Tracy Shuchart: The Real Energy War - Venezuela "Oil Theater," AI's Power Grab, Surging Debt, and Why Bitcoin & Hard Assets Outperform

Summary

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Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Episode: Tracy Shuchart: The Real Energy War - Venezuela "Oil Theater," AI's Power Grab, Surging Debt, and Why Bitcoin & Hard Assets Outperform
Date: January 15, 2026
Guest: Tracy Shuchart, Senior Economist at Ninja Trader Live

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deeply into the “real” reasons behind US interventions in Venezuela, the shifting global commodities and energy landscape, and why hard assets—including Bitcoin—look increasingly attractive in a world of runaway debt, AI-driven energy demands, and geopolitical realignment. Tracy Shuchart brings her trademark expertise on energy markets, geopolitics, and asset allocation, and Natalie Brunell steers the conversation toward the implications for investors and ordinary people facing rising costs and global uncertainty.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Venezuela Situation: Beyond “Oil Theater”

• Tracy disputes the mainstream view that recent US intervention in Venezuela is solely about oil.

• National Security Angle: The presence of Russia, Iran, and China in Venezuela is more threatening to US interests than oil access itself.

• Quote:

  “First and foremost, it’s a national security issue because we have seen these groups try to expand beyond the borders of Venezuela... this could pose a problem.”
  — Tracy (04:15)

• Critical Minerals: Venezuela’s deposits are part of the West’s wider scramble to secure supply chains outside of Chinese control. The US is investing directly in North American mining startups to diversify away from Chinese monopoly on processing rare earths.

• Infrastructure Reality: Venezuela’s oil industry is dilapidated, needing $100–200B just to return to half its former output, and oil majors now see huge risk with regime instability and US policy uncertainty.

• Quote:

  “Saying it’s all about the oil—this administration may be a little misguided as far as what it’s really going to take...”
  — Tracy (07:21)

• Timestamp: [01:01]–[08:03]

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2. The Petrodollar, US Dollar Hegemony, and Global Reserve Assets

• No Formal “Oil-Dollar” Pact: No written agreement ever forced oil to be traded exclusively in US dollars. It’s about oil being priced in USD, not traded in it.
• Quote:

  “There’s never been any kind of written agreement... What matters is that it’s priced in the dollar.”
  — Tracy (12:28)

• Geopolitical Implications: Growing use of yuan, rupees, and bartered deals (esp. Russia/China), but the USD remains dominant in pricing. Gold is increasingly important as a neutral reserve asset, with central banks buying aggressively after Western sanctions on Russian assets.
• Quote:

  “Gold is screaming right now... Central banks are buying gold and dumping US Treasuries.”
  — Tracy (15:03)

• Timestamp: [11:44]–[18:03]

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3. The Global Move to Gold and Hard Assets

• Central banks were net sellers of gold up until 2010, but switched to buying after the 2014/2022 sanctions era, fearing their reserves could be seized.
• For Western governments, gold buying is happening via treasuries, not central banks (at least in the US).
• Revaluing gold to address US debt is an idea discussed among analysts, but Tracy is skeptical it could happen “with the powers that be.”
• Quote:

  “If you reprice gold... there are a lot of problems with that, and you’d have to have the right people in place. I just don’t see that happening right now.”
  — Tracy (18:11)

• Timestamp: [16:19]–[19:00]

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4. Stablecoins, Hyperinflation, and Bitcoin as a National Reserve

• In hyperinflating economies (Iran, Venezuela), stablecoin demand is soaring at the grassroots, while governments are using Bitcoin to evade sanctions.
• Quote:

  “We are seeing people try to get currency that is a little beyond the purview of the regimes eroding their buying power... governments such as Russia and Venezuela also putting money into Bitcoin.”
  — Tracy (20:35)

• Venezuela rumored to have up to 60,000 BTC, but evidence is unconfirmed.*
• Gold Reserves: Maduro has moved Venezuelan gold to Qatar for safekeeping—a sign of the regime’s lack of trust in holding assets domestically.
• Quote:

  “He’s been moving Venezuela’s gold offshore again... there are a lot of reasons that could be, it could be personal... or you’re worried somebody was going to seize it.”
  — Tracy (22:51)

• Timestamp: [20:35]–[24:16]

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5. The Future of Venezuela and Regime Change Tactics

• Despite US intervention, real regime change seems unlikely. The vice president (and former energy minister) remains in place, suggesting only superficial leadership shifts.
• Tracy suggests the situation mirrors US-backed coups historically but with murky outcomes for Maduro (“He didn’t look that scared being captured”).
• Quote:

