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DHUnplugged Podcast
Hosted by Horowitz and Dvorak · EN
DHUnplugged Podcast
27episodes
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DHUnplugged #788: TTM and Back
Jan 2801:05:41Tap to summarizeSilver and Gold – Still Going. Big week for earnings. Fed decision on Wednesday. Nat Gas price exploding higher. US Dollar drops hard over past few days. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - What we learned from Davos - President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off - January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying - S&P 500: All-time highs going into earnings Markets - Silver and Gold - Still Going - Big week for earnings - Fed decision on Wednesday - Nat Gas price exploding - US Dollar drops hard over past few days Can't Keep Track Anymore -Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year. - In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS". - South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February - KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news - S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments Davos - 2026 - What we learned - Not much - Same bifurcated view of the world - Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan" - So, no tariffs - (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....) Gold and Silver - Off to the races - Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day - Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move - GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust) - Gold above $5,000 per ounce - - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up| - USD weakness Economy - Still Strong - The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. - Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. - Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter. Amazon - Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan - First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder - CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues ---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point? - Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce - Company still has 1.5 million employees Comeback? - Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned. - Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked - Frontier tried - Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked Booz Cancelled - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times. - The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.” - Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement. - Why does Booz have tax records in the first place? - Stock down 50% since end of 2024 Private Credit - BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy - The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025. - This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter. - The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025. - Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33% Zoom Communications - Valuation of Anthropic stake - The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet. - From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln. - This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo. - Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth. UNH and Health Stocks - DOWN 20% today - The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026. - The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits. - UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers: - - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%. - - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%. Tech Earnings Microsoft (MSFT) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations: Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion - Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth - Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations: EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion - Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth - Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy. Tesla (TSLA) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Ex...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #787: The Elitists Convene
Jan 2101:05:16Tap to summarizeHere we go again – Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs DAVOS – Elitists are Meeting Suicide Coaches? Hedge funds – finally a good year! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs - DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting - Suicide Coaches? - Hedge funds - finally a good year! Markets - Silver and Gold - ATH - Selling off after Greenland threat - Netflix - Saga continues Davos - 2026 - Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists) - Many watch for their key points and do the opposite - Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not - Why is Zelensky going? - Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump - Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair. - The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc) World Economic Forum Report (Davos) - Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year - Rising Inflation - Economic Downturn - Asset Bubbles - High debt burdens - Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list WEF List NEXT - Greenland - Sell or Else! - Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through - The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said. - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland - Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland - Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats - 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron) Oh - and Gaza - The new Board of Peace - Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan - Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. - Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board. - Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict... Saks - bankrupt - Chapter 11 - Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus) - Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. - Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024, a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.” - Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn’t heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. - Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon’s website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.| - Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.” Suicide Coaches - “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. - In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They’re addictive, they’re not good for you.” - “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you’re kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.” China - China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018 - Dec new yuan loans beat forecast - PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing - "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy." - Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets. - Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally. - - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold. - - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one. --- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators’ efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets. More China - China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year. - After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births - Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949 - Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers. Bank Earnings - Generally pretty good! - Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening - Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc. - Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses. - Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management. Fed Chair - Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore) - Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners - Who ever kisses the most ass should win - Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed - Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign) Netflix/Warner Brothers Update - Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD’s streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio. - In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance - The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD - NFLX Earnings ..... --- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated ------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated - Stock down AH Inflation (Did we talk about this?) - Even though we are told there is little infl...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #786: All In A Weeks Work
Jan 1401:00:50Tap to summarizeGreenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia – USA is the world’s Cop again? More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie – all in week’s work.. Retail investors in control – don’t care about the noise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia - USA is the world's Cop again? - More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie - all in week's work.. - Retail investors in control - don't care about the noise Markets - DJIA plowing ahead - NASDAQ on fire - what can stop this? - Nuclear stocks back in play - Defense names on the move - Interesting economic news. FIRST - President Donald Trump said drug “cartels are running Mexico,” and suggested the U.S. military could start land strikes against them there. - The comments come on the heels of suggestions that Trump could take military action in Cuba and Colombia, and to annex Greenland. - The Trump administration has reportedly carried out 35 known strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, killing 115 individuals. - I will be going to Mexico later this week for a couple of days..... Retail Ruling - Retail traders have extended a buying spree into the new year, following a record-setting performance in 2025, with purchases in the first four trading days of January hitting the second-highest level in almost eight months. - Individual investors have bought about $10.1 billion of US equities since the start of the year, mainly via exchange-traded funds, far exceeding the 12-month weekly average. - Retail investors' confidence has helped stabilize markets during recent pullbacks, and if they keep snapping up equities, gains in the US stock market are likely to persist, according to analysts. Employment Report - 4.4% Unemployment Rate - Nonfarm Payroll Employment: U.S. employers added +50,000 jobs in December 2025. This came in below economists' expectations (consensus around 60,000–73,000) and was a slowdown from the downwardly revised +56,000 in November. - Unemployment Rate: Edged down slightly to 4.4% (from a revised 4.5% in November), contrary to forecasts of 4.5%. The number of unemployed people remained around 7.5 million, showing little change. - Full-Year 2025 Performance: Total payroll growth for the year was just +584,000 jobs (average monthly gain of +49,000), marking one of the weakest years for hiring since 2020 (impacted by the pandemic). This is a sharp drop from +2.0 million added in 2024 (average +168,000 monthly). -Revisions to Prior Months: -- October 2025: Revised down to -173,000 (from -105,000, reflecting federal government buyouts and shutdown effects). -- November 2025: Revised down by 8,000 to +56,000. -- Combined October–November: 76,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. GDP - HOT - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voting FOMC member) on CNBC says it is very surprising how strong GDP growth is; says labor market is clearly cooling; says inflation still too high; has confidence housing inflation will trend down - Q3 at +3.8% and Atlanta GDP NOW is predicting that Q4 will come in at +5.1% More Eco - Productivity (Prelim Q3): 4.9% vs. 2.5% consensus - Productivity measures output per hour worked. A jump to 4.9% (almost double the consensus) suggests businesses are producing much more per labor hour than expected. Prior was revised up to 4.1% from 3.3%, so the trend is strengthening. WOW! Unit Labor Costs (Prelim Q3): -1.9% vs. +0.8% consensus - Unit labor costs measure labor cost per unit of output. A negative number means costs per unit are falling. Prior revised to -2.9% from +1.0%, so costs have been dropping sharply. -Could be due to technology adoption, automation, or efficiency improvements. Post-pandemic restructuring and leaner operations may have boosted output without adding labor. OOOOOOOPS - White House official says Truth Social disclosure of December jobs report was an "inadvertent release"; says White House will review protocols - CNBC What next? - President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details. - Trump wrote on social media that the American Public will no longer be "ripped off" by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more. - Maybe because of this: Hours before his message on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, said on X: “Trump promised to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and stop Wall Street from getting away with murder. Instead, he deregulated big banks charging up to 