← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Jordi Visser: Bitcoin Selloff a "Silent IPO" Moment? Capitalism's Breaking Point and AI Money Revolution
01:02:59
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- [00:00]
A
At some point, capitalism gets to the point where very few people are benefiting. The government needs to offset the deflation, and so they keep this thing going. The stock market becomes such a big part of the economy that they're not allowed to actually have a recession again. And that's where we are.
- [00:22]
B
Hey, everyone. Welcome back to the show. Joining me this week is Jordi Visser. He is a macro investor and writer of the Macro AI Nexus. And I'm so excited to talk to you because you recently went viral with this Bitcoin IPO Moment newsletter. So thanks for joining me.
- [00:37]
A
It's nice to finally get the chance to meet you, Natalie.
- [00:40]
B
Well, thank you. So let's start right there with that newsletter. Talk to us about what is bitcoin's IPO moment and how is it impacting the price choppiness that we see right now?
- [00:50]
A
Yeah, I didn't expect when I wrote it that it would, let's say, catch as many viewers as it did. The purpose of it was really a feeling that I had that it developed over the course of the year. Part of that came from just listening to people that are in the space. As I've become more, let's say, entrenched in the crypto community. I have a lot of people that reach out to me in email that have acquired my text, and I'm getting a lot of messages over the course of, let's say, the last three months where frustration had been building in, sentiment had dropped off. And the way that I write is really geared towards the odds in the market. And this is something that comes from my background, from my father teaching me how to handicap horse races when I was a kid. And so what, I'm always looking for the long shots. And when sentiment gets really bad, there's usually a good opportunity to put money to work. So the question for me was, why is everyone so negative when at the time when this really started, it was still outperforming The S&P 500. It wasn't bad. It was. It almost was like an entitled problem. And to me, in talking to people, and it was after Mike Novogratz on the Galaxy earnings call mentioned that they had one seller who sold $9 billion of Bitcoin. And to me, in listening to an interview he subsequently did where he talked about it, he also talked about people that would sell to bring in income, especially out of Asia, and that this was a part of the process that went on. And I started to really think about the fact that I think people are missing a big picture Here, which is the people who are selling, based on everything I've heard, are long term holders and a lot of them are dormant owners who haven't had their coins out in the market for a long time. And that's really like an ipo. So an IPO you have a lot of VC people that invest early in an idea and remember they lose in a lot of these. So these are situations where eventually they need to monetize. And that's what it felt like to me was people were getting too negative and they needed to calm down. And the reason they needed to calm down is because I literally feel at the same time that we're at the beginning of a major bull market in the space because of the government and because of the innovation now becoming more relevant at this time. And so it just felt like that's what happened with Google and salesforce.com in 2004 after the dot com bubble. And so all of that just kind of bubbled to the surface. I started to write it and like I said, I'm surprised that people embraced it so much, but I'm glad they did.
- [03:23]
B
Well, can you talk a little bit more about the price action we've seen? Because some people have said that the top is in that we're going to experience maybe a bear market. Others talk about the greater liquid on the macro side that that's going to push all asset prices up and eventually hopefully that'll reach Bitcoin and we'll see a new all time high. Some people have predicted 200,000 this year, but we've only got about a month or month and a half to go. So where do you see bitcoin's price going in the near term?
- [03:48]
A
So I think we're at the beginning stages of the network effects. So I'm going to use a technology side for this but I'm also going to try to give your audience a different way of thinking from, from two camps and using one part, which is what I hear a lot of people talk on your show and other shows about the need for let's say liquidity in the market which is historically been associated with leverage. So let's put QE weaker dollar liquidity in one camp. So you'll see these liquidity charts going up. So that's one side and then the other is Caitlin Long who I've I know and we've had conversations but she has a very different story about the importance of bitcoin at this stage. And this gets into the velocity of money. So on the one Side, we've had tremendous leverage that have entered the system over the course of really the last 20 some odd years. And the first baby boomer retired around 2011. And so when you start getting into the point, the transfer payments from the government have been going up consistently since the great financial crisis, but they're going to continue to grow because the government has to give people more Social Security and promises that they made. And so that's something that people focus on. Like bitcoin's going to go because we're going to get more leverage and we're going to go through. I actually think over time, part of the story for bitcoin and crypto is that leverage is going to come down as more money transfers from the fiat system into the crypto world. And the reason is because a lot of the, let's say, tokens in the fiat world are dormant. So a dormant token is private credit, it's private equity, it's vc, it's real estate, it's illiquid assets that never trade. What Caitlin's talking about and what I think people need to embrace is that we're at the beginning of tokenization. Tokenization to me is the ability of anyone who has a dormant asset in the fiat world being able to transact in it all of a sudden that there'll be a market for all of these components. So bitcoin fits into this because the digital economy and the financial guardrails are dependent on crypto. And every year this is going to increase. The reason this year, in my opinion, that it' been kind of a frustrating year, is not just the insider selling, the OG selling, which is they should be doing. They're overweight an asset. There's other things to invest in in innovation now, AI But I think the other problem that's come in is that people forget the hangover from the crypto winter that is still there and the fact that the VC world is still trapped in bad investments from them. Not only in that, but in sas, which has also been disrupted by AI.
- [06:25]
B
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- [09:00]
A
See, I already like the way you handle this show. We've done no prep, there's been no conversation between the two of us whatsoever beforehand. This is a perfect question for a follow up to what I just talked about because I actually believe it's the most important story that's gone on. AI has been a focal point for people and it gets lumped in with innovation, which means it gets lumped in. At the end of the day, bitcoin is innovation. It's a story that doesn't have fundamentals the way the traditional finance world is used to. It has a narrative. And unfortunately, that narrative is very difficult for the traditional finance, which matters a lot to the ultimate value of bitcoin, because those people live on narratives. They live on stories. They live on something. And if they have an innovation story, they don't need Bitcoin now. They're buying all the time because the ETFs continue to have inflows, the treasury companies continue to expand. I'm sure governments will continue to put more money in, but the OG sellers are getting out. So that's where you get that kind of IPO feel. I think going forward. One of the things that I've written about outside of my substack, actually I did write this in my substack, is I really made a point to emphasize to people that AI is electricity. Electricity is not an investable technology, the same way AI theoretically is not an investable technology. I don't believe in the Magnificent Seven taking in enough revenues to justify the capex. It's not that they're going to collapse. I just don't think these are growth names anymore. I think they're spending an enormous amount of money. So we need the narrative of those names to actually slow down and then for investors to look for growth. Have you had Rick Edelman on your show?
