Dwarkesh Podcast: How Hitler Almost Starved Britain – w/ Sarah Paine

Date: September 5, 2025
Host: Dwarkesh Patel
Guest: Professor Sarah Paine (Naval War College, maritime warfare historian)
Theme: A masterclass on Britain's strategic posture in WWII, the battle for maritime supremacy, how close Germany came to starving Britain into submission—and what this history implies for modern powers like Russia and China.

Overview

Sarah Paine delivers a sweeping analysis of Britain's existential struggle as a maritime power against continental powers in WWII, especially the near-starvation blockade engineered by Hitler's U-boats. Through the lens of geography, grand strategy, and military theory, she examines Britain's responses, the critical role of allies, and draws rich parallels to modern great-power rivalries. The discussion includes granular military history, statistics, and strategic theory, plus a lively and challenging Q&A with Dwarkesh.

Key Topics & Timestamps

1. Geographic Dilemmas of Maritime vs. Continental Powers (00:00–11:00)

• Britain’s Strategic Situation

  • Britain as an island power—"the country with the 360, you-can't-get-me moat" (00:30).
  • Britain’s proximity to the continent, threats from France, then Germany after 1871.
  • Key access points: to Russia (via the Arctic or Black Sea), Suez Canal, reliance on cooperation from Spain, France, Italy, Turkey—all uncertain in WWII.

• Germany and France’s Naval Problems

  • France has open-ocean access; Germany restricted by “narrow seas” and must pass Britain—the dominant naval power.

• Resource Insecurities

  • Hitler’s war plans required resources from the Rhineland, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and oil-rich Romania.

Notable Quote
"So that is my game plan today… I'm going to pick up the story in 1939 when things are really bad for Britain." – Sarah Paine [00:45]

2. Lessons from WWI: Avoiding the Same Mistakes (11:01–17:00)

• Culminating Point of Attack (Clausewitz)

  • Avoid overextending offensives—a lesson learned after the mass casualties of trench war in WWI.
  • WWII saw more peripheral strategy, rapid evacuation at Dunkirk (“no more going beyond the culminating point of attack”).

• Diplomacy & Coordination Overhaul

  • WWI: minimal allied conferences, poor coordination, late support for Russia.
  • WWII: early and extensive inter-allied planning—ABC Staff talks, Atlantic Charter, joint and combined commands (military + civil authorities).

Notable Quote
"And they are the greatest generation, not their children, who claimed the title. Lesson number one is don't go beyond the culminating point of attack." – Sarah Paine [12:30]

3. Economic Warfare: The Battle of the Atlantic and Blockade (17:01–40:00)

• Establishing the Blockade

  • Britain aims to strangle Germany via maritime blockade; Germany responds with U-boat commerce raiding.
  • Occupation of French coastline crucial for Germany—creation of Atlantic U-boat bases (e.g., Lorient, St. Nazaire).

• Convoys, Espionage & Technology

  • Early British reluctance to escort merchant shipping, echoing mistakes of WWI; rectified over time with convoy systems.
  • Breakthroughs in codebreaking: British capture of Enigma machines aided evasive convoy routing.
  • Innovation: US radar, “hedgehog” depth charges, small destroyer escorts, and escort carriers shift the balance.

• Critical “Happy Times” for German U-boats

  • Periods when German submarines nearly sank enough ships to starve Britain—“Hitler's happy time.”
  • American initial resistance to convoys led to devastating east coast sinkings after US entry.

• Turning the Tide

  • Industrial scale: US shipbuilding outpaces U-boat sinkings by 1943.
  • Convoy protection, intelligence, technological leaps, and sheer production overwhelm Germany.

Notable Quotes

• “The Germans almost sank a terminal quantity of British trade. It's close, because Britain is dependent not only on oil imports… but about half of its food supply. So the Germans tried and came close.” [26:30]
• “There are a lot of things going on here… Remove any one of them and the outcome may have been different.” [27:45]

4. Peripheral Campaigns & the Importance of Alliances (40:01–56:30)

• Peripheral Theaters

  • With sea control, Allies pursue peripheral theaters (North Sea, Mediterranean, North Africa, air campaign over Germany).
  • North Sea: Germany’s conquest of Norway closed a key route.
  • Mediterranean: Malta, Gibraltar, Suez, and Crete as vital choke points; US support turns the tide in Africa.

• Resources & Logistics

  • Germany’s control of Europe was a “petroleum deficit zone”—difficult to sustain occupation and military efforts.
  • Lend-Lease: US and British aid to USSR crucial—high-octane fuel, vehicles, Spam(!), and rolling stock.

• Allied Coordination vs. Axis Constraints

  • Axis alliances added occupied GDPs but at enormous overhead; Allies shared real capabilities.
  • The Soviet Union bore the brunt of fighting; Western Allies relieved pressure through peripheral ops.
  • Interconnected air, sea, and land war: Bombing German cities forced Hitler to redirect defenses.

Notable Quote
"Alliances are additive, right? …The Allies are all game to help each other… it's a de facto division of labor." – Sarah Paine [44:39]

5. Strategic Synthesis: How Cumulative Effects Secured Victory (56:31–60:26)

• “Cumulative Effects” Theory

  • The sequence: Start where possible, open promising new operations, drain enemy resources, relieve pressure on main front.
  • “Only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that's fighting without them.” – Churchill, as cited by Paine.