30% interest on credit cards.” - BUT! Credit card companies will not be forced to issue credit - right? It will hurt people that need credit for business, personal or other needs. Then there was this: - Mortgage rates fell sharply on Friday, a day after President Donald Trump said on social media that he is instructing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. - “This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he said in the Truth Social post. - Still not clear where the money will come from and hot this actually works with the current structure of Fannie and Freddie - Talk of Fannie/Freddie IPO? --- Both are still still in conservatorship and book value per share still negative - SO WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM? OHHHHH - How about this - 4PM browbeating for the Defense companies - RTX was in the hotseat (as were others) taking the wrath of Pres Trump saying that they were basically fat and happy and ripping off the taxpayer - No more dividends and no more buybacks was the call - Stocks dropped 5% into the close and then more after - 30 minutes later - conversation changed and the idea of a move from $1T in spending for the defense budget should move to $1.5T in 2027. ----- Where does that money come from? - Stocks JUMPED! Can't Ignore this - Trump suggesting that Corporations and institutional investors cannot buy single family homes - “People live in homes, not corporations,” he said. - The argument is that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans. - It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. - Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%. Then there is this... - DOJ putting he screws to Powell - The Trump administration has ramped up its pressure campaign on the U.S. central bank, threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments he made to Congress about a building renovation project, prompting the Fed chief to call the move a "pretext" to gain more influence over the ?setting of interest rates. - The latest development in a long-running effort by U.S. President Donald Trump to push the Fed to dramatically lower rates had immediate fallout in Washington and on global markets. - Powell came out with a video over the weekend. - Initially futures were down <1% - market opened all all ok... With all of that.... - What are we not seeing any news about? - EPSTEIN FILES Nuclear back in Front - Meta Platforms Inc. is set to bec...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #785: January Effect
Jan 701:03:40Tap to summarizeLOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? Upgrades all around the AI trade again… January Effect Defense and Oil Related – Let’s Go! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - CTP Cup - We have a winner! - Kitchen Cabinets rejoice! - Buffett is retired (kind of) - ALL TIME HIGHS - DJIA Leading so far in 2026 Markets - LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? - Upgrades all around the AI trade again... - January Effect - Defense and Oil Related! - Calling BS on Venezuela economic plans Doctor Copper - Copper surpassed $13,000 a ton for the first time due to a renewed rush to ship metal to the US. - The rally has been underpinned by the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Donald Trump, causing US copper prices to trade at a premium to those on the London Metal Exchange. - The market has been driven by uncertainty over future US tariff policy, with analysts warning that the rest of the world could run short of copper due to low inventories outside the US. - Huge inventory build due to uncertainty Copper Chart Following up on that...Some Questions - Isn't the massive inventory build we are seeing due to uncertainly? - Lots bought before tariffs went into effect - then tariffs reduced... - Will there be a hangover from a the pull-forward like we have seen in the past? Best markets for 2025 Colombia: +80% South Korea (KOSPI): +76% Ghana: +79% Brazil (Bovespa): +34% Japan (Nikkei 225): +26% Europe STOXX 600: +19% China (Shanghai Composite): +18% U.S. S&P 500: +17% U.S. Nasdaq: +21% U.S. Dow Jones: +12% US Dollar - Basket USD is at 8 year LOW - Yen at key intervention level (again) - NO MANIPULATION HERE! -- -- Gold/Silver betting trend continues... - What happened to -> "a strong USD is in the best interests of the USA"? Monday Markets - For no apparent reason....(could it be the Venezuela news???) - Markets JUMPED - Oil and Defense stocks moved! - DJIA up ~ 600 Points ---These stocks were about 500 points of the 600: - GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc - CAT Caterpillar Inc - JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co - CVX Chevron Corp - V Visa Inc ---- GS is 1/2 the DJIA gains for 2026 Here we go... - Elon Musk's Grok is generating sexualized images of women and minors - users are taking pictures of others and telling Grok to "remove their clothes" or "put them in a thong bikini" - review of public requests sent to Grok over a single 10-minute-long period at midday U.S. Eastern Time last Friday tallied 102 attempts by X users to use Grok to digitally edit photographs of people so that they would appear to be wearing bikinis. - Politicians in France ask prosecutors to investigate; India demands answers - Experts have long warned Grok owner xAI about potential misuses of AI-generated content - Ministers in France have reported X to prosecutors and regulators over the disturbing images, saying in a statement on Friday the "sexual and sexist" content was "manifestly illegal." India's IT ministry said in a letter to X's local unit that the platform failed to prevent Grok's misuse by generating and circulating obscene and sexually explicit content. - Guardrails not very tight along the track - Surprised? TESLA - Sales awful - Stock holdingup - BYD Co. outsold Tesla Inc. in Europe’s two largest electric-vehicle markets last year as the Chinese automaker continues its global expansion. - BYD registered more than twice as many new vehicles in December as Tesla did in Germany, and outperformed Tesla in the UK with 51,422 registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513. - BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million, and has made strong inroads in the UK where Chinese brands have been attracting consumers with cheaper sticker prices. - NVDA announced it is expanding autonomous driving sector INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   Silver and Gold - As we predicted - Gold and silver prices fell Wednesday after exchange operator CME Group again hiked the margins on precious metal futures. - CME Group said in a statement Tuesday that the decision