  “That pretty much says not really a regime change... That doesn’t really scream change.”
  — Tracy (24:16)

• Timestamp: [24:16]–[27:03]

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6. Broader Geopolitics, War Risk, and Military Capability

• US military spread thin globally, making full-scale war less likely, but there’s ongoing conflict (bombing Syria, presence in Asia and South America).
• If the US intervened in Venezuela “for oil,” China has cover for its own aggressive moves (e.g., Taiwan).
• Quote:

  “We’re pretty much spread very thin. And so, I don’t think anybody wants a huge war with the United States... the next big area, if any, would be with China and Taiwan.”
  — Tracy (30:13)

• Timestamp: [29:32]–[31:45]

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7. Market Bifurcation, Surging Debt & AI’s Energy Bottleneck

• There’s a stark divide in markets: asset owners have thrived, but affordability for the average American has collapsed.
• Credit markets face latent risk; Tracy doesn’t think the sovereign debt crisis is over for any country.
• AI & Energy: AI’s resource demand is “scary”—data centers require vast investments, borrowed capital, and critical minerals (silver, copper, tin) that are in short supply.
• Energy sector (including natural gas) is “left for dead” but offers opportunity as supply chain needs explode for AI infrastructure.
• Quote:

  “Nobody’s really factored in what this [AI buildout] means for energy going forward... There’s tons of opportunities in energy in general.”
  — Tracy (32:17, 35:06)

• Timestamp: [31:45]–[36:38]

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8. Bitcoin in the New Macro Landscape

• Bitcoin has underperformed gold recently, likely due to institutional and ETF-related flows.
• End-of-year selling by institutions to manage books and ETF rules create downward pressure.
• “I would put bitcoin in that basket with commodities... once it starts going, it goes. Could it double, could it triple? Sure, why not?” — Tracy (38:18)
• Tracy’s a relative newcomer to Bitcoin (bought in ~2019) and “just holds it.”
• Quote:

  “It's a different kind of asset, but I think we will start seeing flows come back into [Bitcoin].”
  — Tracy (37:53)

• Timestamp: [36:38]–[38:40]

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9. The Material vs. Financial Ledger

• Reference to Luke Gromen’s concept of “two ledgers”:
  • Material/physical: commodities, energy, “stuff you need to actually make things.”
  • Financial/capital: mostly “printed out of thin air,” but consequences emerging.
• Shift in market narrative as investors realize “you can’t print copper, oil, or data center hardware.”
• Quote:

  “We all got high on NASDAQ... but we forgot we actually need stuff to build this out.”
  — Tracy (36:38)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Critical minerals—rare earths are not rare at all. But they [China] mine most of them and, more importantly, process most of them all.”
  — Tracy (05:43)

• “We generally don’t just go into another country and grab their resources for just that sole purpose. Although you could make the argument for Iraq, but that was a whole different situation.”
  — Tracy (01:40)

• “Some companies are owed $12 billion in unpaid arbitration awards. Halliburton had to get—was kicked out in 2019 because of Trump sanctions... Oil majors are very apprehensive.”
  — Tracy (06:24)

• “It’s about who can control, process, and source these minerals. Global supply chain politics is way beyond just oil.”
  — Natalie (09:32)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:01]–[08:03] — Venezuela, national security, and critical minerals
• [11:44]–[18:03] — The petrodollar and the shift to gold
• [20:35]–[24:16] — Stablecoins, Bitcoin reserves, and Venezuela's assets
• [24:16]–[27:03] — Regime change and US intervention tactics
• [29:32]–[31:45] — Military risk, US capability, and global war prospects
• [31:45]–[36:38] — AI's energy demands, commodities outlook, and market bifurcation
• [36:38]–[38:40] — Bitcoin’s recent performance and Tracy’s approach
• [40:05]–[41:00] — Material vs. financial ledger, macro reflections

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Summary Takeaways

• Venezuela’s crisis isn’t just “about oil”—national security, critical minerals, and pushing back against adversaries in the Western Hemisphere all play central roles.
• The petrodollar system is less relevant by the year; pricing in dollars still dominates, but gold is surging as a neutral asset reserve.
• AI’s infrastructural needs will massively impact demand for minerals and energy; investors should pay attention to these “hard asset” bottlenecks.
• US military power is stretched thin, making large-scale new wars unlikely in the near term, but regional conflicts endure.
• Bitcoin, commodities, and other hard assets are likely to outperform in a world of currency debasement and surging public/private debt.

