Conversations with Tyler: Nate Silver on Life’s Mixed Strategies

Podcast: Conversations with Tyler
Host: Tyler Cowen
Guest: Nate Silver
Date: August 13, 2025
Location: Live in New York
Occasion: Release of paperback edition of Nate Silver’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Episode Overview

In this wide-ranging, incisive conversation, Tyler Cowen interviews Nate Silver, statistician, poker player, and author, to explore the art (and science) of risk-taking in life, politics, sports, and prediction. The two dig deep into probabilistic thinking, the limitations and virtues of academic knowledge, prediction markets, and Silver’s personal approaches to learning, forecasting, and living with risk. The discussion is laced with practical examples, especially from sports, politics, and artificial intelligence, and features candid reflection on Silver’s own evolving views.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Expected Utility, Mixed Strategies, and Poker

Poker and Expected Utility: Silver spends "a tenth of his time" playing poker, where expected utility theory and equilibrium are explicit and practical (01:02).
Equilibrium Misunderstandings: Many grasp expected value but not equilibrium—"what equilibrium that should emerge given everyone has their incentives" (01:18).
Randomization in Poker: Silver sometimes literally randomizes his play based on external factors like the tournament clock (02:03).
- “I will literally randomize sometimes. You look at the tournament clock – if it's a high number, you'll bluff, and if it's a low number, then you'll play passively.” – Nate Silver (02:03)
Tells and Real-World Applications: While useful, reading tells is contextual and not always transferable. Building a “database” of behavioral cues through observation is crucial (03:34–05:06).
- “If you're right 60% of the time ... that's a huge edge. In gambling, any 55–45 edge is enormous.” – Nate Silver (05:04)
Translating to Sports and Life: Observing body language in NBA games can provide betting edges—though these are slim and qualitative (05:13).

The Value and Decline of Academic Literature

Declining Impact: Silver admits reading more substacks than academic journals (05:56). He argues that most academic papers could function as blog posts.
- “90% of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts, right?” – Nate Silver (08:13)
Dry Tone and Value of Voice: The “sterile tone” of academic writing loses the nuance, jokes, and speculations newsletters provide (08:25).
Effect of Politics on Academia: Many academics fall into “reflexively anti-Trump” thinking, losing subtlety and nuance (06:11).

Risk Attitudes and Human Nature

Segregating Risk: Most people have domain-specific risk attitudes, inconsistent across areas.
- Example: Ezekiel Emanuel avoids restaurants due to COVID yet rides a motorcycle (11:48).
Meta-Rationality and Evolution: Apparent irrationalities like loss aversion may be rational “on a higher plane” or evolutionary in origin (12:15).
Consistent Risk-Takers: Some Silicon Valley types are integrated, but this can limit feedback and lead to overconfidence (13:17).

Maximizing Expected Value and Longevity

Life Optimization: Silver finds total self-optimization for longevity unappealing; he focuses on “serious but incremental” improvements (08:51).
Pascal’s Wager: He dismisses Pascal’s Wager: “I don’t really believe in heaven as such... I put P = 0.001” (09:52, 10:00).
- “I do think that some of the AI stuff ought to have people asking a few more questions about the nature of reality, I suppose.” – Nate Silver (11:00)

Politics, Prediction Markets, and Voting Mechanisms

Ranked Choice Voting (RCV): Silver is "mildly anti-RCV", citing non-Condorcet optimality, slow counts, and manipulability (16:50–18:22).
Proportional Representation: In principle, Silver would adopt it due to his critique of the two-party system, though he notes veto points may be good for economic growth (19:24).
Prediction Markets’ Quality: Liquidity is up, but mispricings remain (e.g., non-eligible candidates appearing in betting) (21:00).
External 'Savior' Candidates: The chance of an outside centrist emerging is lower now; primaries reflect general election strength (23:29–25:43).
Democratic Nominee Prediction: AOC leads Silver’s list but with low probability (“no one’s higher than 15%”) (27:37–28:20).

AI, Forecasting, and Human vs Machine

Superforecasting Timelines: Silver holds to his earlier “10 to 15 years” for AI to reach human superforecaster level, citing the complexity and dynamism of the problems (28:31–29:15).
Teaching to the Test: Silver is skeptical that AI’s Math Olympiad success translates to real-world dynamic problem-solving (29:15–30:46).
General vs Super-Intelligence: Large language models are making progress, but a leap to AGI or super-intelligence is not imminent in Silver’s view (31:15–32:22).

