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Larry Lippard
I think we'll see probably 140 at the end of December. And I think next year we'll go into the 200, 250 range, and that'll probably be the peak of the cycle.
Preston Pysh
I think so much of this really depends on the five people sitting in the room clacking on the keys, inserting the liquidity into the system. Yeah, you know, if they put an extra zero on the end and hit enter, like, yeah, you could be at 150 plus.
Natalie
Hey, everyone, we have a big show in store for you this week. I have Larry Lippard, author of the Big Print, and Preston Pysh, general partner at Ego Death Capital. Thank you so much for joining me, guys. It's been a while. So how are you both doing?
Larry Lippard
Great. Great to be with you. Thanks for inviting me.
Preston Pysh
Doing fantastic. Excited to be here with Larry and yourself, Nat.
Natalie
So what happened to uptober? It seems like choptober instead. I mean, what's going on here?
Preston Pysh
No, I mean, yeah, I think you in general, you just have a lot of impairment kind of happening in the markets. There's a lot of illiquidity happening. You have the reverse repo that's completely gone, which is this, you know, the liquidity shock absorber. You have the reserves for the banks down below 3 trillion, which is kind of, you know, less than the 10% threshold above as you compare it to the GDP. And like all these factors that are really your metrics for illiquidity. And as we've learned as bitcoiners, the thing that drives number go up at its core is the liquidity in the system. And so you're kind of at the end of this, whatever this cycle timeframe is that we're on since COVID and they announced that they're going to do a 25 bips cut with the Fed. And it seems like the market's suggesting that wasn't enough. I'm curious if Larry would agree with that.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, I think that's what the market's telling you. Well, the. The interesting thing was he tried to be tough guy about December. And so, you know, he gave us the candy for this month. Although he, you know, he's. And he talked about stopping the Q2 runoff, which is a. It's a small number, but it's a big deal. It's in the direction that would imply that they. They're worried about the tightness and liquidity in the banking system, as Preston alluded to, which is why I think the bitcoin price is so weak. But most importantly, the shocker was he said it was a very tough call on December and there was a lot of dissent. And I think up until that point in time, the consensus had been, oh, yeah, we're guaranteed a cut now, and we're guaranteed a cut in December. And what you saw is that he said no. And the December odds have now gone down to 72% for a cut and 28% for no cut. So, you know, people are getting a little worried that maybe the goodies aren't going to keep coming. And I think the market, market doesn't like that. And so the market's off today.
Preston Pysh
And Natalie, I would just add, like, you know, why does October exist?
Larry Lippard
Right?
Preston Pysh
A lot of people don't even talk about, like, why does October or October exist? And it's because you got the federal government here in the US and their calendar year ends in the last day of September. And so there's risk. And this is Preston Pisch's opinion. Other people might have an opinion, say that this is just a bunch of noise and all in people's heads. But I would suggest that that uncertainty as to what's going to happen at the end of September, going into the start of the new year, as far as federal liquidity kind of getting pumped into the system starting in October is the reason why you kind of see this is the market understands that they got a continuing resolution or whatever that might be, and just to kind of sprinkle a little bit more risk on top of the illiquidity issues that we've seen. You have a government, we're in a government shutdown. And for all intents and purposes, it seems like they're not going to come to some, you know, the rumblings that I'm hearing and the rumors are pretty pointless and worthless, but I'm hearing clear out till, you know, Thanksgiving, this thing could continue to be in this quasi, like, who knows what the heck's going to happen mode. So I think that just kind of adds to a little bit of the confusion. You didn't get the really clean break into the new fiscal calendar from the federal government. And so that's just another factor.
Natalie
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Preston Pysh
I would just say so Sven, in his, in the tweet that you're referencing, he showed the market caps of companies like Nvidia, which, by the way, just hit $5 trillion in market cap. Okay, these numbers are crazy. And so he says, wow, it was like, it was one hell of a. Of a cycle. And we're, we're now seeing the impairment and like, it's starting to cast the cascading impairment. And we're getting ready to go through yet the next, like, you know, liquidity bump. Probably in the, in the next quarter or two, they're going to have to step in and really start to. To ease a lot more. I don't know if that's the timeline. I suspect it's going to be within the next two quarters. They're going to have to step in and start really adding liquidity into the system. And so his point is just like, look at the size of these companies as we're going through the tightening phase of this cycle. We're in, and you're going to laugh. I was trying to explain this to Demi because we had CNBC kind of playing in the background when we were having breakfast one morning, and I said, $5 trillion for Nvidia. This is so insane. And she just kind of looked at me like, yeah, that number, it might as well be a goog Googleplex. It doesn't even comprehend, right? And I told her, I was like, I held up my iPhone, I said, just think about anywhere you go in the world, how many people are like, carrying these things around, right? And you think about, like, what the top line of Apple is of making putting these devices into every single person's hand. All over the world, Everybody's got a MacBook, you know, and they pull out their laptop, and you think about the size and the scope of every person on the planet having that. And I'm there telling her about Nvidia, and she goes, well, what's Nvidia do? I was like, well, they're making all these chips for all this AI stuff. And when I said, just think, like, this 5 trillion number is so much bigger than Apple as far as, like, them selling all of these devices. And it's a company that, for all intents and purposes, most people don't even have a clue what they do. They don't even know what in the world Nvidia does. And yet they're. They're. They're at $5 trillion. And so these numbers are getting so big. I mean, just here's another. Here's another kind of framing for this. And sorry to go on and on. When you look at the U.S. defense Department. Okay. I go down the fort hood when I was back in the army, and you could drive, I think it was like seven or eight miles at Fort Hood. And it's nothing but tanks for seven or eight miles. Okay, just. And I mean, I'm not. You're not talking like a single row of tanks. You're talking like rows and rows of tanks for literally seven or eight miles straight. They call the road Hell on wheels. And this is just like one base. And there's like, bases all over the world and there's. And we're not even talking the expensive stuff like F22 fighters and all that. Okay. So, like, the cost to run all of that on an annualized, all the fuel, all the logistics, just like, really kind of put yourself in the mindset of thinking through the cost of all that. It's about a trillion. Okay. So now when you slap this 5 trillion number on Nvidia, it really starts to make sense of, like, how insane this is.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, yeah. I didn't see the tweet, but the other thing that I thought was very meaningful and important was Powell admitted. They said, well, look, if. If you're stopping the runoff and GDP continues to grow, that would imply that monetary conditions are going to continue to get tighter and you're going to have. Reserves as a percentage of GDP are going to dip down to those levels that caused the repo crisis, which was 7%. We're now at 10. He did something that I thought was very unusual. And he said, well, yes, that's correct. And in fact, reserves will have to grow. He basically said. He confessed that the balance sheet shrinkage is done and QE is coming. And he said it. He didn't say the size. He didn't say when. You know, he didn't put a number on it, but you could. I mean. And I was like, wow, that's just a complete admission of failure. I mean, you recall Bernanke telling Ron Paul, yeah, the balance sheet's a trillion five, but we're going to bring it back down. And of course, that never worked. And the fact is they just can't. They have to. They have to continue to grow credit, grow the balance sheet, and the numbers are going to get large. And I think when the next big print comes, you know, the balance sheet's going to go from today 6.5 to, I don't know, 10, 12, 15, 20. I mean, it's going to be a big number. Right. While we're talking about big numbers, Preston. Right. Yeah. Yeah, I Agree with you.
Natalie
Yeah, but there are some bitcoiners out there saying that QE is not coming or maybe that they won't call it qe. I think maybe even Joe, Carlos Arley was one of the people that's saying that. What do you say to analysts out there that are claiming that this we're not going to see qe?
Larry Lippard
Well, they can rebrand it. I mean, they can call it something different. But if they do not grow the underlying base money and the credit within the system, the system will seize up and fail the way it did in 2019 when he did his last pivot. So, you know, fine, call it something different. I mean, you know, I mean, just like Silicon Valley bank, when they bailed that out, they created a new thing called btfp. You know, whatever. You know, buy the effing paper. You know, there'll be some new name for whatever this thing is. In fact, I've often heard, I heard from a guy in D.C. who's pretty well connected and I think kind of has beers with some of the Fed people, that there was kind of an internal document going around where they were talking about some kind of a commercial real estate facility where they might be willing to go to, you know, the region. I mean, the regional banks right now have been hiding all these CRE losses. Yeah, a lot of the CRE losses are also in insurance companies, which is why our insurance rates are going up and everything. But, but people who've loaned against buildings, you know, the zoom world comes around, you don't need as much office space. There are a lot. I mean, you see the guy, triple net investor on Twitter is great. He shows these buildings are selling for 15 cents on the dollar. Right. Well, somebody had a note against that. And that note is not money. Good. It went to money heaven. And so the banks are starting to show up with problems. I mean, and we just saw that recently with the subprime auto stuff. And so, you know, maybe it's a, you know, it's the term lending, you know, or the CRE Term lending agreement. Right. And you know, we agree that you're a regional bank and you've got a bad, you know, you got a bad note against a piece of property, fine, put it to us. We'll buy it at par. And. And we'll give you the cash. And is that qe? Not in a technical sense, not in a creating bank reserve sense, but it's putting money into the system that's gone to money heaven already. So. So it's there. So. So I Think, you know what, what Joe may be technically correct. I think the, the general breadth and, and scope will figure out some way to get the money into the system. That's my, my belief. I don't know. Preston, do you see it differently?