- [10:41]
B
I have, yeah. Recently actually.
- [10:43]
A
So Rick talked a lot about having 10 to 40% in crypto. The reason, or one of the primary reasons he gave is connected to artificial intelligence, which I will tell people is going to be a major story next year, which is this whole thing of longevity and extending people's lives and that they need to have, because of that, more money in growth parts of their portfolio, which means more innovation. AI is like electricity in the fact that every company, whether it's a bank, whether it's a healthcare company, they'll all benefit through reducing expenses. That is very powerful. But there isn't an AI, there isn't a technology company. In my opinion, even though people speculate on it, they'll benefit. Nvidia is a commodity company. They make something that goes into to help AI goes. So I think your point is the most important question that people probably don't think about which is the opportunity cost for people to invest in Bitcoin. Anyone has two parts to it. One is price. When price is going higher, everyone's happy and they're buying more. When it's going down, there isn't like a fundamental story that you can hang your hat on. And so that scares people. Like when's it going to stop? It's just kind of like in a dark room. I think eventually people will be more apt to buy it because they go, well, I know what's going to happen is there's going to be more digital wallets created because of tokenization, because of stablecoins. Once there's more wallets, it's much easier for the traditional finance people to actually invest in Bitcoin. The bridges that were created with IBIT, that were created with the ETFs allowed traditional finance people to invest. And that's been gradual. But I think over time, if people have a wallet and the speed of transactions and they sell a part of their asset, they're going to start to put money in. So I think Rick time timeline for longevity is going to happen soon, very soon. I think it becomes an investable theme. This week it's actually happened in the stock market where pharmaceutical names are doing phenomenally well. People don't seem to notice. That's an AI story that's starting to come. But I do think bitcoin will get more as we go forward.
- [12:48]
B
Can you talk a little bit about how to invest in AI if people are looking for opportunities? Because sometimes I hear that it's a bubble and it's going to crash.
- [12:57]
A
Hear that every day.
- [12:58]
B
Yeah.
- [12:58]
A
And I don't think it'll stop. First of all, there are pockets of bubbles with inside the investing space and you've seen some of these names fall 60%. And I'll just give you an example. Nuclear to me has been a bubble. It's not a bubble anymore because it's already fallen down sharply. I don't think nuclear is a very safe investment. And the reason is because you're not going to actually see any revenues for a long, long time because it takes a long time for the build out. So to me that is a bubble. And a bubble just means where things get overvalued and there's pockets of that. I don't think people should treat artificial intelligence as a an either or, meaning it's a bubble or it's not. This kind of connects us back to prediction markets, meaning there's really no answer because it's a word that doesn't mean anything unless it crashes and people see there was a bubble. I think people are going to keep calling it a bubble for two reasons. One is there's unprecedented spending of which some of which is going to be worthless. There's no doubt about it. I don't think it'll ever take down the economy, which is what people should care about. Which means the benefits from AI far outweigh the risk. Do I think the company spending the money you should be very, very wary? Yes, I do. And I posted on X about something with core weave which just disappointed investors. I think there are pockets of bubbles. I think the more important thing is the value that comes from it, which was the other part of your question. Banks are going to benefit a lot from it. And the reason is because the coding element of it is very, very good. The AI agents are going to start coming in now. So digital employees and the ability of replacing employees, which is a profit. Profit margin story. I've compared artificial intelligence to QE for the stock market. The stock market was driven higher by QE because we move rates to zero. That allowed companies to issue debt and buy back their stock, which makes earnings per share grow. For artificial intelligence, you're actually taking it off the bottom line. So the expenses are going down. That actually has operating leverage on top of it. So health care names, financial names, a lot of different places will benefit from AI.
- [15:09]
B
Okay, well, this obviously has implications in terms of the job market, something I talked about a little bit with Preston and Larry a couple weeks ago. And I wanted to get your take on sort of the downward pressure on the labor market, who is now which is now crying out for assistance and help and more government handouts because, you know, it's great that these stocks are going up and there are some retail investors that are day trading right while while they're working their, their hustles. But for the average person, they feel panicked about future and AI taking their jobs. And I know that they're trying to reshore our industrial base, but I mean, that's going to take 10, 15 years. And we're already hearing from the administration that we do not have the skilled labor in order to do it. So where are these people going to work if the AI is going to take over all the white collar jobs?
