← Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
News Block: Weak Jobs Report Fuels Rate Cut Outlook, Gold Price at Record High, Strategy Snubbed by S&P 500, Dalio: Bitcoin Boosted by Debt
00:12:35
In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Poor Jobs Data Cements Case for Rate Cuts DOJ Launches Criminal Investigation...
Loading summary
Transcript1 lines
- [00:02]
A
Welcome to the Coinstories news block, powered exclusively by LEDN. I'm Natalie Brunel, and in about 10 minutes or less, I'll provide you with insightful updates on Bitcoin, financial markets and the global economy. Everything you need to know in one block. Let's go. Macro is back in the spotlight as the latest employment numbers disappoint. To the downside, the unemployment rate just rose to its highest level since 2021. And and for the first time since that same year, there are now more unemployed people than job openings. On top of that, payrolls fell well short of expectations. Only 22,000 jobs were created versus 75,000 expected. Another clear sign of labor market weakness. But meanwhile, stocks are hovering near all time highs and nominal GDP is running around 3%. So there are a lot of contradictions across the board. If you're not feeling great about this economy, you're not alone. The Wall Street Journal highlighted a new poll asking do you believe the American dream? That if you work hard, you'll get ahead? Holds true. Today, nearly 70% said it no longer holds or never did. That's the most pessimistic reading in nearly 15 years of surveys. Together, these data points and sentiment readings have many expecting the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in a couple weeks. And it's not just the macro backdrop pushing odds toward rate cuts. The Fed itself has been in the headlines. We've been covering this story on the News block. Fed Governor Dr. Lisa Cook facing allegations of mortgage fraud. Last week, things escalated when the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation and issued subpoenas probing whether she submitted fraudulent information on mortgage applications. Now, just to recap, Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has accused Cook of misleading banks on multiple applications to obtain favorable terms. Terms such as lower interest rates given to owner occupants rather than investors. Videos have been going viral on X of people knocking on the doors of Dr. Cook's properties, where it turns out renters live, not the Fed Governor. Because of these allegations, President Trump fired Cook for cause, a power that the Federal Reserve act provides. But Cook denies all of it and filed a lawsuit last month arguing the firing was unlawful and that the White House concocted a basis to vacate her seat and forward its agenda to undermine the independence of the Federal reserve. Okay, so two things can be true at once here. Dr. Cook may have indeed committed mortgage fraud, which is 100% a viable offense for an individual who has such influence over the monetary policy of the world's reserve currency. But it could also be true that the real motivation behind her firing is political. With multi trillion dollar deficits to finance. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant have been clear about what they want rate cuts. And they want them yesterday. With Cook and out, the president can appoint another governor aligned with his agenda, someone who will vote for rate cuts in future Fed meetings. As the late Charlie Munger used to say, show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome. All of this points to a higher likelihood of rate cuts, which all else equal, typically means higher asset prices and higher inflation. It's no surprise then that gold has been on a tear as these developments unfolded last week, gold split spike to a new all time high, eclipsing 3, 600 for the first time ever. Chief market strategist Charlie Bolello notes gold is on pace for its best year since 1979, up more than 35% in 2025 alone. When gold starts moving like a tech stock, it's worth asking why. And here's the short answer. The market is doing the math when it comes to the $37 trillion debt mountain, and it doesn't like what it's finding. Concerns about what the fiscal outlook means for the value of the currency are among the reasons why gold is having such a strong year and why bitcoin deserves close attention too. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio told the Financial Times he sees the heavy debt load of a reserve currency government threatening the appeal of sovereign debt as a store of value and helping drive up the price of gold. And Bitcoin, he added, quote, crypto is now an alternative currency that has its supply limited. So all things being equal, if the supply of dollar money rises and or the demand it falls, that would likely make crypto an attractive alternative currency. I think that most fiat currencies, especially those with large debts, will have problems being effective store holds of wealth and will go down in value relative to hard currencies. And the market seems to be resonating with Dalio's message. If all roads lead to currency debasement, it's prudent to hold money that can't be debased and has preserved value over time. Bitcoin is up nearly 20% this year, but has underperformed gold so far. X accounts like Macroscope have highlighted the pattern over the last couple of years. Gold often moves first, then bitcoin catches up, and then it tends to significantly outperform. Are we about to see a replay in the second half of this year? Americans today aren't optimistic about their financial futures and A big reason why, whether they realize it or not, is that the currency they earn and save in has been significantly debased since 2020. It's why the stock market can be near all time highs and the economy can be in relatively good shape. Yet most Americans still feel pessimist. Today, the sound money sirens are blaring the price action of gold and Bitcoin is flashing the risk of more debasement ahead. And when markets are talking like this, investors would be wise to listen. The news block is powered exclusively by ledn. Need cash, but don't want to sell your Bitcoin? LEDN is the global leader in Bitcoin backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks and no monthly payments and more. To learn more, visit Leden IO Natalie My followers get a quarter percent off their first loan all right, the market is waking up to two realities. First, that the path of least resistance for governments is to debase their currencies, and second, that protecting wealth means owning scarce assets like bitcoin. So the bitcoin industry's mission should be simple. Make getting bitcoin exposure as easy as possible