Preston Pysh
Yeah, I totally agree with everything that Larry's saying here and what he's, what he's really getting at. So when you take the Silicon Valley bank crisis, this was because the banks were so upside down on all the, any, any type of duration debt that they had, it was way below the par value. And if it gets marked on their books, they become a liquid or they become bankrupt immediately because they have, you know, a negative equity balance on their balance sheet. So what happens when you, when you take that? And it's not just on paper, but it's actually these real things like commercial real estate. And the market, the free and open market is trying to list it, like Larry said, at 15 cents on the dollar. Well, that blows up a lot of people's books very quickly. So what, what do, what does the Fed have to do? They have to allow them to not market down 85% or 75% and allow them to list it at the par value, which is the same. It's, it's yield curve control for.
Larry Lippard
Real estate.
Preston Pysh
Right. And the problem that you really get into when you, when you say, okay, so like, what's the long, like what's the real impact into the economy when you start playing these games is you don't have a free and open market for the pricing of very big ticket items, which is, you know, buildings, like commercial sized buildings. And so like, what does, what are the implications of that? I think people can just naturally think about like what that means if you're selling like this hardcore like really large real estate and you not like actually marking it at the prices that the market is trying to market at. Well, you get really bad things kind of happening in the economy because you're just dealing with a, not, you're dealing with a socialist kind of environment in that setting. And it's not good, it's really bad. And this isn't just in the US this is literally any advanced G7 economy that are going to be playing these kind of games.
Natalie
Well, I want to pull on, on that thread because we're seeing really interesting things happen when it comes to the public and populism and crying out for political answers that are more socialist. But you know, if you really think about it, you can understand the resentment that has been created by a system that has rewarded the people at the top, as opposed to the people who feel like maybe they, they have been productive and done everything right and they're fought, they've fallen so far behind. There's this resentment towards the wealthy, and there's really a growing chasm and friction between labor and capital. And it's going to be exacerbated, I think, by the acceleration of artificial intelligence and robotics, which is going to put downward pressure on, you know, on the employment market. How do you see these forces kind of coexisting and, and not resulting in a total revolution?
Preston Pysh
I just want to help frame some of this because one of the biggest confusions that I see when I talk to people about any of this stuff is truly the definition of inflation and deflation. Okay, so I'm going to give you an example that kind of illustrates the difference between this terminology, because both of these things are happening, but depending on, like, how you correctly define it. And it answers your question that you just asked Natalie. So I recently did a show where I was talking to this expert on Tesla and these robo taxis that Elon Musk has running in Austin. And I think the other, he's running them in San Francisco or Silicon Valley or something like that, that they're finally testing these things out. The reduction in cost compared to uber is about 80% a reduction. So if you, if you would take, let's say I took a Uber to the airport right now and let's say it was 20 bucks. With a robotaxi, it's going to be like $4. Okay, can. So when you think about this word deflation, what we're talking about is tech deflation. That enhancement in AI, the robotics, the cost to manufacture these cars, the fact that no human needs to be in the car driving is why the price is going from 20 to 4. Okay. The impact that that has on society. I think the number of Uber drivers. Hold on here. I looked up this number and then I forgot. I think it's 7 or 8 million. 8.8 million people today drive for Uber. Wow.
Larry Lippard
Worldwide or US? Worldwide.
Preston Pysh
Worldwide. Worldwide. 8.8 million people drive for Uber. Do you really think Uber can compete in this space? When this starts to go at scale, Call it five, ten years from now, and pretty much these are the who. Who you can't compete with Waymo. I. I mean, those cars look like they cost $200,000 with all the sensors and everything. There's no way they're going to compete. Right. I read that these robo taxi cars, he's able to build these cars at like 10 or $20,000 cheaper than the retail cars that he's selling. If you go out and buy a Tesla today, these robo taxis are like $20,000 cheaper than the ones that you would buy. And so, and I guess his, his ability to get the principal back on the car, the car might cost him 30, $35,000 to make. He gets that completely back within two years of letting it just run. Okay, so he has no incentive to sell a car to somebody that's going to sit on the car for five years. And then he makes, you know, three to five thousand bucks on the car every five years when he can get the complete principal back. And then it's just all gravy for the next three to five years by running the Robotaxi. And the cost is like way cheaper than a person, you know, owning their own car. So like I can just call that thing on my smartphone. It picks me up. I don't have to ever worry about maintenance. I don't have to worry about any of that stuff. And it cost me four bucks to go to the. Like, how are you going to compete in that? So the tech deflation is going to cause, in my opinion, massive amounts of fiat inflation as the governments try to offset all this, these job losses. Right. The thing that people are failing, I literally just read and sorry to go on and on here, but this is, I think this is something that is just so misunderstood as people are looking at this inflation versus deflation thing. So Amazon literally just saw this article today. Amazon is trying to replace 75% of their workforce. 1.5 million people work in their labor in Amazon today. So they're trying to replace 75% of those people within, I think the timeline was by 2033. They're trying to replace 75% of them with like humanoid robots and stuff. Okay, so what are those people going to do exactly for work? Well, the government's going to have to subsidize that. The government is going to have to print. And this isn't me promoting ubi. I'm just telling you, politically this is going to become extremely popular for people to have some type of subsidy from the government. Well, how's the government going to do that? They're just going to print. How's the government going to offset the commercial real estate stuff we were talking about? Well, they're going to do these, these, these facilities that you can basically put the, the ownership on the certificate of ownership on deposit at the bank and they'll list it at par. Things like that is, which is a form of printing. So the, the mechanics for them to deal with all this dislocation is why the fiat is going to be very inflationary. But as far as prices go to go do these things, they're going to be extremely deflationary as the intelligence and all this stuff kind of kicks into hype.
Larry Lippard
This is Jeff's overarching point that you can't have a debt based credit system which by its very nature is like a shark. It has to grow and expand in an economy where we're getting increasingly more efficient and it's increasingly deflationary. And I would add to your point about pressing points about how much things are going down on Amazon. I just did a deep dive on some of the manufacturing going on in China. You know, China is manufacturing car, electric cars that are better than ours, better than, better than Tesla and the cost is about half as much and they're using as much as 70% robotics on the assembly line. I mean this is, you know, this is just really going to disrupt, you know, our standard, you know, manufacturing jobs to the degree we even have any left. And I think on the political side, Natalie, as you point out, I mean this is why a mummy in New York is so popular because, and you know, I've got kids down there who, you know, raised in a capitalist bitcoiner family are actually pretty sympathetic to what the message the guy's saying. And you know, dad has to spend time convincing them that he's all full of shit, that his solution is wrong. But you know, his messaging is good. I mean he's, you know, he's right. I mean people are getting screwed. I mean we all know that.
Preston Pysh
I think effective is a better word.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, not good. You're right, you're right, Preston. It's effective in terms of what he's trying to. Well, he's probably going to win. Right? And that will lead to UBI etc. I mean I'll let you guys in on kind of my peak view of the next six or seven years. Conferences people have recently asked it. Here's how I think this goes down. I think we have a lot more inflation for the next few years. And then I think sadly in 20.
Preston Pysh
In the money supply.
Larry Lippard
In the money supply and in prices. And then I think as a result of that, sadly in 20, 28 blue team wins because they come in and they prom. The bottom half is hurting and the bottom half votes out the upper half. And basically, you know, Andrew Yang is VP and we get UBI and Stephanie Kelton as Treasury Secretary. And that's the last nail in the Fiat coffin. And so from there, we go into very high inflation, bordering on hyperinflation. And then I think in 2032, Michael Saylor's the richest man in the world and he runs for President and wins and brings an engineering solution to the problem, and we're out of this fourth turning. That's kind of my view on how this unfolds.
Preston Pysh
Larry. I would push back on the. Or I would just kind of define this inflation thing a little bit more.
Larry Lippard
Okay.
Preston Pysh
So if it's something that is very scarce and desirable and very difficult to replicate or to like, for example, beef.
Larry Lippard
Right.
Preston Pysh
It's kind of, it's. It's a tricky thing to really kind of expand.
Larry Lippard
You can't automate it.
Preston Pysh
Yeah, I mean, you can automate some things, but not really. Like, it's going to be a lot harder to do it. So will you see the price of, of something like that really kind of go up in Fiat terms? Hell yeah, you will. I think you're going to continue to see it rip. But then on things like, like what we just discussed with, like the Uber situation, get, you know, riding around in your car and how automated some of that's going to become, I think the prices could go in a direction that are actually quite surprising lower.
Larry Lippard
I agree.
Preston Pysh
And so I think the critical thing, as you're thinking through, is it going to be really expensive or is it going to be really cheap? If AI and in humanoid robotics can step in and augment a profession or an industry pretty drastically, you might not actually see the prices in fiat terms explode up. But if it's something that, you know, the example that Michael always uses is a house in the Hamptons, well, you can't create another Hamptons. Like there's only one Hamptons or whatever. Right. Think when you think through it, of the scarcity of the desirable thing as it exists on the planet. If you can't replicate that, it's. The prices in fiat terms are just going to blow people's minds. Absolutely blow people's minds. But if it is something that you can replicate, the prices might actually be like, like really deflationary. And I think that dynamic is going to be really strange for people as they're going through a lot of this, because all this printing, people, as soon as they get it in their, in their hot hands, the first thing they're going to do is try to go out and get the thing that they just can't that is scarce and desirable. Right, right.