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Closing Thoughts

Tracy Shuchart calls for vigilance and strategic allocation, especially in commodities and Bitcoin, as the old playbook for economic and geopolitical security is breaking down. Her optimism about hard assets, skepticism on fiat debt sustainability, and eye for market bottlenecks (especially with AI and energy) offer actionable, timely insights for anyone concerned about the future of money and global stability.

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Recommended:

• Tracy’s Substack on Venezuela ("The Venezuelan Oil narrative is pure theater”)
• Luke Gromen’s work on the “two ledgers”
• Keep watching the interplay of commodities, energy, and digital assets as new macro realities unfold

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Transcript

[A]

I really think hard assets are the way to be. That would include bitcoin. Again, back to energy, I think everybody's left it for dead. Nobody's really factored in what this means for energy going forward in AI, which offers huge opportunities in, say, natural gas. And I think there's tons of opportunities in energy in general.

[B]

Hey, everyone. Welcome back to the show. Joining me this week is Tracy Shucart. She is a senior economist for Ninja Trader Live, and she put out a phenomenal substack all about Venezuela. It was titled the Venezuelan Oil narrative is pure theater. If you haven't read it, it's linked in the show notes. Make sure to get it. She is an analyst in energy markets. She talks about gold, commodities, and everything that's happening right now, which it seems, seems to just be about global conflict. Tracy, thank you so much for joining me.

[A]

Absolutely. Thank you. I'm looking, looking forward to the conversation.

[B]

Well, let's start with Venezuela. You put out this really interesting newsletter, and it was really about the fact that we're hearing politicians say that the reason we went in and got Maduro is because of oil. But you're saying maybe it's a little more than that. Maybe we should look at who's operating in that region. We should look at the national security angle. And you actually said that the Pentagon kind of made this decision long before Trump locate it. So give me the layout of your views.

[A]

Yeah. And so obviously the president has been talking about the oil and we did it all for the oil. But, you know, I think in his mind it might be all about the oil, but I don't really think that's generally how this all happened. Right. I mean, the Pentagon has kind of been talking about this for before. They wouldn't have really gone ahead if it was just about oil. We generally don't just go into another country and grab their resources for just that sole purpose. Although you could make the argument for Iraq, but that was a whole different situation. But as far as Venezuela is concerned, you know, first, I think there are internal threats in our backyard, and that would be basically Russia, Iran and China all operating within the country and having a very strong hold there. And that's generally getting very uncomfortable as the years go on in our backyard. And so I think first and foremost, it's a national security issue because we have seen these groups kind of try to expand beyond the borders of Venezuela and other countries. And so this could pose a problem. Now, China controls a lot of natural resources there and has given Venezuela a lot of money. In the past, a lot of loans in the past, they're getting paid back from their oil purchases. Same situation with Russia, who's helped them out a lot because they're both kind of countries that have been pushed aside by the rest of the world, so to speak, particularly since 2022, as you know. And so this is a huge problem. In addition, you have IRGC troops in the ground, on the ground in Venezuela. That is also very uncomfortable because IRGC is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They're sort of out of the purview of the country in the respect that they are kind of the rebel group within the army there, so. And kind of known as a terrorist organization. And so we have a lot of things going on there. We also have the fact that they have a lot of critical minerals. As you know, that's been a huge focus of this administration because we have China, who basically holds. Well, first of all, critical minerals, rare earths are not rare at all. That said, they mine most of them and more, and mostly they. They process most of them all. Now, this is a huge problem. The whole world is looking to get away from supply chains of those critical minerals from China because, as we know, they threatened us earlier this year. They withheld magnets not only to us, but also to the eu. And so we have been trying to kind of move these supply chains away from China and find other areas, particularly in South America and Africa. That said, again, China also has a very huge stronghold in African mining. And so this is, you know, we've been trying to get. We, as in the west, has been kind of trying to get a foothold in Africa. And I actually wrote about this a while ago and said it might be a little too late for that. This was during the Obama administration that I had actually written about this. But so we are looking to diversify supply chains. I think critical minerals are a much bigger deal. As we know, this government has not only invested directly into critical mineral companies like lithium Americas and MP, but the Pentagon has specifically given $423 billion to North American companies, including very small ones like New Mo Van Graphic. That is in. In Quebec, a tiny graphite company you've never heard of has received money straight from the Pentagon in order to secure these minerals for our country. So if you take all of that into account and the fact that Venezuela's oil infrastructure is completely dilapidated, I mean, the country's stolen everything they can. They went from 3.5 million barrels a day to about 750 now after the last 25 just came off the Oro mine area. And so looking at how much would be needed, which is 100, $200 billion worth of investments in that country just to get them back up and running maybe to halfway to the there where they were before. And that's going to take years to handle. And so I think what we saw when President Trump met with the oil executives just last week and you had, you know, you had, you had. Who did we have? We had, you know, Chevron. We had what ex was Darren woods from ExxonMobil said then as well as in investable, you know, ConocoPhillips said they are still owed $12 billion in unpaid arbitration awards. And so Halliburton had to get was kicked out in 2019 because of TR Trump sanctions. So a lot of these companies are very apprehensive because we have to, you have to look at it this in the eyes of a CEO of these companies, they're looking at 10 to 20 year time horizons. And President Trump unfortunately is going, fortunately, unfortunately, however you want to look at it is out in 36 months. And so that is not very settling for an oil company because everything could change in three years, right? And as far as another administration comes in, they change all the rules and they put sanctions back on, you know, who knows what could happen. And so I think really saying it's all about the oil, I think this administration may be a little misguided as far as, you know, what it's really going to take to get this oil industry up and running to just half of what it was before. And so I really think it more has to do with with what the Pentagon more aligns itself with right now is the long story.