• Joint and Combined Operations

  • Key to victory: Blockade, counter-commerce raiding, peripheral operations, massive production, joining with capable allies.

Notable Quote
"Churchill, the great wit, talked about the hassles of dealing with allies… But his idea is there's only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that's fighting without them, because it'll be toast." [57:45]

6. Modern Analogies: Russia & China – Continental Dilemmas (48:03–60:26)

• Geography Still Rules

  • Russia and China as classic continental powers—hemmed in by “kill zones” of narrow seas.
  • Russian navy is boxed in; key vessels out of action; NATO expansion makes Baltic, Black Sea scenarios grim for Russia.
  • China hemmed in by neighbors, with maritime ambitions limited by hostile coasts and geography.

• Modern “Blockades” = Sanctions

  • Power of global trade and the prospect of economic isolation as a modern parallel.
  • China’s trading power is immense, but reliance on global markets is also an Achilles' heel.

Notable Quotes

• “So nature naturally contains both Russia and China. It's just the way it is.” [48:30]
• “If you're thinking of whatever conflict you're imagining… tell me what this war is, who's going for what and what's win gonna look like and then we can talk about what feasible is.” [86:10]

Q&A Highlights & Debates (60:27–94:39)

Strategic Agency vs. Material Output

• Host (Dwarkesh): Was victory more about Allied planning or German/Axis mistakes?
• Paine: Both matter; geography and lost assets after Norway invasion limited Germany’s options; industrial output was critical, but material supremacy alone wasn't enough—removing coordination, cryptography, or technology could have changed outcomes.

“You’re telling me there’s this factor—economic size—and it’s decisive… but then they are just ignoring all these other things… that battle of the Atlantic turns out differently.” [68:45]

What Is “Win”? Definitions of Victory Matter

• Paine notes that “winning” can involve limited, attainable objectives (Bismarck) or unlimited, delusional aims (Hitler).

"If Hitler had just done the Anschluss… and quit, he’d be called Bismarck II. A genius. But that’s not who he is.” [64:20]

Oil and Resources as Strategic Drivers

• Hitler’s obsession with securing resources explained expansion and arguably compelled him into further, ultimately self-defeating campaigns.

Dictatorship, Doubling Down, and “No Reassessment”

• Paine: “Dictators don’t [surrender], they just double down… This is the beauty of elections… Doubling down on bad decisions is a mistake. But we human beings do it. If you have a dictator, you’re guaranteed.” [80:22]

Are Russia and China in a WWII-Axis-Like Bind?

• Paine: “Both of them are much more vulnerable to blockade. Period, right?” [85:14]
• Discussion of modern alliances, China's trading role, and long-term effects of sanctions and coalition pressure.

Broader Reflections

• Maritime vs. Continental Strategy

  • Geography sets boundaries for possible strategies; building fleets makes sense only where geography allows their deployment.

• Positive-Sum vs. Zero-Sum Worldviews

  • Paine urges the world to pursue compounding economic growth through free movement and trade, rather than commerce killers and war.

"Ever since the Industrial Revolution introduced compounded economic growth, this continental solution is a mistake. It is much better. Forget about invading territory, allow the free traffic of people, trade, goods, ideas, and then we'll all grow together." [90:30]

Memorable Moments

• Spam as War Winner: The humble canned pork product, Spam, cited as "Hornmelf Inner foods contribution to the war," which helped prevent Russian famine (52:30).
• The Human Element: "Most human beings don't like to change their mind. I think it's a terrible mistake." [80:22]
• Vietnam and Captain von Trapp: The Sound of Music’s Captain as a Mediterranean submarine ace, forcing Britain to convoy the whole sea (91:23).

Summary Table of Key Concepts

| Strategic Topic | Britain/WWII | Modern Analogy (Russia/China) | |-----------------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------------| | Sea control | Critical for survival | Hard for Russia/China | | Alliances | Essential multiplier | Russia/China have few/many strained| | Geography (moat, access) | Moat = strength | Hemmed in by narrow seas | | Blockade/economic strangling| Nearly succeeded vs. Britain| Modern sanctions | | Industrial production | Decisive, but not alone | China’s massive output, but vulnerable| | Peripheral theaters | Avoided main fronts (initially)| Limited for Russia/China |

Final Takeaways

• WWII showcased the existential stakes and razor-thin margins for maritime powers. Britain survived due to the cumulative effects of geography, technology, coordination, and—critically—alliances.
• The history provides a template for analyzing modern strategy, stressing the enduring importance of discipline in grand strategy, the constraints of geography, and the perils of autocratic hubris.
• Economic interdependence and positive-sum alliances offer the surest tools for prosperity and peace in a risky world.

Essential Quotes

"Only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that's fighting without them, because it'll be toast." – Sarah Paine [57:45]
"Both of them [Russia and China] are much more vulnerable to blockade. Period, right?" [85:14]

For deeper reading and resources:
Visit www.dwarkesh.com

(Prepared without advertisement or outro content. Please consult timestamps for precise reference.)