Coin Stories – Dave Collum: The Next Financial Crisis and Debating Whether The State Could Crush Bitcoin

Host: Natalie Brunell
Guest: Dave Collum (Professor of Organic Chemistry, Cornell University)
Date: September 9, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Natalie Brunell sits down with Dave Collum, a renowned Cornell chemist and outspoken commentator on economics and markets. Despite being a self-declared “Bitcoin agnostic,” Collum is known for his skepticism about the sustainability of the current financial system and the state’s power over monetary innovations like Bitcoin. They debate whether Bitcoin can survive a true financial crisis or hostile state action, explore the outlook for the U.S. dollar, and discuss why Collum is attracted to Bitcoin’s ethos—yet remains cautious on embracing it fully.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Dave Collum’s Background and Worldview

Timestamps: 02:20–07:06

• Collum reflects on his unconventional academic journey—from underachieving student to celebrated scientist—and how challenging orthodoxy in chemistry shaped his approach to economics.
• He consults for major pharma companies, but his core “superpower” is questioning consensus:

  "I realized that experts can be dead wrong... I could look at 12 famous economists who all agree and say, well, I think you’re full of crap and that’s a superpower." (06:44)

2. The Financial System: 40 Years of Tailwinds and the Bubble Problem

Timestamps: 09:10–16:33

• Collum details how structural tailwinds (cheap markets, demographic booms, falling interest rates, globalization) drove outsized market returns since 1981.
• Valuations now are 200% above historical averages, suggesting an inevitable correction:

  "If they're high, you’re not getting much on your return, it's guaranteed... If they're low, you're probably going to get a good return if you're patient enough." (13:29)

3. Inflation, Debt, and the Limits of Money Printing

Timestamps: 14:45–19:53

• The U.S. debt and entitlements are unsustainable. Traditional Fed actions to paper over crises are meeting the brick wall of visible inflation:

  "The tricks they've done for 40 years are now potentially going to hit a brick wall because they’re obviously going to face immediate inflation or inflationary warning signals." (18:54)

• Collum sees the Fed, caught between a rock and hard place, forced to choose between legacy and disaster:

  "Old men worry about legacy more than money... I wouldn't want to be Fauci right now. He's going to go to his grave in shame." (19:41)

4. America’s Economic Transition and Geopolitics

Timestamps: 22:28–27:39

• Discussion moves to America’s waning leverage, the challenge of onshoring industries, and the impractical timeline for restoring manufacturing power. Collum worries that promises to rebuild are hollow:

  "All these promises [of reshoring jobs and plants] are just that. They're just promises. And until they become concrete... we have certain skill sets. We have a lot of college graduates who don't bring with them a lot of skills." (24:00)

5. Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and the Power of the State

Timestamps: 27:39–41:16

• Collum is sympathetic to the Bitcoin ethos but fears state power:

  "If the state says, look, if you use bitcoin, you're getting thrown in prison for 10 years. Game's over now." (29:00)

• The recent excitement around institutional adoption (like Larry Fink and stablecoins) represents a paradox for him:

  "You're signing off on precisely what it is you defied—and that is government." (29:48)

• Natalie pushes back, citing explicit political signals of support for bitcoin self-custody. Collum remains cautious, suspecting the state is merely leveraging the machinery before a switch:

  "If you had the reserve currency, why would you sign off on a currency that you actually don’t own?" (32:03)

6. Is Bitcoin “Digital Gold” and How Does It Compare?

Timestamps: 35:26–41:16

• Collum draws parallels with gold, noting that even explicit constitutional protection didn’t prevent the state from outlawing it:

  "Bitcoin does not have a constitution level protection. Gold had a constitutional level protection and then they outlawed it." (35:47)

• He repeats skepticism that Bitcoin will escape a state crackdown if it becomes a serious threat:

  "It is not negative about bitcoin. It is negative about the power of the state." (35:14)

7. What Would Convince Collum to Buy Bitcoin?

Timestamps: 39:13–41:16

• He outlines his “lifetime filter” for investments: would he forgive himself if it went badly due to obvious risks?
• For Collum, Bitcoin must survive a global liquidity crisis and prove resilient against “the battlefield”—bruised but alive:

  "For me to get into bitcoin, I am going to want to see bitcoin come off the battlefield bruised, sliced and alive." (41:12)

• He doubts the system can “print its way out” in the next true crisis, and wants to see how Bitcoin performs.