was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.” - That caused some to sell positions to bring margin requirement in check - - Should be temporary until metals find their margin equilibrium Bitcoin - Starting the year off right - Up 7% in 2026 after a very poor 2025 - Crypto moving as well - Safe haven trade, catch up trade or who-knows-what-the-hell trade? January Effect - The January Effect is a market phenomenon where stock prices—especially small-cap stocks—tend to rise more in January than in other months. - Tax-loss selling in December: Investors often sell losing positions at year-end to offset capital gains for tax purposes. - Reinvestment in January: After the new year, they buy back stocks, creating upward pressure. - Bonus and cash inflows: Year-end bonuses and new investment allocations often hit the market in January. - Small-caps up almost 3% YTD Impressive - Investors fortunate enough to own Berkshire since 1965, when Buffett took over, realized a return of about 6,100,000%, far above the S&P 500's approximately 46,000% return including dividends. - Buffett is now officially retired - said to be one (or the) greatest investors of our time - Buffett, 95, will remain chairman and plans to keep going every day to Berkshire's office in Omaha, Nebraska, about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of his home, and help Abel. - They still have not completely figured out who will run the equity portfolio after Todd Combs left to join JPM Kitchen Cabinet Relief - Steep tariffs on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities have been delayed by the Trump administration. - It’s the latest roller coaster of Trump's tariff wars since he returned to office last year. - The administration is also scaling back on a steep tariff proposed on Italian pasta that would have put the rate at 107%. Let's talk Venezuela - The idea that the US is just going to come in an turn everything rosy is dumb - overly simplistic thesis --- Sets up a bad global potential for overthrowing governments - where does it stop - The idea that US companies are going to go in there and drill and US is going to reimburse for costs? --- The country is allied with Russia and China - not US (at this time) - This is reminiscent of when we opened the doors to Cuba - we opened it up and no one benefited. Maybe this t...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #784: Auld Lang Xiety
Dec 3101:03:01Tap to summarizeLooking at a weird GDP data point. Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks. Gold and Silver – WOW! Closing out the year – a good one too! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - Lots to be excited about and anxious too - Looking at a weird GDP data point - Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks Markets - Gold and Silver - WOW! - Closing out the year - a good one too! - Buyers are still hot to buy any dip - "Diet" pills coming Bitters Making Progress - Chocolate -Dark Cherry -Infusions - https://highdesertbotanicals.com NYE Celebration - Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects: - Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp. - Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs. - Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato. - Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside! - In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month - Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck. What a year! - So many themes in 12 months - AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization - Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems. - Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30% - 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names) Top New Year's Resolutions - Exercise More - Eat Healthier - Save More Money/Get Out of Debt - Be Happy/Improve Mental Health - Lose Weight - Spend More Time with Family & Friends - Learn a New Skill/Hobby - Get Organized Active Management (Funds) - Same report annually - A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade. - Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion. - The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007. - BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management ---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning --- Efficient markets, boots on the ground Fat Pill - The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. - Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month. - The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill. - Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January PowerBall - A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas. - The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday. - The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19 - Odds: one in 292.2 million. Silver - Amazing year! - Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower| - Down 7% on Monday - Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day - Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering.... ----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but..... SoKo Breach - South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month. - That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit - $34 per user NVDA Deal - Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday. - Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny. - Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report. - Groq will remain an independent company (?) GDP Consumption - Something is a bit off.... - With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure Q3 GDP Surge Russia/Ukraine - Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace - Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence - Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore? - Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards! - - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits? - While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts) Oil - Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD - Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand) - Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc - What will it take to move up? Best Auto Stock for 2025? - GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009 - Ford up 35% - Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year) - - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now? --- Would she ever say shares are overvalued? More fun stats - A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year - Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems l...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #783: Santa Is That You?
