Podcast
DHUnplugged Podcast
Hosted by Horowitz and Dvorak · EN
DHUnplugged Podcast
27episodes
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DHUnplugged #757: Storm Alert
Jun 18, 202500:57:47Tap to summarizeA parade of pauses WAR! Middle East at it again Oracle earnings – wow! Tesla robotaxi spotted PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter ** Look At Album Art ** - So bad Warm-Up - More pausing floated - We have a CHYNA deal - kind of - Saying goodbye to Brian Wilson - Tesla - back in buy mode Markets - War! Middle East again (US seems to be helping ?) - Within 2% if ATH and then... - Oracle blows the roof off - UK economy shrinks - bigly ***A NEW Closest to the Pin! Middle East Again - Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early Friday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran’s nuclear program, sparking market fears of a wider conflict. - Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country’s most senior military official, was killed during the strikes, alongside the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian state media reported. - The Israeli airstrikes also targeted and killed two of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to Iranian news outlets. - Odd timing? - Markets initially took it better than expected - until Iran stuck back Valuations - As of the most recent update on June 5, 2025, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 21.70. This reflects a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and 25.20 one year ago, 10 -year average is about 19 PE Forward Chart Something we discussed on TDI - Presidential Cycles - The U.S. stock market tends to follow a four-year cycle aligned with presidential terms. Historically, the first year of a president’s second term (4 years apart in this case) often mirrors the first year of a new presidency in terms of market behavior—marked by uncertainty, policy re-calibration, and sometimes muted performance - While the first half of the first year can be choppy due to post-election adjustments and early policy moves, the second half—especially Q4—has historically shown stronger performance. This is often attributed to: Stabilizing policy direction after early-year volatility Investor optimism around fiscal planning and budget cycles Seasonal tailwinds like the holiday rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing Presidential Cycle UK Economy- This is why we need to dig further than the headline (more beneath the surface) - The U.K. economy shrank sharply in April as global trade tariffs and domestic tax rises kicked in, data showed Thursday. - The latest monthly growth figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% month on month in April, following growth of 0.2% in March. - It was also more than the 0.1% fall economists were expecting. - “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,” --- The real culprit: ----- Domestic tax rises have also been blamed for the steep decline in economic activity. British businesses have been confronted with an increase in national insurance contributions and rise in the minimum age from the start of April, while a temporary tax break on property purchases also came to an end in March. - ----The change in the Stamp Duty Land Tax (paid when buying property or land) in April meant there was a decrease of 63.5% in U.K. residential property transactions from the previous month, the ONS noted, with buyers rushing to complete purchases before the tax break ended. US Economy - U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs. - Consumer price index increases 0.1% in May - Foods prices rise 0.3%; but eggs a bit cheaper (eggs discussion) - CPI advances 2.4% year-on-year - Core CPI gains 0.1%; increases 2.8% year-on-year CPI Chart Oracle Earnings - Stock goes vertical - Shares rose about 13% Thursday after the software maker reported results that exceeded Wall Street estimates and signaled that cloud growth will accelerate. Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus: - Earnings per share: $1.70 adjusted vs. $1.64 expected - Revenue: $15.9 billion vs. $15.59 billion expected - Revenue increased 11% year over year during the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on May 31, according to a statement. - Net income rose to $3.43 billion, or $1.19 per share, from $3.14 billion, or $1.11 per share, in the same quarter last year. - Cloud infrastructure revenue should increase more than 70% in the 2026 fiscal year, up from growth of 52% in the quarter, CEO Safra Catz said on a conference call with analysts. - She called for more than $67 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, compared with the LSEG consensus of $65.18 billion. Tesla - Stock back in buy mode - After the "fight" Elon back in the CEO Chair - RoboTaxi carrot being used - Austin - 2 Robotaxi's been spottted - Will use their own ride hailing service (Uber, Lyft repercussions?) - ELON: "These are unmodified Tesla cars coming straight from the factory, meaning that every Tesla coming out of our factories is capable of unsupervised self-driving!" Amazon - Amazon is now restructuring its health business, stating that Amazon Health Services will be divided into six new units, with a goal of creating a simpler structure.| Amazon Clinic: (now Amazon One Medical Pay-per-visit): A virtual care service for common conditions, allowing patients to consult with doctors online. One Medical: A concierge primary care clinic, offering membership-based access to virtual and in-person care, including same and next-day appointmen...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #756: Mutual Assured Destruction