Larry Lippard
That's the thing.
Preston Pysh
They want to go get whatever is scarce and desirable. That's what they're going to try to get with their newly issued coupons that everybody's receiving.
Natalie
I just find all of this fascinating because when I watch interviews with younger voters, they all really demonize capitalism and they blame it for all of the problems that they're facing. And they resent. They resent the corporations, the executives. And I just, I understand what it's like to want to tax the rich because I really, really resonated with that move. After the great financial crisis, I was like a total Bernie supporter. And I felt like there was just such an injustice at the core of the system and that some force, which I guess thought should be the government, needed to go in there and equalize things and redistribute the wealth and share it with the working class that's working so hard but feeling disenfranchised. And it wasn't until I went down the rabbit hole of Bitcoin and started studying different economic theories and really understood, took the time to learn what capitalism actually is, that it completely changed my worldview. And I. And I realized I was blaming a lot of the symptoms on the. On the wrong thing.
Preston Pysh
Natalie, your point is we haven't had capitalism?
Larry Lippard
Well, that's right.
Preston Pysh
We think we capitalism, this is crony.
Larry Lippard
Capitalism that benefits a certain set of people. Right.
Natalie
Well, you know, for people listening who might resonate with some of these promises being made, not just. I mean, we're seeing it obviously in New York City, but I think we're going to see it in many, many place. It's going to be maybe the platform of one of the major political parties. So, like, what do people have wrong? Why should they not look at capitalism as something that inherently just creates all of this wealth inequality due to greed?
Larry Lippard
So that that's, I mean, obviously it's an advertisement for my book and for your book as well. But, you know, this isn't really capitalism, as. Yeah, as Preston has pointed out, this is not really capitalism. And the reason it's unjust and unfair is that the system is stacked in favor of the people who are sitting at the top and are controlling the monetary strings. And in a fairer monetary system, the wealth would not be so tilted to the top. And so capitalism in and of itself is not flawed. It created the greatest country in the world in 1946, and it has brought a standard of living to the world that had never been known before and will never Be will continue to increase forever if we allow it to, to flourish. But we don't have capitalism. We have crony capitalism. And that's the core of the problem. And you can't solve it through taxation. I mean, taxation is just money that government grabs to waste on stupid shit. You can only solve it through greater efficiency. And the only way you can get greater efficiency is to have engineers running the place and to basically be pricing money correctly so the right things get financed and produced. I mean, if we had, instead of building all those tanks that Preston alludes to and pissing away $8 trillion in the middle east, you know, if we had been building nuclear reactors like China has done, you know, our average kilowatt hour price is, you know, 14 cents an hour across the United States. China average kilowatt per hour price for electricity is 5 cents. So why did the Chinese pay one third of what we pay for electricity? Well, it's because, I mean, admittedly in a communist system that was state directed, but at least the people at the top were smart enough to realize that rather than go get in a bunch of wars, let's actually make ourselves more efficient. And that's really, I mean, you know, we've got too many lawyers and not enough engineers. If we want to have better living standards, we need more engineers and we need to make things better, cheaper, faster. And the only way to do that is to allocate capital properly. And when you have a fiat system, where I posted a chart this morning in my Twitter feed, I mean, you know, we're, we're zooming back and forth between high rates, low rates, high rates, low rates, 0 interest, 20% interest. It's nuts. It's absolutely nuts. And that's the core of the problem. And, but, but I get why people would look at it and say, oh, these billionaires are taking advantage of me. And to be fair, some of those billionaires are only billionaires because of this broken system. You know, that's, they don't deserve the wealth they have. Some of them created real value. I don't dispute that. But some of them are just really money changers who figured out a way to game the system. I mean, the private equity guys, the leveraged buyout guys, I mean, they're rich as Croesus because they can borrow from the Fed and the government at very low rates and put it into a carry trade. And that's the problem. And taxation doesn't solve it. What solves it is draining the monetary swamp. Getting rid of the Fed.
Natalie
Well, and you're putting a spotlight on the outcome of this post1971 structure of the global financial system with the dollar at the core as the reserve asset, which we can just print. Right. And we financialized the economy. We've made Wall street very, very wealthy and anyone can connected to political access. Very, very wealthy. Happy, all of that. But now things seem to be changing. China has a lot more leverage on us than I think anyone on Wall street wants to admit. I think this is what Luke Groman does such a great job explaining in some of his recent newsletters, especially when it comes to the ra which are now being weaponized. And I know that I think we're getting some sort of a trade deal now with China where we're going to allow them to have chips, they're going to allow us to have some of these rare earths. And no one is admitting that it just takes so long in terms of creating the infrastructure to become competitive again after we've spent decades just hollowing ourselves out and essentially selling ourselves to these other countries. Right. In exchange for paper promises. And I would love to get your thoughts on these geopolitical shifts that are happening because when you zoom out, we're clearly moving away from the dollar as the reserve ass. But we're not moving to bitcoin. We're moving right now, it seems, to gold. So what do you think is happening geopolitically and how can this eventually benefit bitcoin?
Preston Pysh
I would just say that people in the United States are finally starting to figure out that meat doesn't come from the grocery store, gas doesn't come from.
Natalie
The gas station, water doesn't come from the faucet. That's what Luke wrote.
Preston Pysh
Yeah, from the faucet. And Luke was saying, I love this framing because at the core what you're getting at is first principle thinking of like, where do these things come from? If it's refined, where's the refinery? Is it here in the United States or is it overseas? And like, when you go to the root of where these tangible, desirable things come from, you quickly learn your dependencies on getting the desirable things. Because for you know, under the petrodollar system, we had a huge tailwind of just living in the lap of luxury. Because the paper that was achieving this network effect around the world allowed us to rest on our laurels and to think that it was our skill that got us to where we're at as opposed to the environmental setup. And for a lot of people, they're learning the hard lesson that it was actually the environmental setup that resulted in their success as opposed to their skill. And so, you know, I feel like I've been saying this for what feels like a decade, is that if you're a net producer as a country, like, they're going to be able to weather this a lot easier than the net consumers. And when you look at all the advanced economies around the world, they're mostly net consumers. And they're finding out very quickly, like, why it's important to actually have the mine in your domain and in your region, as opposed to be reliant and have a dependency on somebody else to provide you a rare earth metal for your F22 fighter. That thing's only as good as the logistics supply chain that fixes the parts and pieces of all these complex end items to keep it in the air. It's that simple. And like, that's just one tiny thing in this very grand complex system we call our economy. So as that dollar petrodollar system starts to unwind itself, which I would argue the unwind or the start of that unwind was Covid and we're trending in this direction and you finally have some people starting to understand, like, the importance of bringing this stuff domestically back inside the U.S. will the humanoid robots help in that process? I think that it's pretty much our only hope because I think the capacity of the humans in this, in this particular country to go back and start doing some of these jobs that existed, you know, decades and decades ago is not there.
Natalie
Yeah, we don't have the skilled labor infrastructure projects, and we don't have the welders. We don't have the electricians.
Preston Pysh
Yeah, you don't have the mental health to go back and perform that type of work in this country. And so, you know, that's, that's hope. But, you know, it also is, is it just plays on this theme of displacement. You know, just there's, there's going to be a ton of displacement, but people just need to be prepared. I mean, you got a, you got a massive shift that's happening here. Decades and decades of, of things that are going to reassure themselves. But I suspect it's going to be rooted in a whole lot of advanced technologies that allow it to come back and get here. And in the meantime, you know, like the, the incentives for violence are, are pretty interesting how maybe you can't even act on it because you don't even have the capacity from a logistic standpoint to act on it. And hopefully we have people in the, in the seats that understand their, their complete impotence when it comes to acting on some of their desires for violence. Because I would, I would suggest they're completely, completely, completely in. Incapable of acting on anything that, that involves. That they might last, you know, 15 to 30 days, but after that they're going to find out that, you know, the real pros when it comes to, to military defense action study logistics and not necessarily their tactics.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, yeah. I think one of the most positive things, I think the point Luke Gromen has made is very interesting, is that, you know, basically China has stripped our ability to actually conduct a war.
Preston Pysh
Yeah.
Larry Lippard
Unless China becomes very warlike. And I honestly don't think they are. You know, it's rather ironic, but that might be a good thing.
Preston Pysh
Totally agree.