Dec 2400:59:02Tap to summarizePatriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison’s personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery’s board had expressed about Paramount’s original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won’t back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok’s US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month’s inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.” Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells’ pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles’ behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump’s executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon’s Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. <sp...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #761: Running of The Bulls
Jul 23, 202501:09:05Tap to summarizeBack from Vacation – refreshed? Fun with Coldplay! A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing Sugar in the news…. The REAL running of the bulls – bad things happen PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Back from Vacation - refreshed? - Fun with Coldplay! - Sugar in the news.... - The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen Markets - Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week - Some earnings to discuss - A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing - Markets react to Trump/Fed comments - YUGE deal with Japan Market Update Top to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months) Bottom to Recovery of Loss - (2 months) Now overshot and climbing to new ATH DJIA up 4.8% SP500 Up 7.69% NASDAQ up 9% Bitcoin Up 24% Emerging Markets up 24% USD down 10% Gold up 24% Copper up 35% Small Caps up 0.95% Apple DOWN 14% YTD Sectors Staring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025??? What to do? - Here we go again... - I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them.... -- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?) - If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right? Lessons - Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave. - Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night. - “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.” - PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things! NETFLIX Earnings - Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales. - Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. -Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection - Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????) - Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTD Impressive - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong. - The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint. - - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected - - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion On the Other Hand - ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter. - ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year. - Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report - ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for producing cutting-edge semiconductor chips. These machines are used by top chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to fabricate chips with features as small as a few nanometers JAPAN DEAL - We have a huge deal - no specifics but really big - 15% tariffs on goods - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday stateside announced that he had made the “largest Deal ever” with Japan, that involves “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S. - In a post on Truth Social, Trump also said that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States, adding that the U.S. will “receive 90% of the Profits.” OpenIA and Google - OpenAI said Wednesday that it expects to use Google’s cloud infrastructure for its popular ChatGPT artificial intelligence assistant. - The reach for additional capacity aligns with OpenAI’s desire for more computing power to meet heavy demand after initially relying exclusively on Microsoft for cloud capacity. The two companies’ relations have evolved since then, with Microsoft naming OpenAI as a competitor last year. -- Theory - Google (struggling to maintain its existence in a post-search world) gave them a really "competitive" pricing to win this account - hoping others will follow EVEN MORE~! - OpenAI is close to releasing an AI-powered web browser that will challenge Alphabet’s market-dominating Google Chrome. - The browser is slated to launch in the coming weeks, three of the people said, and aims to use artificial intelligence to fundamentally change how consumers browse the web. It will give OpenAI more direct access to a cornerstone of Google’s success: user data. Trial Balloon - Comments that Trump will "FIRE" Powell last week sparked a quick sell-off in stocks and bonds. (A key Trump advisor made those comments) - But all that was reversed within an hour as Trump said that was not true - Stories about potential fraud charges due to cost overruns with refurb of the Fed's office building. (Cost now $2.5 Billion!) - DID SOME DIGGING: Once construction began, the general contractor came across unexpected asbestos in the building, toxic soil contamination and a higher-than-expected water table, the Journal said. - Inflation was a problem, too. Budget documents released at the end of last year showed “significant increases” in the cost of steel, cement, wood and other materials that “far exceed standard cost escalations,” the Journal reported. - There were also changes to the scope - the agency added high-cost below-ground square footage to its office building adjacent to its historic headquarters to offset space it lost after the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts asked it to nix plans for a five-story tower addition. Fed Push-back - Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank is quietly pushing back with a new “Frequently Asked Questions” page on its website defending the central bank’s $2.5 billion renovation project. - The project aims to modernize the Federal Reserve’s campus by renovating three buildings overlooking the National Mall and adding a visitors center. - “It involves a complete overhaul and modernization that preserves two historic buildings that have not been comprehensively renovated since their construction in the 1930s,” according to the Fed’s web page, which went up one day aft...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #760: Full Court Press