Jun 11, 202501:04:19Tap to summarizePlenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement Trial Balloons – Next Fed Chair thoughts Excitement over China talks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair - Everyone loves to hate China these days - Trump and Musk breakup - Your DNA may be for sale Markets - Retail shares have wide earnings outcomes - Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement - Excitement over China talks - Lutnik is showing the thumb-up - Who is buying? Powell Replacement - President Trump considering naming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026, according to Bloomberg - Just floating the idea (Trial balloon) at this point - YES! --- Proof - Wait 45 minutes: - White House official tells Reuters that Bloomberg reporting is "false" that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for Fed Chair China - Everyone loves to hate - China’s May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment — worst drop since 2022 - China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at its fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed Tuesday, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs. - The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since September last year. China Eco Who is Buying and Selling? - When President Donald Trump set off a global stock market slump in April with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, small investors across Asia rushed to the US stock market to buy the dip. -Retail investors in South Korea turned net sellers of US equities in May for the first time since before Trump’s election victory, while Japanese accounts became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds, according to official data. - The number of Singapore traders buying US stocks fell by a quarter in May from the previous period. Trump Musk Divorce (Mutual Assured Destruction) - Trump says Elon Musk went ‘CRAZY,’ suggests cutting government contracts for his companies - “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ”I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!” - Trump wished Elon "very well" in a presser on Monday night - “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in the social media post. -- Musk fired back with pictures of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and backed impeachment - “I asked him to leave,” Trump claimed. Musk called that “an obvious lie.” - - - - Does either one of these guys know the truth from a lie? -- Telsa stock dove harder than Trump's ratings post election on the spat BUT BUT - Wasn't the point of hiring Musk and the DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse? - - Lots of positive thoughts on the job he was doing - Now that he found waste in the Big Beautiful Bill - he is banished??? Palantir CEO - CEO Alex Karp said the artificial intelligence arms race between the U.S. and China will culminate in one country coming out on top. - “My general bias on AI is it is dangerous,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “There are positive and negative consequences, and either we win or China will win.” - Either way - Palantir wins - right? Select Retail - Last week we saw shares of Dollar General move higher - Lululemon shares hit the skids (we own this for clients) - --- LULU eat Wall Street expectations for fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday, but cut its full-year earnings guidance, citing a “dynamic macroenvironment.” Central Banks - India’s central bank delivered an outsized cut to its benchmark policy rate, bringing it to 5.5% from 6%, its lowest level since August 2022. - This also marks a third straight rate cut since February, and comes below the median estimates of 5.75% in a Reuters poll. - Expectations are for a GDP of 6.5% this year (was 9.2% last year) US Employment - Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. - Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April. - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. - U6 A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%. - Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Employment Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ More China - Just in... - China consumer prices slump again, deepening deflation worries as demand stays weak - China’s consumer prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in May, as Beijing’s stimulus measures appear insufficient to boost domestic consumption, with price wars in the auto sector adding to downward pressure. - The consumer price index fell 0.1% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Monday, compared with Reuters’ median estimate of a 0.2% decline. - CPI slipped into negative territory in February, falling 0.7% from a year ago, and has continued to post year-on-year declines of 0.1% in March, April, and now May. Goldilocks - Jensen Huang (NVDA) poured praise on the U.K. on Monday, promising to boost investment in the country’s artificial intelligence sector with his multitrillion-dollar semiconductor company. - “The U.K. is in a Goldilocks circumstance,” Huang said, speaking on a panel with Briti...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #755: Smoking Mirrors