- [15:59]
A
All right, this is a problem that I spend a lot of time on and I'm sure a good portion of your audience has children, as all audiences do, and they're worried about their kids in terms of what the future is going to look like. So Let me bring a dose of reality and a dose of optimism. I do this every week on my YouTube channel to kind of hopefully show people that, number one, artificial intelligence is disrupting the jobs market. What doesn't really get brought into the equation, though, is that this has been going on since the smartphone came out. It doesn't get associated with it. But we started after the great financial crisis with an unemployment rate of 10%. And it obviously went down. But part of the reason it went down as much as it did is because we also saw the labor participation rate collapse. Now, part of that came from demographics and just people retiring, but part of that came from people not needing to work as well. And the reason I say they didn't need to work is because when the stock market goes up for 10 years, that means people are getting wealthier. Household net worth has gone up significantly since the great financial crisis, and it's up about $80 trillion since the depths of COVID It's 180 trillion. And 80 trillion of the 180 trillion for the United States of America in terms of its net worth for households came from the bottom of COVID until now. So people have accumulated a lot of money through the benefits that have come from this disruption. Now, that doesn't help the kids. Peter Thiel had a viral thing going around last week, which you saw just highlighting now, that was 2020, which means this problem is not something new. The move by kids to more government handouts, the voting that we had in New York City in terms of going towards socialism, this is not just about AI and it's also not just about the decade before. It's about student loans. It's about the corporate ladder being kind of destroyed. And if I don't have upward mobility and I have all this debt, it's not just how much money do I have today? Can I actually make more going forward? And then the government gave a lot of handouts in 2020, 2021. People spent that money when it should have been going towards with the eventual inflation that came. So I think the optimistic side is this. I do believe the deflationary impact from AI is going to help people because if their wages are up at a certain level, part of the pressure comes from the inflation side. The inflation has been a major, major problem because health insurance, car insurance, all that has gone higher. And I do think for younger people, AI is going to help on the deflationary side. And I do think younger people have a better chance to learn from AI and actually become entrepreneurs. But this will be the age of entrepreneurism. And this is one of the reasons why in my weekly video I spend a lot of time trying to help the parents think about how do I have my kids become entrepreneurs? Because that's the world we're going into. It's the age of entrepreneurs.
- [18:53]
B
So you're not encouraging them to become welders and engineers and H vac operators because those are the jobs that can't be replaced by AI.
- [19:00]
A
Right, for the near term because the build out is going to be so real humanoids will come eventually and they will have be able to do those. But I do think for kids that, I mean, my father was a construction worker, he's a core driller. I think if you want to go make 150 to $200,000 right now, which is more than and gives you the ability to live on something, if you can be a welder, an electrician, a plumber, we're going to need lots of those. We have shortages for them and go for it.
- [19:28]
B
Can we drill in on the statistic you gave about the increase in household net worths? Because from everything that I've seen and read over the last five years, it's the ownership of stocks is very concentrated in the top 5 to 10% of the population. And people's net worth in their homes, I think on paper it looks great that their home has gone up in value. But, but think about everything that that comes with higher property taxes, higher maintenance costs, higher insurance premiums, the interest rates have gone up. They're kind of stuck in there in their house. They can't leave. So that prevents the supply from growing. So I mean you, you paint a picture like we're doing so great, but yet it seems like the average family is actually struggling more than ever. And so maybe nominally things look good because the asset prices have been blown up by the money printing. But actually if you, if you pull that all away, the real value, if you price things in gold or in Bitcoin, you see that actually things have been collapsing.
- [20:25]
A
So we're in a K shaped economy. There's no way around it. So one thing on the stat you said we're still the majority of people in this country own stocks. There's a myth that goes around that people don't own stocks. The majority of people in this country own stocks. The problem is concentration comes in that a very few people own the majority of the net worth. So the top 10% ownership, you know, like 85%. Exactly. So this is where the K shaped economy comes in. I was going through before the reality of why the people are feeling crappy about the job market, but their parents are doing well, and anyone that owns stocks is doing well to some degree. But this is very isolated. So this is what. I'm a student of history. Joseph Schumpeter is an economist from a long time ago who wrote a book called Creative Destruction. And within that book, he talked about how capitalism and innovation and you got to think this is back to the 1940s. His forecast was that eventually we will reach a point where it will consume itself. And what he meant by that is exactly what we're going through, which is at some point, capitalism gets to the point where very few people are benefiting. The government needs to offset the deflation, and so they keep this thing going. The stock market becomes such a big part of the economy that they're not allowed to actually, actually have a recession again. And that's where we are. And then he eventually said that people will migrate to socialism. So this is kind of the innovation backdrop. So I don't want to in any way, shape or form. I talk about how the jobs market is going to be weak going forward. The anxiety over jobs is going to remain for the foreseeable future, and not until we get the deflationary benefits from AI will you start to see the K start to work out. In my vision 10 years from now, one of the reasons that I think bitcoin does so well, if bitcoin is for people who don't believe in the system, you actually need the people who are benefiting the most from the system to need to not believe the system. They still believe the system because they're making lots of money. The people who call this a bubble, they're all people at the top end of that scale. The people at the bottom end are saying, I don't even know why this is going on. There's nothing good happening. So I agree with what you're saying. I just think people have to start to think that the end game. And if you. You've had people talk about the fourth turning before, there's an optimistic end of the fourth turning. It's just you have to get through kind of this dystopian period right now, which is what we're going through.
- [22:52]
B
Well, one of the reasons I've been concerned this year is a lot of the interest in bitcoin has come from the institutions as opposed to the people. And it's supposed to be the people's money. Like retail has kind of seen it as boring or they got burned by the crypto market of 2022 or, you know, they've seen other things outperform. But institutions have been allocating and public companies are creating their treasuries. And I think it's should be more of this populist investment because the use case and the investment case is that this is a piece of capital that no one can debase, that no one can confiscate from you. Right? It gives you a sense of ownership and equity stake in a system that's completely built on debt. And it's the most accessible form of capital in the world. When you really think about it. You can't be in the developing country and purchase a fraction of a beachfront property in Miami and hope it goes up in value. But you can buy satoshis, right? Or earn satoshis. So where do you think that disconnect is? And how are we going to get mainstream to adopt bitcoin in terms of the masses, like at that global level?
