Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Episode: Lyn Alden: Gradual vs. Big Print, the Missing Retail Wave, and Bitcoin's Next Catalyst
Date: February 17, 2026
Guest: Lyn Alden

Episode Overview

This episode features macro analyst Lyn Alden discussing Bitcoin’s current cycle, the absence of a retail-driven wave, the impact of institutional and corporate involvement, macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin and other assets, and what catalysts could drive the next big move. Alden and Brunell also explore the performance of precious metals, the rise of AI stocks, capital allocation strategies, and the psychology of investing in volatile markets. The tone is analytical, candid, and reflective—tempered optimism with a healthy dose of realism.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Sentiment in the Current Bitcoin Cycle

• Low Retail Engagement:
  • Alden highlights distinct lack of retail FOMO. Neither sovereigns nor broad-based retail joined this cycle; institutional and high net-worth individuals dominated.

    "Sovereigns didn’t really show up...and retail didn’t really show up. Instead, the only real players this time were kind of in the middle: the corporate, institutional side." (03:13)

• Weaker Bull Market Narrative:
  • Bitcoin performance was overshadowed by AI and GPU stock rallies, which drew investor attention.

    "When you have RAM stocks soaring, GPU stocks soaring, and AI-related things soaring, Bitcoin...wasn’t a unique thing in terms of price action. That was a downward force on getting retail in this time." (01:33, 01:52)

2. Price Action and Market Structure

• Cycle Disappointment:
  • The cycle peak ($126,000) was below expectations.

    "Anything under 150k would be pretty disappointing. We only got to 126,006...I think mainly just the top line demand was mediocre this cycle." (02:20, 04:08)

• Impact of Institutionalization:
  • More ETF derivatives and shorting have flattened volatility on both ends—less upside, but also fewer deep drawdowns.

    "It’s harder for any one entity to really move the price around...the larger the asset gets, the more liquid it is. The derivatives part is inevitable...But I don’t think that’s the chief reason we didn’t see explosive upside." (04:25, 05:32)

• Retail & Sovereign Absence:
  • The absence of sovereigns/retail left only institutions driving attention. No altcoin “season” also dampened the usual speculative flair. (03:13)

3. Precious Metals and Capital Rotation

• Asymmetry Gone:
  • Gold and silver rallied but became less asymmetric post-rise.

    "I view them as just less asymmetric now...after they’ve soared, it’s more like I wouldn’t be surprised by a 50% pullback or new highs again. It’s just less asymmetric than when they were near their mining costs and underowned." (06:08)

• Comparison with Bitcoin:
  • Both Bitcoin and precious metals have become larger—and thus “duller” in terms of asymmetric upside potential.

4. Macro Backdrop: Stock Market, Gold, and AI

• US Stocks Priced in Gold:
  • Despite nominal highs in US indices, Alden notes underperformance relative to gold—mirroring situations in emerging markets with weak currencies and high money printing.

    "Nominally in dollar terms, the stock market’s been doing fine...But broadly speaking, it’s underperformed gold for many years at this point, which is generally what you see when you have that more debasement-focused type of economy." (12:39)

• Capital Expenditures & AI:
  • High spending on AI infrastructure is a new driver of macro volatility and capital rotation.

    "AI data centers want high uptime, can pay quite a bit for power... bitcoin miners have to find the absolute lowest cost electricity." (15:29)

• "You can't print" Inputs:
  • Highlighting looming resource bottlenecks, from data centers to rare earths:

    "You can’t print some of these things...You can print the dollars. And I guess we have an advantage with being the reserve, but...how are we going to get all of the things that we need actually built in the next 10 to 15 years if we're going to reshore..." (21:20)

5. Gradual vs. "Big Print" and the Fed's Policy

• No “Nuclear Print” Likely:
  • Alden argues for a gradual expansion of liquidity unless a major crisis intervenes.

    "Mainly because the conditions are not such they would need to print in the near future...a little printing gets them a long way. The Fed can buy a little bit of the bonds..." (26:43)

• High Bar for QE:
  • Stock market corrections alone won't trigger big stimulus; only severe liquidity crunches or unemployment spikes might.

    "The Fed only cares mainly about the liquidity of the Treasury market and the interbank lending market. Even stocks going down 10, 20, 30% is not really going to be a catalyst for the Fed to print." (28:52)

6. Wealth Concentration, Social Tensions, and Asset Ownership

• Inequality Data:
  • 90% of stocks are held by the top 10%. Top 10% do almost 50% of all consumer spending.

    "Stock market's 200% of GDP. 90% of stocks are held by the top 10% of society and the top 10% does nearly 50% of consumer spending...no wonder it trickles into these societal issues." (30:37)

• Civil Unrest & “Powder Keg” Society:
  • Rising polarization, AI fears, macro stress, and asset concentration are exacerbating social tensions.

