WAR! (or is it?)

Tesla Robotaxi Update

Japan’s rice problem

Drink up! New guidelines coming…

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Warm-Up
- WAR! (or is it?)
- Tesla Robotaxi Update
- Japan's rice problem
- Drink up! New guidelines coming...

Markets
- Not phased by Iranian attack - (well planned attack for markets - timing, newsflow and narrative of "successful mission")
- A ceasefire now - quick wars!
- P/E forward nearing 22
- Leading indicators - dropping
- VERY Resilient overall - dips are for buying
- NASDAQ 100 closing in on all-time highs - triple top

Dropping the F Bomb - 7am CNBC
- " Two counties that have been that have been fighting so long and so hard that they do not know what the "F***ck" they are doing"

Oil
- Drops from high of $78 to $66
- Iran bombing news spikes the price on Sunday night - and then....free fall....

Tesla
- Everyone is a flutter about the RoboTaxi test in Austin
- Stock moved up 10% on the news Monday
-- Everyone knows it is a long haul - but the hope and the promise is something that investors live on
- Tesla Robotaxis spotted speeding, making improper turns on first day of service, according to Bloomberg

HAMMER
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, in a news conference Sunday, reviewed operational details of Saturday’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the well-concealed strikes against nuclear development facilities in Iran that both men called an “incredible and overwhelming success.”
- “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” President Donald Trump said Saturday.
- Bunker Buster Bombs - lots of them
- Was it a success?
-- Monday: Iran coordinated the attacks on U.S. base in Qatar and gave officials advance warning to minimize casualties

Interesting
- Online job listing company CareerBuilder + Monster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.

Leading Indicators
- A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters.
- "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said.
"The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026."

Global Rates and Central Banks - Update

World Rates

Japan's Rice Problem
- Rice prices in Japan more than doubled in May, spiking 101.7% year over year and marking their largest increase in over half a century.
- The huge spike follows a 98.4% increase in April, and a rise of 92.1% year over year in March.
- Japan’s rice prices have been in the spotlight in recent times, with the government releasing emergency stockpiles to moderate the price of the country’s staple food.
- The surge in rice prices comes as Japan’s core inflation rate climbed to 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since January 2023.
- The figure — which strips out costs for fresh food — was higher than the 3.6% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and is above April’s reading of 3.5%.

Since Warren's Announcement
- That retreat translates into roughly fifteen percentage points of underperformance versus the benchmark?S&P?500 index over the period since the announcement
- Analysts attribute a sizable portion of the decline to the fading of the so?called “Buffett premium” that had been embedded in Berkshire’s valuation for decades.
- Note: Operating earnings, which capture performance at wholly owned insurance, railroad, energy, and manufacturing subsidiaries, fell fourteen?percent year over year to?$9.64?billion - so there is that too...

Drink Up!
- The U.S. government is expected to eliminate from its dietary guidelines the long-standing recommendation that adults limit alcohol consumption to one or two drinks per day, according to three sources familiar with the matter
- The updated Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which could be released as early as this month, are expected to include a brief statement encouraging Americans to drink in moderation or limit alcohol intake due to associated health risks.

Fed Rate Decision
- The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady and policymakers signaled that borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year.
- But Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that, saying he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead from the Trump administration's tariffs.
- "No one holds these ... rate paths with a great deal of conviction, and everyone would agree that they're all going to be data dependent," Powell said.
- In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation ending the year at 3%, well above the current level.
- Policymaker projections show two rate cuts still seen in 2025
- Year-end inflation projection higher at 3%, growth lower at 1.4%

AI for Marketers
- Reddit announced a “listening tool” called Reddit Insights, which shares real-time insights with marketers to help them identify trends and launch campaigns.
- The other tool, called Conversation Summary Add-ons, allows brands to show “positive” user content under their ads.
- Following the Meta (Facebook) move to have AI run marketing campaigns (cutting out the middle man)
- “These are tools for a new era of community marketing, one where brands can tap into Reddit’s authenticity and connect meaningfully with high-intent communities around the world,” the company wrote.
- Sounds like they are just preying on free-userbase

Airlines - Cutting Routes
- U.S. carriers have announced plans to trim capacity, particularly in the second half of the year, as bookings for domestic travel came in weaker than expected this year and fares fell.
- Airfare in May was down 7.3% compared with last year, according to U.S. Department of Labor’s inflation report.
- JetBlue and other airlines pulled their 2025 financial forecasts, citing economic uncertainty that executives said made it difficult to predict demand.
- JetBlue will further cut off-peak flights and trim unprofitable routes. It will also pause plans to retrofit four of its older Airbus A320 jets with new interiors and park them, while the six remaining jets slated for the refurbishment are still ...