The Budget is always a fizzer in the sense that most of it is announced days in advance.

There are a few sweeteners on the day, but this time, unless there's a rabbit about to be yanked from a hat, even they might be more Werther's Original than chocolate cake.

The best time to read about the Budget is always the following Monday – that's when you get the real juice.

All the cuts that pundits missed on the day become clear once the dust has settled.

This Budget is one of many that's seen Nicola Willis spending more than Grant Robertson did.

The surplus has been pushed out more times than you can shake a stick at. It's meant to be 2030. Nicola has no choice but to honour that.

What she should do is come out today and tell us we're going to get there early, otherwise what has all 'cutting', relative term by the way, been for?

Capital spending will be the aim of the game.

Not all spending is bad, of course, handouts and made-up ministries? Not great. Roads and hospitals? Good.

We're up over 40% of debt to GDP, and many people argue we can and should spend more.

And yes, we can, and yes, we probably should.

Not on day-to-day stuff – that's dumb.

We are not America. We are not Europe. We don't have huge domestic demand and are quite prone to earthquakes and weather events.

Any spending we do must be careful and calculated because let's be honest, our economy is more fragile to shocks, both at home and abroad.

Which is why the surplus keeps getting pushed out. Which is why we need to unshackle ourselves from a structural deficit, and the sooner we can do that, the better off we'll be.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.