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DHUnplugged Podcast
Hosted by Horowitz and Dvorak · EN
DHUnplugged Podcast
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DHUnplugged #798: Market Immunity
Apr 1501:01:08Tap to summarizePCE and inflation trends – single day concern Earnings Season – Goldman, JPM Eco Reports of historic proportion Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Walking back - Waffling and Extensions --- Blockade - not really - Market Immunity - Jesus.ai - Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?) Markets - PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised - Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM - Historic Eco Report - Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks CONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ - Over $250M in tour winnings Market Update - Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed - - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification - Markets somewhat immune? Looking past? - FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares! ----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about... Historic! - As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor. - The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history. Consumer Sentiment Fed Looking - The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry. - The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system. - The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry. ECO - PPI - PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation - Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%) Core PPI (excluding food and energy): - Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation - Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%) --- Market talk: -- - Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporary Meanwhile... - Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran. - The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg. - That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice. Blockade - President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance. -The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump. --- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?) - The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command. Goldman Earnings - Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus. - Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies. - Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025. --- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card) ---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news event Stocks: Earnings - Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news. --- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last. --------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1. Blackrock Call - Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop. - With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter. - But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFs Stocks: Monday/Tuesday -----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%. -----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%. --Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levels Stocks: Mattress Consolidation: - Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026. ----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, Dreams Stocks - Upgrades - Toll Brothers, Pultegroup — Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform. - - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers. Pope Leo - WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump -- Is the Pope involved in criminal / police issues ? Jesus Update - Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted) - At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level. -----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jes...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #797: Transitory War Pricing
Apr 801:02:12Tap to summarizeA surprising payroll report The quick war – not over just yet Food inflation coming Economics – a bright spot and surprising report last week Space issues – Space sewage PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - A surprising payroll report - The quick war - not over just yet - Food inflation coming - Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week - Space issues - Space sewage - 8PM - End of Civilization? Markets - March sucked - that is the report - 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss - OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory - Market Manipulation - say it ain't so! Oil - Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual - WTI ~ $116 Brent ~ $109 - Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW - WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that... - Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusual BUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization? - Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations - Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait - YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2% ---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?) In Process - In Theory - Framework - OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output - OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for May Apple Foldable Flop - Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays. - Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device. - Engineering problems they say.... Closing this Discussion - Bored with this....But... - OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. - The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced. - OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors. The 1st Quarter Misery - Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. - Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot. - The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq, - Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT. - SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD - Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter 1st Quarter Happiness - Energy Sector up 30% - Materials up 10% - Utilities up 10% - Oil up almost 100% - EM still positive for 2026 Latest Eco - Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000. - The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force. - Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021. -Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs. - March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1% - - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics ------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressures Inflation - Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher - - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening - Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026 - Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary) No View - Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government. - Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs - Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers - Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government - Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see us Dems probing stock trades - Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements. - Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples. - Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related trades The Final Frontier - The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon. - The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space. --- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems - NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes. ---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements. -------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean. -------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position. Earnings Season - Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle) - The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains. - Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022. - But what about the outlook????????????????? Mag 7 Earnings expectations - Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction. Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion. Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth. Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline. Growth within mega-cap tec...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #796: Broken Trump Card
Apr 101:00:01Tap to summarizeMarch is the WORST month for markets in a long time. International equities getting killed Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down The markets Trump Card no longer works… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets) - Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105) - For Real ? End of War? Markets - WORST month in a long time - International equities getting killed - Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down Happy Passover and Happy Easter! - Made a brisket 2 ways! One Food item and then back to business - New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow..... - Reaction from crowd and recent FDA - Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....) Monday Morning Again - 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great... ---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled ------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher.... - It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?) - Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?) - So we have until the day after Easter? Tuesday.... - Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call - - Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/- - Everything turned higher - green across the board More Crazy Records - BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day. - For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented. - Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs ---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days Hormuz Tolls/Permits - Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait - Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers - Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island - Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically Hedge Funds and Money Managers - Plans continue - equities coming out to cash - Hedges applied - H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown --- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire ------- HOWEVER - damage has been done... More.... - Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war. - Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high. - Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month. Capitulation of More To Come? GS Prime Book Market Metrics FRIENDLY REMINDER - It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15 - IRA deposits due by 4/15 Food Deal - Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US. - Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place. - The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers. - This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution Emerging Markets - According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions. - A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms. - The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers. - The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts. - A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades. Oil Pries Factor - Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on Monday Market Metrics In Stupid News - Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said. - Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference. - Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related. - Wo...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #795: Johnny B Good