Jun 4, 202501:04:19Tap to summarizeSet your clock – must be the weekend – New Tariffs imposed Someone wants the Fed Chair job TACO FAFO and more… More muddy AI cover art PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed - Someone wants the Fed Chair job - TACO FAFO and more... - More muddy AI cover art Markets - YUGE move for markets - Tariffs reinstated by Appeals court - for now - Hope for a spending bill - SPENDING BILLS - Retailers still worried - apparel stores not happy More tariffs - President Donald Trump told U.S. steelworkers on Friday that he will double tariffs on steel imports to 50%. - “We’re going to bring it from 25% to 50%, the tariffs on steel into the United States of America,” Trump said during remarks at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. The president said the steep tariffs would “further secure the steel industry.” - “At 25%, they can sort of get over that fence,” Trump said. “At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence.” - Shares of mining company Cleveland-Cliffs popped roughly 22% following the announcement, while Steel Dynamics jumped more than 13% and Nucor was up more than 12% Tariffs - Court Strikes them down - something we discussed a bit on the legality of tariffs in the way they were impose to begin with - Appeals court reinstates temporarily - Did you see Howard Lutnik? Like putty in Trump hands, saying how Trump will win, he always wins, he is such a winner, no one can negotiate like Trump - on and one in a press conference. Economic Downtick - The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025. - “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 ... on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said. - It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026 Big Month - NASDAQ up 9.6% for May - S&P 500 up 6% - Some calling it a Bear Market Bounce - Valuations getting toward top end again - Breath is poor again - BIG Names pulling most up - Tech was big driver in May - Best month for S&P 500 since November 2023 Someone Looking to Be Appointed - Kevin Warsh (Brown Nose Warsh) Says Fed Officials Shouldn’t Be ‘Pampered Princes,’ Defends Trump’s Criticism of the Bank - Leading name for the next Fed Chair - defended the president’s right to criticize the central bank, saying the Fed is too big and politically exposed. --- He is showing how political it can be with this kind of populist view Inflation Report - PCE moved to 2.1% on April (lower than expected) - Core inflation also was at 0.1% for the month though it was higher on an annual level at 2.5%. - Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase. - The savings rate surged to 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year. - Food prices fell 0.3% on the month while energy goods and services increased 0.5%. Shelter costs, which has been one of the most stubborn inflation components, increased 0.4%. -- Put all of that together - consumers are pulling back New and Old Acronyms making waves - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) - MAGA (Make America Go Away) - TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) ----It is used to capture the financial market's volatility and chaos that Trump's policymaking process has created Dell Earnings - Dell Technologies reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations, but the company beat on revenue and offered a stronger-than-expected forecast for the current quarter. - Dell said it expects $2.25 in adjusted earnings per share for the current quarter, with between $28.5 billion and $29.5 billion in revenue. That was significantly higher than LSEG expectations. - Seemingly strong results, but earning missed and revenue came in in-line. Investors not impressed after absorbing the info. HP Earnings - Headline: HP sinks 15% as company misses on earnings, guidance due to ‘added cost’ from tariffs - HP reported better-than-expected revenue on Wednesday, but the company missed on earnings and issued disappointing guidance. - The company said its outlook “reflects the added cost driven by the current U.S. tariffs,” as well as the associated mitigations. - HP CEO Enrique Lores said that the company has increased production in Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico and the U.S. - Earnings per share: 71 cents adjusted vs. 80 cents expected - - - “Through our actions, we expect to fully mitigate the increased trade-related costs by Q4,” Lores said--- BUT WAIT! - Revenue: $13.22 billion vs. $13.14 billion expected NVDA Earnings - Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, as the company’s booming data center business recorded year-over-year growth above 73%. - The stock rose about 6% in extended trading. - Overall revenue grew 69% during the quarter, and sales in the company’s data center division, which includes AI chips and related parts, grew 73%. - Earnings per share: 96 cents adjusted vs. 93 cents expected - Revenue: $44.06 billion vs. $43.31 billion expected - Nvidia said its gross margin of 61% for the quarter would have been 71.3% if not for the China-related charge. Gap Earnings - Headline: Gap shares plummet as retailer says tariffs could cost between $100 million and $150 million - Tariffs could cost the company between $250 million and $300 million, it said, but with mitigation efforts it expects the cost to be between $100 million and $150 million." - Gap said it’s already mitigated about half of those costs and without further action, the cost is expected to be between $100 million and $150 million, which will likely show up on the balance sheet in the back half of the year. The company said it’s going to build on its mitigation efforts by continuing to diversify its supply chain and reducing its exposure to China. - Shares down hard on this - question: What i they diversify to some other country that comes under fire? --- These brands have a target on their head - margins big concern (even if they manufacture all here in USA) META Moving Up - Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) believes its artificial intelligence tools could soon fully automate the process of creating advertising campaigns, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The news was viewed as positive for Meta stock but could be bad news for some major advertising firms. - Meta aims to offer a tool that "enable brands to fully create and target ads using artificial intelligence by the end of next year," - "Over the long-term, advertisers will basically just be able to tell us a business objective and a budget and we're going to go do the rest for them," ---- How is this different from a n ad agency - META will do it better? Capture the best advertisement for eyeballs and cheaper - is that the plan? --- Don't the advertisers want a wall between the ad agency and the media it is played on. ==== Lots of questions, but investors seem to like the idea of a one stop shop ELON - Ketamine haze - did you see the clips from when he was saying goodbye in Oval office - And how he was gazing up looking how cool the gold eagle was on the ceiling of the oval office - Eyes rolling, head swaying ==== Reports out Monday about sales of Tesla in Europe - very poor (so Elon back...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #754: Waffling Tactics