- [23:56]
A
So I don't agree with the statement that institutions are buying it. Now. I agree with what you're saying, but let me rephrase it. So when BlackRock has buyers, that's retail. It may not be buying the actual bitcoin. They might be using an ETF stuff. But this is kind of the issue that I had in writing the silent ipo, which is there's four groups of people that I think people should think about when it comes to bitcoin demand. So the first one was the OG ideological group. So to be ideological is great. They had a libertarian view. They want to get away from the system. That's great. As Marc Andreessen said, okay, that's great. But if it doesn't get the other buyers, it's just a hobby. It just sits around and then eventually decays and you sell it back off to zero. There's plenty of stories of libertarian moves. The second stage is the people who bought when I did, which was 2020, Michael Saylor. That group was born out of a I don't trust that the government isn't doing something completely ridiculous. If they're going to print this much money and really debase us, I'm going to buy this. So this was kind of the, the pre innovation benefit side. This was the oh my God, you're doing something. And that's when I bought. And part of the reason I bought was listening to Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor is the treasury buying meaning if you take his number out, it's small, it's microstrategy all of the other ones combined don't get close to what he has. So you've got retail is buying now and that retail is coming through. And they're in the third bucket. They're just making portfolio diversification decisions like Rick Edelman said. So that group is the third bucket, and that group is growing. And so we now have, I think we're up to about 150 billion of IBIT or of the ETF holdings. Well, let's assume that the OGs have sold 150 billion. Well, that's just pairing off. Treasury company they're buying, but it's not that much. The one that's the smaller group that will be the eventual group. The one that is, I think, part ideology and part that third bucket of retail. Those are the people around the globe. I think a lot of people in America think that bitcoin is an American thing. It's not. It's a global thing. And most of the ownership is outside the US not the dollar ownership, but the numbers. The people in Brazil, the people in Vietnam, the people in the Philippines, the people in India. I mean, that's 8 billion potential buyers that are interested in this. And I think that bucket is very small, but it's growing. And now it's gonna grow faster because of stablecoins remittances and everything starting to happen. So as you see stablecoins go up to the volumes that people are predicting, it will be a natural migration because bitcoin has no borders. It is not a US Stock market. It's not a European stock market. It's not any of these. The only thing that has worked as an investment over the last 17 years, aside from gold, and aside from bitcoin, has basically been the Mag 7. Everything else you've kind of suffered in and had no returns.
- [27:00]
B
Right. When you zoom out, I know that as a macro investor, you're thinking about five years, 10 years. Can you tell me what you think bitcoin's role will be in, say, five to 10 years time as an asset? Because we see gold obviously surging, central banks are buying. I think there's a shift at the monetary level in terms of reserve asset status. Do you think bitcoin will maybe play a role in that? Governments actually accumulating bitcoin? How do you see this playing out within the greater financial system?
- [27:31]
A
Okay, this is where my views get a little out there.
- [27:35]
B
Okay.
- [27:37]
A
So first of all, I think if we pan out a generation and we go out 25 years, there will be a transfer of wealth that happens the baby boomers, even with Rick's thing, their life will extend, but they will still go through the normal course of dying. Their kids will get money. And the ownership thing for bitcoin is very simple. Below the age of 60, everyone owns Bitcoin. Or at least below the age of 40, everyone owns it, but the ownership is basically nothing. In the baby boomers, I think it's 10% at this point in terms of the numbers as that money transfers that will happen. So that is a given for me in terms of what's gone on the store of value relative to gold. Gold, in my opinion, based on the way the economy will look, which is with AI agents, it's all about velocity. So we get back to the Caitlin Long thing. People need to start realizing if you have velocity, velocity is about the speed of transactions. Physical gold to me does not live in that world. That is not what it's about. So I think bitcoin will become positive on that framework relative to gold. But the more important thing for people out there is that, that I have learned my lesson and I have to write something on this to make it clear. I believe that bitcoin's greatest asset is time. And I have something I learned in my days of learning how to meditate, which was if you get caught in the moment, which is highly emotional, you forget how long the path is going to be. And that's why as a macro person, I try to grab myself and say, stop worrying about whether Bitcoin is 105 or 95. I know one thing, if it's at 130 in three months, no one's going to remember that it was at 95 and they're just going to be chasing it higher. So let's forget about that picture and let's start thinking about what will happen to all innovations. So I believe artificial intelligence will disrupt every single existing public company. And there will be no way to have a business that isn't out competed from artificial intelligence. Entrepreneurs will rise, private companies will rise, they'll never go public. The capital structure will change. And so what bitcoin becomes in 15 years is the only thing on the planet as an idea that actually has a moat. That's part of the digital economy. Everything else. So if you think of what happened to Gamestop, well, it lost to this. Every idea that is an S&P 500 name was an idea at some point. It was an innovation. The lifespan of an S&P 500 company is shrinking every single year. So I believe all innovations in Time will shrink and what Bitcoin has and what it's immune to is time. It will always be here. And now that it's a $2 trillion asset or was and now it's slightly below, I think it has achieved moat status and very few things in our lives have moats right now.
- [30:30]
B
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- [32:26]
A
I think it will be bigger than gold as well. I thought this year, at the beginning of the year, I didn't say this publicly but I thought we'd be at least three times higher than we are now because of all the things that have happened. So when I hear people frustrate, it's like, yeah, I thought we'd be higher too. So relative to my expectations, this may have been the most wrong I've ever been in thinking about things a year out. And that's fine because at the end, I learned a lot during the time of spending time. If I would have been right, I wouldn't have paid attention as much and gone through who is still selling this, and then learn more about dormant coins, what's going on, why this is happening. I wouldn't have writ the silent ipo. So I kind of take my. My mistakes as being something to learn from. I do think when you look back, it actually makes sense that this was not the year AI was still an easy place to invest. Gold was something that became a momentum name where retail was involved. I never thought I'd see that. I never thought I'd see gold have higher volatility than bitcoin. A lot of things changed this year that I think have ended up being something that's different. So I'm going to bring it up for the third time. When I say something for the third time, that usually means it's in my head and I can't get rid of it. People need to think about Caitlin Long's story that she's talked about for at least four years, Velocity versus leverage. It's really important to come from Caitlin because Caitlin is a banking expert on the tradfi world who's been trying to fight for the financial guardrails. So she understands this concept. And if velocity goes up, go back to the traditional finance world and realize why we've been printing so much money. Because we can't get get Velocity. And once we have Velocity again, we don't need as much leverage. And that means bitcoin to me, is the winner relative to every other asset. And if they're not doing well, one thing I know about all human beings, they will invest in what's working right.