Mar 2501:02:05Tap to summarizeJCD BACK IN THE HOUSE! Correction in some areas and sectors. Crude oil DROPS after “good” talks and a deal brewing with Iran. Airports are a mess. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE - Need a new CTP - Airports are a mess - Not Kosher - Futures moves Markets - From the Brink....All is good? - Correction in some areas and sectors - US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop - Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the above JCD UPDATE - AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm... - Health update etc...Can we get the story? - Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup! Market Update - Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling - Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction -- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2% - Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum) Manipulation? Say it ain't so... - Dateline Monday morning... - Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair - At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume. - A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. - Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social. - Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89% --- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend? A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed Private Credit Again - All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem..... - Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion. - Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters. - Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption. - According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers. - Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies. - Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management. - He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk. - LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds. Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch PRIVATE CREDIT More OpenAI Funding - Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday. - The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October. - The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?) MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM - OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years. - AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month. AI and Where we stand - Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude? - What is our Go-to AI bots? - What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic - - What comes after Agentic Netflix OUT - Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer. - The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged. - Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses. - He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.| - Stock rose nicely on the news Tariff Refund Update - You are screwed.... -- Trump administration seems hell-bent on keeping our money Airlines - After a rather bullish commentary from Delta last week.... - United Airlines is cutting more unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for a prolonged period of high jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, even as strong travel demand has allowed U.S. carriers to raise fares. Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027. - At those levels, United's annual fuel bill would rise by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it earned in its "best year ever," he said. - Ticket prices going up! Gas Prices - Have you seen diesel prices? - > $5 gallon on average across the U.S. -- Implications beyond --- Let's discuss the similarities to the 1973 oil embargo. (Barry switching license plates) - 1973–1974 ? Arab oil embargo (the classic “1970s oil embargo”) - 1979 ? Second oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution (not an embargo, but another major supply shock) Even So - Fedex - FedEx Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast, with adjusted earnings expected to be $19.30 to $20.10 a share for the fiscal year. - The company's shares climbed after the announcement, with the stock advancing about 23% this year through Thursday's close. - FedEx does not expect the war in the Middle East to have a direct material effect on its business, but the broader consequences, including higher energy prices and volatile shipping patterns, are adversely affecting the global economy. - In fact, company raised its full year outlook..... --- Not a material effect??? Bad People - SuperMicro Co-Founder Charged! - Super Micro shares sank 28% last Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. (NVDA chips) - The U.S. Justice Department charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-T...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #794: It’s A Drone World After-All
Mar 1801:07:30Tap to summarizeExploring Bogus oil prices Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do… Markets needed good news – Correlation high Fed on hold? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Bogus Oil Prices - Look at what Gemini and JSD can do... - Markets needed good news - Correlation high - Fed on hold? - JCD LIMERICK! Markets - Did we just correct? - Inflation - Eco that matters - Manipulation in Oil - Land? John Dvorak Jr. - Guest - UPDATE ON JCD - AH Spoke with JCD Saturday.... Oil Prices - Bogus? - The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100. - Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect? - But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation. - Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75) Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas? Gas Prices More Manipulation - The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. - US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?) - Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that. - Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008 ----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline. ------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse. ---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed Inflation and ECO - PCE Prices stay elevated - GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday. - The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. - The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December. Eco Table Oil Models...Very Cool - JSD - Explain - https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804 Department of Defense, err War, is hiring - The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit? - This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???) ----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations. - Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil???? --- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense) Did you know? - 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar - Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally - South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically - Semiconductor manufacturing - - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes). - - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers. -- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning. - - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability. - - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs. INDIA! Running out of Gas - Does it matter? - India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil - Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation - BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India? -- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India Back to this... - AI not causing job losses - WHAT ABOUT META? - Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending. Drone Warfare - New Warfare fought like games - Ender's Game Movie - Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet) Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet) Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds) Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range) --- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia Gaming Industry - DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now - Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales - Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games - Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU) - Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles - Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase - Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M) - AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside - Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Target Earnings - Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump. - Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected - Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected - Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings pe...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #793: Mission Accomplished?