May 28, 202501:02:33Tap to summarizeWaffles for the Win Workarounds are the thing to avoid onerous tariffs Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Waffles for the Win - Workarounds are the thing - Learning about the First Sale Rule Markets - 42 Days? And counting - Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite - US Steel Deal - WOW! - Fresh steam for speculation - lots of movement Waffling - What are your favorite way to eat waffles? - Friday - 50% on Europe - Blah Blah - 25% on Apple and every smartphone maker that brings in product to USA - Sunday - Delay the Europe tariffs until July 9th - Not sure where we are on Results - Markets swoon on the initial Europe Tariff announcement - Markets (Overnight Futures) Popped higher on the Waffle - Apple will look to eat and see a cut to margins - ---- Surely Apple will promise to build plants in the US and slow role it to get some relief --- Apple recently announced a 250,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Houston that is expected to begin operations in 2026, indicating a timeline of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from announcement to production start (managed by Foxconn - manufacturing AI Driver Servers China - Not bad - China’s industrial profits rose for a second straight month in April, with their growth improving despite U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures, thanks to Beijing’s measures aimed at supporting businesses. - Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% last month compared to a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in March. - In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Facts though first: - Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus in China, often called “iPhone City,” spans over 1.4 million square meters (15 million square feet) and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. Approx 80% of Apple's annual iPhone production) -- To replicate this in the U.S., Apple would likely need multiple facilities totaling 10–15 million square feet or more, depending on automation levels and vertical integration. First Sale Rule - Love this!- - The first sale rule has been around since 1988 --- This is why markets/stocks/companies will always win - The “first sale rule” is a concept in U.S. customs law that allows importers to use the lowest cost of a good to calculate duties. - Under U.S. customs law, the first sale rule allows importers to base customs duties on the price of the initial transaction in a multi-tiered supply chain. Example scenario: A Chinese manufacturer sells a t-shirt to a Hong Kong vendor for $5. The Hong Kong vendor resells it to a U.S. retailer for $10. The U.S. retailer sells it to consumers for $40. - Using the first sale rule, the U.S. retailer can declare the $5 price for customs purposes, rather than the $10 resale price. - This approach reduces the duty owed by excluding the middleman’s markup. Asked AI to make easier to understand in an infographic AI Info-graphic Boeing Update - The U.S. Justice Department said Friday that it has reached a deal with Boeing - That will allow the aircraft maker to avoid prosecution over two crashes of its 737 Max planes that killed 346 people. - The non-prosecution agreement would allow Boeing, a major military contractor and top U.S. exporter, to avoid being labeled a felon. - The decision means Boeing won’t face trial as scheduled next month, as crash victims’ family members have urged for years. - Out of the woods? A buy yet? Wednesday - Big Day - NVDA earnings - Expectations are still for a good level of growth - but tempered bu reality - In focus will be Blackwell chips and plans for China's AI market New Clear Energy Update - Friday - Trump Administration ordered the nation's independent nuclear regulatory commission to cut down on regulations and fast-track new licenses for reactors and power plants, seeking to shrink a multi-year process down to 18 months. - The requirement was part of a batch of executive orders signed by Trump on Friday that aim to boost U.S. nuclear energy production amid a boom in demand from data centers and artificial intelligence. - Stocks in the sector took off (we have on on the weekly picks) - NuScale (SMR) is the only US Company with an SMR design approved by regulators. Supreme Court on the FED - The Supreme Court on Thursday strongly suggested that Federal Reserve board members would have special protection against being fired by a president in a ruling that, for now, allows President Donald Trump to fire two members of other federal agencies’ boards. - “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the majority ruling said. - In summary- A President is not prohibited from Firing a Fed official, it suggests that the Supreme court will be very resistant of approving. ---Markets will breath a sigh of relief on this US Steel - President Donald Trump on Friday cleared the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, after the Japanese steelmaker’s previous bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds. ($%% per share + investment) - “This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. - U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares surged more than 20% to close at $52.01 per share after Trump’s announcement. -- US Steel currently employees 21k - how we getting to 70k? - US Steel did $15 billion in revenue last year and we are going to $14 billion additional to the US economy? - Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.