[B]

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[A]

To pay in Bitcoin instead of credit cards.

[B]

We are saving about 50% in our processing fees. This led to more support from Bitcoin users and a 10% revenue boost. Getting started is easy. Sign [e-mail] or integrate the API in hours. Start accepting Bitcoin today. Download Speed at Speed app Coinstories or the QR code on the screen and use code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats. Yeah, the administration seems to be trying to go warp speed when it comes to re industrializing and things don't work like that. You can print money out of thin air, but you can't just create the massive infrastructure needed to do things like refine and process rare earths. On this show we've been covering a bit of the rare earths narrative. The fact that our military has been really hollowed out and we really do rely on China for so many of these critical supplies. They have a monopoly and thus a choke point point that they can try to strangle us with. And so it seems like based on your writing you saw a sort of nexus forming with China having a strong supply chain in that area with cobalt and different rare earths that they were processing and mining from Venezuela. You have Iran that I believe was manufacturing drones and essentially within shooting range of Miami. And then you had military officers coming in from Russia. Right. So like our three adversaries right there. And I'm assuming, assuming the Pentagon and the CIA were working on this for possibly a year or longer. And then how does this work? Because I thought the chain of command was ultimately the President. Right. But it sounds like what you're saying is the Pentagon basically went, you got to go in and do this. And then. And then President Trump said, okay, yeah.

[A]

I think they were pushed that way. I mean this has been under the purview of the Pentagon for years now. This is not anything new. You know, we had sanctions when President Trump came and he put sanctions on Venezuela. We have known that those groups are operating in the region. It's just that they keep growing. And so I think it just came to a point where perhaps the president said, I want the oil there. And they were like, okay, well, this is a great chance. Here we go.

[B]

Okay. So I mean, the oil narrative, you mentioned that that's sort of easy for the American public to digest. It feels familiar. You can relate to it when it comes to the economy and gas prices. And there is a portion of. Sure. That has to do with the petrodollar and oil denominated in dollars rather than yuan. Right. Can you talk about that? Like, what aspect of, of this is really about maintaining the strength of the US Dollar hegemony via oil?

[A]

Yeah, I think, you know, I think let's go back to, you know, I know that that's been a big narrative. And there was a lot of rumors going around about OPEC was dropping the dollar for oil and there was some big agreement in 72. There has never been an agreement between, not a written agreement, an unsaid agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States that they were only going to use dollars. You have to understand that company was started, I mean, America, America, Ramco is American and Saudi Arabia oil company, that's how it started in the 1930s. And so though our companies have been linked together in their country, so it's. We've always used the dollar. But again, there's never been any kind of written agreement. I know it was going, going all over Twitter at some point a couple years ago, but that's just not the case now. Let's move forward. So now really, the thing is it doesn't really matter what you trade oil in. And it is traded in yuan and it is traded in rupees and it is traded in other currencies outside of the dollar. What matters is that it's priced in the dollar. And that is what it's important because you're not going to have people, most people aren't going to buy oil in yuan, even though we've seen, you know, some of that happen between say Russia and China, obviously because of all the sanctions Russia is under. Under. And they have some kind of bartering deals going on too with that. And if you look at natural gas globally, it's priced in everything. We have different contracts for all different kinds of oil. We have, you know, Contracts placed in euro, we have contracts priced in yen, we have contracts priced in the US and so. And then a lot of other sub markets. Those are the three top markets that it's traded in. And so it's not really about energy so much or not energy so much being traded in another currency. It's just that they like it trade. They like it that it's cool that it's in dollars. Because most of the time if it's in dollars and I want to give you, you on for your oil, right, Natalie, I want to buy it, but I only have you on. But it's priced in dollars. You're still gonna have to get the equivalent of yuan for those dollars, right? And so there's a dollar exchange happening no matter what around that. And so the difference just comes in when you, are you, are you paying with Swift or not? If you're not paying with Swift because you're paying in another currency, then you avoid kind of the Federal Reserve taking a piece of that. I mean, it's all a big currency play. But I don't think it's. I, I don't think the petrodollar is, you know, as important as it once was, to be honest with you. I think other things, I think other modes of exchange have been more becoming more and more important, particularly if you look at something like gold. Gold is screaming right now, right? Because central banks are buying gold and they're dumping US Treasuries, right? And they're looking at all the geopolitical issues going on right now. And you even have, you know, silver bid. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. So that's like a double whammy for, for that one. And then of course, you have platinum and palladium kind of getting that sympathy bit alongside. And plus some of the EV narratives aren't playing out as we once thought that they were. And so we're going to need more catalytic converters. And so that's helped get those industrial metals a bit. And, and platinum I guess you could consider a precious metal too. But it's like the redheaded stepchild of the precious metal world, right, as far as how the monetary people think. But so I think that it's really not preserving so much that dollars are necessarily traded. Are oils necessarily traded in dollars? I think it's more important that it's priced in dollars than anything else.