Larry Lippard
You know, you know, we saw, I mean, just, just trying to resupply, you know, both Israel and Ukraine, some of the shortages of weapons was, it was rather shocking how quickly we ran out of stuff and we're unable to replace it. So look, worship, worship go away eventually over time, and I believe it will after this worth turning because I think, I don't think, I don't think the average human being wants to go to other countries and kill people. I just don't think that's true. I think psychopaths want to do that. But psychopaths should be in jail, you know, not, not, you know, retired like Dick Cheney is, you know, so, you know, a better world is coming. And, and the way to get there, as I think both of you know, and as my book argues, as yours does too, Nat, is, is if we return the money to a sound footing, a lot of other incentives get properly realigned. You know, people can't make money buying companies and strip mining them. PE can't make money buying vet, veterinarians and making them charge way too much to keep your dog alive and then killing your dog. Anyway, like what just happened to me recently. I mean, it's just all these incentives get turned on their head when the money is sound. And, you know, the political incentives change too. You know, the bribes, all that stuff, it, it disappears when there's not free money to be had. But we've gotta, we've got to get from here to there. And that's going to be, you know, a messy five, six, seven years.
Natalie
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Larry Lippard
Yeah, and I would, I would only say, and I know Preston feels very strongly about this, I do too, I would only say yet.
Natalie
Yeah.
Larry Lippard
I mean, what's going on here is. Okay, so, so let's, let's review what's happened recently. One of the bigger things that's happened recently is that Wall street has woken up to the, what they call the monetary debasement trade. We've been talking about that for five or ten years, right. JP Morgan termed at the monetary debasement trade. You know, Mohamed El Arian came out and spotted as if he'd been known, known it for the last five years. I mean he's a bandwagon jumper. He's very late to the game. And you know, JP Morgan, the guy, you know, who CEO basically hated bitcoin, thought it was, you know, a Ponzi scheme. They've now decided to accept it as collateral. So, you know, what's going on is bitcoin is winning in all these different formats. But you know, historically at government levels and above, you know, gold has been money for 5,000 years. And if there's a monetary debasement trade to be had, they're not quite ready for bitcoin yet. They don't understand it, they're afraid of it. Quantum. All the, all the FUD is still existent in a lot of mines. And I deal with gold bugs 247 who can't get over the fact that it's money that's not physical. I'm like, money's always been a ledger but they can't get there. And so, you know, these guys are just doing what they've traditionally done and they're going to get to bitcoin. They're just not ready yet. I mean, I mean I kind of think of them as like, you know, pre evolved people, sub evolved people. And eventually they will evolve to the level that they know that bitcoin is far superior to gold. But you know what, it's Churchill, right? Americans do the right thing after everything else. First we'll try gold and then they'll realize that's not going to work because the LBMA and all those guys create a lot of paper gold and they'll get to bitcoin.
Preston Pysh
Who are these?
Larry Lippard
Yeah, so I mean, look, we're going there and to me it's all good. And that's why, you know, I, I very much encourage bitcoiners not to on gold people and gold people not to on bitcoin because we're all in the same fight to get rid of Fiat and gold. If gold's a stepping stone for a few people, fine. You know, it's a little less volatile. And I've got 80 year old clients who don't want 50 drawdowns. They're not going to buy bitcoin. Fine, buy gold. You know, so. But, but the point is, you know, I view all gold bugs as just pre bitcoiners. They will, they will come to bitcoin eventually. They just aren't quite there yet. So. And, and I think that's, I think that's true of the central banks as well. I mean, I think they'll get there eventually. They're just not there yet.
Preston Pysh
All I can say, nat, is, is more time to buy. More time to buy. You know, what? If it stays at these levels for the next five years, so be it. Hey, I'm not complaining.
Larry Lippard
And let me share a screen with you. The thing is, gold is a great leading indicator for bitcoin. I mean, it tends to move before bitcoin moves. And, you know, here's a great chart that my partner and Joe Consorti did that basically shows, you know, bitcoin and gold overlay against one another. Notice how they're correlated. They are, yeah. And also notice how different the scales are. I mean, you know, gold has gone from 1500 to 4000. You know, Bitcoin's gone from 10,000 to 100,000. So, you know, bitcoin is exponentially beating gold, but they kind of track together. And I think one of the interesting things in this period, look at 2019 and 2020, gold took off. You know, the repo crisis occurred. Everyone could smell Covid coming. Covid came in. Gold shot from, you know, 1200 to 2000. Quickly. Bitcoin was just. I remember because I owned both back then. All my bitcoin friends are like, what the hell is going on? Well then bitcoin, like that lion that's described by Christopher walken, you know, in one of his great soliloquies, that lion just woke up and decided to go down there and kill everything. And bitcoin went from 10 to 60, you know, a six bagger, you know.
Preston Pysh
You know, what's interesting on this chart, Larry, is you can see, you can see the liquidity expansion and contraction that's happened.
Larry Lippard
Right?
Preston Pysh
So you got 2020. They expanded the liquidity. They, they eased off of it into, you know, the end of 2022. And then they started expanding it again. And this is the point that I want to make right now. As you look at this chart, we've got tightening liquidity conditions.
Larry Lippard
Yes.
Preston Pysh
And look, look at what the chart's doing. Okay. Can you imagine where this is going next as they turn the spigot back on here and call next. Yeah.
Larry Lippard
I mean that's, that's 180, 000 Bitcoin. That's going to go off the chart. I mean. Yeah. What's interesting here is look at how when he started tightening in 20, 22, look at how Bitcoin just, I mean, and as you pointed out in the very beginning of this conversation, Bitcoin is very, very sensitive to liquidity. More so than gold. Yes. So it swings a lot further and harder.
Preston Pysh
But, and you know what, gold gets.
Larry Lippard
The underlying trend though, which is debasement. Right.
Preston Pysh
And if you put, if you put high quality equity on this chart as well.
Larry Lippard
Yeah.
Preston Pysh
You would see a very similar wave pattern of the liquidity coming in and the liquidity going out and you would also see it making new all time highs. And I think this goes to the point that you brought up about Sven earlier in the conversation where Sven was like, wow, we got Nvidia at 5 trillion in market cap and we're going through the tightening impairment phase of the cycle.
Larry Lippard
Yeah.
Natalie
Imagine what it is after.
Preston Pysh
Hang on. Because this, this baby's gonna be lit.
Larry Lippard
Well, that's, that. Yeah, that's one of the amazing things. I mean, look at it. If you really looked at Jerome Powell analytically, Stock markets at record highs, gold's at record highs, bitcoin's at record highs, silver's at record highs, and we're cutting rates.
Preston Pysh
What.
Larry Lippard
The reason is because he's got no choice.
Preston Pysh
Yeah.
Larry Lippard
The monetary system, the banking system cannot handle the stress if we don't create more money.
Preston Pysh
This is why people are missing their car payments. This is why you're like, when you look at the common person around the world and like what they're dealing with, they're in intense pain right now.
Larry Lippard
Oh yeah, it's terrible.
Natalie
Well, and to your earlier points about companies like Nvidia, the stock market, it's all, it's all so concentrated in just a few companies. And it's not just like that. They are super high in terms of their market cap and their prices. But when you think about things like they're the ones that need all these data centers and they're the ones that are going to need all this energy that you can't just print out of thin air. Right. And that does have a lot of implications for Bitcoin as well because I just see non stop headlines about data centers and costs and costs going up. Do you guys have any thoughts on that?
Preston Pysh
So, Nat, this goes straight to the point that we made earlier is, is when you're looking at what's going to get a bid in the coming five years, it's going to be scarce, and it's going to be desirable. Okay. That applies to equity, too. Okay. So look at Nvidia. What does Nvidia really represent? We were talking about going, you know, that the meat isn't from the grocery store. You got to go upstream. Like, how is that meat? So when you. When you look at AI, when you go far enough upstream of AI, who's the funnel? Literally just sucking every one of these dollars into the funnel? Well, it's the company that is producing the chips that are the absolute best chips on the planet for conducting AI models. And nobody can compete with these guys. Not even close. So, you know, you see all these. How much money open, AI and Microsoft, and everybody's dropping into this space. Well, where does. Where does all that funnel? Down into. It funnels down into Nvidia. And so does he have to create more shares of Nvidia? Heck, no. He's making tons of money. Right. So it's scarce, it's very desirable. And so it's going to. In fiat terms, it's going to get a bid in bitcoin terms is pretty flat.
Larry Lippard
But is that right?
Preston Pysh
Well, I mean, it might be up slightly in bitcoin terms, but not a lot. But in fiat terms, that baby is ripping.
Natalie
I find the CEO of Nvidia really fascinating. I would so badly want to interview him, but I wanted to get your take. This isn't really a bitcoin question, but when I hear him speak, he's so interesting because he really praises the Trump administration, really praises him. But at the same time, he's been very hurt by some of these tariff announcements and the inability to sell into places like China. Do you guys have any thoughts on that? Do you think sometimes we get just, like, very, you know, politically correct responses and speeches as opposed to what's actually happening under the surface?
Preston Pysh
He's not stupid.
Natalie
Yeah.
Larry Lippard
He's gonna say he loves Trump now, whether that's how he really feels or not. Yeah, you don't want to pick a fight.
Preston Pysh
The thing I find most fascinating about him is his invention is parallel processing. And what I find also interesting is when you look at how he runs his organization, it's like there's no staff. It's like everybody's just, like, sending him emails, and it's all this parallel compute, even amongst the people that he's leading. And you could even make the argument maybe politically it's a parallel compute of just he's acting in all these different directions. I find it kind of fascinating. The product that he's like literally brought to the world is this idea that he doing all this parallel processing.
