Podcast Summary

Podcast: Do This, NOT That: Marketing Tips with Jay Schwedelson
Episode: Your Attribution Data Is Lying to You 🤥 | Bathroom Break #95 (Collab: The Marketing Millennials + Do This, Not That)
Date: February 16, 2026

Episode Overview

In this special “Bathroom Break” collab episode, Jay Schwedelson and Daniel Murray deliver rapid-fire insights on a pressing issue in marketing: attribution data, and why it’s often misleading. With humor and a candid tone, they expose common attribution mistakes, share practical alternatives for measuring campaign performance, and reflect on how marketers can better understand what’s actually moving the needle. The conversation moves from data fallacies and tactical fixes to winter sports banter, offering both actionable tips and entertainment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Problem with Marketing Attribution

• Attribution Obsession:
  Marketers are fixated on attribution, but most attribution systems give a false sense of accuracy.
  Jay (A) [02:39]:
  “Attribution measurement is completely, complete garbage.”

• Misuse as a "GPS":
  Attribution should be thought of as a compass (directional), not a GPS (turn-by-turn instructions).
  Daniel (B) [02:59]:
  “Don’t use it as like a GPS...Directionally, it could tell you these channels might be doing better than this channel. But...as the roadmap, it’s the wrong thing to do.”

• The Fault of Last-Touch Attribution:

  • Over-reliance on last-touch attribution heavily favors channels like Google Search because they're at the end of the journey, while discounting earlier influences.
  • This results in misallocation of budget and credit.
    Daniel (B) [03:51]:
    “Most companies...automatically put more money in Google search because that’s usually like the last touch attribution...there had to be an action before they came to your website.”

  Jay (A) [04:31]:
  “There’s going to be more last touch attribution assigned to these AI tools, even though it’s the same stupidity as assigning it to Google Search.”

Practical Fixes & Alternative Ways to Measure Impact

• Holdout Groups:

  • Randomly select a portion of your audience (5-10%) and exclude them from receiving campaign communications or ads.
  • After the campaign, compare results between the marketed group and the holdout.
  • The “delta” reveals the true lift driven by marketing activity. Jay (A) [04:31]:
    “You take 10% of your database and you hold it out...Then what you do is after the campaign concludes...the delta between your holdout group and the people you marketed to is your real performance.”
  • Caveat: Not perfect, but a major improvement over standard attribution.

• Geo-Based Attribution Testing:

  • Focus spend (OOH, radio, CTV) in a test region, then compare results to other markets.
  • Measure for incremental lift. Daniel (B) [06:23]:
    “Pick a geo...just concentrate–say out of home there or radio there...see if there was a lift in that area with doing that one tactic...You could tell there should be an incremental...lift.”
  • Downside: Pricier than holdouts, but highly insightful.

• Red Flags with Channel Credit:
  If one channel looks like an outlier (driving all credit), that’s a sign your measurement model is flawed. Jay (A) [07:19]:
  “If internally you’re assigning a lot of value to one channel and you’re doing multi-channel marketing...that should be your red flag.”

• Multi-Touch Attribution & Self-Reported Attribution:

  • Use multiple models (multi-touch, media mix, incrementality) to get a triangulated understanding.
  • Easy win: ask on lead/contact forms, “Where did you hear about us?”
    Daniel (B) [07:50]:
    “The easiest thing to do is just add ‘where did you hear about us’ on your form...And then we could now invest more into those channels because they’re actually telling us.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Misplaced Attribution Confidence:
  Jay (A) [02:39]:
  “Attribution measurement is completely, complete garbage.”

• How to Think About Attribution:
  Daniel (B) [02:59]:
  “Attribution should be seen as like a compass...don’t use it as a GPS.”

• Budget Allocation Warning:
  Daniel (B) [03:51]:
  “They just say, oh, here, executive team, look, we can put more money in Google because Google is doing so good for us.”

• On Holdout Best Practices:
  Jay (A) [04:31]:
  “The delta between your holdout group and the people you marketed to is your real performance.”

• Multi-Touch Modeling Real Talk:
  Daniel (B) [07:50]:
  “Facebook’s a walled garden, Google’s a walled garden. They’re going to make it look better because that’s how you spend more on those platforms.”

Lighthearted Moments

• Altitude Sickness Banter ([00:39]–[02:34]):
  Jay and Daniel open with jokes about Jay’s Colorado trip, altitude sickness, and drinking water with Advil. Their comedic rapport sets a friendly, informal tone.

• Winter Olympics and Curling Digression ([08:59]–[10:38]):
  The conversation detours into the Winter Olympics, with musings about curling’s status and a playful exchange:
  Jay (A) [10:16]:
  “I don’t believe those are the best curlers in the world...they’re just the people that tried curling.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 02:39 | Why most attribution data is misleading | | 02:59 | Compass vs. GPS analogy for attribution | | 03:51 | The pitfalls of last-touch attribution | | 04:31 | How to set up and learn from holdout groups | | 06:23 | Geo-based attribution testing | | 07:19 | Red flags in assigning channel value | | 07:50 | Multi-touch models and self-reported attribution | | 08:59 | Olympics/curling banter and light close |

Actionable Takeaways

• Don’t trust attribution as gospel—use it for directional guidance, not literal action.
• Implement holdout groups or geo-based testing to understand campaign impact.
• Be wary of any one channel receiving all the credit, especially in multi-channel campaigns.
• Use multiple attribution models AND simple, self-reported data to triangulate the truth.

Tone:
Conversational, humorous, and candid, blending practical marketing wisdom with lighthearted personal anecdotes.

Best for:
Marketers, growth leads, and anyone struggling with measuring the true impact of their digital campaigns.