Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)

Hang on – Wild ride here

Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!

Shakeup in Dietville

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Warm-Up
- Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)
- Need a stock for CTP
- Hang on - Wild ride here
- Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- Shakeup in Dietville

Markets
- Massive moved during the week -
- Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding
- DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time
- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026

Superbowl and Superbowl ads
- Game review
- Any ad stick out?
- $10M per ad this year
- Half Time with Bad Bunny?
- Anthropic busting on OpenAi

Last Week!
- Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names.
- HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap

AI Ripping Through
- Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements
- First it was the software companies
- Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked
- Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space

Earnings Season Update
- Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results.
- Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line)
- Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better)
- Nothing great, like Goldilocks

Earnings Highlights
- Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks).
- AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages).
- Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions.

Recent Tech CAPEX announcements
- Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services.
- Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase).
- Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025).
------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025.

Market Reaction from all of this....
- Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood
- Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure.
- Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B)
- BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc.

Other Earnings of Interest
- Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines.
- The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million.
- Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
- Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs

While we are on the subject
- Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever!
- Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs

Hats off to WalMart
- Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever|
- Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience.

Google Bond Offering
- Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years
- Would you buy that?
- The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK.
- The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s

Fat Profits in Dietville
- Really interesting sequence of events happening...
- Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month
- Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill
- Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch
- Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises

THEN..
- Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday)
- FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.

AND....
- Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight lo...