Sports: NBA, Betting, and the Nature of Competition

Sports Betting Edges: Live observation (“courtsiding”) can provide minute but important betting edges (16:16).
NBA Structure and Injuries: Suggests incremental schedule reductions or individual player rest requirements to combat injuries (39:13–41:43).
NBA Draft and Socialism vs Capitalism in Sports: Silver favors the “wheel” system; American sports are more “socialist” in structure than European (38:08–39:09).
LeBron James’s Future: Advises LeBron to join a young team “where I can win a title and mentor some guys,” like the Spurs (42:05–43:33).
Long-shot vs. Favorite Teams: The theory that only a handful of NBA teams can win is “overstated”; the history is more complex (44:05).
WNBA Betting: Edges exist in women’s sports due to less information and reporting; “knowledge nobody else has” is valuable (36:37–37:52).

Social Trends, LGBTQ in Sports, and Cultural Norms

Coming Out in Sports: Surprised by lack of NBA players coming out as gay since Jason Collins (34:36).
WNBA Comparisons: Large gulf between men’s and women’s leagues in openness; unique “fascinating” demographics at WNBA games (36:13).
Selection Mechanisms: Possibly harder for gay athletes to stay on the pro track due to early life factors (35:37).

Prediction and Intellectual Community

Mentorship and Learning: Silver still looks to Bill James, Richard Thaler, and online writers like Zvi Moshkowits for ideas and updates, especially on AI (46:18–48:00).
Rationalist/EA Community: Sees the rationalist and AI safety communities as open, experimental, sometimes naive, and very “weird” even for tech (48:13).
Bay Area vs New York: Cultural divergence—Bay Area is more “aloof” and experimental, even in small social signals (51:05–52:15).

Global Politics and Populism

Populist Right: Momentum for the populist right surged post-pandemic but may be peaking in core countries (54:51–56:28).
Immigration Politics: Voters want immigration restriction, but policy moves slowly; some leftist leaders (Denmark, Trudeau in Canada) shifting positions (56:28–57:20).
Thermostatic Politics: Populism could soon recede as anti-status-quo sentiment cycles; US system achieves competitive 50/50 coalitions reliably (55:52–58:35).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On randomness and equilibrium:
“I will literally randomize sometimes. You look at the tournament clock – if it's a high number, you'll bluff, and if it's a low number, then you'll play passively.” – Nate Silver (02:03)
On tells and expertise:
“If you're right 60% of the time ... that's a huge edge. In gambling, any 55–45 edge is enormous.” – Nate Silver (05:04)
On academic writing:
“90% of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts, right?” – Nate Silver (08:13)
On Pascal’s Wager:
“I don’t really believe in heaven as such... I put P = 0.001.” – Nate Silver (10:00)
On prediction markets:
“You still see some obvious mispricings... Zoran actually had a 7% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee when that market launched at Polymarket and was born in Uganda. So there's no workaround to that, I don't think.” – Nate Silver (21:00)
On AI and superforecasting:
“I would say relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th percentile of progress I would have expected.” – Nate Silver (28:34)
On writing and mentorship:
“Good writing about technical subjects can still be good writing, period. If you're like an 8 out of 10 as a writer, and 8 out of 10 as a statistician, that might be more valuable than being a 10 out of 10 and a 2 out of 10 in the other area, potentially.” – Nate Silver (46:27)
On polyamory and doom:
“They're not being constrained by the norms of society. That thing is taken very seriously in that group [rationalists].” – Nate Silver (52:45)

Timestamps for Important Segments

Expected Utility & Mixed Strategies: 01:02–03:30
Reading Tells in Poker & Life: 03:30–05:06
Impact of Academic Literature: 05:50–08:43
Risk-Taking Attitudes: 11:25–13:17
Pascal’s Wager & Belief: 09:28–11:00
Ranked Choice Voting: 16:45–18:22
Proportional Representation: 19:17–20:38
Prediction Markets’ Accuracy: 21:00–25:43
AI Superforecasting Timeline: 28:20–32:22
NBA Draft, Structure, Injuries: 38:08–41:43
Mentorship and Learning: 46:14–48:00
Populism and Immigration Politics: 54:51–58:35

Conclusion and What’s Next for Nate Silver

Silver is currently working on an NFL modeling project and continues to expand his newsletter, "Silver Bulletin." He hints at future books, possibly on sports or risk, but is keeping specifics under wraps. Poker and forecasting remain central long-term interests, and the next U.S. election cycle still looms large in his plans (62:06–63:08).

Takeaways

This episode is a masterclass in clear thinking under uncertainty. Silver and Cowen traverse theory and practice, highlighting how mixed strategies, probabilistic reasoning, and human judgment matter in fast-moving fields—be it poker, politics, sports, or AI. The conversation brims with actionable reflections on risk, the complex interplay between information and intuition, and a nuanced skepticism about both academic expertise and technological hype.

For listeners seeking to better understand risk, prediction, and rationality in modern life—this exchange is essential.