- [34:16]
B
Can you share your bitcoin backstory? How did you get into this?
- [34:20]
A
Yeah, it's an interesting story. So I had small investments into Bitcoin because I believed in the blockchain as an eventual technology that was would. Was necessary, particularly from my experience in the banking world working for Morgan Stanley. But in 2020, at the, let's say, the end of the year, my son called me up and basically said, hey, I'm up to $20,000 in my crypto account. I'm like, wait a second, didn't you put $700 into this. He goes, yeah, I've made a lot of money. And I just remember sitting there going, okay, all right. We're going skiing this weekend. We drove to the Catskills, and I had him. I've had hundreds of people work for me who manage money, either as portfolio managers or traders. And he gave me all of his positions, and he had a story that was unbelievable. He was 13 at the time.
- [35:18]
B
Oh, my gosh.
- [35:19]
A
Now, these were. None of them were Bitcoin. They were all tokens that. That now are worthless or most of them are worthless. He made it all the way up to 80,000, and then it went down to 700. But the thing that was most interesting.
- [35:31]
B
Is he wrote it back down to 6,000.
- [35:33]
A
He wrote it back down. It's now in the thousands. But again, he wrote it all the way back down. And to me, I kept telling him, how are you not taking at least a third of it, moving it to bitcoin? Do something that's a. He had his eyes on the prize, and everything was good. So he blew up, took advantage of the fact that he had a long time to make it up. He uses it on all his college resumes and everything. At this point, he's now a sophomore in college. But when he told me the story, it was really more that he knew all about the names. And I asked him where this came from. He's like, what do you mean? I'm like, you just gave me, like, great analysis on why you're long. These tokens. Where did you get that information from? Because I never heard of the tokens, but I didn't know where to get that kind of information. I'm on a Bloomberg that doesn't exist. And what he told me was he got it from Reddit and X, and so he's 13 years old. And I went, there's something here. Because my son, who was playing Fortnite and had figured out how to open a wallet, do all this investing, I was like, this is a different world than what I'm used to. So on the drive back and then the subsequent weekend when we went skiing again, I listened to about seven hours of Michael Saylor interviews. And what Michael Saylor did for me were two things. And for people who, you know, don't appreciate Michael Saylor, I regularly listened to Peter Diamandis in the crowd at moonshots on artificial intelligence. Michael Saylor was a roommate of Peter Diamandis. Michael Saylor went to mit. Michael Saylor is a really smart person, and he had the innovation side. But he also told me a story that resonated with what I talked about, which is the zombification of companies that was going on in the S&P 500. And he was one of those. His company was becoming a zombie. And he talks openly about, if you're a zombie, you need to buy bitcoin and save your business. And the way he explained it to me, which at that time was about the debasement side, was not only articulate, but he had studied the history of finance before he made the decision and sold it to his board. And so as I was listening to him more and more, I became more interested as literally the nexus of innovation and macro. At that time, I was already a big Peter Diamandis and Singularity University person. Subsequently, when ChatGPT was launched, that was the moment that I decided, okay, no one's going to realize this, but from Michael, my son, to Michael Saylor to ChatGPT, this is the moment for bitcoin where it is the purest artificial intelligence trade. Because the end of this whole innovation deflation that Jeff Booth has talked about is artificial intelligence.
- [38:06]
B
That is so fascinating. I didn't know that Michael Saylor was so influential in your journey. I mean, he has been for so many people. His stock has not performed well this year. Obviously it's amplified bitcoin and we've been chopping along. What do you think about MSTR as an investment as well as the preferreds?
- [38:23]
A
I'm long mstr. I've bought more on the way down. I do believe it should always have a premium. So I'm not a negative MNAV guy or any of these things. The reason is because I'm believing two things. One is that that the digital capital of the world is going to change. And as it changes, someone that owns the most bitcoin gets to do things with their business that they otherwise wouldn't be able to do. We have to get to that point where bitcoin is actually used for collateral rewards, used for things, then it can be done in this. He's already shown that he's creative in terms of structured products and delivering this in a vehicle that most people can invest in. So I believe in all of the vehicles, I believe it'll have a premium because eventually just some, like stocks have a pe, it will. So I buy into the whole concept and I understand why. On the one side, the traditional fiat world thinks it's a scam and they believe it should go to zero, and then on the other side, it has Two components to it. And this is the thing I want to say to everyone who's maybe disappointed this year. Yes, it has the bitcoin side, but it also has the volatility side. He has sold enough volatility to compress it. So when you take, take the bitcoin OG selling versus let's just simplify it and say IBIT inflows and they just keep going like this, well, you're depressing volatility. His stock should be going down relative to bitcoin because there's a volatility component. I still believe eventually we will have a major short squeeze in bitcoin. And I think in my history of trading markets that will occur soon. Because when you trade in a range and volatility declines, if you make another high and you start going through it and people start jumping into does have, it'll run out of sellers. And that's the one thing I will say is every time an OG seller sells to, let's assume that every IBIT buyer, when you add them up in a day, is a thousand buyers. So you have one seller and you have a thousand buyers. Little tiny things. They're allocating from a start. They're not going to sell. So once you get through all of that selling from, there's not going to be anybody left to sell. And I think Michael knows that. And that's why when he says it'll get above gold, I believe it'll be above gold's market cap. And I believe it has to happen at a time when there's no other innovation, stocks that are working and people are looking to diversify their portfolio. And if you add in my thoughts on next year will be a we're curing cancer thoughts because of AI drug discovery. Once you get to that, then Rick's thing starts to become more of a topic of conversation too.
- [40:58]
B
Well, you make some great points because the fundamentals are so strong right now when it comes to bitcoin and the asymmetric opportunity risk reward at this, this is a great time to actually get in. And if you're interested in the bitcoin treasury companies, it's arguably a great time for those as well. Do you think that bitcoin will be something that people invest in more passively where they don't even even think about it? Or do you think that we will see a surge again of like everyone wanting to own spot bitcoin like they did in 2021?
