitcoin as well. So I and listen, first things first, I am no quantum expert. Like I'd be lying if I said anything otherwise. I do do enough work to satisfy my own curiosity. So. And really I think LLMs are fantastic because you can literally bounce ideas. This guy's got a tweet and I try and challenge it and say hey, here's an experiment that said they broke a small key. Can you show me which parts of it are fugazi and which parts aren't? My general read is I don't believe the it's coming in the next like two, five years. I think we're a decade plus. That's where I currently sit. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing stuff because I think it is really, really important to understand the lead time. Bitcoin development time, review time, the migration, all of that stuff is a multi year process. However the vast, vast majority of people like. So when the first Q day quantum computer comes out, they're not going to go and tag your $152,000 transaction MEMPOOL. That's just they're not going to be powerful enough to do these short range attacks. They're going to be going after the very, very big pools. What are the big pools? Satoshi's lost coins, the pay to pub keys but also Binance and Coinbase when they reuse addresses. Finance and Coinbase are going to work this out. They're going to update their system such that their wallet management handles it. They're not dumb. So I'm not too concerned about those coins. I'm of the view that the pay to pub key coins, they're going to get taken at some point, whether via Quantum or just humans getting smarter. We're going to break cryptography at some point. Like everything has a half life. I think it's also very important to recognize that just like putting a quantum secure algorithm in or scheme in now is dangerous, it is dangerous because these are untested systems. They're very, very new. So it is a very, it's a very challenging proposition. So my general view is for the folks who are just like Quantum is never happening, I think softening that stance is Sensensible. Things like bips 360 make sense. Even if you just remove the idea of Quantum. It's just a sensible upgrade to taproot anyway. So being just conscious that we should have a plan, not having a plan is actually worse. Because if you're wrong, and you can always be wrong, we're stuffed. So having a plan and having people working on it makes a lot of sense. I think the folks who are saying that we need to upgrade tomorrow are dangerous as well. So both sides of those extremes are dangerous. My view is we should say that if we don't have a plan for Quantum in the next five years, we've probably done something wrong. Right. And if we've implemented a quantum secure scheme in the next five years, I would actually say, unless there's evidence that we need to, I would say we've also done something wrong. So I sit very much in that middle ground, which there are no politicians out there to vote for. Right. I mean that middle ground where most people are, which is like, hey, can we step away from these like dumb extremes? I don't know. And I think most people on the Internet don't know where Quantum is coming from. But I also know that it could, it could happen. So we should just narrow it. Yeah, we should narrow our focus down the middle. And like, I think bit360 makes sense. I think not doing anything is dangerous and doing something too drastic is also very dangerous.

[B]

Well, that middle ground is a very sensible place to be. You're right. Or in the minority with that. Someone wanted me to ask you about distance dispelling the 118x Bitcoin multiplier myth.

[A]

Yes. So this is a classic from 2021 at the Bull market. Peak was like April or something. Bank of America released this Piece where they were basically saying like we believe that if you put X amount of dollars into the market that the bitcoin price will go up by this much. And if you do like the how many dollars in versus market cap change, it was like 118x. So basically saying I invest $1, the market cap's going to go up $118. That was the, the perspective. So because we have on chain data, we can actually model where did everyone buy their coin, what do they pay for it? And when someone buys a coin for 10k and sells it for 100, someone else has to come in with $90,000 of new capital to buy that coin and vice versa, when the poor dude buys 100k and sells it at 60, he's destroyed 40 grand worth of capital. So that's a capital outflow. So my framework was we can see the money coming in, we can see the money going out. How much does the market cap change relative to that measurable capital flow? Now in bear markets we often see that it may take like $50 to get a $1 increase in the market cap because there's an oversupply of coin. You need to buy and buy and buy in the market just doesn't go up. But then in bull markets, people just stop selling. They go nut need a higher price and the demand just keeps pushing higher. So a dollar might create an $8 move in the market cap. So it's an oscillator that varies and changes. 118x if you like. For those who really want to just like sense, check this. Take the ETFs, they've taken in 55 billion or something in total capital. Compare that to. Imagine they're the only buyer, literally the only buyer in the whole system. That's very like, it's the opposite of conservative because you're saying there's only 55 billion of demand and the market cap went up like $1.5 trillion. Your multiple. Whenever you actually run that calc, you're like, okay, that's a 32x. How I know that ETFs aren't the only buyers? How on earth they get 118x? The highest number I've ever seen as like a brief fleeting event was 8x right when you factor in the whole system. So people, I think it's just pure engagement Farm people love to say, oh, there's 118x multiple. Which means that my model means we're going to get a 50 million dollar price. It's like, it's just guys, this is why people are sad.

[B]

Okay. So would you, based on just all your analysis, do you think we're gonna go back down to let's say the high 50s or like 60k?

[A]

So my, my general framework is we're gonna. My, my framework for now is we bottom somewhere in the 2024 chop solidation range, which, you know, technically went to 49, but I'm just gonna say between 50 and 70, that's where I think we find some kind of a bottom, including whatever the ultimate bottom is. I do think that psychology changed at 60k. My phone was like a Christmas tree. I had, I had people ringing in saying what's going on? My clients of my clients are scared. Like help my podcast. I like 20 podcast episodes. Oh my God, I don't have time for this. So that day I felt that like people were scared and long term holders were scared, which is for me that's, that's counterintuitive, but that's what you want to see. Near serious turning points in the market.

[B]

Got it. Okay. My last question is really about just retail versus institutional because we've got two different buyers and we did not see a lot of retail. I've been talking to several of my guests about this, including Lyn Alden. Like, where's this, you know, retail mainstream audience going to finally recognize that they want to become a shrimp or a crab or whatever, right? Like we need the average person to start accumulating bitcoin. And I feel like in the last cycle the amount that came in from that, that investor community was not as big as I. I would hope so.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

When are they going to come in?