[B]

That's really interesting. I did want to talk to you about gold because we see a massive bid for it. I think it has way longer to Run. Some people think it's been a little frothy. But I hear other analysts predicting that we could see in the next 10 years like $10,000 per ounce gold. I would love to get your thoughts on that because recently I think gold exceeded US Treasuries in foreign FX reserves as well.

[A]

So. Yeah, absolutely. And really interesting thing is I think gold has much higher to go. I don't think any geopolitical issues are done by any stretch of the imagination, particularly if, you know, if we are on this fourth turning, that means a lot of change going on in the world. And so you're going to be looking at buying gold. And again, you know, we really started seeing central banks up until about 2010, banks were seller. 2010, 2000, the banks, central banks sold their gold. They were selling their gold. Suddenly 2010, they started buying some gold. Not a lot, but, you know, we started a little bit. And then 2022 came along and we seized Russia's assets as well as the EU did as well. And I think that got a lot of people very nervous, a lot of central banks very nervous. And so you've seen them buying a lot of gold. And what's interesting is now we're seeing Western countries starting to buy gold, particularly Poland starting to wake up and buy some more gold. Italy is buying gold. And so we're seeing other countries that are starting to buy gold. And for people that are in the United States, the Federal Reserve is not in charge of gold purchases. The U.S. treasury is. If you're wondering why our central bank is not buying gold yet.

[B]

No, it's been really fascinating to see. Are you one of the analysts that believe that we're ultimately going to revalue gold and address some of our debt in that way, Our debt to gdp?

[A]

I think that would take a very. I think. I think the powers that be right now would definitely not like that to happen because they would lose control of the dollar. Right. If you kind of reprice it. So I think it would. I think it would be something that would be interesting to happen if they did reprice gold, particularly, you know, United States holdings, and we're gonna fix our debt that way. I think there are a lot of problems with that, and I think that you would have to have the right people in place. And I just don't see that happening right now. But I would not, you know, I would not brush it off. I've talked to Luke Groman about that before and his thoughts on that. And so I know that a lot of people are Talking about that, I just don't know if I 100% can buy that right now.

[B]

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[A]

Yeah. What's interesting is, is that, you know, if we look at conflict countries particularly, we'll take the top two right now that happen to be Iran and Venezuela. What we're seeing is a huge uptick in stablecoin usage because their currencies are hyperinflating. Venezuela has been for a while. And Iran, you know, they have 42.4% inflation. Food inflation is over 60%. That's just happened in the last few months, that it's just exploded forward. So, so we are seeing people try to not, you know, get currency that is a little beyond the purview of the the regimes that are in power that are eroding their particular buying power of their currency. So they'd ra something Like a stable coin, particularly US Dollar that's going to hold its value a lot, a lot more. What's interesting is though, if we look at bitcoin, we're seeing more of these governments buy bitcoin in order to avoid sanctions and in order to trade. Because, you know, we've had sanctions on and off for Iran for 25 years, on and off. And so they're kind of used to that. They've kind of mastered the way around the sanctions. They used to use gold actually to get around sanctions. Then they got caught. It was a big deal between Hungary and them and they got caught 10 years ago. But now they are using, you know, I think the Iranian governments bought over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it does for a government that's not generally has not invested in something like, like a cryptocurrency like bitcoin. So that is interesting. We're also seeing, you know, governments such as Russia and, and Venezuela also putting money into bitcoin.