    "Political polarization grows when you have fiscal dominance...these things feed on each other and it’s hard to know where it ends up." (31:12)

7. Investment Psychology: Diversification and Managing Expectations

• Cycle Fatigue & Lost Faith:
  • Many recent entrants are disappointed and exhausted by the lack of explosive upside.

    "We've had kind of two semi-disappointing cycles...I would go back actually to diversification. It’s unfashionable when Bitcoin is soaring, but in a flat period, especially in a portfolio that rebalances, you lean into those weaker moments." (45:01)

• Dangers of “Betting Big” when “Behind”:
  • Alden cautions against taking outsized risk in a bid to catch up, recommending instead investing in oneself and maintaining a diversified portfolio.

    "I would recommend caution with that approach of feeling that if someone's behind, they have to bet riskier...Financial nihilism is enticing, but I would recommend most people against it." (48:18)

• Advises Bet on Yourself:
  • Suggests using AI and entrepreneurial strategies for upside rather than seeking 100x bets in risky assets.

8. Bitcoin’s Bull Thesis, Network Effects, and What’s Missing

• Bull Case:
  • Bitcoin has won the network effects battle, especially relative to altcoins.

    "Second biggest cryptocurrency has not made a new high in bitcoin terms since 2017... I think bitcoin, 17 years in, is firmly kind of winning that network effect and security argument." (41:40)

• Missing Catalyst:
  • Despite strong infrastructure and no serious competition, top-line demand is absent this cycle.

    "Tools are built now...People have to, one, realize they exist, two, see how they can help them, and three, actually use them. Still, education is a key part." (51:40)

• Potential Triggers:
  • A narrative shift, stock market rotation, or a surprising capital allocation event could kickstart a bull run.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Retail Absence:

  "People were talking about the strategic bitcoin reserve...and then the other side is retail didn’t really show up. Instead, the only real players this time were corporate, institutional side..." (03:13)

• On AI's Impact:

  "The winners...will be those that are kind of on the leading edge of AI...It's disruptive, but that's ultimately a good thing. Consumers kind of win from this." (18:26)

• On Gradual Printing:

  "I think this system is going to go on for quite a while in a state that doesn’t need massive, massive printing. A little printing gets them a long way." (26:43)

• On Wealth Inequality:

  "The top 10% does nearly 50% of consumer spending... we're just so top heavy... it's a powder keg." (30:37)

• On Diversification:

  "Bull markets, diversification is unfashionable. But in bear markets, we're kind of reminded why." (45:01)

• On Bitcoin's Value & Adoption:

  "A decentralized ledger is valuable...it’s more valuable than its current 0.2% of global assets...the fact that bitcoin is kind of unique in this regard compared to the long tail of other cryptos, but that top line demand has just not been here this cycle." (41:02)

• On Investing as a Chess Game:

  "Investing and macro [are like] a chess game, but then where the rules slowly change over time. You never solve the puzzle. The puzzle’s always evolving." (51:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00-03:00 | Reflections on Cycle Weakness, Retail Absence | | 03:52-06:08 | Impact of Derivatives, Institutional Suppression, Metals | | 11:23-12:39 | Alternative Assets: Latin America, Gold-vs-Stocks | | 14:53-18:26 | AI’s Macro Impact, Data Centers & Resource Constraints | | 21:20-23:41 | Reshoring, Geopolitics, US Manufacturing | | 26:43-30:37 | Gradual vs. Big Print, Central Bank Balance Sheets | | 30:37-33:56 | Wealth Inequality, Dividends at Record Lows | | 34:04-37:55 | Gradual Print: Implications for Bitcoin, Bottoming Markers | | 38:12-40:35 | M2/Liquidity Correlations, Software Stocks, Cross-Asset Flows | | 41:02-43:33 | Bitcoin’s Bull Thesis & Network Effects | | 43:33-46:53 | Cycle Fatigue, Diversification, Investing Psychology | | 48:18-51:10 | Caution Against Big Risks, Art of Investing | | 53:07-53:59 | Lyn’s New Sci-Fi Book Announcement |

Final Highlights

• Outlook:
  Despite frustrations among recent entrants, Alden remains a cautiously optimistic “bearish bull.” She advises education, realistic expectations, and diversified investing—seeing long-term value in self-custodial, hard money like Bitcoin, but noting that path-dependent, macro, and psychological challenges are real.

• Lyn’s Sci-Fi Novel:
  She announces her upcoming near-future fiction book (out March 2026), exploring themes of VR, AI dominance, Bitcoin’s role, and the challenge of verifying reality in an information-saturated world. (53:07)

• Closing Wisdom:
  Investing rules change; temper greed with prudence and always keep learning.

For Lyn Alden’s work:
Subscribe at linalden.com
Read: Broken Money and her upcoming fiction release

Summary Author’s Note:
This episode provides a nuanced, reality-checked view of Bitcoin, macro cycles, and wealth. Alden’s insight is grounded, self-critical, and draws direct connections between policy, market behavior, and personal financial strategy—a must-listen for any serious macro or crypto follower.