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Yesterday’s “disappointing” GDP data gives the Reserve Bank more scope to delay a hike to the Official Cash Rate, ANZ senior economist Matthew Gault says.

The RBNZ’s next monetary policy review announcement is on April 8. It had been picking 0.5% GDP growth for the December quarter, but GDP rose just 0.2%.

Gault told Ryan Bridge ANZ had expected the Bank to be reasonably cautious about the oil price shock compared to other central banks.

“Definitely inflation will rise with oil prices going up as much as they have. But the real concern for the Reserve Bank will be whether that increase in oil prices spills over into generalized inflation, things like wages and other prices.

“And with the economy in a relatively weak state, we think they'll be less worried about that than places like Australia where the economy is firing more strongly.”

Gault said the Government was being “sensible” not to push inflation higher with fiscal stimulus in response to oil prices.

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