- [41:29]
A
I think you'll have some of that. I think most of that will come from Again, the, the. The holders and the buyers that are happening around the globe. I really do mean what I say when there's 7 billion people who, who want to escape their country.
- [41:44]
B
Right.
- [41:44]
A
And I've actually never said this on, On. On a podcast, so I'll give it to you free. I, I had a conversation with Michael Milken about four years ago out at his house in California, and we were talking about the dollar. And I was actually, it was more. It was before COVID So this was 2019. And it's important for the story because I was telling him and we would do this occasionally. We, I think we had two conversations where we would debate and I would share my views, he would share his. And I have very strong views on things that come with a lot of data, and he has a lot of strong views that come from data. But on the dollar theme, he convinced me instantaneously to stop thinking of the dollar a certain way, which is the way a lot of people with bitcoin think about it. So his point was, jordy, if we open the borders tomorrow and gave everyone one day around the planet to come to America, we'd have a line of seven and a half billion people to come in. And the second he said it, I completely agree. Whatever people's views on immigration are, people want to come here, and they want to come here for a reason. And if you've lived overseas like I have in Brazil, it resonated with me. I think that is the way people think of bitcoin to a degree, is the way we as Americans remember America as this place of freedom, this place to go where the government literally is not. Not on top of you the way it was in my country. So bitcoin is still going to be a place that people are going to go into. And I still think that seven and a half billion people on the planet will eventually be putting money in at a fast pace. Stablecoins, to me, are going to accelerate that move in a very, very big way. And that's why I believe in the network effects for bitcoin right now as the same thing that happened in the network effects for all the platform stocks that have become major parts of all of our portfolios. If we own the S&P5.
- [43:35]
B
Is Milken a bitcoiner?
- [43:39]
A
I don't think we talked about it because at that time, it was not a focal point. If I had to guess, I would say no. Interesting. It's just a guess on my part. I haven't seen him since that day. But that was a Very memorable point in my life because it was an hour and a half. It was a very big debate. A lot of it got into debt. A lot of it got into my views on exponential innovation. I won on that one. He lost on that one because he's a debt person. I told him it would just keep going and that corporate debt would actually go down and it's been replaced by government debt. But I think. I don't know what his views on bitcoin are.
- [44:14]
B
Well, if you think about the global aspect, all these currencies are inflating at rates far higher than the dollar. I mean, we've seen hyperinflation events in certain places, right? Crises in Lebanon and Venezuela. So why isn't the adoption rate of bitcoin higher? It is there as a lifeline, but it seems like people have almost been fleeing to the dollar more than bitcoin.
- [44:39]
A
Well, first of all, bitcoin holders just continue to increase, so it hasn't stopped. And I think a 16Z put out their state of crypto, which is a report that I like to read every year. And I just went through it. I'll include a lot of it on my, my YouTube this week. And they highlight the fact that the holders around the globe continue to increase, particularly in other countries. I do think stablecoin has a slight negative on one aspect because if you're in Argentina and you want to save the money you have, you have two choices. Let's say you have stablecoin dollar back stablecoin, you have bitcoin. Yeah, well, now that you have a dollar back stablecoin, if you just want to put it in someplace safe where there's no volatility, you got it. And so if you're going from a place where it could devalue by 90%, stablecoin will be part. But eventually what'll happen is they'll want to accrue wealth too. And they'll be like, oh, I want to make money too. I don't want to just hold it. So let me take a percentage of that and move it in. So the normal. And we talk about that in the US what is a US version of stablecoin for Argentina? It's called money market funds. And the money market goes in there. And so every now and then people will be, oh, the money's going to leave money market funds. It's going to go into risk assets. That's the whole point is, I think the first step is for these countries to move money and remittances into stablecoins and then once they have a wallet set up, it's just a normal thing to be like, I want to buy something else. Let me move it into this. What will happen with tokenization is that'll increase the ability for people to do other assets. The beauty is for me, and I've said this multiple times, AI agents are the greatest thing to come to bitcoin. They will be transacting more digital, making decisions that are based on truth and reality, not emotion. Why don't traditional finance people own bitcoin? They say they love good Sharpe ratios. That's not true because then they'd have a lot of their money in bitcoin. They're actually making emotional decisions because they've created this narrative. Because the one thing that scares people, and this goes back to, to your question about AI bubble. Why do people compare this to the dot com bubble? They wouldn't compare it to the dot com bubble if there never was a dot com bubble. So you have one data point and people go, this is just like the dot com bubble. It's not just like the dot com bubble.
- [46:56]
B
Yeah. One thing that's in the headlines that I would love to get your thoughts on is just the housing affordability crisis. So aside from bitcoin, although homes are getting cheaper priced at bitcoin, but obviously the administration putting out all these ideas, 50 year mortgage, portable mortgages. And I just wanted to get your thoughts on what will make housing actually more affordable because young people really do feel priced out. They're increasingly renters and they feel like rent is also just a massive portion of their income. So how do we fix that issue.
- [47:28]
A
In the near term? I don't see any chance that it gets significantly better. I do believe it's all about deflation, but not the deflation that people worry about. I believe we're on the beginning stages of significant pressure on things to come down. Rents are coming down. So the housing market is already kind of softening as it is. Drug prices are going to come down based on AI drug discovery. So the administration is focused on this. The healthcare side is a lot of the inflation that's still there. So where the government has been involved, education, health care and also housing has been a problem. I think all of these little things are not going to change the puzzle. If the Fed lowers rates by 100 basis points Next year, that will absolutely help young people by moving mortgages lower. I do think some of these things and I think the portable mortgage thing has always been an answer that I agree with. Anthony has talked about it when we've sat down and he was the first person I actually heard talk about it, and this was months ago where I. It should happen. I think if they can find a way to do this, both Democrats and Republicans should agree on it. I think because of the midterms, we will do something in housing that has to happen. To your point of when does it actually get to the point where it actually works so people know this. The only way it gets there is with the acceleration of AI. When we have humanoids, the cost of building a house will go down significantly. And if the cost of building a house goes down, down significantly, the cost of the house goes down. So we have a. We have another five years to wait before that process kicks in. So in the interim, what the government is doing before deflation actually sets in, from exponential innovation to Jeff's point, if you can have that happen, everything kind of works out in a good way. It will happen eventually. It's just going to take some time.
