This week on CropGPT, we dive into the data shaping the US ag economy and outlook for the 2025/26 season.

Labour Market Snapshot

Farm labour demand is rising: Hired workers by U.S. farm operators increased 3% in both January and April 2025 vs. the same weeks in 2024.
Wage growth holds steady:
- All hired workers: $19.52/hr (+3% YoY)
- Field workers: $18.58/hr (+2%)
- Livestock workers: $18.15/hr (+4%)
Average hours worked also ticked up to 40.8 hours/week in April.

Inflation & Input Price Watch

CPI (April 2025): +0.2% MoM; 2.3% YoY – lowest 12-month rise since Feb 2021
Food-at-home prices: -0.4% MoM
Energy index: +0.7% MoM
PPI (Producer Prices): -0.5% overall in April
- Services down 0.7%
- Goods unchanged
- Notably: Egg prices fell 39.4%

Crop Outlook: 2025/26 Projections

Wheat:
- U.S. production: 1.921B bushels (-3% YoY)
- Price: $5.30/bu (-$0.20 YoY)
- Global record output: 808.5M tons
Corn:
- U.S. crop: 15.8B bushels (+6%)
- Highest planted area in over a decade (95.3M acres)
- Price: $4.20/bu (-$0.15)
- Global output: 1.265B metric tons
Rice:
- U.S. production down 1%, but imports at record 49.2M cwt
- Price: $13.20/cwt (down from $15.20)
Soybeans:
- Lower U.S. supplies and exports, but higher crush
- Price: $10.25/bu (up from $9.95)
- Global oilseed production: +2%

Livestock, Poultry & Dairy

Beef: Production down in 2026 due to tight cattle supply and Mexican import halt
Pork: Production up on stronger hog inventory
Poultry: Broiler and turkey output forecast higher
Eggs: Output rebounds, prices expected to drop
Dairy: Milk production to rise, prices to ease
- All-milk price forecast: $21.15/cwt

Global Trade Pressure

WTO forecasts -0.2% contraction in global goods trade for 2025
U.S.-China tensions escalate: New tariffs on both sides impacting ag goods
EU on pause: 90-day suspension on retaliatory ag tariffs amid U.S. talks
Farm groups warn: Rising tariffs = costlier inputs + weaker U.S. export position
WTO agriculture negotiations resume ahead of March 2026 ministerial

US Ag Economy - Jobs Up. Costs Down. Corn Exports Up