For the second year in a row, Donald Trump has rained on the parade of our economic recovery.

The economists this week have been beavering away, updating the economic forecasts. We'll kiss goodbye to up to a third of our growth for the year. What was 3% is now 2%.

Groundhog day. This is exactly what happened last year with tariffs.

The recovery begins in earnest, there are signs of life, then Trump posts on Truth Social and the world comes crashing down.

If Kamala Harris was in the White House our economy would probably be up on the foils by now. Recession would be a distant memory. Life probably be better for your average Kiwi.

A Harris presidency could arguably have been much worse for America's fortunes, but who cares, we live here.

The question is whether the midterm elections are going to actually change anything for Trump, and by extension, us.

And the short answer is basically no.

Even if the Republicans lose the midterms, Trump still has the power to start wars and do tariffs. The courts have slapped some down, but he’s found other ways of doing things

Trump is the Commander-in-Chief and doesn’t need Congress to blow stuff up. He didn’t with Iran. No sign-off either for his blockade of Venezuela. Same goes for deposing of Maduro and threatening Greenland.

Under the US Constitution, the military reports to the president.

As for the tariffs, you just find some national security reasons to impose them —there's an unfair trade imbalance, a fentanyl crisis— and you're in business.

So for those hoping that November‘s midterm elections would put Trump back in a box and keep a lid on his tactics, you're out of luck.

Sure, a hostile Congress would have more power. They can withhold funding for wars and create legal problems for tariffs.

But it's no silver bullet to the executive powers which Trump is using and we're paying for.

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