- [49:21]
B
You might disagree with me, but thinking about humanoid robots building houses, I'm just thinking of just dystopian, like, everything looks the same, square, colorless. I don't know. I just. I want to go back to the times where people built great buildings. The houses were beautiful and colorful, and they withstood the test of time. And now, gosh, construction, it's so fiat and you have to replace things every few years. And I can't imagine AI, just the mass production aspect of it. I. I don't know. I guess I like things when they're artisan, handmade by our ancestors.
- [49:57]
A
Do you go out to dinner with friends, Natalie?
- [49:59]
B
I do.
- [49:59]
A
Okay. Do you look around at the tables around you?
- [50:02]
B
Yeah. A lot of people are just sitting in their phones.
- [50:04]
A
You know, when that didn't happen, 1997, 1998. We adapt. Okay. I hated initially when I saw people talking out on the streets with the little cords on, and it annoyed me. And now, Now I do practice presentations when I'm out in the street with my AirPods talking to ChatGPT. So the world changes. It feels bad, and I agree with you, but the phone thing at the restaurants, I don't do it. I hate it. That's the meditation. Everyone needs to meditate. You're taking a deep breath right now.
- [50:36]
B
It's good. Well, I saw this woman doing the tutorial of the Facebook, the meta glasses. And you make certain gestures and you walk around and I. I guess you can see something in the screen. And I'm sure we're about to start seeing that where people are just doing motions and they're looking through the glasses, but they're not. They're not looking at you, they're staring at something, coming up to them, coming up on the screen. And I just. I don't know, I mean, I guess it's the sign of the times. Everything evolves and changes.
- [51:04]
A
This is. So you just mentioned something that's going to really bother people. So if you take your phone out and you go like this and pretend like you're taking a photo of someone, well, you didn't give approval for that. With the glasses, you can already do that. So it's come to the point where privacy is completely lost. And I think these are the issues that come on in life that get people there. Humanoids are invading privacy, phones are invading privacy, everything's invading privacy.
- [51:30]
B
Well, and it blurs the lines of how should government and regulation get involved? Because I'm normally someone that's very hands off, but when you have technologies that more easily invade people's privacy, someone has to do something. Right. Because you can walk around with glasses that are recording people, and that's not right. And I think the metas, they have a little light and if it turns on, if it's recording or something, I don't know. But it's just so crazy what's happening so quickly.
- [51:56]
A
So I have a home and it's in Maine. The reason I have a home in Maine is because there's not many people there except for the summertime.
- [52:06]
B
You're off grid.
- [52:07]
A
I'm off the grid. I am a very. I really try not to be around technology. That's why Matt and I get along so poorly. Yeah, that's great. No, but I do like to be in Maine and be away from everything because I can have kind of the normal thing. I love to ski because when you're skiing and I used to always joke, I'm like, you know how many people I talked to when I was skiing? It's just the people on the chairlift and it's just what I'm talking. It's the ones who don't have their AirPods on as they're skiing. I like nature and I like hanging around. So there is a way to get away from it or balance it out. I just think, think people are being a little naive if they don't think they'll be doing the same thing soon.
- [52:43]
B
Well, you just made me think of something because I've spoken to so many successful people who they have their little off grid place and they've, they've stockpiled their necessities just in case, you know, if, if there's civil unrest, they have their escape plan. Do you think that we're going to come to a place in this country where there is this friction and political instability that gets to a level of violence and revolution because the, the working class feels so frustrated and resentful and they feel like the elites did not earn what they have. And it comes together in a big clash.
- [53:18]
A
I think it's already happening. It's just the version that you wouldn't categorize it the way you're describing it. So I guess what I'd say is whether it's the government sending in ice into cities and you see all this kind of conflict going in there, whether it's people being assassinated, whether it's voting for socialism, this is the version of people just not feeling like they have a place here. When you mentioned the, you know, the, the difference in net worth, that is the problem. And that's why I brought up Joseph Schumpeter. It's gotten to that point now. Do I think it's going to get really bad? No. No, I don't.
- [53:59]
B
You don't?
- [54:00]
A
No, I don't. I think it's going to continue to be very polarizing. The friction will be there. But this is the reason why I started to originally invest in Bitcoin and why I think it should be in everyone's portfolio. So everyone who's watching, who enjoys Natalie, who does not invest in Bitcoin already, you need to have a percentage of your portfolio, whether it's 1%, 5%, 10%, at least for younger people, that is kind of the belief is that the innovation is creating the problem. So if you go back to my belief, which is my grandmother was born in 1920. I gave a presentation, not a press. Oh, my gosh. I gave her eulogy presentation thinking I was a banker and something. So I gave her eulogy. She was born in 1920. So think about her life by the time she was 25 and how just horrible it was. She lived through the Great Depression. She couldn't get food. Then she worked in a sweatshop to help build or make clothing for World War II. And so at 25, she's been through all of that. She was the nicest person I ever met. She was the most caring, empathetic person to a fault. She didn't use any leverage. And she basically told me a million times, never take at I was a doom and gloom person. Up into a certain time. And then I started to realize the reason she was like that. And this is why the whole Fourth Turning is legitimate. You go from that extreme, living through his horrible life, and then you go through this. This is not bad. And I think the fact that I lived in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and I literally had to wear a Timex watch and pretend like I had no money is when I really learned how bad it is. It is not bad here. I don't think it's going to get much better in the near term because. Because of the dystopian nature of AI But I do think when we come out of that, like the Fourth Turning says, I think the next generation will be creating a better environment.