Conversations with Tyler: Nate Silver on Life’s Mixed Strategies

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Expected Utility, Mixed Strategies, and Poker

Poker and Expected Utility: Silver spends "a tenth of his time" playing poker, where expected utility theory and equilibrium are explicit and practical (01:02).
Equilibrium Misunderstandings: Many grasp expected value but not equilibrium—"what equilibrium that should emerge given everyone has their incentives" (01:18).
Randomization in Poker: Silver sometimes literally randomizes his play based on external factors like the tournament clock (02:03).
- “I will literally randomize sometimes. You look at the tournament clock – if it's a high number, you'll bluff, and if it's a low number, then you'll play passively.” – Nate Silver (02:03)
Tells and Real-World Applications: While useful, reading tells is contextual and not always transferable. Building a “database” of behavioral cues through observation is crucial (03:34–05:06).
- “If you're right 60% of the time ... that's a huge edge. In gambling, any 55–45 edge is enormous.” – Nate Silver (05:04)
Translating to Sports and Life: Observing body language in NBA games can provide betting edges—though these are slim and qualitative (05:13).

The Value and Decline of Academic Literature

Declining Impact: Silver admits reading more substacks than academic journals (05:56). He argues that most academic papers could function as blog posts.
- “90% of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts, right?” – Nate Silver (08:13)
Dry Tone and Value of Voice: The “sterile tone” of academic writing loses the nuance, jokes, and speculations newsletters provide (08:25).
Effect of Politics on Academia: Many academics fall into “reflexively anti-Trump” thinking, losing subtlety and nuance (06:11).

Risk Attitudes and Human Nature

Segregating Risk: Most people have domain-specific risk attitudes, inconsistent across areas.
- Example: Ezekiel Emanuel avoids restaurants due to COVID yet rides a motorcycle (11:48).
Meta-Rationality and Evolution: Apparent irrationalities like loss aversion may be rational “on a higher plane” or evolutionary in origin (12:15).
Consistent Risk-Takers: Some Silicon Valley types are integrated, but this can limit feedback and lead to overconfidence (13:17).

Maximizing Expected Value and Longevity

Life Optimization: Silver finds total self-optimization for longevity unappealing; he focuses on “serious but incremental” improvements (08:51).
Pascal’s Wager: He dismisses Pascal’s Wager: “I don’t really believe in heaven as such... I put P = 0.001” (09:52, 10:00).
- “I do think that some of the AI stuff ought to have people asking a few more questions about the nature of reality, I suppose.” – Nate Silver (11:00)

Politics, Prediction Markets, and Voting Mechanisms

Ranked Choice Voting (RCV): Silver is "mildly anti-RCV", citing non-Condorcet optimality, slow counts, and manipulability (16:50–18:22).
Proportional Representation: In principle, Silver would adopt it due to his critique of the two-party system, though he notes veto points may be good for economic growth (19:24).
Prediction Markets’ Quality: Liquidity is up, but mispricings remain (e.g., non-eligible candidates appearing in betting) (21:00).
External 'Savior' Candidates: The chance of an outside centrist emerging is lower now; primaries reflect general election strength (23:29–25:43).
Democratic Nominee Prediction: AOC leads Silver’s list but with low probability (“no one’s higher than 15%”) (27:37–28:20).

AI, Forecasting, and Human vs Machine

Superforecasting Timelines: Silver holds to his earlier “10 to 15 years” for AI to reach human superforecaster level, citing the complexity and dynamism of the problems (28:31–29:15).
Teaching to the Test: Silver is skeptical that AI’s Math Olympiad success translates to real-world dynamic problem-solving (29:15–30:46).
General vs Super-Intelligence: Large language models are making progress, but a leap to AGI or super-intelligence is not imminent in Silver’s view (31:15–32:22).

Sports: NBA, Betting, and the Nature of Competition

Sports Betting Edges: Live observation (“courtsiding”) can provide minute but important betting edges (16:16).
NBA Structure and Injuries: Suggests incremental schedule reductions or individual player rest requirements to combat injuries (39:13–41:43).
NBA Draft and Socialism vs Capitalism in Sports: Silver favors the “wheel” system; American sports are more “socialist” in structure than European (38:08–39:09).
LeBron James’s Future: Advises LeBron to join a young team “where I can win a title and mentor some guys,” like the Spurs (42:05–43:33).
Long-shot vs. Favorite Teams: The theory that only a handful of NBA teams can win is “overstated”; the history is more complex (44:05).
WNBA Betting: Edges exist in women’s sports due to less information and reporting; “knowledge nobody else has” is valuable (36:37–37:52).

