PCE and inflation trends – single day concern

Earnings Season – Goldman, JPM

Eco Reports of historic proportion

Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

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Warm-Up
- Walking back - Waffling and Extensions
--- Blockade - not really
- Market Immunity
- Jesus.ai
- Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?)

Markets
- PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised
- Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM
- Historic Eco Report
- Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

CONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ
- Over $250M in tour winnings

Market Update
- Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed
- - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification
- Markets somewhat immune? Looking past?
- FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares!
----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about...

Historic!
- As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor.
- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history.

Consumer Sentiment

Fed Looking
- The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry.
- The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system.
- The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

ECO - PPI
- PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%)
Core PPI (excluding food and energy):
- Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%)
--- Market talk:
-- - Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporary

Meanwhile...
- Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
- The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg.
- That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice.

Blockade
- President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.
-The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump.
--- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?)
- The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command.

Goldman Earnings
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies.
- Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.
--- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card)
---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news event

Stocks: Earnings
- Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news.
--- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last.
--------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1.

Blackrock Call
- Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop.
- With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter.
- But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFs

Stocks: Monday/Tuesday
-----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%.
-----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%.
--Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levels

Stocks: Mattress Consolidation:
- Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026.
----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, Dreams

Stocks - Upgrades
- Toll Brothers, Pultegroup
— Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform.
- - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers.

Pope Leo
- WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump
-- Is the Pope involved in criminal / police issues ?

Jesus Update
- Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted)
- At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level.
-----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jes...