Design Better Podcast:

Nick Foster – "Could, Should, Might, Don't: A New Way to Think About Designing for the Future"

Date: August 20, 2025
Hosts: Eli Woolery & Aarron Walter
Guest: Nick Foster (Former Head of Design at Google X, author of "Could, Should, Might, Don’t")

Episode Overview

This episode features renowned designer Nick Foster, whose extensive experience at Google X and across various innovation labs has shaped a new approach to futures thinking in design. Foster introduces his book, "Could, Should, Might, Don’t," and discusses how designers can better navigate the uncertainties, pitfalls, and opportunities when designing for a world that doesn't yet exist. The conversation dives into the ambiguity inherent in future-focused design, critiques corporate “numeric fiction,” explores the limits of prediction, and offers a nuanced taxonomy for thinking about possible futures.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Designing for the Future: Ambiguity and Exploration

• Designers and Ambiguity: Many designers are grounded in familiar patterns, favoring projects with clear start and end points. Designing for the future, by contrast, means working in unknowns and accepting frequent dead ends. (00:01)
  • Nick Foster: “When you're exploring the future, it is an unknowable space...and you have to be comfortable throwing your chest at that and saying this might be the one. But it’s more than likely to either fail or not yield the kind of outputs you’re looking for.” (00:01)
• Ambiguity as a Skill: True long-term futures work requires high ambiguity tolerance—a rare but essential trait for innovation. Finding designers comfortable with projects that may never launch was a recurring challenge at Google X. (09:59)

2. Biography and Career Journey

• From Engineering to Futures: Foster traces his path from industrial and applied engineering in the UK (notably with Dyson and Nokia) toward speculative and strategic design for emerging technologies. His move to the US and leadership at Google X mark a shift toward ambitious, long-horizon explorations. (03:21–06:45)

3. Inside Google X: Experimentation Without KPIs

• Privilege and Pressure: While roles at Google X are a privilege, there’s pressure to deliver impact without the crutch of normal business metrics like KPIs. The culture emphasized quickly killing dead-end ideas and avoiding rigid processes in favor of agility and resilience. (13:06)
  • Foster: “There are no KPIs or ROIs on a lot of this work. So it’s very difficult to justify it. And…I’m a little bit process allergic, if I’m honest. I find it too prescriptive…” (13:06–13:54)
• Translating Audacity Into Pragmatism: The design process is described as making the long laborious translation of “audacity into pragmatism,” turning raw science into possible stories and prototypes that challenge inventors to articulate meaningful futures. (16:23, 18:00)

4. Lessons from Google X

• Broadening the Role of Design: Working with PhDs and scientists unfamiliar with design allowed Foster to redefine design as broader than styling; it’s a thinking tool, essential for bridging gaps and preventing costly dead ends. (19:10)
  • Foster: “Design really undersells itself. It can be a tool to help think as much as anything else.” (20:15)
• Spectrum of Reception: Scientists’ responses ranged from treating design as a tactical asset to being genuinely curious and receptive—a reminder that much of the tech world still undervalues strategic design thinking. (20:45)

5. The Book: Why Now?

• Distilling Half-Formed Thoughts: After years of relentless work, Foster found himself needing to synthesize years of notes and experiences. Writing became a way of clarifying his own viewpoint and creating a structured approach to future design thinking. (21:56, 24:41)
  • Foster: “I realized that I’ve got quite strong opinions on the ways in which we think about the future…And I think the process of writing is really undervalued or maybe under respected within designers.” (21:56–24:41)

6. Could, Should, Might, Don’t: The Taxonomy of Future-Thinking

Not a How-To, but a Way to Diagnose How We Imagine the Future (25:09)

A. Could Futurism

• Definition: The realm of imaginative, sci-fi, and “what if” thinking—often heroic, optimistic visions, but untethered from practical constraints.
• Examples: Flying cars, Jetsons-like cities, company naming customs referencing sci-fi media, and tech industry visioning exercises. (31:42, 33:00)
  • Foster: “If you type the word 'futuristic' into Google Image Search…it’s all of the overly ambitious, excitable, over-the-top stuff…” (31:42)
• Pitfalls: Risks detachment from reality; fails to acknowledge the sedimentary, evolutionary nature of most change.
  • Foster: “Humans don’t change as fast as we think they do…show[ing] change alongside continuity is a real skill.” (36:49)

