Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Episode Title: Joe Carlasare: New Bitcoin ATH in 2026 as Economy Runs Hot
Air Date: January 13, 2026
Guest: Joe Carlasare
Host: Natalie Brunell
Episode Overview
This episode dives into macroeconomic trends, U.S. policy, wealth inequality, and the future of Bitcoin as both an institutional asset and a potential route to greater financial equity. Joe Carlasare, a well-known Bitcoin advocate and attorney, returns to the show to review why many optimistic 2025 Bitcoin price predictions fell short, why he believes the old four-year cycle is dead, and why he projects a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026. The episode blends macro analysis, investment strategy, societal dynamics, and practical advice for listeners navigating the current economic landscape.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
I. Why Didn't Bitcoin Reach Expected Highs in 2025?
- Many predicted $130K–$400K Bitcoin in 2025, but reality fell short.
- Three Main Factors Identified by Joe:
- OG Selling Pressure
- Many early holders had been psychologically committed to taking profits at $100K, causing significant sell pressure.
- Example: Joe’s own clients sold at $100K to make large lifestyle purchases.
- “That psychological number of 100k was gonna hit us... they just wanted to lighten up, buy that house in Aspen, whatever.” – Joe, [00:48]
- ETF and Market Volatility
- Launch of ETFs and broader market volatility, including the impact of tariffs, led to risk-off sentiment similar to China’s mining ban in 2021.
- Cycle Theory Breakdown
- Joe argues the traditional “four-year cycle” is dead as Bitcoin becomes more institutionally integrated.
- “The cycle theory is dead and we can get into that.” – Joe, [03:07]
- Capital Flow Shift:
Treasury companies and high-beta mining stocks drew speculative investment away from spot Bitcoin, dampening price movement.
- OG Selling Pressure
II. Challenging the Four-Year Cycle
- The much-anticipated “blow-off top” didn’t realistically materialize in 2025.
- Joe notes:
- The asset started at $109K (January 2025, Trump inauguration) and peaked at $126K, below wild bullish projections.
- Instead of euphoric surges, the price action was moderate; thus, there’s no reason to expect catastrophic drawdowns.
- “We didn't get some...huge blow off bubbly type move. We just didn't.” – Joe, [07:31]
III. Cycle Replacement: Institutionalization & Macro Correlation
- As Bitcoin matures, it will track the broader “risk complex” and macroeconomic trends rather than rigid cycles.
- Joe’s thesis: Bitcoin’s future returns will increasingly correlate with equity markets and overall liquidity, boosting adoption and dampening extreme volatility both up and down.
- “As Bitcoin becomes institutionalized and mature as an asset, it's going to perform more in line with the broader ‘risk complex.’” – Joe, [12:37]
- ETF inflows despite subdued price action underscore increasing stickiness and resilience of the asset.
IV. The Hot Economy, Wealth Gaps, and Political Risks
- US Economy Running Hot:
- Productivity numbers are surging; Q3 2025 saw 4.9% growth, the highest in six years.
- Market indicators suggest re-acceleration: record highs in small caps (Russell 2000).
- Joe is bullish on U.S. dynamism, productivity growth, and capital markets strength.
- “We have a wonderful country that is going to continue to have outsized returns.” – Joe, [19:39]
- K-Shape Recovery and Political Instability:
- Disparity between “haves” (upper quartile, asset owners) and “have-nots” fuels a sense of economic unfairness.
- The greatest risk is not economic collapse but political reaction to continuing inequality.
- “If you continue to shut out huge segments of the population...you're going to increase political instability.” – Joe, [27:18], [00:00 reprise]
V. The Core of the Affordability Crisis: Housing
- Housing costs are the largest burden for most Americans.
- Institutional ownership is not massive nationwide, but pressure is acute in key markets like Florida.
- The issue is primarily supply: local regulations impede new, affordable home construction.
- “We need to make it easier for builders to build...increase the supply. And I think that would be a far more satisfying result than trying to reallocate the...existing supply.” – Joe, [35:33]
- Young people’s frustration and openness to radical ideas stems from being priced out—leading to concerning proposals like collective property ownership.
VI. Generational and Social Security Implications
- Joe highlights intergenerational tensions—not only are many young people locked out, but there are struggling boomers as well.
- Social Security’s looming insolvency is a “ticking time bomb.”
- Solutions: means testing, raising eligibility age, new taxation—never politically popular.