[B]

Yeah, I saw in the news that potentially Venezuela has like 60,000 bitcoin in its reserves and we might potentially sees that. Are you hearing any truth to that?

[A]

Well, see, I think that's rumors right now. I don't know. I know we went in and technically, you know, I think it's still early to say we actually seized their oil. So, you know, I don't like to get ahead of myself, but I don't really see how they could. You can't. I don't see how they can do that. Let's just put it that way. I think they would, they could move it to another wallet. They can move it, they could move it offshore, some out. I mean, you know, Maduro's been actually moving all of Venezuela's gold reserves to Qatar over the last year and a half, which is really interesting if you, you know, you could go down really, you could go down some crazy conspiracy theories on that. But yes, he's been moving Venezuela's gold offshore again. So I'm not, you know, there are a lot of reasons that could be, it could be personal reason. I don't know. I'm gonna skip country and at least have gold. Or you worried somebody, somebody was going to seize it, but you know, it is moved to Qatar just, you know, just as a little offhand, FYI.

[B]

So what do you think is going to happen now? What do you think is going to ultimately happen with Maduro but also within the country? It doesn't sound like they're going to bring in Machado, who has been in Norway. Right. It looks like the CIA has kind of had a grip on the area and they're going to sort of place the leader that they want. What do you think is going to happen?

[A]

Yeah, I mean, the mere fact that they, they didn't put in Machado, they just left the vice president. Right. That, that pretty much says not really a regime change. Right. I mean, not entirely. Although she was ahead of their energy ministry and knows a lot about the energy infrastructure in that country. So that was kind of the excuse of the Trump administration use. But I think that, that, that doesn't really scream change. I think we'll have to see kind of what happens with that. But, you know, so far, you know, that is not much change. And so I don't know if, you know, and I don't know if there was a deal with Maduro because to say if you agree with us, we'll give you some sort of deal. If you remember, you know, we did this with, in Panama with Noriego. Right. We, somebody asked me have we ever literally gone into a country and captured their leader? And I said, well, mostly we just fund coups and they do kind of the dirty work. But we in Panama, we did that in Panama with the subsequent capture of Noriega in 1990. February 3, 1990. Right. Which is really interesting. I mean, his capture was a little bit different. He fled to the Vatican. So we had to go to the Vatican to go find him. So we do have a precedent of, you know, of doing that before. Just so everybody knows that story, go read up on that story. It's crazy if you have time and we have time to go into it. But rabbit hole. So yeah, really. So we have, we have done that before. So bringing back that back to the current situation with Maduro now, Noriega didn't cooperate the US Government and then since, you know, died in jail. But you know, there could be, I mean, Maduro didn't look this, and this sounds odd, but Maduro didn't look that scared being captured. Right. He's got his thumbs up. He's got. So I don't know if there's some sort of deal for him and maybe he gets some light sentence or he go, I don't know what's going on. I just think the whole thing is very strange. Not to go down conspiracy length. But there are some things to think about there. And it wouldn't shock me if he cooperated with the government, if he got some sort of Deal, whether that be a life sentence or, you know, exiled to another country or what, whatever that may be. But we'll have to. To see what happens.

[B]

So if you're watching this and you're America first and, you know that this was a bad guy, they, you know, that he should be out. He was a narco dealer, and he, you know, caused the starving and impoverishment of all these people and the death of. Of a lot of descendants. And then you're saying, also, we don't want China and Iran and Russia in there. Is this like a net good? Should we. Should people be looking at this as a positive that we went in and did this?

[A]

Well, I think it's a net positive eventually, for we really have to see who is the next leader and how this all plays out. But I think it's a net positive. I mean, if you look at the United States, I live in Florida. I mean, the Venezuelans here were thrilled. I mean, some of them were like, I can go back home now. I, you know, I have had to leave my family there. I'm here making money. I'm sending it back to my family because can. You can't make money in the country. And, you know, they're like, yeah, I can. I can go home now, hopefully, and, you know, get my life back and be with my family again. So I think, you know, judging from what people from that country are saying, they're very thrilled about the situation and, you know, as they should be. I mean, it's been. It's been a repressive regime. Inflation is ridiculously and horrible. Nobody can, you know, work to live there. And so hopefully we can bring some real change to, or see some real change to that country.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, the Bolivar became world famous. Like, you basically light them on fire, they're worth absolutely nothing. And we've talked about it a lot on this show with bitcoin. I know you're writing a piece on Iran. Can you share a little bit more? Because people are watching these protests break out, and I think it's just. It's hard to make sense out of what's happening and what the US Might, might do.

