The first place many people looked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Taiwan, long in the sights of the communist government of mainland China, which has vowed to absorb the island nation. If bigger countries were once again subsuming smaller neighbors, what could keep an ever-stronger China from going to war with Taiwan? And will it be the tripwire to sparking a third world war, this time with the United States and China as the main players?

According to the Hoover Institution’s Eyck Freymann, Taiwan is where the uneasy peace between the United States and China will be tested—and maybe broken. In Beijing’s terms, “reunification” is inevitable. American military strength has preserved peace and stability for decades, but its advantages are eroding. Freymann says Beijing has found critical gaps in U.S. strategy and is working to squeeze, isolate and coerce Taiwan into submission without firing a shot. If deterrence fails, the consequences of a Taiwan crisis could be catastrophic, perhaps plunging the global economy into chaos, shattering U.S. alliances, and allowing China to dominate the region and reshape the world order.

Freymann explores this nightmare scenario and how to avoid it in his new book Defending Taiwan, presenting an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. He draws on untranslated Chinese sources, cutting-edge military and economic analysis, and deep historical research to argue that Washington’s deterrence strategy must extend beyond conventional military power and familiar threats of mutually assured destruction; America must work with allies to develop a bold new vision of technological and economic statecraft—and a plan to secure its interests if deterrence fails. He says the United States can deter China’s full range of strategic options. but to do so it must integrate its military strength, economic leverage, technological leadership, and diplomatic influence into a single, coherent plan to prevent war.

Join us to hear a new grand strategy for ensuring a lasting stable U.S.-China relationship—and to preventing World War III.

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Eyck Freymann: Defending Taiwan