A surprising payroll report

The quick war – not over just yet

Food inflation coming

Economics – a bright spot and surprising report last week

Space issues – Space sewage

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Warm-Up
- A surprising payroll report
- The quick war - not over just yet
- Food inflation coming
- Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week
- Space issues - Space sewage
- 8PM - End of Civilization?

Markets
- March sucked - that is the report
- 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss
- OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory
- Market Manipulation - say it ain't so!

Oil
- Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual
- WTI ~ $116 Brent ~ $109
- Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW
- WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that...
- Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusual

BUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization?
- Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations
- Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait
- YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2%
---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?)

In Process - In Theory - Framework
- OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output
- OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for May

Apple Foldable Flop
- Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays.
- Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device.
- Engineering problems they say....

Closing this Discussion
- Bored with this....But...
- OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
- The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced.
- OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors.

The 1st Quarter Misery
- Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot.
- The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq,
- Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT.
- SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD
- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter

1st Quarter Happiness
- Energy Sector up 30%
- Materials up 10%
- Utilities up 10%
- Oil up almost 100%
- EM still positive for 2026

Latest Eco
- Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.
- The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
- Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.
-Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.
- March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1%
- - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics
------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressures

Inflation
- Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher
- - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening
- Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026
- Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary)

No View
- Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.
- Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs
- Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers
- Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government
- Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see us

Dems probing stock trades
- Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements.
- Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples.
- Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related trades

The Final Frontier
- The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon.
- The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space.
--- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems
- NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes.
---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements.
-------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean.
-------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position.

Earnings Season
- Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle)
- The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains.
- Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022.
- But what about the outlook?????????????????

Mag 7 Earnings expectations
- Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction.
Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion.
Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth.
Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline.
Growth within mega-cap tec...

DHUnplugged #797: Transitory War Pricing