Podcast Summary: Joe Studwell on Africa, Asia, and What Development Actually Requires
Podcast: Conversations with Tyler
Host: Tyler Cowen (Mercatus Center, George Mason University)
Guest: Joe Studwell
Date: February 18, 2026
Overview:
In this illuminating episode, Tyler Cowen interviews journalist and development expert Joe Studwell, author of the acclaimed How Asia Works and the newly released How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World's Last Developmental Frontier. Their conversation ranges widely across developmental challenges and prospects in Africa, comparisons with Asia, the roles of governance, population density, manufacturing, and the impact of history and policy. The tone is deeply analytical but accessible, with both optimism and skepticism brought to bear.
Main Themes and Key Insights
1. Population Density and African Development
- Studwell challenges common wisdom by arguing that Africa’s low population density, rather than just poor governance or conflict, is a core developmental problem. Epidemic disease has depressed population, and "people are the key input in a poor country" (03:56).
- On Nigeria as an outlier: Despite higher density and resources, ethnic divisions and underperformance persist, but areas like Lagos thrive due to density and entrepreneurship. (01:15–03:56)
“In reality, the biggest problem Africa has had...is having population density, which in 1960 was 1/5 that of Asia as a whole and 1/7 what it was in East Asia.” — Joe Studwell (01:51)
2. Resource Wealth and Outliers
- Botswana’s success, as a low-density exception, is attributed to its diamond reserves and good management, not a replicable development model. (04:56–06:02)
- Mining and hydrocarbons require little labor, so population isn’t a driver there.
“Mining doesn’t require much labor. Modern mining. There’s only 10,000 people work in the diamond industry in Botswana.” — Joe Studwell (05:08)
3. Governance, Stability, and Growth Patterns
- Sustained, stable growth is rare in Africa, unlike Denmark’s steady development model. African states exhibit much greater volatility.
- Some countries, like Botswana, have used sovereign wealth funds to manage resource volatility but are now facing their own governance backsliding. (06:02–08:21)
- Recent improvement: There are fewer coups and less civil strife compared to the 1990s, and democracy is higher than several decades ago.
4. Private Sector and Agricultural Growth
- Studwell highlights African agricultural success: Since 2000, African agriculture has grown even faster than Asia (about 4.5% a year). (09:26–12:13)
- Rise of agribusiness: Firms like Buckraza in Tanzania are becoming diversified conglomerates, mirroring Southeast Asian development.
“The fastest average rate of agricultural GDP growth since 2000—about 4.5% in Africa, faster than anywhere else in the world. And that’s really a kind of night and day change…” — Joe Studwell (11:00)
5. Manufacturing Prospects in Africa
- Africa does have a manufacturing future, especially for labor-intensive industries like garments and textiles, where labor costs are now much lower than China. (12:20–15:17)
- Robotics and automation: High up-front costs and lack of flexibility make robots less likely to displace low-wage workers in Africa for now.
"Even a basic robot will cost you in excess of $100,000...when you can go out in somewhere like Tana in Madagascar and get another skilled garmenting employee for $60 or $65..." — Joe Studwell (14:04)
- Challenges: Energy, transportation, and political risk still deter investment, but renewable energy and infrastructure are improving in places like Ethiopia and Rwanda (18:57–20:28).
6. Infrastructure and Its Limits
- Major road and power investments, often with Chinese Belt and Road money, have improved connectivity, though often more for extractive than diversified economies. (20:28)
- Infrastructure decay: Maintenance, not just initial investment, remains a problem, but small-scale, farmer-led irrigation and micro approaches are delivering real gains. (20:42–22:52)
7. Human Capital and Education
- Progress: From only 16% literacy in 1960, much of Africa has rapidly expanded primary and secondary education, sometimes surpassing South Asia in performance (25:14–27:51).
- Lack of elite institutions: Africa lacks equivalents to India’s IITs or Sri Lankan universities, which remain a coming challenge rather than a failure of the past.
"Now there’s a change. Yes, Africa going forward needs really elite universities...that’s a problem for Africa going forward and not a problem around which we should judge Africa today." — Joe Studwell (29:17)
8. Disease Burden
- Huge progress has been continent-wide, thanks to both African government efforts and external partners; child mortality has fallen dramatically. (29:58–30:54)
- Places like Rwanda and Ethiopia have been particularly effective.