[A]

Yeah, I don't really. I. I haven't really completed kind of the geopolitical part of it yet. And really, just looking at it from an oil standpoint, which is, you know, the situation's just as bad as Venezuela, really. I mean, so I don't think that we would go in there for oil, though. I think. I think that's totally different. I'm just doing a kind of an overview on what the situation, oil situation is in that country. I haven't really gotten to the geopolitical part of that yet, so I don't really have much to tell at this point because I'm still working on it and I kind of want to wait until it's out.

[B]

I can't wait to read it. I know that a lot of people who watch this and other macroeconomic or geopolitical shows, they're worried that a massive war could break out. But when I dig into sort of the, the military industrial complex and again, things like these rare earths, it sounds like we are incapable of doing that, that we would deplete our equipment pretty quickly. Quickly. And that almost kind of guarantees us peace, at least in the near term, because to our earlier points, it would take like 15, 20 years for us to build up capacity again to be sort of a powerhouse in being able to manufacture things for national security. Do you agree with that or are you someone who thinks, no, we could enter some type of violent conflict with boots on the ground?

[A]

Well, I, you know, you have to understand the US Is involved in violent conflict with boots on the ground. I mean, we're still bombing Syria, to be honest with you. So we, you know, we do have, you know, the problem with our current military situation is, is that we're spread too thin and, and we don't have the buildup that we do, but we are spread very, very thin. Right. We are on, we're in near Taiwan and Japan. We're in South America, we're in the Middle East. I mean, you know, we're pretty much spread very thin. And so I don't think that the administration, I don't think anybody wants any huge war with the United States. Well, I don't, I think we don't want a huge war with anybody, hopefully, but I don't. I mean, I think the next big area, conflict area, if any, would be with China and Taiwan. Because if we just went to Venezuela because we wanted their oil, and again, I don't agree with that narrative. But, you know, if that's what the world is saying and that's what everybody's buying or, you know, at least that's what the administration is saying, then that that really means China has every excuse to do what they want. Right.

[B]

That's a good point. What else are you watching right now in markets? Because so much is in flux, I feel like it's odd for the average American who might be struggling. The affordability is through the Roof. You almost can't afford anything today, but yet they're touting a great economy and the stocks have hit all time highs and certain sectors are doing really well. And arguably you own assets, you have killed it the last five years, but there's this total bifurcation. So what else are you watching and what are the cracks that maybe you're seeing?

[A]

There are bifurcations definitely happening in the market. I'm still don't think that the credit markets are out of water yet. We had that little hit of some huge fallouts last year with that automobile parts company and whatever. I. But I don't think, I don't think we're totally out of the woods yet. I don't think a sovereign debt crisis is out of the woods yet for any country. It could happen at any time. You know, I think we're seeing a lot of things going on. You have Japanese yields blowing out right now. That's going to change a whole lot of flows, you know, as far as the carry trade is concerned. And what does that fallout look like? Do they keep raising rates? How, how much do those spreads, you know, blow out? How much, how high do those yields go? Is the carry trade gone? I mean, I think there's a lot of things happening in the markets that are big, you know, shift. So obviously I am very focused on commodities, I always have. But I think that, you know, I've been talking about gold and silver and platinum for, you know, years now. But I think what's really interesting, I think there is going to be a lot of opportunities in the energy sector that's been kind of left for dead this year given the AI build out, which again, I'm worried about all of the money that they're going to have to borrow, all the corporate debt they're going to have to issue because of these data centers. Because it's really scary. Now. These companies used to be in profit and now they're at the point they have to issue corporate debt in order to spend as much money as they want. For this. I build out what does that look like? Who's buying, who's going to buy the debt? What are the yields like on that debt? Are they going to push yields higher all around? I mean, there's just a lot of questions in the credit market. And so I really think hard assets are the way to be. That would include bitcoin. You know, I think anything kind of outside of credit markets, debt and even, even the regular equity markets. So I'm very focused on hard assets. All around. Again, back to energy. I think that, I think everybody's left it for dead. Nobody's really factored in what this, what this means for energy going forward in AI and so which offers huge opportunities in say natural gas. And I think there's tons of opportunities in energy in general. And I still think if you look at something like the junior miners for gold, silver, platinum also still look like they have room to run maybe a little more enticing to me right now than the majors.

[B]

Well, it seems like you're identifying one of the bottlenecks with all the data centers that we're going to need to build out. Right. It's that energy component and it's very, very difficult to of this online. The chips are almost becoming obsolete. Right. While they're waiting to build these actual data centers and we've seen a slowdown and so is that what you're, you're really referring to and being able to get the capital in order to build these out?

