It's Friday huddle, pep talk time.

New Zealand, we're going to need our number-8 wire, positive, can-do, problem solver attitude now more than ever.

Air New Zealand's in the doldrums, Trump's at war in the Middle East, oil's chocked up, Xi's talking about Taiwan again.

And for some perspective, if Taiwan kicks off, which some in the intelligence community reckon could happen as early as next year, then things will change pretty quickly.

The world could be held to ransom over semi-conductors, not oil. Global GDP could drop 5% - that's Covid-era/GFC level stuff. For us, some sort of quarantine or blockade would be very bad.

China's our number one trading partner - 20-25% of our exports, and we're an export nation.

If they do what everyone expects they will do then there'd be Western sanctions. What happens to our goods when there's sanctions?

The tap gets turned off. Or we turn a blind eye, and that's not likely.

When I lived in Beijing, Taiwan was a constant topic of conversation, along with Hong Kong, because they're very important to the Chinese. Not just for historical reasons, but strategic.

Their entire eastern seaboard is key to their economic success. It's within spitting distance of Beijing (political centre), Shanghai (commercial centre), and manufacturing and heavy industry port cities.

Across the Pacific? America.

So, any buffer's a good buffer.

This is not to say we should freak out, but that we should be prepared and stay positive.

Greg Foran had Covid at Air New Zealand. Nikhil Ravishankar's got a jet fuel crisis. The next guy will have something else.

The hits won't stop coming. The world is smaller and dependent on each other via global trade. That means a cough in Taiwan means a cold in Southland, New Zealand.

The best we can do is diversify, back ourselves, and stay positive.

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