Mar 1101:07:05Tap to summarizeWAR IS COMPLETE! Oil Screaming higher Euro Nat Gas up 60% An update on JCD PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - The CTP for Caterpillar - We have a winner! - A tech earnings BLOWOUT - A seminal moment with AI and Employment trends - An update on JCD - from JSD - A Limerick for JCD Markets - WAR FOOTING - Buyers are still there... - Oil Screaming higher (Sunday night wow!) - Euro Nat Gas up 60% - Anyone wondering why markets keep going up? John Dvorak Jr. - Guest - UPDATE ON JCD JSD: - Tell us what you are doing these days... - What was it like growing up around constant tech commentary and skepticism? - How did that environment shape the way you look at innovation and hype? - Where do you most disagree with your father’s views on technology today? - Is AI making people smarter—or more dependent? - How should younger professionals think about job security when automation is accelerating? War and Oil - Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, per a Reuters report. - About a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025. - Threatening to BURN any ship that attempts to go through - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical, narrow chokepoint about 90–104 miles (145–167 km) long and 21–60 miles (33–95 km) wide. At its narrowest, it is only 21 miles (33 km) across, with shipping lanes in each direction restricted to just two miles wide to accommodate massive oil tanker traffic, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption - Meanwhile - lots of production halts - Oil screamed to $115 on Sunday night before cooler heads prevailed AND SPR talk hit the tape. - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED? Just in... - President Trump says "I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible" - BUT, who would even want to take the chance of moving through that area - even if there is insurance? Meanwhile LNG -Daily charter rates for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin have surged to over $200,000 per day. - Rates are roughly double levels seen less than a day earlier. - The spike followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production as the conflict with Iran spread across the region. - The new offer levels are at least three times higher than the most recent assessed LNG tanker rate of $61,500, according to Spark Commodities earlier Monday. - Despite the elevated asking prices, no transactions have yet been confirmed at these levels. You thought that was BAD? - Europe in bad shape with Nat Gas after Qatar halted production (accounts for 20% of global LNG supply) Euro Nat Gas Amazon Data Loss - HEY WHAT ABOUT THIS? - Amazon Web Services said late Monday two of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline. - “In the UAE, two of our facilities were directly struck, while in Bahrain, a drone strike in close proximity to one of our facilities caused physical impacts to our infrastructure,” AWS said. “These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage.” - This is an interesting twist on cyber-warfare - WHAT IF? - JSD: How does this impact AI and the world tech flow? Why do/did markets keep climbing? - Global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year in the fastest yearly build-up since the pandemic surge - The increase was driven primarily by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise, with the United States, China and the euro area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the jump - Also, margin debt up 30% in 2025 - so there is that... - No wonder there is resilience in these markets... Berkshire News - Earnings from operations totaled $10.2 billion in Q4. That’s down more than 29% from $14.56 billion in the year-earlier period. - Insurance underwriting profits dropped 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion a year prior. Insurance investment income slid nearly 25% from to $3.1 billion from $4.088 billion. - This was the final quarter under Warren Buffett as CEO, who announced he was stepping down at the annual shareholders meeting last May. - Full year overall earnings, meanwhile, fell to $66.97 billion from $89 billion a year prior. - NO Buybacks, bit they still have more that $350B is cash INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Irritating - UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington. - Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade. - Market weight - no risk for this guy on the call. Can't lose as will just perform with the benchmark - DUMB Dell Earnings BLOWOUT (Follow up) - Dell reported adjusted earnings of $3.89 per share, exceeding the $3.53 per share expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG. - The company posted $33.38 billion in revenue for the quarter, topping a forecast of $31.73 billion. - Stock up 22% on the news and followed through on Monday - Dell cut quote time to less that a week (prices expire) - Dell expects revenue for its artificial intelligence servers to hit $50 billion in 2027, more than double the year prior. - Much different story from HP that was complaining about input pricing.... Obviously Dell is much smarter at pass-though management of pricing. Jack on the Attack - Financial technology firm Block (XYZ), run by Jack Dorsey began slashing more than 40% of its workforce (4k people) on Thursday, saying in a letter to shareholders that AI tools "have changed what it means to build and run a company." - The AI layoffs came as the Square payment system and Cash App operator matched fourth-quarter earnings estimates, yet Block shares surged after hours. - Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch called the layoffs "the seminal moment to date in the AI narrative and how it could transform companies as we know it going forward." - SOOOOOO -...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #792: Disrupter < Disrupters
