It's too early to tell whether National should switch leaders.

We've had one poll last night with the left-bloc winning.

If that case were to eventuate, it probably wouldn't eventuate in the way it's being reported.

New Zealand First would step in to rescue Labour from Te Pati Māori and soften the power of the Greens.

If there wasn't enough support on the right to form a government, you can't tell me Winston wouldn't do a deal with his devil to keep the left honest.

Back to Luxon and the leadership.

He's had a bad poll. But there have been plenty of late with the right keeping the Treasury benches.

That's why most of his cabinet keeps his support. That and the fact nobody else at the round table seems confident enough they'd actually do a better job and improve those numbers.

Until it's clear not just in one poll, but a trend of polls, that these guys wouldn't be part of a cabinet because they wouldn't have the numbers to form one in the first place, then the leadership won't change.

There's still plenty of time before election day, and a lot will change by then too.

Jacinda didn't need long to turn transform Little's vote into enough support to seize power.

This idea that all must be decided this Tuesday or next, before Luxon's trip to Singapore, ahead of the budget that follows it, is a red herring.

Caucus would be making a decision without the enough time to gather the facts, and without confidence in a decent replacement.

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