WAR IS COMPLETE!

Oil Screaming higher

Euro Nat Gas up 60%

An update on JCD

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Warm-Up
- The CTP for Caterpillar - We have a winner!
- A tech earnings BLOWOUT
- A seminal moment with AI and Employment trends
- An update on JCD - from JSD
- A Limerick for JCD

Markets
- WAR FOOTING - Buyers are still there...
- Oil Screaming higher (Sunday night wow!)
- Euro Nat Gas up 60%
- Anyone wondering why markets keep going up?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCD

JSD:
- Tell us what you are doing these days...
- What was it like growing up around constant tech commentary and skepticism?
- How did that environment shape the way you look at innovation and hype?
- Where do you most disagree with your father’s views on technology today?
- Is AI making people smarter—or more dependent?
- How should younger professionals think about job security when automation is accelerating?

War and Oil
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, per a Reuters report.
- About a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025.
- Threatening to BURN any ship that attempts to go through
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical, narrow chokepoint about 90–104 miles (145–167 km) long and 21–60 miles (33–95 km) wide. At its narrowest, it is only 21 miles (33 km) across, with shipping lanes in each direction restricted to just two miles wide to accommodate massive oil tanker traffic, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption
- Meanwhile - lots of production halts - Oil screamed to $115 on Sunday night before cooler heads prevailed AND SPR talk hit the tape.
- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?

Just in...
- President Trump says "I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible"
- BUT, who would even want to take the chance of moving through that area - even if there is insurance?

Meanwhile LNG
-Daily charter rates for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin have surged to over $200,000 per day.
- Rates are roughly double levels seen less than a day earlier.
- The spike followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production as the conflict with Iran spread across the region.
- The new offer levels are at least three times higher than the most recent assessed LNG tanker rate of $61,500, according to Spark Commodities earlier Monday.
- Despite the elevated asking prices, no transactions have yet been confirmed at these levels.

You thought that was BAD?
- Europe in bad shape with Nat Gas after Qatar halted production (accounts for 20% of global LNG supply)

Euro Nat Gas

Amazon Data Loss - HEY WHAT ABOUT THIS?
- Amazon Web Services said late Monday two of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline.
- “In the UAE, two of our facilities were directly struck, while in Bahrain, a drone strike in close proximity to one of our facilities caused physical impacts to our infrastructure,” AWS said. “These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage.”
- This is an interesting twist on cyber-warfare - WHAT IF?
- JSD: How does this impact AI and the world tech flow?

Why do/did markets keep climbing?
- Global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year in the fastest yearly build-up since the pandemic surge
- The increase was driven primarily by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise, with the United States, China and the euro area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the jump
- Also, margin debt up 30% in 2025 - so there is that...
- No wonder there is resilience in these markets...

Berkshire News
- Earnings from operations totaled $10.2 billion in Q4. That’s down more than 29% from $14.56 billion in the year-earlier period.
- Insurance underwriting profits dropped 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion a year prior. Insurance investment income slid nearly 25% from to $3.1 billion from $4.088 billion.
- This was the final quarter under Warren Buffett as CEO, who announced he was stepping down at the annual shareholders meeting last May.
- Full year overall earnings, meanwhile, fell to $66.97 billion from $89 billion a year prior.
- NO Buybacks, bit they still have more that $350B is cash

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Irritating
- UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.
- Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.
- Market weight - no risk for this guy on the call. Can't lose as will just perform with the benchmark - DUMB

Dell Earnings BLOWOUT (Follow up)
- Dell reported adjusted earnings of $3.89 per share, exceeding the $3.53 per share expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG.
- The company posted $33.38 billion in revenue for the quarter, topping a forecast of $31.73 billion.
- Stock up 22% on the news and followed through on Monday
- Dell cut quote time to less that a week (prices expire)
- Dell expects revenue for its artificial intelligence servers to hit $50 billion in 2027, more than double the year prior.
- Much different story from HP that was complaining about input pricing.... Obviously Dell is much smarter at pass-though management of pricing.

Jack on the Attack
- Financial technology firm Block (XYZ), run by Jack Dorsey began slashing more than 40% of its workforce (4k people) on Thursday, saying in a letter to shareholders that AI tools "have changed what it means to build and run a company."
- The AI layoffs came as the Square payment system and Cash App operator matched fourth-quarter earnings estimates, yet Block shares surged after hours.
- Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch called the layoffs "the seminal moment to date in the AI narrative and how it could transform companies as we know it going forward."
- SOOOOOO -...