← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
News Block: Bitcoin Price Consolidates, Fed Dissent Raises Concerns, Boomers Guard Real Estate Wealth, Strive–Semler Merger Builds 10,900 Bitcoin Treasury
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In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Fed cuts rates but Miran's dissent fuels Fed independence concerns Bond market...
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Welcome to the Coinsories news block, powered exclusively by LEDN. I'm Natalie Brunel, and in about 10 minutes or less, I'll provide you with insightful updates on Bitcoin, financial markets and the global economy. Everything you need to know in one block. Let's go. All right, let's start off this week with a little bit of Macro. The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut last week, its first of 2025, wasn't just about slowing economic growth. It was about politics, crash, credibility, Fed independence, and what comes next. The backdrop is something we've been covering extensively on the news block. Unemployment is rising, job growth was revised down sharply, and inflation is still stuck near 3%. So that's why Powell moved. But the real story was Stephen Myron's descent. Sworn in just a day before the meeting. Myron wanted a bigger 50 point cut and submitted a dot plot that clearly implies expectations of deeper easing in the months ahead. What's unusual is that Myron still holds a White House role, which obviously raises some concerns of conflicts of interest. Even more unusual, he declined to publish a written dissent, promising instead to explain his vote in a speech. And that's a break with Fed tradition highlighting the new political currents swirling around the central bank. Now. Other governors like Christopher Waller have flagged labor market weakness, but are moving more cautiously on rate cuts. Powell stressed that the cut was data driven. But if we zoom out internationally, the pushback is growing. Bundesbank President Joaquin Nagel warned last week that US Political interference is threatening Fed independence and global financial stability. The bond market seems to agree. Short term yields dropped on news of the rate cut, but long term yields climbed, which is a classic sign that investors fear inflation risk when central banks lose credibility. Markets are now pricing in two more rate cuts this year, likely in October and December. But that's not guaranteed. Upcoming jobs data and inflation prints will determine whether the Fed keeps easing. If inflation suddenly spikes, Powell may have to pause. But if the labor market deteriorates faster, pressure will mount for deeper cuts. The bottom line is the Fed is easing, but its independence is being tested like never before. And that combination, easier money plus weaker credibility historically fuels demand for hard assets like gold and Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin held steady after the Fed's rate cut, hovering around $115,000 last week. And analysts say the next big moves could depend on whether the economy weakens further and the Fed keeps. Now, bitcoin retreated a little further to start the week, but some models point to a climb toward 126,000. And research firms like Galaxy see the potential for bitcoin to hit 150,000 in the coming months if big institutions keep buying. Other big names like Tom Lee and Anthony Scaramucci are still calling for those kinds of prices to happen by the end of this year. Institutions really continue to provide a foundation spot. Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing inflows despite recent chop and and corporate treasury adoption is expanding. These steady flows suggest that large buyers view dips as opportunities, helping put a floor under price action. For now, investors are really laser focused on incoming labor and inflation data. A weaker jobs report would likely push the Fed toward more cuts, fueling more liquidity. But if inflation proves stubborn, policymakers may have to pause. Either way, bitcoin is consolidating on strong footing with the potential for a breakout as macro conditions evolve. I sat down with Michael Saylor last week and asked him why the general sentiment in bitcoin feels more bearish lately and why his conviction remains strong that Bitcoin will continue to outperform every other asset class. Make sure to check out that interview. The news block is powered exclusively by ledn. Need cash but don't want to sell your Bitcoin? LEDN is the global leader in bitcoin backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With leden, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments and more. Visit LED in IO all right, let's turn for a moment to the housing market. Fresh numbers show America's housing market is under increasing strain. Even with the Fed starting to cut interest rates in August, homebuilding slowed sharply, new Single family construction dropped 7% and builders pulled fewer permits for future projects. Confidence among homebuilders remains low, with many saying that high costs and a lack of affordable buyers are keeping demand weak. Mortgage rates have inched down, but not by much. The average 30 year mortgage is now about 6.3%, the lowest in almost a year, yet still more than double what many homeowners locked in before 