($4 Billion promised to build new steel mill) Jony! - OpenAI said last Wednesday that it’s buying Jony Ive’s AI devices startup io for about $6.4 billion in an all-equity deal that pushes the artificial intelligence company firmly into the world of hardware. - Ive is taking on “deep creative and design responsibilities across OpenAI and io,” the company said in a statement. - OpenAI said io is coming in-house, while Ive and his “creative collective” called LoveFrom will stay independent. - In a blog post Wednesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Ive said that io was f...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #753: Big and Beautiful
May 21, 202501:01:02Tap to summarizeThe dreaded downgrade. Biden’s health in the spotlight. The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - The dreaded downgrade - Biden's health in the spotlight - Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory - China continues to stimulate Markets - Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels - Stocks posting big gains for May - Bitcoin surges past $100k - Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider The Big Beautiful Bill - The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. - The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program. - The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early. - The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible. - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. - The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less. - The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force. - The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations. - The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government. - The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided. - The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000. USD DEBT Moody's - U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns. - That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1 - The first time since the initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change - Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process - --- maybe they are sending a message -"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. Market reaction - Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced - Bonds - long end moved. --- 30 yr treasuries up over 5% ---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7% - Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures Bessent reaction -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level. -"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies." - He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies - Is that right? China - Stimulating - China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth. - The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. US Steel still in play - Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter. - Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported. - There is a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then Trump administration has 15 days to make a decision on the deal - Odds of this happening? Eat it! - Walmart (and other retailers) have been discussing the potential need to increase pricing due to the tariffs - Over the weekend, President Trump said that they should EAT IT - It seems that the companies have made billions in profits over the years and should just absorb the increase (that was suppose to be paid by the other country - but who is counting anyway) -"Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected," Trump said in a social media post. - "Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, 'EAT THE TARIFFS,' and not charge valued customers ANYTHING." Home Depot Earnings - Missed on EPS, beat on Revenue - Quick to say that they will not be increasing prices due to tariffs, but reaffirm guidance - Wordplay here - they will surely increase prices, but will not pin it on the tariffs to stay in the good graces --- How else are they going to commit to guidance for the year? Buy Dental Stocks? - Florida became the second state to ban fluoride in its water supply on Thursday, as use of the mineral used to strengthen teeth increasingly comes under attack from Republicans. - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed the bill banning fluoride, saying at a signing event that "forcing it into the water supply is basically forced medication on people." - RF Kennedy JR. and others opposed to the use of fluoride in water say it is associated with numerous health issues, including certain cancers and lower cognitive ability among children. Shoes! - Dick's Sporting Goods has agreed to buy smaller rival Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, the companies said on Thursday. - Shares of Foot Locker surged 75% to $22.50 premarket after the announcement, while Dick's Sporting fell 9%. - The sporting goods retailer has offered $24 per share of Foot Locker, representing an 86% premium to the stock's last close. Foot Locker has lost about 40% of its value so far this year. Hmmmmmm - U.S. energy officials are reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices that play a critical role in renewable energy infrastructure after unexplained communication equipment was found inside some of them, two people familiar with the matter said. - Power inverters, which are predominantly produced in China, are used throughout the world to connect solar panels and wind turbines to electricity grids. They are also found in batteries, heat pumps and electric vehicle chargers. - Over the past nine months, undocumented communication devices, including cellular radios, have also been found in some batteries from multiple Chinese suppliers, one of them said. THIN IS IN - Samsung on Tuesday unveiled a thin version of its flagship smartphone in an unusually timed launch as it looks to maintain momentum in its mobile division against an uncertain consumer backdrop and U.S. tariff policy. - The Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge is just 5.8 millimeters thin and weighs 163 grams, making it one of the thinnest smartphones on the market. - Samsung said the device starts at $1,099 and goes on sale on May 30. Coinbase - Joining the big league...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #752: USA Hearts China