Jul 9, 202500:59:39Tap to summarizeOBBBA written into law! Big week for Coney Island The American Party – Musk taking a shot Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - OBBBA written into law! - Big week for Coney Island - The American Party - Musk taking a shot - Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening - BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS! Markets - ATH before the July 4th break - Jobs numbers - a bit surprising - Tariff threats are back - full court press is on! -- Letters are going out! - NVDA - History in the making THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before! Earnings Season According to Factset: - During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual. - The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30. - While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%. - Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%. - Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline. --- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed. ELON - On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts." - He can't be President, what are his aspirations here? Joey, Joey, Joey - Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year. - In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium Tariffs - After OBBBA - good time to start this up again - Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress. - Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate. Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals. - Johnny:I am going to count to three! - Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” - Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. - Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday.. - Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday. OOPS THERE IT IS! - Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care China and Trade Deal - GE Aerospace has received U.S. government approval to resume jet engine shipments to China's COMAC, following a period of suspension due to trade tensions. This decision allows GE to supply engines for COMAC's aircraft programs, including the LEAP-1C for the C919 and the CF34 for the C909. - Again, nothing more or less, just putting things back to g3ther after Humpty Dumpty broke into pieces on Liberation Day CELEBRATION - It’s now OK to keep your shoes on at some airports checkpoints - The Transportation Safety Administration will allow passengers at selected airports to keep their footwear on as they go through security checkpoints, a senior government official tells NBC News. - People in screening lanes will have to keep their shoes on at selected airports, but the source said the relaxation of the rules could expand nationwide in the near future. TSA Lines OBBBA - Some highlights OBBBA Highlights Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Economic Boost - Now that there is "no tax" on tips - do we tip less? Seems like we should back off by 25% on the 15-18% customary. New 2026 customary 13%? Which would in effect be more money in our pockets to spend and boost the economy! SMART! - Foodservers/Tips Related workers could save up to about $3,000 a year in taxes if you can take full deduction ($25,000 of tips excluded through 2028) - Overtime workers get a deduction - Overtime: -The OBBBA also provides a temporary above-the-line deduction for qualified overtime compensation. Overtime pay is exempt from federal income tax up to: - $12,500 for individuals - $25,000 for married couples filing jointly - The deduction phases out for MAGI above $150,000 (individuals) or $300,000 (joint filers). - Qualified overtime includes pay mandated by the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) that exceeds the employee’s regular rate. - Employers must report total overtime compensation on W-2 forms to support the deduction. - Payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare) still apply to overtime pay Employment Report - Job Growth: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June. - Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May. - Private Sector: Private sector job growth was weaker, with some sectors experiencing job losses. - Government Employment: Government employment saw gains, with state and local governments adding jobs. - Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in June and 3.7% over the year. - Workweek: The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours. ---Takeaway - Gov...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #759: MSGA