2022. Some refinancing is picking up for wealthier households, but for first time buyers, monthly payments on a median priced home, which is now well over 400,000 nationwide, remain out of reach for anyone making less than six figures. It's also important to remember what's happened behind the scenes. We recently reported that the FHA has quietly modified or reduced payments on roughly 1.2 million mortgages, which is about 15% of its entire portfolio. That's one reason Delinquencies and foreclosures haven't spiked, but it also shows how fragile the market really is. If the FHA is already stepping in to keep people afloat, the cracks are deeper than the headlines suggest. And the housing squeeze looks different across the country. In some cities, prices jumped nearly 40% during the pandemic. And even after some cooling, the median home still costs around $450,000. Some builders are throwing in incentives like free upgrades or mortgage buy downs. But starter homes are still too expensive for many families. And in coastal cities like New York and San Francisco, sky high prices barely budged, leaving affordability at record lows. This is feeding America's wealth gap. Homeowners are sitting on record equity, while renters and young people find the dream of homeownership slipping away. Many existing owners are also locked into ultra low mortgage rates from a few years ago, so they're not going to sell. Keeping supply tight and prices elevated, that dynamic widens the divide between those who already own homes and those trying to buy their first. One of the most telling tweets I saw all week was shared by real estate analyst Amy Nixon, who shared an excerpt from a recent survey by Clever Real Estate. And it said almost three quarters of boomers, 73%, say they value stability in their community over affordability for younger generations to move in. Meanwhile, 59% of boomer homeowners would vote for a political candidate who prioritizes protecting home values, even if it meant fewer people could afford homes. All right, thanks, boomers. So boomers hold roughly half of all US Household wealth, much of it tied up in real estate, while millennials and Gen Z together own less than 10%. So that imbalance helps explain why homeownership has become the backbone of boomer wealth. While younger generations feel completely locked out and young people are increasingly wrapp rallying behind political forces that promise to lower housing costs for them, it's really no surprise. But here's where I think bitcoin offers a different kind of hope. While homes keep getting more expensive in dollar terms, they're actually getting cheaper in bitcoin over time. In 2012, the median US home cost more than 800 Bitcoin. Today, it costs fewer than 4 Bitcoin. Unlike real estate, bitcoin is divisible. You can buy fractions down to the satoshi, making it accessible in a way a house will never be. And for younger generations that have been shut out of traditional wealth building through homeownership, bitcoin really represents an open, global and scarce asset that can't be inflated away, and one that could actually help bridge the generational wealth gap as today's real estate bubble strains under its own weight. If affordability keeps deteriorating, it threatens not just families, but the broader economy. And with the Fed now easing rates, it's clear policymakers see the fragility too. Our leaders are clinging to the old system of propping up asset values, but a new monetary standard like bitcoin will finally give younger generations a fair shot at building wealth. All right, finally this week, some big news from Strive Asset Management and Semler Scientific. Strive and Semler announced a definitive agreement to merge in an all stock deal that values semler at a 210% premium. As part of the transaction, Strive also disclosed the purchase of 5,816 bitcoin at an average price of about 116,000, bringing the combined company's holdings to more than 10,900 bitcoin. Together, Strive and Semler gained the scale to become one of the largest corporate bitcoin holders, operating with a preferred equity model that avoids the risks of leverage. This merger creates one of the fastest growing corporate bitcoin platforms in the world, built to steadily grow bitcoin per share and cement its place as a leader in corporate bitcoin adoption. Looking ahead, this merger signals that corporate balance sheets are entering a new era defined by Bitcoin reserves. I'm honored to have been a part of this journey, being on Semler board this year and look forward to many more exciting announcements in the future, all in the mission of Bitcoin for All. That wraps up this week's news block. I also want to mention quickly that my book Bitcoin Is for Everyone is coming out this November, published by Herriman House and it is currently available for pre order on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other retailers. Make sure to pre order your copy and subscribe to the show for more updates on the book, the upcoming events for it, and much more. Until next time, that's it for the News block. Your weekly Bitcoin and economic news update. Powered exclusively by ledn. I'm Natalie Brunel. Make sure you're subscribed to Coinstory so you never miss an episode. This show is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.