May 14, 202501:01:56Tap to summarize– More Deals – So many deals! We are so Amazing with the Deals! – Investors turn hot on stocks – like nothing happened! – Apple making moves – so smart PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals! - Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened! - Apple making moves - so smart - Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of these Markets - HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China - Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze - China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5? - Drug companies under pressure - Google update - Lots of headwinds Announcing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTP Reconciliation BILL - Draft - House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion - The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. - It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program. - The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early. - The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible. - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. - The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less. - The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force. - Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations. AI Diffusion Rule Repeal - Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors? - Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc... - Is this good news? Reality Bites - A quick weekend meeting and all good - 90 day pause - The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10% - The Art of the ???? ---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point. What Do We Do With this: - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior. - They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80% maybe - FAKE PROMISES, Fake News???? China Shipments - China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month. - Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier - Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected) - China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed. How Much? - In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports - The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April Income Received Inflation Update - Somehow, not moving (yet) - Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in March. Core CPI was up 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from March Income Received Microsoft - Cutting 3% of workforce ~6,000 employees getting the axe (BTW If you are one of these, contact me before you do anything - need to understand several key items for your finances and retirement plans) - “We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC. - either go to TDI site or email me info@ Finally! - A new U.S. rule that requires hotel and short-term lodging companies to disclose so-called "junk fees" starts this week. - Announced by the Federal Trade Commission in December, the rule takes direct aim at the widely loathed charges, which can appear as "resort," "destination" or "hospitality service" fees and purport to grant perks that travelers either don't want or already expect to receive. - The rule, which also applies to live event ticketing companies, was designed to curtail a practice that allowed businesses to charge more "without looking like you're raising prices," - Meanwhile - nothing really seems to be changing.... Look at LYV stock...looks like all is just fine... Drug Pricing Equalization - President Donald Trump on Monday revived a controversial policy that aims to slash drug costs by tying the prices of some medicine in the U.S. to the significantly lower ones abroad. - Trump signed an executive order including several different actions to renew that effort, known as the “most favored nation” policy. - But, part of the drug cost differential is sue to country subsidies - so how would that work? -- Other savings: - “We’re going to cut out the middlemen and facilitate the direct sale of drugs at the most favorite nation price, directly to the American citizen,” --- OH- will probably need Congressional approval for some of this.. - Within 30 days, the secretary (JFK Jr) will also have to set clear targets for price reductions across all markets in the U.S., according to the officials. That will open up a round of negotiations between HHS and the pharmaceutical industry, officials said, not providing exact details on the nature of those talks. - If “adequate progress” is not made toward those price targets, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will impose the most favored nation pricing on drugs through rulemaking. Apple Price Hike - So smart! - Apple is "mulling" the idea of increasing prices on some iPhones - How smart is that????? --- Get people nervous and off the fence and go and buy before prices go up! -- Love it! More Apple - Apple's plan to offer AI search options on Safari a blow to Google dominance - Google gets hit by 7% on this news - The iPhone maker w...