B. Should Futurism

• Definition: Futures dictated by certainty, often corporate or consultative, grounded in predictive modeling and historic trendlines.
• Risks: “Numeric fiction” substitutes comforting numbers for real understanding, making prediction seem more rigorous than it is.
  • Foster: “Once that line goes from solid to dotted, it ceases to be data. It’s a story at that point.” (39:22)
• Cultural Obsession: The business world craves certainty, but real futures are “volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous” (VUCA). (41:00)

C. Might Futurism

• Definition: Plural, scenario-based thinking (“strategic foresight”); explores a range of possible futures without asserting which will occur. Emphasizes war-game style planning, scenario cones, and trend mapping. (52:40–53:22)
• Challenges: Humans are bad at imagining exponential or discontinuous change and lean on linear projections or familiarity. (54:30)

D. Don’t Futurism

• Definition: The “shadow quadrant” focused on adverse consequences, externalities, and ethical responsibilities—often ignored due to lack of direct ROI or uncomfortable implications.
• Difficult Conversations: Organizations resist this type because it’s harder to measure and can be divisive. But it’s necessary for responsible innovation.
  • Foster: “We’re living in time capsules accidentally planted by our predecessors...and we’re actually sort of spending our lives mopping up that.” (46:00)
  • Aaron Walter: “In Silicon Valley…we come into this space with a lot of great intentions…and with that comes naivete, kind of a Pollyanna-ish blindness to what could happen…these days I feel a lot more fear and trepidation about the next five years, really, than I feel that hopefulness I once had.” (48:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Comfort with ambiguity is sort of the primary skill that you need.” – Nick Foster (09:59)
• “There's something about numbers that make stories about the future feel much more rigorous…But those dotted lines are stories. They're not truths.” – Nick Foster (39:22)
• “We’re living in time capsules that were accidentally planted by our predecessors...we’re mopping up that.” – Nick Foster (46:00)
• “My father grew up in the 50s when the future was a positive place. I grew up in the 80s where the future was a positive place. And I think now we’re living through an era...of ambient adolescent apocalypticism…” – Nick Foster (49:59)
• “If we do things at scale, they have big scale impact. The challenge of don't futurism…is it's very hard to do in organizations because it doesn't have KPIs or ROIs.” – Nick Foster (46:10)
• “I just feel like it's very easy to ignore the ‘burn it all down’ voice and dismiss it as naysaying.” – Nick Foster (52:00)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Topic/Segment | |----------|-----------------------------------------| | 00:01 | The challenge and allure of ambiguity in futures design (Foster intro) | | 03:21 | Nick Foster’s biography and entry into future-focused work | | 09:06 | Comfort with ambiguity; challenges hiring for Google X | | 13:06 | Life and work at Google X—privilege, pressure, killing ideas, process allergy | | 16:23 | Turning audacity into pragmatism in early-stage design | | 19:10 | Key learnings from working alongside non-designers | | 21:56 | Why write a book? The value of writing in design thinking | | 25:09 | Could, Should, Might, Don’t: Taxonomy origins—not a framework | | 31:42 | Detailed breakdown: Could futurism | | 36:49 | Science fiction, continuity with the past, the limits of ‘could’ | | 39:22 | Should futurism; numeric fiction, the seductive certainty trap | | 43:54 | Don’t futurism, dystopias, organizational resistance to negative futures | | 46:00 | Living in predecessors’ time capsules—legacy, responsibility, and implications | | 48:42 | Host’s personal fear/trepidation about the future | | 52:40 | Might futurism, scenario planning, the challenge of nonlinear imagination | | 57:53 | Recommendations—Adam Curtis, YouTube for deep research | | 60:11 | Where to find more information about Foster and his book |

Resources & Recommendations

• Nick Foster’s Book: couldshouldmightdont.com (60:11)
• Nick Foster’s Portfolio: nickfosterrdi.com (60:11)
• Recommended Watch: Adam Curtis’ documentary series “Shifty” (BBC iPlayer, possibly on YouTube) (58:00)

Takeaways for Designers and Innovators

• Embrace Uncertainty: Future-oriented design is about learning to make progress in ambiguous, shifting landscapes—comfort with not knowing is a superpower.
• Challenge Certainties: Be wary of “numeric fiction”—when numbers become stories masking as certainty.
• Responsible Futures: Don’t overlook the ethical and responsible dimensions—negative futures are hard to measure but vital to consider.
• Go Beyond Frameworks: The real value lies not in step-by-step recipes, but in knowing how to interrogate, categorize, and challenge how we construct images of the future.
• Write it Out: Writing is a critical part of designing your own thinking—structure follows reflection.

This summary preserves the conversational tone and key language of the speakers, offering a rich, timestamped guide for anyone interested in design, technology, and responsible innovation for the future.