← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
News Block: Bitcoin Slides Under $65K, $130B in Tariffs Struck Down, Ledn's Historic Bitcoin Bond Deal
00:10:06
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Welcome to the Coin Stories news block, powered exclusively by LEDN. I'm Natalie Brunel, and in about 10 minutes or less, I'll provide you with insightful updates on Bitcoin, financial markets and the global economy. Everything you need to know in one block.
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Let's go. Bitcoin continues to feel pain as the price slides under $65,000 again. And this week, markets and policymakers are scrambling to make sense of a big macro shift. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that most of President Trump's tariffs are illegal. The case challenged Trump's use of the IEEPA as authority to impose sweeping tariffs on virtually every country in the world. Now, for context, the IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President emergency power over international economic transactions. It was designed for sanctions and freezing foreign assets. That, not tariffs. The Supreme Court ruled that taxing imports is Congress's job. In his dissent, Chief Justice Roberts didn't mince words, writing that the act contains no reference to tariffs or duties. But here's the thing. By the time that ruling landed, IEEPA tariffs had already collected more than $130 billion from importers. And now the question is, does the government owe all of that money back? The answer is nobody knows. The court left the refund question completely unanswered, kicking that question to lower courts instead. And nobody knows when they will issue a ruling. But Justice Kavanaugh warned that the process is likely to be, quote, a mess. President Trump was furious. He called out the two justices he personally appointed, Gorsuch and Barrett by name on Truth Social, saying that he was absolutely ashamed of them. And within hours of the ruling, he signed a brand new 10% global tariff that then the very next morning, he bumped it to 15%. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant moved quickly to reassure markets, saying tariff revenue will be virtually unchanged in 2026. But on refunds, Besant was blunt, calling any potential payouts the ultimate corporate welfare. His argument is if importers pass those tariff costs on to consumers as higher prices, then the importers never actually absorbed the loss. And refunding them now would. Would just fatten corporate margins. Americans paid higher prices on the way in. They won't see a dime on the way out. Now, zooming out a little bit more, you've probably heard the debate about whether tariffs are inflationary or deflationary. Some economists argue that they are deflationary because higher prices slow demand, so the economy cools and inflation comes down. But here's why I think that misses the point. Tariffs add friction to global trade. When goods move freely across borders, they get produced where it's most efficient, and that efficiency shows up as lower prices and more choices for consumers. Tariffs interrupt that flow, raising import costs, constraining supply, forcing substitution with more expensive alternatives, less supply, higher costs. That's inflationary at the most basic level. But what really compounds it is the unpredictability. When businesses don't know what tariff rate they'll face next week, they can't plan. They start holding extra inventory as insurance and diversify supply chains at the expense of efficiency. All of that cost is eventually passed on to consumers through higher prices. So all in all, this ruling may have hindered the Trump administration's trade policy goals. But the tariff era isn't over. It just got messier, slower, and harder to predict. And in an economy that depends on certainty, that's a problem that doesn't show up in headlines. It shows up eventually in prices. Need cash but don't want to sell your Bitcoin? Leden is the global leader in Bitcoin backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Leden, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Visit Leden IO Natalie to learn more and get a quarter percentage point off your first loan. All right, let's pivot to some macro data, because the numbers from the past several weeks tell a pretty uncomfortable story. Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4% annualized growth, sharply down from the 4.4% the prior quarter and well below the 3% economists expected. Some of that is attributable to the government shutdown, which analysts estimate dragged growth down by a full percentage point. Okay, so there are one time factors at play here. But even with that excuse, growth is clearly cooling, and that's the opposite of what this administration wants. Meanwhile, inflation is still not cooperating, despite what truflation says. The Fed's preferred gauge, which is core PCE, climbed back to 3% year over year in December, while prices rose 0.4% on the month, the largest monthly increase since last February, slowing growth and rising prices at the same time. That is a setup for stagflation, AKA the Fed's worst nightmare. In that environment, they can't cut rates to juice the economy without risking more inflation. So they're basically stuck. And then came news from the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, which dropped its latest 10 year fiscal projections, and they are grim. The deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion this year and 3.1 trillion by 2036. With debt to GDP surpassing the all time record set right after World War II, nothing stops this train now. What's really sobering is the interest expense. We're already paying $1 trillion a year just to service existing debt, but by 2036 the CBO expects that to more than double. Remember, not a single dollar of that builds infrastructure, funds defense or pays for education. It just services debt that we've already run up. This is what the doom loop looks like. Higher debt leads to higher interest costs, which in turn lead to larger deficits, which in turn lead to even more debt. And round and around we go. So here's where we bring this back to Bitcoin, because this backdrop is exactly why we're actually still seeing some serious money flow into the asset despite the recent drawdown. Abu Dhabi's Mubadala sovereign wealth fund increased its position in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by 4.46percent in Q4, buying aggressively, while Bitcoin fell over 23% during that same period. A spokesperson told Bloomberg the fund is building its allocation as part of a long term diversification strategy, describing Bitcoin as a store of value similar to gold. And then there's Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who spent years calling Bitcoin pure speculation with no real use case. And this week he admitted he hasn't been a great bitcoin prognosticator and that he now personally owns some when the head of Goldman Sachs walks back his skepticism, you pay attention. All right, to wrap up this week's news block, let's talk about a genuine first in Bitcoin's history, courtesy of our sponsor LEDN. The Bitcoin lending platform closed a $188 million asset backed securities deal, the first ever investment grade rated Bitcoin backed. ABS in the history of digital ass S&P assigned the senior notes a triple B minus rating and the offering was more than twice oversubscribed, signaling strong investor demand. So what is an ABS deal and why does it matter? Think of it like a mortgage backed security, but instead of home loans, it's backed by a pool of bitcoin collateralized loans. Leden bundles those loans together and sells them to institutional investors who receive the loan payments as income and earn around 6.8% on the senior tranche. The reason this is a big deal for leadn is funding. Before this, Bitcoin lenders raised capital from crypto native sources which were expensive, limited and correlated to market conditions this deal plugs lead in directly into traditional fixed income pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers, a far deeper and more stable pool that doesn't dry up when Bitcoin sells off. For buyers, the appeal is a competitive yield pen backed by pristine collateral. When a loan goes underwater, Leden's system automatically liquidates the Bitcoin collateral before losses occur. No foreclosure process, no legal delays. Algorithmic, instant transparent. The deal is also significant because now that S and P has formally evaluated Bitcoin credit, scrutinizing Leden's underwriting, risk management and track record, it creates a template the entire industry can follow. All right, finally, I sat down with Michael Saylor for a nearly two hour talk where no question was off limits. We talked about the price action, whether Bitcoin's price was being suppressed, the quantum fud, even Bitcoin's mention in the Epstein files. I highly recommend everyone listen to it. He never disappoints. I'm in Las Vegas this week for Strategy World. So if you're going to be here, come say hello. This week. There's already so much going on with the markets, but underneath it all is the same through line. The world is figuring out bitcoin. It's institutions are still arriving, the infrastructure is being built, and deals like the one mentioned from Leden are exactly how it happens. One brick at a time. Remember, bear markets are for building.
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That's it for the news block. Your weekly Bitcoin and economic news update.
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Powered exclusively by ledn.
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I'm Natalie Brunel.
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Make sure you're subscribed to Coinstory so
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you never miss an episode. This show is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.