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Banks' forecasts of an economic contraction in the second quarter are probably right, independent economist Cameron Bagrie says.

ASB’s revised outlook shows the bank expects annual GDP growth of 1.3% this year, down from its previous forecast of 2.9%, thanks to higher fuel prices hitting consumer spending.

It expects the economy to contract by 0.3% in the second quarter and expand by 0.3% in the third, with New Zealand’s economic recovery now “unlikely” before 2027.

Bagrie told Ryan Bridge those forecasts were a “central scenario” but there was a lot of variance, as nobody had a firm idea of how long the war would last.

The economy would likely move backwards in the next quarter, and GDP per capita was still down 3.4% from its peak three years ago.

While that didn’t technically qualify as a recession —which requires going backwards for two quarters in a row— “it’s still going to feel like it’s pretty tough out there”.

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