9. Colonial Legacy and Borders
- Duration of colonization: There's no simple rule connecting length of colonization to current outcomes in Africa due to varied colonial approaches and most experiences being relatively short. (31:27–32:22)
- African borders: The African Union strictly opposes any revision. Despite likely recognition of Somaliland by major powers, Studwell predicts the AU's resistance will persist. (36:13–39:24)
10. Special Economic Zones, Charter Cities, Regional Hubs
- SEZ Experience: Mixed in Africa; Chinese-managed zones fare better due to clear demand and private sector leadership (34:03–35:33).
- On charter cities: “...if there’s a government that’s thinking, right, let’s try this, you know, good luck to them.” (35:51)
- Financial hubs: UAE is rising as a conduit for African finance, especially in the Horn and West of Africa. (32:31–32:53)
11. Persistent Structural Challenges
- Uncertainty and investment: Political and governance volatility still scare off sustained foreign investment, with exceptions dependent on size (Nigeria, Ethiopia) and leadership.
- Port systems remain underdeveloped and bottleneck growth, with marginal improvement over decades. (22:52–24:03)
12. Comparative Lessons and Global Development
- Comparisons to Asia: African states had to build literacy from scratch, unlike many Asian peers—this leaves Africa still behind on elite education.
- South Asian advances: IITs are impressive, but represent a tiny fraction of India’s population, so not necessarily evidence of broad educational success. (27:51–28:52)
- Low fertility and demographic challenge: Both East Asia and South Asia now face potential stagnation due to ultra-low birth rates, with little prospect of rapid, successful policy fixes. (41:12–44:21)
13. The Role and Limits of Industrial Policy
- Industrial policy is critical for manufacturing-led growth, but only works when consistently and intelligently applied (45:05–48:08).
- Failures: Brazil and India are cited as negative examples—Studwell attributes failure to poor policy design, lack of competition, and inconsistent execution.
“As a means to develop your economy, as a means to raise your people up, [industrial policy’s] had a very good performance.” — Joe Studwell (46:05)
- Ethnicity and culture: Tyler presses on the persistent link between culture, ethnicity, and development outcomes—but Studwell emphasizes policy and “noise in the data” over simple ethnic explanations (48:46–50:47).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “[On Nigeria] The ethnic fragmentation problem has been particularly difficult... But I would say that the population density is what has allowed Nigeria to have a better performance in agriculture than most people expect...” — Joe Studwell (03:01)
- “There are many other states in Africa…which understand they’ve got to have a manufacturing future and intend to pursue one.” — Joe Studwell (15:40)
- “[Botswana] I think they’re going through a difficult period, but I’m not sure that they’re definitely going backwards. I mean, you could say similar things…about the United States.” — Joe Studwell (08:21)
- “If you look at the government stuff, you can still be pretty miserable about Africa, but what we’re seeing…is a level of traction from the private sector that we haven’t seen before.” — Joe Studwell (20:59)
- “Depopulation is way more serious than population growth ever was, I think, for the world as a whole.” — Joe Studwell (44:21)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Population Density in Africa: 01:01–04:28
- Botswana as Outlier: 04:28–06:02
- Political Stability vs. Growth: 06:02–09:26
- Private Sector and Agribusiness: 09:26–12:13
- Africa’s Manufacturing Future: 12:13–17:33
- Energy, Infrastructure: 18:57–22:52
- Ports and Property Rights: 22:52–24:03
- Human Capital/Education: 25:08–29:58
- Disease Burden Reduction: 29:58–30:54
- Colonial Legacy & Borders: 31:27–39:24
- Special Economic Zones/Charter Cities: 34:03–36:13
- Comparison with Asia (Thailand, East Asia): 39:41–45:00
- Industrial Policy Debate: 45:00–48:46
- Ethnicity, Policy, Culture: 48:46–50:47
Final Thoughts and Closing
Tyler wraps up by praising Studwell’s How Africa Works as “an excellent, well researched, extremely well written book” and notes Studwell may next turn his analytical eye to the development of the UK. The discussion offers an unusually nuanced, data-driven, and historically aware picture of African and Asian development, balancing hope with realism and avoiding both Afro-pessimism and overblown hype.
Recommended Listening:
For anyone interested in the evolution and future of development policy, as well as the fates of Africa and Asia in the global economy.