Feb 2501:00:48Tap to summarizeDOD – Disrupter Disrupters China markets reopening after Lunar New Year Mexico Cartel Wars Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - The CTP for Caterpillar announced - DOD - Disrupter Disrupters - China markets reopening after Lunar New Year - Mexico Cartel Wars (Jalisco) Markets - Mortgage Rates - looking good! - Tariffs found illegal - that is not stopping anything - Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs - Monday's big drop and AI taking a bite out of stock prices Tariffs - First, who actually knows what is going on. 100% chaos - Supreme court ruled illegal (6-3) - 10% flat across all countries immediately added - Wait a day and make that 15% - FedEx seeks refund for illegal IEEPA tariffs imposed by Trump after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs exceeded authority - Numerous lawsuits expected for IEEPA tariff refunds - Apple has spent more than $3 billion on tariffs since President Donald Trump enacted his trade policies. What about that? (HOW TO FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE REFUND) --- Estimate that $175B tariffs have been collected alreay - A group of 22 U.S. Senate Democrats on Monday introduced legislation that would require President Donald Trump's administration to fully refund within 180 days all of the revenue, with interest, collected from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. - The legislation would require the Customs and Border Protection agency, which collects tariffs at U.S. ports of entry, to prioritize small businesses. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday Stop The Presses - After years of JCD's rants....... - Apple will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens - Apple Inc.'s initial touch Macs will have the Dynamic Island at the center top of the display and OLED screen technology. The new MacBook Pro models will have a refreshed, dynamic user interface that can shift between being optimized for touch or point-and-click input. Europe Reacts - "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal." - All active discussions are halted on any USA/Europe trade deal The Potential Winners - Brazil and China may be the winners here - Chinese President Xi Jinping has a boost in bargaining power after the US Supreme Court invalidated Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, a key point of leverage over China. - The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands. - Xi's team will likely push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, the removal of trade restrictions on Chinese companies, and reduced US support for self-ruled Taiwan, according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies. NVDA Earnings - NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Jan 2025) results tomorrow—another make-or-break moment for the AI trade. - The bar is sky-high after years of blowout beats, but whispers of "peak AI" and slowing growth momentum have investors on edge. --- Consensus Expectations : ----Revenue: ~$65.6–$66.1 billion (up ~67–68% YoY from last year's ~$39B; guided $65B ±2% in prior report) ------EPS (adjusted/non-GAAP): ~$1.50–$1.53 (up ~70–72% YoY from $0.89). --------Gross margins: Targeting ~75% non-GAAP (holding strong despite supply chain noise). -----------Key driver: Data Center segment expected to crush ~$58–$60B, fueled by Blackwell ramp and hyperscaler spend. Home Depot Earnings - The home-improvement retailer gained 2.7% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share on revenues of $38.20 billion. - That exceeded the per-share earnings of $2.54 on revenues of $38.12 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. AMD News - The semiconductor maker rose about 11% after it inked a multiyear deal with Meta to lend up to 6 gigawatts of its graphics processing units to artificial intelligence data centers. - The cost of the deal is unclear, but the companies’ agreement includes a a performance-based warrant that could amount to up to 160 million of AMD shares, according to a statement dated Tuesday. - Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD's Instinct GPUs (high-end graphics processing units optimized for AI workloads) to power its massive AI data centers. - Analysts estimate the GPU portion alone could be worth $60–$100+ billion over 5+ years Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily, matching its lowest levels since 2022. - Last year at this time the rate was 6.89%. - A buyer putting 20% down on the median priced home, about $400,000 according to the National Association of Realtors, would have a monthly payment of $1,916 for the principal and interest. One year ago, that payment would have been $2,105, a difference of $189. Life Insurance Record - Manulife Financial Corp. sold a $300 million life insurance policy in Singapore, topping what Guinness World Records certified as the most valuable policy ever issued. - The policy surpasses the previous record of $250 million, set by HSBC Life in Hong Kong in 2024. Manulife said in a statement Tuesday that the deal reflects growing demand from ultra-wealthy clients to preserve their assets. - In Singapore over the past 12 months, Manulife has issued 25 individual policies each worth more than $50 million. Bitcoin Rout - Gemini said it was axing as much as a quarter of its staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia entirely. - This week, it parted with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, all in a single day. - Its stock has fallen more than 80% from a post-listing high last year, collapsing its market value from a peak of almost $4 billion to under $700 million. Over the Greenland - USA sending a "hospital ship" over - Trump's post on the ship came hours after Denmark's Joint Arctic Command said it had evacuated a crew member who required urgent medical treatment from a U.S. submarine in Greenlandic waters, seven nautical miles outside of Greenland's capital, Nuuk. - Greenland said thanks but no thanks So Long! - U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive. - In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010 AI Disruption - DOD (Disruption of Disrupters) - CrowdStrike -9.8% and other cybersecurity names under heavy pressure again as AI disruption fears build following Anthropic’s Claude Code release - - Cybersecurity stocks are under broad pressure today, extending recent weakness following Friday's launch of Claude Code Security by Anthropic. Claude Code Security scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests software patches for human review, fueling a narrative that AI platforms may be moving more quickly into parts of the security workflow t...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #791: AI Overload