for all investors. Investor access has improved a lot in the last two years. The spot Bitcoin ETFs, the rise of bitcoin, treasury companies and regulators that are starting to work with, not against the space. Things are much better than they were before, but there's still plenty of work to do. Even today, many banks and large financial institutions still block clients and even their own employees from getting bitcoin exposure. But that's starting to change. This past week, U.S. bank, with roughly $686 billion in assets, announced it's resuming cryptocurrency custody by partnering with NYDIG. The bank first launched the service in 2021, then suspended it when the regulatory climate turned hostile toward institutions offering bitcoin products. Now they feel comfortable switching it back on, which shows how a more supportive regulatory environment is driving bitcoin adoption. Regulators are also finally on the same page about digital assets. This week, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint statement making it clear spot crypto trading products can move forward in the U.S. in short, the agency said nothing in current law stops registered exchanges from offering certain spot crypto assets. They're effectively telling exchanges and clearinghouses to come in, file the paperwork and launch. They also sketch out the plumbing so market participants know how to build. And that ties back to the President's Working Group push to keep innovation and liquidity onshore by providing clearer rules. So how does this help bitcoin adoption and access? Well, coordinated guidance shrinks the legal gray area, which lowers compliance and career risk for big institutions. And that can translate into more on ramps, deeper liquidity and lower costs for investors to obtain Bitcoin exposure. All right, switching gears to corporate Bitcoin adoption, It keeps accelerating, but this week brought a potential roadblock. First strategy was snubbed for S&P 500 inclusion. Despite meeting the criteria, this was the first time strategy was eligible. Yet the committee chose other equities, Robinhood, Applovin and Emcore instead. For many MSTR holders who were excited about the potential for billions in passive inflows that typically follow index inclusion, that was a gut punch and they'll have to wait. But it still feels like just a matter of time. What I've learned in recent days is how political the process actually is, Strive Asset Management's Matt Cole tweeted Quote did you know that S&P 500 committee members aren't publicly disclosed? Imagine investing in a quasi active fund where you have no idea who is making decisions and there's zero transparency into why a decision is made. The S&P 500 index is outdated. Indexes should be rules based. Michael Saylor also responded with a post quote thinking about the S and P right now alongside a chart of MSTR versus the S&P 500 since strategy adopted the Bitcoin standard and today the scoreboard reads MSTR +92% versus S&P 500 +14%. And that's the irony of this. The S&P 500 needs strategy more than strategy needs the S&P 500. Every investor in that index would benefit from meaningful Bitcoin exposure and strategy could provide it. Before Friday, only two Bitcoin linked stocks were effectively part of the index conversation. Coinbase and Jack Dorsey's block Robinhood will now be added, which increases exposure. But it's nothing like Strategy, an operating company that holds more than 3% of Bitcoin's total supply. So hopefully the committee brings strategy in soon, honestly, for the sake of S and P investors. And until then, the index will keep underperforming strategy, Bitcoin and any fund that's actually powered by Bitcoin's performance. Now the second potential roadblock that spooked the Bitcoin treasury company market was when the information reported that NASDAQ is increasing oversight of US Listed companies that are raising funds to accumulate cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. The report allegedly revealed that Nasdaq will start requiring shareholder votes for some fundraising deals and push for more investor disclosures. This could be problematic if these new rules require a Treasury company to obtain shareholder approval whenever it wants to raise money and buy Bitcoin. It would delay these capital activities and add costs. Multiple treasury company stocks declined on the news. However, in response to the report, Strategy tweeted quote, NASDAQ's new position on digital asset treasury formations doesn't affect strategy, our ATMs or our other capital markets activities. In addition, others like Van Buren Capital, Scott Johnson didn't see what the big fuss was about. He wrote that this will have, quote, zero impact on established vehicles and a minor speed bump if that. For new ones, disclosures are easy and shareholder votes are just good corporate governance anyway. Now we still don't know the details about what Nasdaq's new position is exactly, but it appears that the worry may have been overblown. We'll be keeping an eye out for more information as things come to light, and this news will certainly not stop the momentum behind treasury companies launching around the globe. This past week we had a new entrant emerge on the scene, and this time out of Amsterdam. On Wednesday, Treasury BV announced that it raised 126 million euro in a private funding round led by Winklevoss Capital and Nakamoto as part of a plan to become Europe's largest corporate bitcoin holder. The company intends to list on Euronext Amsterdam and and will also acquire the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference to bolster outreach. Its strategic advisory board includes Gemini co founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, of course, as well as Nakamoto's David Bailey. Meanwhile, river recently published a report on business bitcoin adoption in 2025 that concluded that as a group, Bitcoin treasury companies are the second largest buyers of Bitcoin in 2025, right behind funds and ETFs acquiring roughly 1400 Bitcoin per day. Bitcoin treasury companies continue to launch around the world despite the recent pullback in stock prices, and existing treasury companies continue to buy more bitcoin. I highly recommend checking out that report from river, as well as my recent interview with ProCap BTC's Jeff park, where we discussed this topic among many more. Each week that passes is just more evidence that we have entered a new era in bitcoin's adoption. That's it for the News block. Your weekly Bitcoin and Economic news update powered exclusively by ledn. Hi, I'm Natalie Brunel. Make sure you're subscribed to Coinstory so you never miss an episode. This show is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.