Larry Lippard
Yeah.
Natalie
I wanted to get your guys take really quickly about Quantum, because when I speak to people who maybe are newcomers or skeptical about Bitcoin, now, the biggest FUD is Quantum. That Quantum is going to hack Bitcoin. There's going to be issues if we try to fork Bitcoin to something quantum resistant. Would love to get your thoughts on that threat.
Larry Lippard
Go, Preston. I'm not an engineer and I listen to Preston and Lynn and they tell me not to worry. And so I don't worry.
Preston Pysh
I. I don't know that I would quantify it as fud. I think that it's something that the community needs to take very serious. I think that. I think the timeline is the part that makes this really, really tricky to, to kind of fully understand. Because with AI, when you, when you put AI on top of this, the breakthroughs that you might get in quantum could maybe be accelerated way faster than what we're expecting in our very linear minds and what we've seen. So that's my concern as we're looking at what this is. But let me try my best to kind of quantify where I think we're at in space and time. So when we look at quantum computing, you'll read headlines. You go out there and Microsoft is saying they're going to have a million Qubit processor by 2030 with their Majorana One topological Qubit processor. So you read that and you're saying, well, that's not good because, you know, I'm reading that you only need about 1,000 to maybe 10,000 qubit quantum processor to start cracking keys within a day. Within a day or two. Right. And even those numbers and math are tricky to kind of wrap your head around. Even using AI to say, okay, it's like, how much is it? But this is where the terminology and some of the noise and things that you read are really hard to dissect if you're not like really well versed on this on this particular topic. So they'll say a million qubits. But what they're failing to tell you is that it's physical qubits as opposed to logical qubits. And when you get into this space, logical qubits are what you need in order to conduct the calculations, in order to, you know, Crack the keys. And so then, then it's like, okay, well, what's the difference between a logical qubit and a physical qubit? Well, you have a noise factor. So, like, let's say I have 100 physical qubits. Qubits processor. The, the noise to keep them in sync and to get the coherence that you need in order to conduct the calculations. There's a, there's noise factors. It's too, the temperature is too hot.
Larry Lippard
It's.
Preston Pysh
You had this vibration and it knocks it out. So you need 100 physical qubits to get maybe 10 logical qubits that, to conduct calculations. Okay, so the, the noise factor could be 10 to 1. It could be 100 to 1. And what you don't ever read in these articles is what the noise factor is and whether they're even talking about a physical qubit versus logical qubit processor. Okay, here's, here's further definition of, like, where we're at in space and time today. I would, you know, and I have to go do the research, but it's in this ballpark. The highest logical qubit processor that exists is like 40. Okay, it might even be less than. It might be like 20. But it's really low. It's definitely under 100. Logical qubit processor. That doesn't mean it can't ramp. But where we're at today is they're really low numbers. And it might be another decade before they could get to 300 logical qubits. And to again conduct these calculations, you have to keep these things entangled. They have to be in a superposition, and then they have to all together create this coherent, this wave that then makes the answer or pop out of the coherence of these things. So to do that at scale, I don't know if it's twice as hard to go from 100 to 200 or if it's 10 times harder to go from 100 to 200. And so talking to anybody in this domain to try to pin them down on the timeline is extremely difficult to do. And, okay, so all of that, I'm trying to just frame that so you kind of understand where we're at space and time, and also to understand, like, why there's so much confusion around just even understanding how long this is going to take. With all of that said, I think it's extremely important for this community to come together and get behind a solution and to start testing a solution so that we can get the consensus. Because, again, Bitcoin's strength. But Also a weakness is the consensus that it takes to get everybody kind of all roan in the same direction to achieve the outcome that we're all desiring. Here's another thing about quantum that's important for people to understand. To rotate the keys from what we have today to quantum proof keys takes a whole lot more memory inside of each block to rotate the keys. This is going to be a soft fork, this is not going to be a hard fork. So if you have you. If you have bitcoin in a pub key and you want to move them to the quantum encrypted address, pub key, you have to get it into a block and you have to get it the transaction to clear in a block in order to get the, the coins to the new address. If the whole community, if you have a, if you have a hundred dollars worth of bitcoin in a public address and you want to rotate that. So anybody with over a hundred dollars worth of bitcoin in an address and you want to rotate it, it could be anywhere from three months to maybe nine months after the software goes through to just rotate all of those accounts over. So is this something we want to wait 10 years to do? I don't think so. I think it's something that we need to have a very active conversation. And honestly, Nat, watching this filter debate that's happening in the community and how it's just like in my opinion, a whole lot of noise and a whole lot of anger and infighting. I'm looking at that and I'm saying this is literally a thousand times more complex and has a thousand more variables and is. Is actually important. That's where the discussion should be taking place. You have Hunter beast that has a. Already wrote bip360. It's out. Sorry, I'm going so long here.
Natalie
No, this is really helpful.
Larry Lippard
I want it.
Preston Pysh
You got bip360. That's already written, it's already out there and you know, that's up for discussion. I think there needs to be a whole lot more people talking about like, what, what's that roadmap look like? I. We really don't have somebody to kind of lead the charge. And I think a lot of people are apprehensive to step up and try to lead the charge because they know they're just going to be like publicly crucified if they step up there because the, they're going to say they have this disincentive or that they're trying to pump their bags for whatever. Right. So who's leading that charge. How can we get this consensus around this? How can we get the discussion going? And ultimately how can we upgrade Bitcoin so that it's quantum proof? Because, you know, when you look at traditional banking, you have layers on layers on layers that are completely centralized so they can go in there and they can provide up. So I think that traditional banking and traditional rails to become quantum proof are actually in a much better position than an open source protocol like Bitcoin to conduct the upgrade. And so this is me sounding the alarm that I think we need to take this serious. I think we need to get the right people marching in the right direction to get something across the line. By the way, roast beef out of Lightning Labs, I guess is also going to have a quantum BIP that's either out or it's just about to kind of come out. And so we have two solutions. There's, let's go through, let's talk about this. Let's really kind of, you know, kick the tires and get something going. And you know, I think, I think the reason you have so many people just whitewash it is oh, you know, let's like, yeah, quantum is because for years it's really, it has been like this thing way off and Neverland and not being real. But I, I'm, I'm kind of looking at AI and I'm thinking that I think things are going to accelerate maybe a little faster than we anticipate. And if I'm wrong about that, what's there to lose by kind of moving out on this and like actually taking it serious? So that's kind of where I see that, that's how I see quantum.
Larry Lippard
What's your time frame though, Preston, in terms of it becoming a threat? I mean, what's your, you know, honestly.
Preston Pysh
Larry, I think it's it when you talk to the experts, a lot of the times the people have this perverted incentive to tell you it's, it's way faster than other like somebody might be investing in the space or maybe they're running a lab and they know a ton about quantum and they're trying to money for their lab. And so it's really hard for me to pick apart where the truth lies in this timeline.
Larry Lippard
Fair enough.
Preston Pysh
And so all I'm saying is if it happened in the next 10 years, it wouldn't really surprise me that much. If it happened in five years, I would be surprised. Okay, this is me just literally like spitballing it. Yeah, I know, like nothing. So my opinion is pretty worthless.
Natalie
I mean, we know that computing is advancing faster and faster, especially with artificial intelligence. My comment is that one thing that makes me not as concerned is just, is just knowing that SHA256 is so secure compared to some of these other systems that we have and we rely on and trust. That would obviously get hacked far, far sooner than something like Bitcoin, right? And so would a Microsoft, for example, release a quantum computer with enough qubits that it could hack its own system, right? And all of their, all of their systems are compromised. Now if you use one of their platforms, like Quantum could easily hack it, like that's one thing. But my real question is, it's, it sounds like for you, it's, it's a certainty that this will happen and Bitcoin will need to fork into something that is quantum resistant and there could be keys that are very compromised and potentially people lose their, their money.
Preston Pysh
I don't, I don't know that it's a sure thing. Like, I think it's such an obscure topic that we don't even know if it's possible to have a quantum computer. I mean, I suspect it, it could happen. But honestly, when you get into this and you're like, oh yeah, well, you gotta have, you gotta have the, the particles in a superposition and then they've got to be entangled and then those particles that are entangled are kicking off like waves that when they interact the answers pop. Like this stuff is so obscure, right? I don't know if it's real. If you can. I mean, obviously it's real because we have done it on a very small scale. But what I'm not fully convinced on is to keep all of that completely coherent at a very large scale. Meaning, you know, 10,000 logical qubit. Is, is that possible? I honestly don't know, Nat. Maybe it's not even possible. I don't know. It's a lot of coherence.
Natalie
If it is, then Satoshi's coins will eventually move.
Preston Pysh
Well, if he's still alive and still has the keys to move them, then yes. But if somebody creates a computer that can do this, they can absolutely take those keys. Unless there's a soft fork that prevents the addresses that haven't moved. And that gets into a whole nother topic as far as like what the BIP proposals would be. Because think of it, if you did, if you did some fork that said if the, if the, the coins haven't moved in a 10 year period in this upgrade, they actually go back into the coinbase and are going to be distributed over the next hundred years or whatever. Like there's all sorts of things you could do in a fork. Right?
Natalie
Yeah.