- [55:52]
B
That's really interesting. I mean, I just thought of my late grandmother who was born in 1927. This was in Poland. You know, she grew up in a very oppressive environment and went through World War II. Was eating, like, potato skins. That was all that they could afford. Was almost taken to a concentration camp. I mean, just struggle. Struggled so much, came here, worked in kitchens, could barely speak the language. She came here in her 60s. Very, very tough for her. When she came and she made it. She was always in such high spirits, so happy. Worked until she couldn't possibly work anymore and had this strong work ethic. Made meals every single night. And today we see young people who have their gadgets and their phone and their, you know, have their Starbucks, and they're depressed. They don't want to have families. We have a huge mental health crisis. We have a huge, like, drug overdose, opioid crisis. I mean, I. What happened? Because it seems like previous generations did have it a lot harder in so many ways. And yet today, with all these technologies, people are feeling like they have no hope.
- [57:02]
A
So I will blame technology, and I'll go back to what we talked about with the dinners and stuff like that. I do think we've reached a point where the technology has disrupted jobs. It's disrupting identities and people being able to say who they are. Your grandmother and my grandmother, they sound very similar in the fact that they survived. And because they survived it, they eventually. I mean, my grandmother literally had nothing bad to say about anybody.
- [57:31]
B
Yeah, same.
- [57:32]
A
Yeah. She was just very loving. And was she an important influence in your life?
- [57:36]
B
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- [57:37]
A
Same for me. My parents got divorced when I was in high school, but I was not a. Let's say, a planned child. And so they weren't going to get married. And then they ended up getting married, and they fought a lot. And I ended up with my grandmother, who lived in the same town. And so she had a huge influence on the way that I thought. And as time went on, she was fearless, which I'm sure your grandmother was, too. And I'm sure a lot of the fearlessness. You've created your own career in this, you've done all that stuff. You can look back and reflect on her and be like, wow, she did a lot for me in the same way I did. I think the generation doesn't have that. I don't think their parents can tell a similar story. I don't think their grandparents can. Of today's generation, this goes back to the Fourth Turning. I mean, my grandmother died at 98. I gave her eulogies now, seven years ago. It's a different time, because if your grandmother dies and she was born in 1950, it's a different situation than what we saw with our grandparents. So I just think that stuff matters a lot. And that's why I say when I lived in Brazil and then even later when I traveled to China for a month of the year and I did grassroots kind of kind of investing. They're not that far from the Cultural Revolution. So different societies in different places are still going through their own version. It's just the United States of America that these problems withdraw. An affluent problem to me and the fact that we have technology, we've lost this community of people. I just think that's what's going on.
- [59:08]
B
Yeah. I mean, I feel like it's almost controversial, but I think that it's important to struggle. And I don't like this victim mentality. And everything just needs to be accommodated to you and your emotions. Like, I don't like that. That's not how I was raised. I believe that, you know, someone should be tough on you. I respond well to tough love and, you know, criticism. That builds me up and builds my character and helps me improve. Cause we don't just, like, you know, walk out and we're perfect at whatever we're doing, and we need to fall down and make mistakes and learn from them. And I feel like today, some. Some, not all, but some young people I meet, I feel like they have a sense of entitlement and they feel like everything's tough when. Oh, my gosh, I wish you could spend an hour talking to my late grandmother because she went through a lot more than you're going through.
- [59:53]
A
I agree with you. The one thing I'll say, maybe this comes from. So the downside of working in the corporate World. And I was at Morgan Stanley for 11 years. In the end, I managed a lot of people. And again, I got a lot of victim status from people back then about, oh, I should have been promoted. I should have got this. It was a different, different form of it. And especially from someone who didn't go to an Ivy League school and kind of worked their way up. I didn't understand what the complaints were. I was like, if I ever make $50,000, I'm happy. So when you come from nothing, you don't think of it that way. I do think there are a lot more people than you know, that are younger, that are still the same. They're still. They do have a hard life in an upbringing, and they fought through. I just think those stories, a. They're harder to find because you hear the complaints, you see them on social media. The people fought through things. They don't go viral. And, you know, it's not. It's not like you're, You're. You're. You're going through it. But I do think there's probably a similar percentage of those people that exist, and my hope is that they will become the leaders coming out of AI I pray.
- [61:05]
B
I was just about to say that they're going to be our leaders.
- [61:08]
A
I do think so. I met enough military people over the years that I think would be great leaders. But I think it's been a tough time for people to get into politics because there's a lot of downside to it. You're going to be scrutinized, you're going to go through it. And even though people, I think, maybe have the ability to survive through it, the voting block is still very weird. I think, as the fourth turning happened. I can't believe I'm saying this all the time because it was not something I ever said until, like a month ago. I do believe in the concept of generational turning, but I think people should look forward that the youth of tomorrow, once that becomes the dominant, dominant force and we have this transition of generations and that money gets handed down. I do think there'll be leaders that come out that are exactly what you and I are looking for.
- [61:54]
B
Fair enough. Well, thank you so much for joining me, Jordi. It's been a great conversation. Anything you want to leave the audience with?
- [62:00]
A
No, I just. I really appreciate the fact that people read the paper that I wrote, that it went viral. I don't know how long it would have taken for you to reach out and ask me to come on. I'm glad you did. I hope it's not the last time and I look forward to the next.
- [62:17]
B
Time so for sure. Well I will link to Bitcoin's IPO moment as well as your other work. Thank you so much and I'll see you again soon, hopefully in the studio.
- [62:24]
A
Thanks Natalie.
- [62:25]
B
Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories. Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss any new episodes and if you can turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review, they really help the show grow organically with new listeners. We have a free weekly newsletter you can sign up@the newsblock daily.subfac.com. this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing should constitute as official investment advice and you should always do your own research. I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach out at info@talkingbitcoin.com. i'll see you next time.