[A]

Yeah, it's a, it's a good question. So I'm of the view, maybe one of my spicier takes. I think we're approaching the saturation and I hate to say this, I fear that we're approaching the saturation point of like self custody, cold card wielding Hodlers. And the reason for that, like if you look at the total number of UTXOs, I forget if it's UTXOs or addresses. It doesn't matter. If you look at the total number of coins in the system, it's like 14 million once you get rid of like dust and all small stuff. So meaningful actual holdings of bitcoin, there's like 14 million upper bound. That's literally all there are in the entire blockchain. So then you go, well, I know most Hodlers have, if you've been around for a couple of years, you've got more than one UTXO, more than one address. Right. Most people would have like 10 or more. So then you got to go, okay, now we're talking 1.4 million and that's probably still upper bound of like on chain, actual human beings. I would say we're in the hundreds of thousands of like actual bitcoiners. And then you go how many people? Those people listen like two bitcoin podcasts a week. Because now you're in like the hardcore bucket. It's a couple of hundred thousand. So it's a small number of people. The process of self custody has always been too hard for the average person. But the ETFs it's been now to be fair, it's been a while since I've updated this analysis. I would have done this back in 2024. I looked at the ETFs and like broke down. Based on the 13F filings. How much of it is retail versus institutions? Back then it was about 25%. I think I recall like James Safard or Eric Balcon saying something similar. It's like 20, 25% is institutions. A lot of the ETFs is retail. And you know what's really interesting about the ETFs they are hoddling hard, more hardcore than most people. So on the retail side, totally. I don't know when the retail, like the retail boom comes back. All I know is that I literally saw a line of retail people buying silver coins. Like I was in the line to sell and I was like, I'm sorry, if people are lining up to buy bullion, we're going to have a line for the bitcoin price eventually. So that's one perspective. Most of the sellers in this down cycle have not been ETFs. I looked at, I modeled, that's about, I think it was 18, 18 of the peak sell side was ETFs. In fact might have been 8. And it doesn't matter. Small number. Most of the people who sold and are capitulating are people who bought Spot. So that's retail. Retail who bought Spot? Probably a lot of Hodlers who took on bitcoin backed loans and that kind of stuff. Tons of those Hodlers who capitulated are actually retail hodlers. But the ETFs, the majority of the holders are retail. And most of the outflows we've seen about 11.2 billion since the all time high. Most of that when you overlie the CME open interest for futures, it looks like a basis trade. Whether it's like, well, I'm going to be getting 5% now, I might as well go and buy something else. It's just like, it's not a, I'm selling bitcoin because bitcoin sucks. It's a, I'm selling bitcoin because I'm moving on to my other basis, trade on some other thing that it's just like I'm. I don't care what the price is. So we've got a lot of hodlers in the ETFs now. They are about 20% of the demand, but that's meaningful. So I think we've got a lot of the retailers, they're using their retirement accounts, right? They're using it in, in the ETF vehicles.

[B]

Well, that's such a good point. Thanks for, for kind of sharing that dual perspective because you do have the retail spot, bitcoin investors and now you have so many more that are just going through the, the ETFs. Obviously I advocate for self custody but you know, you got to see start somewhere.

[A]

And sorry if I can. Can I add one more point to this? Because I think again, from the psychological standpoint, the way I've been describing the current bitcoin market, I quite like Jordy Vis's like great rotation IPO moment. I think it's a good framework to think about it. I know for me, I've been in bitcoin since the 2017 top and whilst I don't sell bitcoin, I have certainly been buying other things more. Why? Because I'm in my mid-30s and I have a kid now. My life changes, right. Things happen where you just have to like, treat. I can't be 100% geared to Bitcoin anymore. So for me, I'm divesting by just not buying as much as I used to. There are going to be people who have been like 100% bitcoin. They're divesting out. Bitcoin mastered its freshwater pond. It is the biggest thing in its freshwater pond. It's now swimming out that estuary into the big bad salty ocean where there's a, it's a bunch of sharks out there as well. But it needs to go out to find more food. The rest of the world, the tradfi world, is also going to divest from a 100% 0 bitcoin position to us, just 0.1%. But those 0.1% are more money than you and I will ever dream of. So like, people ask. I love this line, like, oh, no, it was retail, then it was companies, and then it was. It has to be sovereigns. That's the only way bitcoin can go up. Like, no, no, no, no, no. You just need that institutional pool and that's big, bad, salty ocean. To go from like.001% 2.002. And the numbers is unfathomable. So that's where I think we're at. It's a rotation in both directions.

[B]

You're right. And we've got a long way to go up. So I'm very excited. Thank you so much for joining me. Where can people find you?

[A]

Thank you. Yes, you'll find me over atcheckonchain.com. so we've got a chart, every chart that you saw here, they're all free. And also a newsletter where we go over this twice a week.

[B]

Fantastic. And I'll share your X Twitter handle and hopefully we'll have you back on the show. Thank you so much, James, for all of your perspective. Like I said, I see all these charts online and sometimes I have no idea what I'm looking at and what I should be reading. So I think you made all of us feel a little bit. A little bit more bullish. Even though we might get. We might have some chop ahead. So thanks so much, James.

[A]

No worries. Buy the whole bottom. Don't fantasize over the bottom. You won't be there for it.

[B]

Keep dcing. That's right.

[A]

That's it. Thanks, Nana.

[B]

Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories. Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss any new episodes. If you can, turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review, they really help the show grow organically with new listeners. We have a free weekly newsletter. You can sign [e-mail] this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing should constitute as financial investment advice, and you should always do your own research. I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach my team at info at talkingbitcoin. Com. I'll see you next time.