Preston Pysh
So. And think about the debate on just that idea. Oh, yeah, right. So getting consensus, I think really needs to be around because you're going to have people that are gonna say, well, what if North Korea started just. I'm using really extreme examples here. What if North Korea gets their hands on a quantum computer? They could take Satoshi's coins. And then like people have arguments for arguments for arguments. And I think the simpler we can kind of keep this and the more compact we can keep it for the soft fork and then get. Test the hell out of it, get it out there, build the consensus. But we need a really good champion, a team of experts and people to kind of drive this. And, and it needs to be a very open discussion. And do I, do I want to step up and do that? Hell no, I don't want to do that. That would be the last thing I want to do. But.
Natalie
Well, and for the average person listening who might not be super technical, I think it does sound really scary if you hold your own keys to, to think about the responsibility that it will take in order to migrate and what will the costs of that potentially be, you know, in the future if, if block space is more expensive, is it. Will it be easier if you're holding your keys essentially with block space, wards and.
Larry Lippard
Right.
Preston Pysh
Because people. There's going to be an argument. Well, it's taking too long for everybody to rotate their keys. We need bigger blocks.
Natalie
Yeah.
Preston Pysh
In general, I just, I think we, I would rather, you know, I'm, I'm a person who likes to be prepared. I'm a person that likes preparation. You know, like, let's, let's not scare people, but let's actually like, treat it with respect and let's try to get something going and like, let's get something across the finish line and, and you know, act like we've been here before.
Natalie
Okay, I want an honest answer from both of you on this then. Does this potential threat, even though we don't know how far away it is or if really even exists, does it change your perspective on how much of your net worth you would want in bitcoin?
Preston Pysh
Not today.
Larry Lippard
No, not today. Not made. I think in general, I mean, humans are good at solving problems. And I think that if quantum becomes, I mean, and bitcoin is going to become the base layer of money in the world, in my opinion, my kids will do deals and Satoshis and the dollar will be long gone or my grandkids for sure. And so if that's the case, I think that solutions will emerge. The people with the largest interests, you know, will weigh in with their votes and, you know, the correct solutions will emerge. I mean, hopefully there will be a lot more intelligence and maturity in those future developments. And my gut is it's probably 5, 10, 15, 20 years away. Yeah, it might be until these things become relevant. And you know, there will be computer scientists working on it and you know, we'll, we'll just migrate to whatever it takes to, to have the thing continue to run. There's too much at stake for having it fail that, you know, I think human beings will figure out a way to, in a safe manner, migrate it so it doesn't fail. That's, that's the bet I'm making. And so I'm willing to have an enormous part of my net worth in bitcoin.
Preston Pysh
I agree with that because I think.
Larry Lippard
That'S where we'll eventually go.
Preston Pysh
Yeah, I agree with that. And I'm just not convinced that you're going to be able to build an environment for, for a quantum computer to have coherence at that level within the next five. I don't think it's happening in the next five years. I really don't.
Larry Lippard
But I, I agree with the notion of keeping our eye on it. You know, I mean, and there are a lot of, look, there are a lot of smart people and there's a lot of wealth in bitcoin. And those two things, I think are going to ensure that people keep their eye on it. I mean, to me, I mean, I remember asking Saylor at one of his events years ago. Michael, in your view, what's the largest risk to bitcoin? And you guys know the answer to this. He said human beings like to tinker with things. And my greatest concern would be that core goes rogue and starts trying to do shit they don't need to do and they mess up what is really quite elegant and beautiful and doesn't need tinkering with. Yep. And, and I, and I share his view. I mean, fortunately, because of the way everyone, quote unquote, gets to vote on these things if, you know, with forks and otherwise, you know, there's a little bit of a fail safe against that. And he pointed that out as well. So.
Natalie
Okay, great points. Before we wrap up, I want to circle back to macro for a moment. Larry, you just mentioned that in the future you think that your kids will be Transacting in satoshis. Today we live in still a dollarized world and I would kind of love to get your guys take on that when it comes to stablecoins because I have heard a lot of conversations yet Americans don't really use stable coins. I know there's been an increase in banks using stablecoins for settlement, but it seems like the strategy that they've shared is their direction is that that stablecoins will extend dollar dominance. Yet I don't really see how it's. How it's going to kind of work in the system. And will stablecoins just be used maybe on the margin or for international use cases? Or do you see like digital dollars becoming stable coins?
Larry Lippard
So the whole notion that stablecoins are going to save the world and they're going to buy all the treasury bills and everything's going to get solved, that's just all horseshit in my view. That's as real as Doge is going to cut a trillion or $2 trillion from the budget. It. I mean, yes, stablecoin usage is growing. I mean to me what the stable coins are right now. And I met with some people in Prague, some Russians who told me stable coins are a mechanism to get around the Swift system. If you've been shut out of the swift system, if you were a Russian company and you were trying to do business after 2022 when we grabbed all their okay, they, they had no way of moving money around until they got crypto accounts and put dollars on stable because stablecoin is still tied to the dollar and the dollar is doomed. I did say my kids will transact in satoshi. I think they will later in their lives. My grandkids will definitely transact exclusively in satoshis. But I don't think stablecoins are the panacea that they're being portrayed as. I do think they will continue to grow in usage. But you know, why should somebody give up the use of their money and let the stablecoin issuer earn the 4%? I mean to me this stable coins are really just an alternative rail for moving money when you can't use swift. I mean that's full stop. That's it. And so, you know, if you're shut out of the swift system, you buy, you use a stablecoin. Is there going to be enough of that to buy the entire treasury market? No way. No way in hell there. I mean today the total Stablecoin market is $300 billion and we're rolling over 10 trillion a year. I mean it would have to double, you know, many, many years in a row and it's only growing at about 40 or 50% a year. So that's, that's kind of my view.
Preston Pysh
I think that the, the stable coins are going to continue to proliferate. It's going to continue to take more and more market share. The numbers that we're talking about are obviously massive. The ones that Larry just quoted kind of give you an idea of like how big the stable coins are compared to the rest of the, the rest of the market. I just want to add maybe a talking point that nobody is really kind of throwing out there. I think MicroStrategy's STRC preferred issuance is really interesting, especially as you compare it to stablecoins. So here is especially in the face of the genius act. So the genius act opens the door for US based banks to issue their own stable coins and transact with each other in an immediate way where they don't, they're not paying, you know, a man in the middle to do this without any type of delay or lag and they get to keep the coupons by law, which is interesting because that thing's going to yield zero. They can just kind of point at the regulation and say well that's the reason we're not paying you any interest and we get to keep the interest and put it on our bottom line of what our, you know, our company. But then you have this STRC thing with micro strategy happening off in the corner and it's a security. So it doesn't look like, you know, a stable coin. It looks very different. But it's kicking off for all intensive purposes, 10% tax free. Tax free or tax deferred? I should say tax deferred. Better, better yet. And so the fact that it's an equity is kind of strange. So what, what is this that's happening? So when we look at a stablecoin, it's backed by a U.S. treasury that has a coupon of 4 or 5%. And you know, if tether wanted to start paying a portion of that or all of that, they could, if they really, they don't need the compet, they don't need to compete there. They already dominate the market. But let's just play in a world where they're losing market share versus somebody else in the euro dollar system or the banks are starting to take a lot of market share, well then they could start paying in the euro dollar market they could start paying some interest of that 4 or 5% coupon that they're receiving because they're backed by sovereign debt. Okay, what is Michael backing his issuance with? He's backing it with Bitcoin and not. Okay, so you get into. And this framing is going to sound terrible. Okay, but. But effectively he is creating a synthetic dollar that's backed by Bitcoin and not US Treasuries. And so how's he doing that? And I'm going to speak very generically. He's doing it in a 5 to 1 over collateralization. When you look at Bitcoin's volatility, it can be as high as 70 to 80% annualized. And so why is he backing at 5 to 1? Well, it kind of makes sense that he's backing at 5 to 1 when you look at that volatility level. Because if it goes down, if Bitcoin goes down by 80%, it's still fully collateralized one to one. Okay. So these are. This is the. This is the statistics and the math of the volatility of why he's backing it the way he is. I suspect he's never told me this. This is just me kind of playing with some of the numbers. But what's interesting is he's trying to create a stable coin with STRC and keep it pegged at a hundred.
Larry Lippard
Right.
Preston Pysh
Okay. And it's kicking off 10% versus the stablecoin banks. The ones in the US are paying you nothing, and then the ones that are international could pay you 5% and they're fully collateralized by U.S. treasuries. So isn't this kind of neat that we're seeing these. These different vehicles, these different ways that people are trying to tokenize US Dollars, put them into the market, and they're kicking off different yields that in my opinion, are completely sustainable. Okay. When the world does not understand Bitcoin, and the world isn't going to understand Bitcoin for probably a while, they're just going to continue. I mean, if there's one thing I've learned in this space over the decade is people are not going to understand Bitcoin no matter how many times you try to explain it to them. The learning curve is very slow. I go back for Thanksgiving every year and I talk to the family, and they still don't get it. And I don't think they're going to get it anytime soon. Soon. And so will stable coins proliferate? Yes. How are they going to proliferate? I think they're going to proliferate in some really interesting and miraculous ways and it's going to only accelerate the demise of the dollar with more and more time as you get more of these synthetic type vehicles to tokenize. Because where this is going next is you can only buy STRC through a trading account. But let me tell you, there's all these people that are trying to tokenize real world assets and then they're going to tokenize STRC and then that's going to be the kind of the dollar dollar stable coin of choice if it's kicking off 10%. So you can start playing out the incentives here and you can see a world that's pretty interesting with people back in their dollar with Treasuries, people back in their dollar with Bitcoin. Maybe you could even back, maybe you could create an STRC that's backed by Nvidia shares. Right. Like you can do all sorts of crazy things if you're looking at the volatility range and you're, you know, you're putting these products out there on the market. I don't know, I think it's, it's a fun thing that you would think the esteemed institutions would be talking about in their finance and MBA courses, but I suspect they're not correct.
