Exploring Bogus oil prices

Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do…

Markets needed good news – Correlation high

Fed on hold?

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Warm-Up
- Bogus Oil Prices
- Look at what Gemini and JSD can do...
- Markets needed good news - Correlation high
- Fed on hold?
- JCD LIMERICK!

Markets
- Did we just correct?
- Inflation - Eco that matters
- Manipulation in Oil - Land?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCD
- AH Spoke with JCD Saturday....

Oil Prices - Bogus?
- The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100.
- Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect?
- But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation.
- Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75)

Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas?

Gas Prices

More Manipulation
- The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.
- US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?)
- Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that.
- Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008
----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline.
------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse.
---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed

Inflation and ECO
- PCE Prices stay elevated
- GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday.
- The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.
- The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Eco Table

Oil Models...Very Cool
- JSD - Explain
- https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804

Department of Defense, err War, is hiring
- The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit?
- This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???)
----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations.
- Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil????
--- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense)

Did you know?
- 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar
- Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally
- South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically
- Semiconductor manufacturing
- - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes).
- - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers.
-- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning.
- - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability.
- - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs.

INDIA! Running out of Gas
- Does it matter?
- India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil
- Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation
- BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India?
-- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India

Back to this...
- AI not causing job losses
- WHAT ABOUT META?
- Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending.

Drone Warfare
- New Warfare fought like games
- Ender's Game Movie
- Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet)
Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet)
Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds)
Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range)
--- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia

Gaming Industry
- DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now
- Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales
- Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games
- Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU)
- Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles
- Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase
- Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M)
- AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside
- Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

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Target Earnings
- Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump.
- Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected
- Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected
- Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings pe...