Transcribe →DHUnplugged #750: President Miyagi
Feb 12, 2025Tap to summarizeWax off Wax On – Waffling – Mr. Miyagi President? Government Cuts – Lots of Bye-Bye Notes. Economics and the latest employment report. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? - Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes - Economics are in.... People happy and not happy - Musk - let's talk about this .... - Praying for the turtles... Markets - Lots of Tumult - confusion but still a retail bid - Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some) - Employment Report - CPI Due this week - Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off - Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling) - Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum - China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates --- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days Economics - ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January -- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December ---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate - BLS Payrolls: 143k Added, (shy of estimates) ---- URate 4% ----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM - - - UMICH for Feb - 67.8 (DOWN from 70.1 - ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month Color on Confidence numbers - Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report --- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices Earnings: - The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years - 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average - The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth - Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point) Earnings - Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus - AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln - Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln - Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus ----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity More Earnings - Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments. - Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents. - Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG Even More Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment. - Stock kept of falling in the days after too... - Earnings per share: $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected - Revenue: $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion --- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT! Spotify - Stock moved up nicely last week after a really good earnings report - Shares climbed 10% Tuesday after the music streaming company recorded its first full year of profitability - Revenue: 4.24 billion euros vs. 4.19 billion euros expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: 1.76 euros vs.1.99 euros expected from LSEG - MAUs (monthly active users): 675 million vs. 664.3 million expected by StreetAccount - The Luxembourg-based company reported a 40% growth year-over-year for gross profit, rising 10% from the previous quarter. Operating income came in at 477 million euros, slightly below guidance. - $189 back in the start of 2024 - Now.... Over $600 Mo' Money Spend - Softbank now investing upwards of $40B into OpenAI - now worth $300B -- Remember, you keep adding money and your money from initial adds is worth more... Postal Service Suspended - USPS announced last week that it would stop accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong, until futher notice. ---- That smacked companies in China that do bug retail here in US (PDD, TEMU etc) - The U.S. Postal Service said Wednesday it will resume accepting inbound mail and packages from China and Hong Kong, just hours after it suspended service from those regions. - "The USPS and Customs and Border Protection are working closely together to implement an efficient collection mechanism for the new China tariffs to ensure the least disruption to package delivery," the agency wrote in a notice posted to its website. Sovereign Wealth Fund? - A sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is a state-owned investment fund that manages a country's financial assets - These funds are typically derived from surplus revenues from commodity exports (like oil and gas), foreign exchange reserves, or budget surpluses - The United States is considering establishing its own SWF. President Trump signed an executive order directing the Treasury and Commerce departments to develop a plan for creating such a fund. - The proposed U.S. SWF aims to promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the tax burden on American families and small businesses, and establish economic security for future generations - AND they are talking about somehow doing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.... WTF? Speaking of Bitcoin - BIG NEWS - Microstrategy is changing its name to .... Strategy US Steel Saga - Seems tht there is little hope of Nippon Steel buying US Steel - HOWEVER, Nippon Steel is going to invest "heavily" in US Steel now.... (WHY - hopes that one day this will get them control of the company and another administration will then allow the purchase for good behavior?) - MORE: U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters that he planned to announce new 25% tariffs on Monday, targeting imports of steel and aluminum. - - The proposed levies would be in addition to existing duties. No timeline for implementation was specified at this time. Bil Ackman - Not Quiet anymore - Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman revealed Friday that he has built a significant stake in Uber, saying the stock is still trading at a “massive” discount. - In a post on X, the hedge fund manager said his fund began buying Uber shares in early January and has amassed 30.3 million shares, worth $2.3 billion based on the stock’s current level around $75 per share. - “We believe that Uber is one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world,” Ackman said in t...
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