[A]

Well, yeah, absolutely. And you have to think of all of the critical minerals that you need to build these out. You need a lot of silver. Right. And these chips are as you said, outdated very quickly. You need silver for that, you need tin for that, you need copper to build these data centers for the cooling systems, for the heating systems, for the, for the copper wires. You know how much copper wire goes into one data center? It's like miles and miles and miles and miles and miles. Miles. And so I think that's where, where people are still not 100 woken up to yet. I mean silver still trading well below where I think it should be trading given the industrial properties of that metal as well as monetary metal. So I think copper, silver, energy markets, natural gas going forward is going to be where people go, oh yeah, we forgot, we forgot about that part of the AI data center equation. We all got high on, you know, nasdaq. Yeah, right. We all got high on the stocks but we forgot we actually need stuff to, to build this out.

[B]

Yeah, well, in Bitcoin being essentially an energy backed form of money, it's been interesting to see it underperform. It was originally kind of part of that debasement trade and we hit an all time last October but since then we've, we've really dropped like an anchor. What do you think is holding Bitcoin back?

[A]

You know, I think we, I think some of that has to do with end of the year institutional flows. Now you have, you know, Bitcoin Ether, ETFs where didn't have Those before. That's a lot of the institutional flows. I think also towards the last quarter of the year, people start cutting things that maybe start moving even a little bit adversely against them because they want the books to look good because they all want their bonuses. And so you kind of have institutional selling and you, and because of how the ETFs are structured there, if the price goes down, they're forced to sell. They have to because they have to rebalance their ETFs all the time. All right. And I think that just becomes kind of a giant drag on bitcoin as well. I think it's a new year. And again, I would put bitcoin in that basket with the commodities basket. I mean, it's, it's a different kind of asset. But I, where I think that we will start seeing flows come back into.

[B]

How long have you been investing in bitcoin and where do you see the price going potentially in the near term?

[A]

So I'm not very long. I'm a total late comer. Sorry, guys.

[B]

No, it's great. It's always early.

[A]

Probably like five years ago I bought, you know, started buying some bitcoin. Now I just kind of have like a, like a recurring little buy. I don't trade it. I just hold it.

[B]

That's great.

[A]

So, but you know, I, I, I would, it's kind of out of my pervy. I don't know how high that it's going, but I think that, you know, once it starts going, it's, you know, it, it goes and so no. Could it double? Could it triple? Sure, why not? I think certainly could.

[B]

That's great to hear. Yeah. And absolutely. I mean, it's been interesting to see its performance because usually gold leads and then bitcoin just rips and does really significantly better than gold. But we haven't seen that yet. So I think we've got a nice little Runway ahead of us. Anything that we haven't covered that you maybe want to dig into a little bit more?

[A]

No, I mean, really, I think that again, you know, for people, for investors out there really start looking at some of the commodity sector, obviously bitcoin, always. Because I think there's a lot of opportunity there that people are overlooking. And I think that once people sort of catch on that we are going to need more of these metals and minerals and energy, they're going to, you're going to see some rotation money out of that. Plus, you know, as soon as we start seeing how much debt, how much debt these hoodies are going to. We've already seen a little bit, but, you know, if they're really talking $3 trillion over the next few years, Booty's just put out a report this morning that gets kind of scary. And, you know, if you're investing in that company, are they going to be successful enough to. To pay it back? Are they, you know, how. How much debt are you willing to let these people get, you know, in a hole for that? They start underperforming. So. So just keep that in mind.

[B]

Yeah, it's really interesting. I was just reading Luke Groman's last newsletter, and one of the sections was about how there's essentially these two ledgers that are emerging, and the material ledger, the physical ledger, is becoming more important because again, you can't print that side out of thin air. It's all the commodities, it's the energy, it's the things that we need to actually make, the stuff that we all use and rely on. And then on the other side, that capital, the. The financial ledger, it's easier to print. But now we've seen sort of the consequences of us printing all of this out of thin air and all the debt we've accumulated. So it's going to be interesting to see how these forces sort of converge this year especially. So, Tracy, thank you so much. Your writing is so great. Again, I highly recommend everyone check out her substack and hopefully we'll have you back on the show. It's exciting to know that you're a bitcoiner.

[A]

Well, yes, absolutely. I would love to. Thank you.

[B]

Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories. Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss any new episodes. If you can, turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review, they really help the show grow organically with new listeners. We have a free weekly newsletter. You can sign [e-mail] this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing should constitute as financial investment advice, and you should always do your own research. I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach my team at info at talkingbitcoin. Com. I'll see you next time.