Social Trends, LGBTQ in Sports, and Cultural Norms

Coming Out in Sports: Surprised by lack of NBA players coming out as gay since Jason Collins (34:36).
WNBA Comparisons: Large gulf between men’s and women’s leagues in openness; unique “fascinating” demographics at WNBA games (36:13).
Selection Mechanisms: Possibly harder for gay athletes to stay on the pro track due to early life factors (35:37).

Prediction and Intellectual Community

Mentorship and Learning: Silver still looks to Bill James, Richard Thaler, and online writers like Zvi Moshkowits for ideas and updates, especially on AI (46:18–48:00).
Rationalist/EA Community: Sees the rationalist and AI safety communities as open, experimental, sometimes naive, and very “weird” even for tech (48:13).
Bay Area vs New York: Cultural divergence—Bay Area is more “aloof” and experimental, even in small social signals (51:05–52:15).

Global Politics and Populism

Populist Right: Momentum for the populist right surged post-pandemic but may be peaking in core countries (54:51–56:28).
Immigration Politics: Voters want immigration restriction, but policy moves slowly; some leftist leaders (Denmark, Trudeau in Canada) shifting positions (56:28–57:20).
Thermostatic Politics: Populism could soon recede as anti-status-quo sentiment cycles; US system achieves competitive 50/50 coalitions reliably (55:52–58:35).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On randomness and equilibrium:
“I will literally randomize sometimes. You look at the tournament clock – if it's a high number, you'll bluff, and if it's a low number, then you'll play passively.” – Nate Silver (02:03)
On tells and expertise:
“If you're right 60% of the time ... that's a huge edge. In gambling, any 55–45 edge is enormous.” – Nate Silver (05:04)
On academic writing:
“90% of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts, right?” – Nate Silver (08:13)
On Pascal’s Wager:
“I don’t really believe in heaven as such... I put P = 0.001.” – Nate Silver (10:00)
On prediction markets:
“You still see some obvious mispricings... Zoran actually had a 7% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee when that market launched at Polymarket and was born in Uganda. So there's no workaround to that, I don't think.” – Nate Silver (21:00)
On AI and superforecasting:
“I would say relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th percentile of progress I would have expected.” – Nate Silver (28:34)
On writing and mentorship:
“Good writing about technical subjects can still be good writing, period. If you're like an 8 out of 10 as a writer, and 8 out of 10 as a statistician, that might be more valuable than being a 10 out of 10 and a 2 out of 10 in the other area, potentially.” – Nate Silver (46:27)
On polyamory and doom:
“They're not being constrained by the norms of society. That thing is taken very seriously in that group [rationalists].” – Nate Silver (52:45)

Timestamps for Important Segments

Expected Utility & Mixed Strategies: 01:02–03:30
Reading Tells in Poker & Life: 03:30–05:06
Impact of Academic Literature: 05:50–08:43
Risk-Taking Attitudes: 11:25–13:17
Pascal’s Wager & Belief: 09:28–11:00
Ranked Choice Voting: 16:45–18:22
Proportional Representation: 19:17–20:38
Prediction Markets’ Accuracy: 21:00–25:43
AI Superforecasting Timeline: 28:20–32:22
NBA Draft, Structure, Injuries: 38:08–41:43
Mentorship and Learning: 46:14–48:00
Populism and Immigration Politics: 54:51–58:35

Conclusion and What’s Next for Nate Silver

Takeaways

For listeners seeking to better understand risk, prediction, and rationality in modern life—this exchange is essential.

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Nate Silver on Life's Mixed Strategies

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Summary

Conversations with Tyler: Nate Silver on Life’s Mixed Strategies

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Expected Utility, Mixed Strategies, and Poker

The Value and Decline of Academic Literature

Risk Attitudes and Human Nature

Maximizing Expected Value and Longevity

Politics, Prediction Markets, and Voting Mechanisms

AI, Forecasting, and Human vs Machine

Sports: NBA, Betting, and the Nature of Competition

Social Trends, LGBTQ in Sports, and Cultural Norms

Prediction and Intellectual Community

Global Politics and Populism

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Conclusion and What’s Next for Nate Silver

Takeaways

Summary

Conversations with Tyler: Nate Silver on Life’s Mixed Strategies

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Expected Utility, Mixed Strategies, and Poker

The Value and Decline of Academic Literature

Risk Attitudes and Human Nature

Maximizing Expected Value and Longevity

Politics, Prediction Markets, and Voting Mechanisms

AI, Forecasting, and Human vs Machine

Sports: NBA, Betting, and the Nature of Competition

Social Trends, LGBTQ in Sports, and Cultural Norms

Prediction and Intellectual Community

Global Politics and Populism

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Conclusion and What’s Next for Nate Silver

Takeaways