8. Bitcoin, BRICS, and the Dollar’s Waning Dominance

Timestamps: 47:28–51:02

• Discussion of BRICS countries possibly turning to bitcoin as a reserve asset—and how that would be transformative:

  "If the BRICS starts talking... seriously about bitcoin, that's a different world." (50:47)

• He would consider buying if nations adopt it after a painful shakeout:

  "Bitcoin gets the crap kicked out of it, survives, and BRICS moves to it and they go bang." (51:02)

9. Parallels with Past Asset Cycles (Gold, Tech, Real Estate)

Timestamps: 51:13–64:36

• Collum compares the hated status of tobacco stocks at crisis lows to what would make bitcoin attractive—a consensus that it’s “dead,” before surviving.
• They discuss the limitations of various asset classes to protect average people, and the false promise of endless Fed bailouts:

  "We are therefore in this... complacency bubble... The Fed won’t let the system hurt us. There is no evidence from the historical record that's true." (59:26)

10. The Case for Hard, Scarce Assets in an Uncertain World

Timestamps: 46:43–50:12, 67:46–68:45

• Both agree on the need to own “hard, scarce assets,” though Collum is unsure whether that should be gold or bitcoin. Natalie frames bitcoin as the obvious “life raft.”
• Collum worries about black swans—technological disruption, authoritarian swings, and the risk of “the state” asserting control as it has throughout history.

11. Bitcoin’s Unique Security — ‘Wall of Encrypted Energy’

Timestamps: 73:12–77:18

• Natalie explains why Bitcoin’s energy-backed security wall makes it impossible for other cryptos to compete:

  "Specifically the fact that it's secured by this energy wall... layers and layers that have been put on top of bitcoin... you cannot replicate easily." (75:03)

• Collum probes whether future technological innovations could unseat Bitcoin. Natalie asserts that energy use and network effect make that unlikely.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bitcoin’s Appeal, Yet Ultimate Caution:

  "I like the idea of being independent of the system, and I like the idea of having sort of a fixed quantity monetary system... I do not want to be stuffing gold up my rectum to get across a border... But the risk that I see, of course... is the state." (01:13)

• On the Fed’s Boxed-In Position:

  "You're saying to your doctors... there's nothing left for us to do. We could reach that point." (20:51)

• On America’s Diminished Leverage:

  "We have people who know how to make lattes... We have certain skill sets. We have a lot of college graduates who don't bring with them a lot of skills." (24:15)

• Natalie’s Bitcoin Philosophy:

  "I want the world to embrace bitcoin because too many people have been left out and left behind... What tools exist that the average person can start to opt into and to use and to save in that can save them from the giant mess that's caused by the money printer?" (56:50)

• On Hope (Or Lack Thereof) for the Future:

  "If we're feeling this bad at the top, what's the bottom going to look like? The bottom is going to look like the fourth turning..." (60:26)

• On State Power:

  "It is not negative about bitcoin. It is negative about the power of the state. I just do not believe the state wants to give this kind of power to the people." (35:18)

• Natalie on the New Generation:

  "Young people don't have hope for the future... It's sad and it is depressing. I think people call it the silent depression." (58:23)

• On Mitigating Risk:

  "Risk is not about what happens, it's about what could happen. And those who don't mitigate risk eventually get caught by it." (79:13)

• On Endgame Optimism:

  "I actually hope to [own bitcoin]. I actually hope to." (82:21)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Highlight | |------|-----------| | 02:20–07:06 | Collum’s contrarian scientific and academic journey | | 09:10–16:33 | The 40-year market bubble and mispricing of debt | | 19:53–22:28 | The Fed’s “hard choices” and legacy crisis | | 27:39–29:59 | Bitcoin adoption paradox and state risk | | 35:14–36:19 | Gold’s outlawing as a precedent for state suppression | | 39:13–41:16 | What would convince Collum to buy Bitcoin | | 47:28–51:02 | BRICS, reserve assets, and what would “change the game” | | 56:50–58:56 | Generational pessimism and bitcoin’s accessibility argument | | 73:12–77:18 | Bitcoin’s unique security and network resilience |

Conclusion

This spirited, thoughtful debate highlights the tension between the promise of Bitcoin as the “internet of money” and the entrenched powers of the state and legacy financial system. Collum remains on the fence, needing proof that Bitcoin can not only survive but thrive during systemic shocks and regulatory onslaughts. Natalie offers optimism: in a world short on hope and trust, Bitcoin is a unique parallel system, permissionless and accessible, that can resurrect faith in money for the next generation. The episode is a must-listen for anyone wrestling with whether Bitcoin can truly be antifragile—or whether entrenched power will always have the final say.