Feb 1801:10:35Tap to summarizeSelf Created Valuation Boosts Apple Announces new Podcast push AI – A breakdown Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - A NEW CTP just announced - China releasing new AI models - AI - A breakdown - we are on overload - Big Employment news.... Markets - Self Created Valuation Boosts - Apple Announces new Podcast push - Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show..... No Agenda... Olympics - Anything to discuss? MONEY FOR ALL - The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS. - The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night. - As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only. - This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation.. Emplyment - 4.3% - "Better" than expected payrolls number - A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods. - Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example: By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000. By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000. - Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000). - The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches. - In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year. AI Updates - While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist’s tools on software and financial services, China’s tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation. - Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models - However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge. - Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks. - Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google’s Gemini 3 Pro on some tests. - Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools. Grok Update - Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors. - U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia. - Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025) AI Market Share - ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period. AI Market Share InfoGrapic and AI Understanding - Have we gone through this? - At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems. - Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule. - Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer. Contrast with training (the "learning" phase): ------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples. ------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly. - gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help. "Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine. AI Infographic Last AI Item - A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse. - The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply. - The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector. Here is something: - Gallup will...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #790: Hang On!
Feb 1101:06:59Tap to summarizeSilver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) Hang on – Wild ride here Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! Shakeup in Dietville PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) - Need a stock for CTP - Hang on - Wild ride here - Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - Shakeup in Dietville Markets - Massive moved during the week - - Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding - DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time - Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026 Superbowl and Superbowl ads - Game review - Any ad stick out? - $10M per ad this year - Half Time with Bad Bunny? - Anthropic busting on OpenAi Last Week! - Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names. - HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap AI Ripping Through - Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements - First it was the software companies - Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked - Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space Earnings Season Update - Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results. - Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line) - Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better) - Nothing great, like Goldilocks Earnings Highlights - Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks). - AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages). - Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions. Recent Tech CAPEX announcements - Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services. - Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase). - Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025). ------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025. Market Reaction from all of this.... - Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood - Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure. - Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B) - BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc. Other Earnings of Interest - Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines. - The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million. - Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program. - Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs While we are on the subject - Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever! - Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs Hats off to WalMart - Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever| - Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience. Google Bond Offering - Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years - Would you buy that? - The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK. - The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s Fat Profits in Dietville - Really interesting sequence of events happening... - Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month - Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill - Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch - Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises THEN.. - Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday) - FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law. AND.... - Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight lo...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #789: Crash Test For Dummies
Feb 401:05:40Tap to summarizeWORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows ...
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