Jul 2, 202501:01:10Tap to summarizeMonth/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy Banks got some good news – you can’t have a prolonged rally without the financial sector Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - More companies are doing this again.. - Make Showering Great Again! MSGA - - - Twitter Poll - - New ways to buy stocks via tokens - Musk/Trump Feuding Again Markets - Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy - Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector - Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement - ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) Historically... - Once we know the pattern - we know what usually happens next! Stocks by Month Circle (CRCL) - MONDAY: Circle reverses ground after initially trading lower on JP Morgan initiation at Underweight and $80 price target. - Note that several analysts' targets came in above $200. - Stock down 15% since we mentioned last week (short idea) Good News for Showering? MSGA - As we know, Trump has railed against modern dishwashers, washing machines, light bulbs, showerheads and toilets, claiming that onerous government regulations render them less effective and more expensive. - On April 9, Trump issued an executive order directing certain federal agencies “to incorporate a sunset provision” into a laundry list of energy production regulations, including those covering appliances. A month later, he issued a memorandum, entitled “Rescission of Useless Water Pressure Standards.” - Following that, on May 12, the Department of Energy announced that it was preparing to eliminate or modify 47 federal regulations “that are driving up costs and lowering quality of life for the American people.” - Many of the rules are covered in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), a decades-old law that mandates energy-efficiency and water-conservation standards for home appliances and plumbing fixtures. - Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency said it is planning to eliminate the Energy Star program, a popular voluntary initiative that manufacturers employ to rank their appliances based on energy conservation and cost savings, displayed on familiar blue labeling at retail as comparison-shopping guides. - Twitter Poll Twitter Poll Just in.... - Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Senate narrowly passed the legislation Tuesday and will now be considered by the House of Representatives. The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden. Next Level? - Robinhood launches stock tokens, reveals Layer 2 blockchain, and expands crypto suite in EU and US with perpetual futures and staking - With tokenized stocks, our European app transitions from being a crypto-only app to an all-in-one investment app powered by crypto. - European customers will have access to 200+ US stock and ETF tokens. Stock token holders will also receive dividend payments directly in their app. Big Beautiful - Clears first hurdle in the Senate (procedural) - Needs to get going on the rest if they want to have it signed into legislation by July 4th - Musk very vocal about the fact it is it is "utterly insane" - Musk says: will “destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” in a post on X. MUSK not happy - Elon does not like the massive spending bill - which it looks like - not the cuts they promised - Elon poking at the Republicans that vote for it and Trump not happy - Now Trump says he is going to send DOGE in to check out all the money the government is spending on Elon's businesses. Says if cut could save the country lots of money. No Surprise - Twenty-two of the largest banks in the U.S. are well-positioned to weather a hypothetical severe economic downturn and continue lending, with firms maintaining robust capital levels even after suffering hundreds of billions of dollars in losses, the Federal Reserve reported on Friday. - The results of the U.S. central bank's annual "stress test" of large banks' finances found firms remain resilient in the face of a potential recession, a spike in unemployment, and market turmoil. - The optimistic showing could lead to banks upping how much excess capital they plan to distribute to shareholders via dividends or stock buybacks. - Monday Headline: Goldman Sachs +2.6% trades to new all-time high, trades above $700 level for first time; move follows Fed bank stress test results late Friday --- The XLF (Financial Sector ETF) trading near all-time highs Florida - Do We Love This? - Alligator Alcatraz - Florida AG proposes 'Alligator Alcatraz' migrant detention center in Everglades - In a video statement on Friday, Uthmeier announced the plan to build a temporary migrant detention center on a 39-square-mile parcel in the Everglades. - "This is an airport that's already there. Clearly, from a security perspective, if someone escapes, you know, there are a lot of alligators you're going to have to contend with. No one's going anywhere once you do that. It's a safe and secure as can be," the governor said. Oh Cana-DUH - President Donald Trump said Friday that he had terminated trade discussions with Canada, citing an incoming Canadian tax on tech companies including those based in the U.S. - In a post on Truth Social, Trump referred to Canada as "a very difficult country to trade with" and said that its levy on tech firms — the first payment for which is due Monday — "is a direct and blatant attack on our Country." -"Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately," he said. "We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period." - By Sunday night, Canada dropped their digital tax so they can resume talks Going Down - A massive cargo ship carrying an estimated 3,000 vehicles capsized in international waters this week, causing it to sink, according to the US Coast Guard. - The Morning Midas, operated by the London-based company Zodiac Maritime, sank on Monday, June 23, around 5:30 p.m., officials said. The incident occurred about 450 miles southwest of Adak, Alaska. - According to the Coast Guard, the ship carried 1,530 metric t...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #758: Dropping the Hammer