Natalie
Well, not yet. Not yet. I mean, I, I, it's interesting. Yeah, it's interesting to watch the market digest these, these new instruments and it seems like they just, they don't get it yet, but they will, I think.
Preston Pysh
I see, that's where I disagree with you. I don't think they are going to get it. I think they're just going to use it. I think they're just gonna be like, oh, this one pays 10%, I'm a degenerate, like, like trader and I'm just going to hold that. I don't know what the hell it does or how it's backed or anything. I'm just going to buy it.
Natalie
I would love to get both of your takes on why the treasury companies have really underperformed in the last several months. And you know, including even strategy, I think bitcoin's up like 50% and strategies up 7% or so. It usually outperforms like what's going on here with the treasury companies.
Larry Lippard
I'll go first. My view is these treasury companies make sense and they are economic entities that are sensible, really. They're just adding leverage to Bitcoin, you know, with, with the strike product or stretch product is really a brilliant product. And I just learned that it's tax deferred, you know, because it's return of capital, which is really pretty. That's really powerful for the boomer set, right? Yeah, because they can give the stepped up basis, I mean, they'll depreciate down to zero and give it on a stepped up basis to their kids. I think the treasury companies, everyone got ahead of themselves. And Adam came out with the whole notion of, of unlimited accretion forever because you can sell at a 5m NAV and buy stock at or buy the coin at 1 and therefore you're increasing your bitcoin per share. But the assumption he made is that there would be ever new amounts of money coming into the shares. And the M Navs got crazy overvalued. And banks trade at a multiple of their book value. And the reason they do is that they have an asset structure and a liability structure and the assets earn more than the liabilities and so they deserve a premium over the book. And you know, really, I mean, strategy really is just kind of a bank. I mean, they're setting a yield curve based on bitcoin, right? And so, you know, what happened here is everyone got too hyped up on these things. And you know, you had, I think at one point you had Meta planet selling at 8 times m nav and you had many of them selling at 3 to 6 times M nav. And there's no way that those are long term sustainable multiples. I mean, and we're going to find out what they are. I personally kind of think we're going to settle in between 1.3 and 2.2 as a multiple of M Nav is kind of the appropriate amount to pay for the extra earnings that the leverage gives you. And we're also going to see that just because they are levers on Bitcoin, when bitcoin is flat to down, they tend to trade soft. And when bitcoin is running, they're going to. Those M Nav premiums are going to grow and expand. And so I'm a buyer of them right here. I was not a buyer of them at the big multiples of M Nav and I. And I was terrified when I saw on Twitter some of these younger guys who don't think the bitcoin return is high enough, saying, I'm selling all my bitcoin to buy Meta Planet. And I was kind of like, jesus Christ, that's not how you do this bitcoin. I mean, if you want to gamble, you know, if you want to try and get more return than you can get in Bitcoin, fine. But recognize that you're taking risk in doing so and try to understand that they will be cyclical. And you're much better off buying them at 0.7 times M nav. And a few of them are trading there or 1 or 1.1 times m nav and not at 6 times m nav. So. But I think they're here to stay. Probably not all of them will make it. As you know, you're on the board of one and it just got absorbed by another one. And those are good companies, but probably not all of them are good. There'll probably be some that will be mismanaged. I own a lot of strategy, though, by the way. I mean, I'm a big believer in that.
Preston Pysh
I would say. Sorry, Go ahead, Nat.
Natalie
No, go ahead.
Preston Pysh
Oh, I don't want to interrupt you. You're the host, ma'. Am.
Natalie
Well, I was just going to say I think that there will be more consolidations and it's interesting to see the, you know, the trader mobs come out on Twitter. They're really happy when bitcoin's going up and things are going up and then, man, will they.
Larry Lippard
Oh, they'll sabotage down on sale or. As though MSTR has been a bad stock if you've held it for six or seven years. I mean, come on.
Natalie
Right, right.
Preston Pysh
Okay. So bitcoin's price on Christmas last year, 2024, 107,400. Today it's 107,200. So for 10 months, for all intents and purposes, bitcoin's price has just gone completely sideways. And if there's one thing that treasury companies, especially if you're doing it kind of Saylor's way, which is securitizing the bitcoin and issuing preferreds and convertible debt, it's completely based on bitcoin being the engine of growth. And we look at power law and it's saying where we're at in the power law, Bitcoin should be growing at about 40% annualized. And for the last 10 months, Bitcoin's gone completely sideways since Christmas of the. Of last year has gone sideways. So if you're levering yourself against that treasury, and we already said it's five to one levered or whatever, the multiple is that the company's using to ensure that they remain healthy versus what they, their debts versus what bitcoin they got on the balance sheet, if they're trying to keep that peg of 5 to 1 or 4 to 1 or whatever they choose to do, once you kind of hit that and bitcoin goes sideways, or let's say bitcoin even goes down. The treasury company has no transmission mechanism at that point. Right. They can only lever themselves so far until bitcoin, if it's stalling out, you can't lever yourself more because then you're going to become in a precarious situation because you have to make these payments. The dividends or the coupons are the face value of the, the convertible debt back within the five year period of time. So I just look at it very simply. If bitcoin's going sideways or down, like the treasury companies are going to be flapping, it's just kind of a function of how they work. If bitcoin, if we were at 150,000 right now, I think those things would be killing it because they have more firepower to lever themselves even more. So it's a function of how they work. And if people don't understand that going into it, well, I don't know what to tell you. Buyer beware. It's not bitcoin, it's synthetic levered bitcoin.
Larry Lippard
Levered bitcoin.
Preston Pysh
And there's this thing called risk. And if you're not willing to deal with the risks, then I don't know what to tell you. Don't own it.
Natalie
That's right. Great points. Okay, my last question, since we mentioned earlier on the show how undervalued bitcoin is that it should be trading higher. Maybe it will follow gold's outperformance and surprise us. Some people are still predicting like 150,000 or higher this year. We've only got like two months left. What do you guys think?
Larry Lippard
I actually think that's right. I think we'll see probably 140 at the end of December. And I think next year we'll go into the 200, 250 range and that'll probably be the peak of the cycle. And then I think we'll have a drawdown of not as big as the last drawdown, but maybe 40% or something off that. And these are just my guesses. What do I know? I mean, I just. But I'm doing it based on patterns and charts and kind of the history of it all.
Preston Pysh
I think so much of this really depends on the five people sitting in the room clacking on the keys, inserting the liquidity into the system. Yeah, it's really, really difficult to make short term predictions like this. But you know, by end of year, like what's going to happen? Because you know, if they put an extra zero on the end and hit enter like yeah, you could be at 150 plus if they continue to sit here. And he just did 25 bips and he's you know, you know, politically, you know, bucking the system. I mean you could be right where we're at right now or even lower by the end of the year depending on you know, how they kind of add the liquidity. So when I think of how you own this, you got to think in two to four to six year time frames. This is one of the reasons I really do like power laws. I'm kind of assessing where I think we're at according to the power law and I'm looking at where we're at. I think we'd be at 130 by the end of the year and then a year after that it's just going to keep growing at about 40% ish, ish somewhere in there in the markets. What would throw that, that number off is if they come with all this firepower and they put all this liquidity into the system, you're going to exceed these numbers and if they're, if they're not putting it in then you're going to underperform these numbers. But on average when you zoom out, they have to keep sprinkling this. You know, they're printing into the system and on average that's kind of what it's going to.
Larry Lippard
Very well said press. I mean if the big, big print occurs, I mean, you know, Samson's numbers aren't crazy. I mean we could go to four.
Preston Pysh
Yeah.
Larry Lippard
500. I mean easily.
Preston Pysh
Yep. You know, but, but it's all within the volume range.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, yeah. But it all, it really, it would depend upon the big print occurring. I mean recall what happened with COVID Bitcoin was $10,000 when the COVID print occurred. Yeah. Came out of that at 60. It did a 6x. I'm not sure we've still got, you know, we're bigger now. I don't think the firepower is quite as large in terms of multiples but, but could it do a 2-4x from here? Oh yeah, easily if they bring the big print as you're alluding to. No question.
Preston Pysh
Yeah.
Natalie
I'm so much more bearish in my, in my like four or five year outlook because everyone's predicting a million dollars by 2030. And the reason that I just don't see that is because in 2021 we had the all time high in the 60s and four years later we've only really doubled from there. So people are telling me we're gonna like 4x from here. I. I just. It's hard to believe.