- “You have to, have to figure that out. You have to revisit some of the expenditures, whether that's through means testing.” – Joe, [39:57]
- Stock market as de facto retirement system introduces vulnerabilities.
VII. Bitcoin’s Role in a Portfolio and Society
- Bitcoin as a store of value and portfolio diversifier is accelerating, with institutional adoption (IBIT ETF) proving robust even in a flat market.
- How much Bitcoin should people own?
- At minimum: “get off zero.”
- Many high-net-worth investors have no allocation simply due to lack of understanding or institutional guidance.
- Joe personally holds over 80% in Bitcoin, using ETFs for new buys for simplicity and custody purposes. [49:51]
- “It's nuts when I see people that have significant seven figure stock holdings and they own zero bitcoin.” – Joe, [45:46]
VIII. Limits of ‘Bitcoin Fixes Everything’
- Joe is frank about Bitcoin’s utility: it is not a panacea for societal imbalance, but a meaningful, resilient savings tool.
- “I sort of fade those narratives that the bitcoin fixes everything in the short run just because I think we've got massive issues and Bitcoin is a tool... But it's not a panacea that's going to be able to solve every issue...” – Joe, [43:28]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Political Instability:
- “From a political standpoint, if you continue to shut out huge segments of the population and not allow them to share in the prosperity, what you're going to do is you're going to increase political instability.” – Joe, [00:00], [27:18]
- On the Four-Year Cycle:
- “I think the cycle has been dead for a while here, even going back to 2022.” – Joe, [03:07]
- On Wealth Concentration:
- “You have people doing really well and people doing really poorly, right?... massive amounts of wealth growth that has accrued to the top, say, 5% over the last five years.” – Joe, [27:18]
- On Bitcoin’s Maturing Investment Thesis:
- “If Bitcoin is correlated with a particular asset class, I'd rather it be correlated with stocks personally in the short run because it's growing, it's growing in terms of its adoption...” – Joe, [12:37]
- On Practical Portfolio Advice:
- “It's nuts when I see people that have significant seven figure stock holdings and they own zero bitcoin.” – Joe, [45:46]
- “At least get off zero.” – Joe, [45:46]
- On Staying Positive:
- “People should be optimistic and realize that there's a lot of opportunity in the world today... What helps you improve your life is action. Doing something, whether it's being allocated to Bitcoin or learning more about the world, that's what's productive.” – Joe, [51:58]
Important Timestamps for Key Segments
- Cycle theory and 2025 letdown: [00:48] – [04:44]
- How macroeconomic & ETF volatility affected bitcoin: [00:48]
- Why the 4-year cycle is obsolete: [03:07] – [12:37]
- US productivity and economic dynamism: [03:51], [19:39]
- The k-shaped recovery and who’s actually struggling: [16:29], [27:18]
- Housing's impact on affordability and frustration: [30:35] – [36:14]
- Intergenerational issues and Social Security: [37:06] – [42:10]
- Realistic view on Bitcoin’s short-term societal impact: [43:28]
- Portfolio allocation, the ETF revolution, and advice: [45:46] – [49:56]
- 2026 price prediction: [51:34]
- End-of-year: $120K
- High: $157K
Tone & Language
Joe speaks in a direct, analytical, sometimes anecdotal style but retains empathy for those struggling. He combines optimism for Bitcoin and the U.S. economy with realism about policy, market dynamics, and the limits of what Bitcoin can do for systemic problems.
Natalie grounds conversation with listener-focused, clarifying questions, often invoking the lived experience of average Americans and the Bitcoin newcomer’s perspective.
Summary for Non-Listeners
This episode blends sober macroeconomic analysis with practical investor advice and social commentary. Joe Carlasare explains why the 2025 Bitcoin moonshot didn’t happen, argues that Bitcoin’s old “four-year cycle” lore is effectively dead, and lays out a vision where Bitcoin becomes a boring, stable fixture in institutional portfolios. Meanwhile, surging U.S. productivity and capital markets mask grinding inequalities and housing woes. While Bitcoin is no magic bullet for systemic problems, Joe recommends every investor “get off zero” and consider Bitcoin as a core diversifier—emphasizing self-education and proactive action over pessimism. The biggest risks ahead aren’t market collapse, but political backlash as the fruits of economic growth are more unevenly distributed, and social safety nets like Social Security become unsustainable.
End of Summary