Jun 25, 202501:03:59Tap to summarizeWAR! (or is it?) Tesla Robotaxi Update Japan’s rice problem Drink up! New guidelines coming… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - WAR! (or is it?) - Tesla Robotaxi Update - Japan's rice problem - Drink up! New guidelines coming... Markets - Not phased by Iranian attack - (well planned attack for markets - timing, newsflow and narrative of "successful mission") - A ceasefire now - quick wars! - P/E forward nearing 22 - Leading indicators - dropping - VERY Resilient overall - dips are for buying - NASDAQ 100 closing in on all-time highs - triple top Dropping the F Bomb - 7am CNBC - " Two counties that have been that have been fighting so long and so hard that they do not know what the "F***ck" they are doing" Oil - Drops from high of $78 to $66 - Iran bombing news spikes the price on Sunday night - and then....free fall.... Tesla - Everyone is a flutter about the RoboTaxi test in Austin - Stock moved up 10% on the news Monday -- Everyone knows it is a long haul - but the hope and the promise is something that investors live on - Tesla Robotaxis spotted speeding, making improper turns on first day of service, according to Bloomberg HAMMER - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, in a news conference Sunday, reviewed operational details of Saturday’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the well-concealed strikes against nuclear development facilities in Iran that both men called an “incredible and overwhelming success.” - “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” President Donald Trump said Saturday. - Bunker Buster Bombs - lots of them - Was it a success? -- Monday: Iran coordinated the attacks on U.S. base in Qatar and gave officials advance warning to minimize casualties Interesting - Online job listing company CareerBuilder + Monster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday. Leading Indicators - A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters. - "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said. "The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026." Global Rates and Central Banks - Update World Rates Japan's Rice Problem - Rice prices in Japan more than doubled in May, spiking 101.7% year over year and marking their largest increase in over half a century. - The huge spike follows a 98.4% increase in April, and a rise of 92.1% year over year in March. - Japan’s rice prices have been in the spotlight in recent times, with the government releasing emergency stockpiles to moderate the price of the country’s staple food. - The surge in rice prices comes as Japan’s core inflation rate climbed to 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since January 2023. - The figure — which strips out costs for fresh food — was higher than the 3.6% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and is above April’s reading of 3.5%. Since Warren's Announcement - That retreat translates into roughly fifteen percentage points of underperformance versus the benchmark?S&P?500 index over the period since the announcement - Analysts attribute a sizable portion of the decline to the fading of the so?called “Buffett premium” that had been embedded in Berkshire’s valuation for decades. - Note: Operating earnings, which capture performance at wholly owned insurance, railroad, energy, and manufacturing subsidiaries, fell fourteen?percent year over year to?$9.64?billion - so there is that too... Drink Up! - The U.S. government is expected to eliminate from its dietary guidelines the long-standing recommendation that adults limit alcohol consumption to one or two drinks per day, according to three sources familiar with the matter - The updated Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which could be released as early as this month, are expected to include a brief statement encouraging Americans to drink in moderation or limit alcohol intake due to associated health risks. Fed Rate Decision - The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady and policymakers signaled that borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year. - But Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that, saying he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead from the Trump administration's tariffs. - "No one holds these ... rate paths with a great deal of conviction, and everyone would agree that they're all going to be data dependent," Powell said. - In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation ending the year at 3%, well above the current level. - Policymaker projections show two rate cuts still seen in 2025 - Year-end inflation projection higher at 3%, growth lower at 1.4% AI for Marketers - Reddit announced a “listening tool” called Reddit Insights, which shares real-time insights with marketers to help them identify trends and launch campaigns. - The other tool, called Conversation Summary Add-ons, allows brands to show “positive” user content under their ads. - Following the Meta (Facebook) move to have AI run marketing campaigns (cutting out the middle man) - “These are tools for a new era of community marketing, one where brands can tap into Reddit’s authenticity and connect meaningfully with high-intent communities around the world,” the company wrote. - Sounds like they are just preying on free-userbase Airlines - Cutting Routes - U.S. carriers have announced plans to trim capacity, particularly in the second half of the year, as bookings for domestic travel came in weaker than expected this year and fares fell. - Airfare in May was down 7.3% compared with last year, according to U.S. Department of Labor’s inflation report. - JetBlue and other airlines pulled their 2025 financial forecasts, citing economic uncertainty that executives said made it difficult to predict demand. - JetBlue will further cut off-peak flights and trim unprofitable routes. It will also pause plans to retrofit four of its older Airbus A320 jets with new interiors and park them, while the six remaining jets slated for the refurbishment are still ...
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