Larry Lippard
What's the Power law mean in 2030, Preston? I have it here too.
Preston Pysh
30, I would say it's 450, 000.
Larry Lippard
Right.
Natalie
So it's not a million.
Larry Lippard
Well, no, to get to a million, you'd have to be at a 1.5 standard deviations above. You could easily get there, but you're not.
Preston Pysh
You could, you could be there. You could be there by then, depending on how much they're printing.
Larry Lippard
Right? Yeah. That's the tricky part about all this, is that it, you know, the Power Law, I think, is a great model as a base case. And it varies around that. And the thing is, it's done one and a half, two times two x standard deviations, which, you know, one and a half x standard deviation generally about two x and one or one x standard deviation about two x and one and a half is about three x. You know, it's a base number. Right.
Preston Pysh
Just. Just to kind of tell you the number in 2030 for, like, how high could it be if they. If you were really at the kind of max standard deviation, on the high side, you are at approximately 1.7 the 1.6 million in 2030. And then on the low side, I would say you're.
Larry Lippard
You don't.
Preston Pysh
Yeah, you don't.
Natalie
What's the low side?
Preston Pysh
Pretty low. Kind of like where we're at right now.
Larry Lippard
No, I think. Isn't it like 250? Because if the mean was 450, it should be half that, more or less.
Preston Pysh
Oh, you know what? I'm sorry, I'm looking at a line that's actually low. Give me one second. Yeah, you're.
Larry Lippard
I think it's 250.
Preston Pysh
You're right, Larry. Yeah, you're right.
Larry Lippard
But. But. And that's the tricky part about it, right? I mean, you're right now from 60 to 100 today. Isn't that good? But, but by the way, in that time frame, you had a chance to buy it at 15.
Natalie
I know.
Larry Lippard
Do you know what I mean? I mean, it's. We're so lucky. Yeah. Right. So, you know, I mean, and Preston, as you say, you know, we're flat from last Christmas. Well, true, but actually over the last 12 months, if you measure, you know, we're up like 80%. Because after that Christmas, it came down a lot. So. So, you know, and this actually speaks to what I know you both believe in strongly. As do I, which is dollar cost averaging.
Preston Pysh
Amen. You know, stop, think. Stop looking at the chart.
Larry Lippard
Yeah, I just tell my client, I tell my clients, figure out how much you want to have in bitcoin and buy a fixed amount every week, every month, whatever. Just divide it and, you know, you'll get more when it's cheap, you'll get less when it's expensive. Do that on a consistent basis, keep stacking, and eventually the numbers will get really big.
Preston Pysh
Like, just do it with money that, you know, you're not going to have to like.
Larry Lippard
Well, that's the key, right?
Preston Pysh
It has to be. It has to truly be a free cash flow.
Larry Lippard
I also tell all my clients, you know, the one thing you gotta understand when you buy this is it can go down 50%. You just have to. You have to be prepared for that. And, and you have to think, if that were to happen, I would buy more, not I would sell. Because as we. As we all know, everyone who's hold it for more than four years, you're. You're whole.
Natalie
That is a great message to end the show on. Thank you both so much. I. I was speaking to someone recently who sold most of their bitcoin at 90, and he's gonna buy it back at 70k. He said we'll see. I don't know. That's risky. Don't time the market. Just keep buying. Set it and forget it. Right. Thank you both so, so much. And thank you both for just all the wisdom and mentorship that you offer in the space. I've learned so much from you. Oh, there. There's the book. Go out and get it. Go out and get the big print as well. And Preston' a book, so maybe search for that as well.
Larry Lippard
When's that coming out, Preston? Never.
Natalie
All right.
Preston Pysh
Never.
Larry Lippard
No book. Oh, that. You're all your. Your West Point one. I love that book. Preston wrote his West Point story. It's available. You should buy it and read. It's got some great lessons in it.
Natalie
So we're all authors here.
Larry Lippard
Perfect.
Natalie
All right. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it.
Larry Lippard
Thanks, Nat. Thanks, Preston. See you. See you.
Natalie
Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories. Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss. Miss any new episodes. And if you can turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review, they really help the show grow organically with new listeners. We have a free weekly newsletter. You can sign up@thenewsblock.substack.com this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing should constitute as official investment advice, and you should always do your own research. I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach out@infoalkingbitcoin.com I'll see you next time.
Podcast: Coin Stories
Host: Natalie Brunell
Guests: Preston Pysh (Ego Death Capital), Larry Lepard (Author, "The Big Print")
Episode: "AI Automation and Inflation Fuel Socialism, Is Quantum a Threat to Bitcoin?"
Date: November 1, 2025
This episode dives deep into how global liquidity, AI automation, and inflation are accelerating wealth concentration and social unrest. Natalie, Preston, and Larry explore the feedback loop between monetary policy and populism, the deflationary impact of technology versus the inflationary response of governments, and the growing appetite for socialism. The conversation also unpacks whether quantum computing poses a legitimate existential threat to Bitcoin, and looks toward the future of global reserves, stablecoins, and the role Bitcoin might play.
(00:46 – 04:15, 06:43 – 11:29)
Choppy Markets & The Fed: October’s market was less bullish than hoped due to the end of reverse repo programs, declining bank reserves, and monetary tightening. Liquidity has dried up, which negatively impacts Bitcoin since “liquidity drives number go up” (03:20, Pysh).
Fiscal Calendar Uncertainty: The US fiscal year ends in September. The resulting uncertainty around government budget resolutions and shutdowns leads to market choppiness every October.
QT (Quantitative Tightening) “Ended” & QE (Quantitative Easing) on the Way: Powell’s hints about ending QT in response to market tightness is seen by both guests as an admission of defeat. They debate the semantics (will the Fed even call it “QE”?) but agree the system will require more liquidity infusions, whatever the label.
(15:23 – 27:01)
AI & Workforce Displacement: Both guests foresee millions of jobs lost to AI/robotics in the next decade (ex: 8.8M Uber drivers globally, Amazon’s goal to automate 75% of 1.5M jobs by 2033).
Socialist Responses & Political Shifts: They predict that public pressure will increasingly force governments toward universal basic income (UBI) and other socialist responses, fueled by resentment over inequality heightened by automation. Larry anticipates a “blue team” victory in 2028, UBI, and an explosive fiat crisis, followed by a possible “engineering solution” for money (34:00).
Inflation/Deflation Duality: Scarce, desirable assets (beef, Hamptons real estate) will get more expensive in fiat, while tech-deflationable products/services could fall in price, creating a strange price environment.
(27:01 – 31:51)
Crony Capitalism Critique: The team stresses that the current system is not true capitalism (“crony capitalism” benefits insiders), leading to the wealth gap.
Post-1971 Financialization: Emphasis on how the abandonment of the gold standard (“post-1971 structure”) facilitated US financialization, hollowing out productive capacity and enriching elites.
(31:51 – 42:43)
End of US Dollar Hegemony: There’s a clear move away from the dollar toward gold as a reserve asset for now, due to the perceived risk of US “weaponizing” the dollar system and loss of productive capacity.
Gold as a Stepping Stone to Bitcoin: Central banks favor gold for now because it is familiar and “not scary.” Both guests expect Bitcoin to eventually become the reserve asset, but acknowledge it is a process.
(42:43 – 46:03)
(46:14 – 48:17)
(49:34 – 65:58)
Unpacking the Threat: Preston details why quantum computing is nowhere near an immediate threat — the logical qubit counts don’t line up with the fear, and the development curve is highly uncertain.
Prepping for Upgrade: The Bitcoin community must be proactive (but deliberate and consensus-driven) about testing, debating, and eventually implementing quantum-resistant upgrades.
Tangible Threat Assessment: Both guests, in the end, are not changing their portfolio allocations over quantum. They stress the Bitcoin community's strong incentive and problem-solving resources for future upgrades.
(65:58 – 80:16)
Stablecoins as an Interim Step: Seen primarily as rails for international payments and circumvention of SWIFT/capital controls, not a lasting foundation for global monetary stability. The speakers doubt stablecoins could absorb meaningful amounts of US Treasury supply.
Treasury Companies and Levered Bitcoin: Companies like MicroStrategy (“the original bitcoin bank”) see their performance tied tightly to bitcoin’s price. Multiples got overextended, but will work as “synthetic levered bitcoin” — and are cyclical, with greater risk.
(80:29 – 87:06)
Cycle Projections: Larry predicts $140k by December, $200-250k next year, then a ~40% drawdown. Preston sees end-of-year mostly contingent on how much new liquidity the Fed injects — a big “print” could send Bitcoin dramatically higher.
Long-Term Growth: They reference the “power law” for Bitcoin price, centering on $450k by 2030, with possible outlier moves to $1.5M if monetary debasement ramps up even further.
DCA and Emotional Resilience: Both insist the only safe way is dollar-cost averaging, expecting volatility, and not trying to time the market.
For listeners: Even if you’re new to Bitcoin or macroeconomics, this episode provides a nuanced, candid tour through the world’s most pressing financial paradigm shifts—from the ground floor of Wall Street and Washington to the bleeding edge of technology and the bitcoin protocol.