← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
News Block: "Up-tober" for Bitcoin? U.S. Shutdown Looms, Tether's $500B Bid, and U.K. Digital ID Risks
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In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Bitcoin's Recent Price Volatility Explained - Is Another "Uptober" Ahead?...
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Welcome to the Coinstories News block, powered exclusively by LEDN. I'm Natalie Brunel and in about 10 minutes or less I'll provide you with insightful updates on bitcoin, financial markets and the global economy. Everything you need to know in one block. Let's go Is Bitcoin about to have another so called uptober? The price has been bouncing around quite a bit, so let's dive in and explore what's happening. A recent tweet From Pro Cap BTC's Jeff park said, stuck with me. He highlighted that Bitcoin's 90 day realized volatility, which is a backward looking measure of how much price has actually moved over the past three months, has dropped to lows we haven't seen since 2016. That means over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has been even less volatile than many individuals and P500 stocks. And that decline in volatility is exactly what you'd expect from a maturing asset. As bitcoin grows larger in size, the same amount of money moving in or out has a smaller effect on price. But lower volatility isn't just a sign of bitcoin growing up. It could also be a sign of market compression, prices coiling in a tight range. And when markets compress, big moves tend to follow. With bitcoin's fixed supply and global demand, those bursts have often leaned to the upside, park added. Quote Everyone remembers 2017 a nod to what followed the low volatility period in 2016. Now, for newer folks, 2017 was a rocket ship. Big Bitcoin ran from roughly $1,000 to nearly 20,000 in a single year, 20x in a year. And the point is simple. When realized volatility compresses to extremes, bitcoin can behave like a coiled spring. Now, we can't predict the exact direction right because moves can cut both ways. But low volatility periods are a setup, and they often precede big moves. Now we got a taste of volatility returning. Over the past few weeks, bitcoin briefly broke below $109,000 before rebounding over the weekend with more than $3 billion of leveraged longs flushed across exchanges in a large deleveraging event. According to Coin Glass, one catalyst on Traders minds the risk of a government shutdown. Congress is once again staring down a funding deadline. If they cannot agree to a funding plan by October 1, then federal services will grind to a halt and thousands of workers will stop receiving paychecks. So what's the holdup? The fight is Less about keeping the lights on and more about health care. Republicans want a clean short term funding bill while Democrats wanted to also lock in health care protections like enhanced Affordable Care act subsidies. Republicans believe health care should be handled separately and both sides have basically dug their heels in now. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that if Democrats get their way, the package would add about $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years. I want to read parts of CRFB President Maya McGuinness statement because it resonated with me. She wrote, quote, borrowing another $1.5 trillion should be a complete non starter. Lawmakers should be focused on keeping the government open, not driving it deeper into debt. The national debt is already approaching record levels as a share of the economy and we're on course to spend $1 trillion this year just on interest. We need to be focused on reducing deficits, not exploding them. It's time to stop the excessive borrowing. Instead of fighting debt with more debt, lawmakers should be using the budget process to reduce deficits. And I couldn't agree more with Maya. We have politicians constantly arguing over what to spend money on instead of talking about how to reduce spending altogether. They simply cannot get their fiscal house in order. And regardless of the near term market reaction, the real loser in any government shutdown drama is public trust. Voters see shutdowns as the result of gross incompetence and confidence continues to erode. When the national election study began in 1958, 73% of Americans said they trusted the federal government always or most of the time. Today it's about 22%. Repeated fiscal irresponsibility is exactly why Bitcoin exists as a credibly neutral, rules based monetary asset outside the incentives that keep institutions spending. I recently sat down with investment strategist Lynn Alden where we discuss some of these topics and more. So make sure to check it out to get up to speed on all the major macro forces at play. Today, the news block is powered exclusively by ledn. Need cash, but don't want to sell your Bitcoin? LEDN is the global leader in Bitcoin backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With ledn, you get custody loans, new no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Visit Leden IO. All right, one thing we know happens when governments become so heavily indebted and start losing the public's trust is that they pull every lever to try to keep the boat from sinking. We're already seeing this in the relentless pressure on the Fed to cut rates and make government borrowing cheaper. This past week, President Trump even posted a truth social image of himself firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Cutting the cost of debt is one lever they have. Finding or manufacturing new demand for that debt is another. If there's more steady buying of Treasuries, the government can issue more without sending interest rates spiking as supply floods the market. We've seen this a few ways with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's focus on adjusting bank capital requirements so that banks can hold more Treasuries, and with the government's embrace of stablecoins. Bessen has repeatedly said stablecoins could add trillions of dollars of incremental demand for Treasuries. And that's a big reason we've seen this administration openly support stablecoins. Most notably with the Genius act becoming law a few months ago, you can see the knock on effects. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, is making moves of its own. It's been promoting a new compliant dollar, stablecoin usat, touting it as the people's dollar with no remittance fees, no middlemen, and instant settlement. Now remember, stablecoins are IOUs from companies. You need to trust that Tether Circle, or whoever issues the token, manages reserves and maintains the dollar peg. Tether is centralized for profit and business has been very good. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Tether is in talks to raise as much as $20 billion at around a $500 billion valuation. If successful, it would place Tether among the world's most valuable private companies and make its chairman, Giancarlo Devasini, the fifth richest man in the world. And Tether is bound to continue growing from here, now that Washington sees stablecoins as strategically important buyers of its debt to to help fund deficits. But will that demand be enough? Run the math and stablecoins help at the margin, but they're nowhere near the demand needed to fund persistent multi trillion dollar deficits. This is something I also talked about with Flynn last week. That's why we may start to see governments lean harder on a third lever. Common and highly debted regimes yield curve control and even censorship. We're already seeing versions of censorship abroad. Reports from the UK say that the government plans to move toward mandatory digital identification for citizens and permanent to access work, which is part of a broader push for tighter identity regulations. And that's concerning for anyone who's an advocate of digital privacy and has watched how CBDCs, digital IDs and social credit scores can concentrate powers in places where they've been piloted. Jordan Peterson didn't mince words about the threat of these IDs. I think it would bring in and has already in China. I think it'll bring in a totalitarian tyranny so 100% complete that it would make George Orwell's 1984 look like a picnic. So this is a pretty alarming development. Journalist Michael Shellenberger recently published an article called Total Surveillance, Censorship and Behavior Control are the Real Goals of Digital ID Advocates, which lays out the incentives and funding behind these efforts. I highly recommend giving it a read. It is very eye opening and this is why Bitcoin's design matters. Digital fiat tokens are permissioned and centralized. Bitcoin is decentralized, permissionless and censorship resistant. If governments ratchet up capital controls to manage their debt, those trades will only stand out more in the short run. Policymakers can pressure the Fed, tweak rules, and recruit new buyers of Treasuries, but but that's all just kicking the can down the road. In the long run, the consequences of politicized money become clear all roads lead to Bitcoin all right, here are a few quick news stories that caught my eye to end this news block. First, Crypto in America reported that an anonymous source has revealed that Vanguard is preparing to allow access to crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform. Now this is a big deal not just because of Vanguard size, but also because just 18 months ago they publicly took a stance against Bitcoin. The now former CEO Tim Buckley said, we don't believe the Bitcoin ETF belongs in a long term portfolio of someone saving for their retirement. So clearly a lot can change in 18 months, including Bitcoin's 60% increase and Ibit Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF soaring to 88 billion in AUM. It just goes to show that some people learn about Bitcoin the easy way and some learn the hard way. As the saying goes, everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. Overall, this is a great development for bitcoin adoption and for Vanguard clients. Next up, we learned about a new bitcoin treasury company about to hit the market. Orange BTC announced it will be listed on the Brazilian B3 exchange in early October and it holds 3650 BTC, or about $410 million worth. That makes Orange BTC the largest bitcoin treasury company in Brazil and in Latin America. Upon launch, Orange is set to become the 25th largest corporate holder of bitcoin globally. Alongside the treasury strategy, it plans to launch a bitcoin education platform. Michael Saylor recently talked about a monster treasury company in every major capital market, and, well, Latin America may have just found theirs. Lastly, former VP Kamala Harris was in my timeline this week because her new book, 107 Days, is critical. President Trump's pardons, including Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, whom she called a fentanyl dealer. Ross tweeted at the former vice president saying, quote, I wasn't prosecuted for dealing drugs and fentanyl wasn't part of my charges. The truth has never mattered to you. The goal is to just make me and President Trump look bad at all costs, isn't it? Now, why does that story matter here? Well, to me, it shows how people and policy set the environment for Bitcoin, including access and public perception. A different election outcome likely means a very different landscape. No pardon for Ross, less regulatory clarity, and no strategic Bitcoin discussion, among many other things. Objectively, Bitcoin's adoption in the US is far stronger than 12 months ago. Regardless of your politics, the direction we're moving is clear. We're getting more regulatory clarity, broader access, and growing institutional adoption. And it highlights how important bitcoin lobbying efforts can be. So. So remember, if you want to contribute, call your elected representatives and tell them why Bitcoin is important to you. You never know. Your call could be what begins to orange pill them and lead to Bitcoin's next great advocate in Washington. That's it for the news block, your weekly Bitcoin and economic news update. Powered exclusively by ledn. I'm Natalie Brunel. Make sure you're subscribed to Coinstory so you never miss an episode. This show is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.