Podcast Summary: "A world-changing war: four years in Ukraine"

The Economist Podcasts – The Intelligence
Host: Jason Palmer
Episode Date: February 24, 2026

Overview

On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Economist gathers its international team—deputy editor Edward Carr, defense editor Shashank Joshi, and Ukraine correspondent Oliver Carroll—to reflect on how the war has reshaped Ukraine, Europe, and the broader global order. The discussion covers personal experiences from the ground, evolving military strategies, shifting political dynamics within Ukraine, global alliances, and the prospects (and risks) for peace.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Witnessing Four Years of War in Ukraine

(03:18 – 04:22)

• Oliver Carroll recounts his arrival in Kyiv before the invasion, the initial chaos and disbelief, and witnessing atrocities such as in Bucha.
  • Quote (03:31, Oliver Carroll):
    "It was a really surreal and really quite sad first month seeing university lecturers preparing Molotov cocktails. I was one of the first journalists in to Bucha to see all the atrocities there... And now we're down to this really uneasy quagmire, seeing Ukraine hold the front lines heroically, but get progressively weaker in the rear."
• The conflict, for Carroll, has been both "heavy" and a "massive privilege" to document.

2. Evolving Perceptions and Unexpected Realities

(04:39 – 06:32)

• Edward Carr and Shashank Joshi reflect on the shock, underestimation of Ukrainian resilience, and the immense geopolitical ripple effects:
  • Quote (05:24, Shashank Joshi):
    "I was among those who underestimated the Ukrainians and didn't think they would be enduring to this degree. I thought Russian mass would eventually overpower them, and I was very, very wrong on that."
• Joshi highlights "extraordinary subplots" now overshadowed by the war’s magnitude: Prigozhin’s mutiny, North Korean troops fighting in Europe, and the nuclear standoff of late 2022.

3. The War’s Impact on Ukrainian Society and Identity

(07:07 – 08:17)

• Carroll describes profound changes: massive population loss, a decisive turn against Russia, and fragmentation of society by circumstances (those who fled, stayed, or fought).
  • Quote (07:17, Oliver Carroll):
    "Ukraine itself is physically smaller. The population is about a quarter smaller than it was at the start of the war... The pure unity of that first year of war is definitely fractured, and societies now split into different camps."

4. Politics and Corruption in Wartime Ukraine

(08:21 – 09:24)

• Edward Carr discusses the initial unity and self-organization in Ukraine, later giving way to the return of "normal politics," including fatigue and corruption scandals.
  • Quote (08:21, Edward Carr):
    "Right at the beginning of the war, one of the things that happened was that this country that had been very chaotically and corruptly governed cohered. It was an astonishing thing."

5. Transformation of Warfare & Defense Lessons

(09:35 – 11:24)

• Shashank Joshi describes the Ukraine war as validation of the "transparent battlefield": drones, satellites, and cheap precision strikes have shifted advantage from those trying to hide to those 'finding' targets.
  • Quote (09:35, Shashank Joshi):
    "What we've seen in Ukraine is the extreme validation of that concept. We have moved much more in the direction of what you would call a transparent battlefield, one in which everything is seen from above... It is very, very dangerous to be moving or exposed on the ground."
• Old and new technologies merge, and commercial players (e.g., Starlink) unexpectedly shape warfare.

6. The War of Attrition: Psychological and Strategic Stakes

(11:24 – 12:40)

• Carr underscores that Ukraine is fighting for survival, while Russia wages a war of choice, which alters standard calculations about military mass and morale.
• Carroll warns of "Ukraine as Europe's fortress" narrative and the risk of exhaustion, pointing out Ukrainian resilience is not limitless:
  • Quote (11:57, Oliver Carroll):
    "Ukrainian resilience isn't inexhaustible. I was speaking to a soldier just the other day... he reckoned a third of his address book was no longer phoneable and he couldn't bring himself to delete the names."

7. Military Stalemate and Russian Failures

(12:40 – 14:15)

• Carr notes Russia’s inability to achieve large advances despite enormous resources; advances on some fronts slower than during WWI.
  • Quote (12:40, Edward Carr):
    "A recent report from CSS said only up to 70 meters a day in the Donetsk front, which is slower than the Battle of the Somme."

8. Rearmament and the New Global Defense Order

(14:15 – 15:43)

• Shashank Joshi details real rearmament in Europe (defense spending up 50%, ammunition production multiplied sixfold), plus the emergence of a Russia-China-North Korea-Iran defense industrial axis sustaining the Russian war effort.
  • Quote (14:27, Shashank Joshi):
    "Even since the beginning of the full scale invasion, European defense spending has gone up by 50%. That's an absolutely enormous sum of money."

9. The “Day After”: Risks and Uncertainty Ahead

(15:43 – 17:22)

• Edward Carr voices concern that Ukraine could feel betrayed if the EU doesn’t follow through on promises or if postwar aid falls short, fueling dangerous narratives.
  • Quote (15:56, Edward Carr):
    "The scene is set for some kind of betrayal narrative in Ukraine. Ukraine having fought the war partly for Europe's behalf and then Europe not really coming to help afterwards."
• Shashank Joshi points to Ukraine’s growing missile capabilities, arguing its future deterrence may rest on striking deep into Russia.

10. Is Peace Possible? Persistent Obstacles

(17:22 – 20:58)

• Carr doubts the likelihood of genuine peace due to political and battlefield realities: territorial demands from Russia, and incompatible security guarantees.
  • Quote (17:31, Edward Carr):
    "It's hard to imagine a set of security guarantees that satisfies both parties."
• Carroll and Joshi highlight the US’s pivotal role—whether to continue support or push for a quick, possibly flawed deal.
  • Quote (19:51, Shashank Joshi):
    "The US Is approaching this as if it is some disinterested, detached observer of the conflict, when in fact it's the pivotal player here still."

Memorable Quotes

• Oliver Carroll (03:31):
  "I arrived in Kyiv a little over a week before the invasion... the missiles started falling. It was a really surreal and really quite sad first month seeing university lecturers preparing Molotov cocktails."
• Shashank Joshi (05:24):
  "I was among those who underestimated the Ukrainians and didn't think they would be enduring to this degree."
• Edward Carr (08:21):
  "It was a sort of self organizing principle that Ukrainians found within themselves the ability to resist a much larger country and surprised the world when it did it."
• Shashank Joshi (09:35):
  "We have moved much more in the direction of what you would call a transparent battlefield."
• Oliver Carroll (11:57):
  "Ukrainian resilience isn't inexhaustible... he reckoned a third of his address book was no longer phoneable and he couldn't bring himself to delete the names."
• Edward Carr (12:40):
  "Only up to 70 meters a day in the Donetsk front, which is slower than the Battle of the Somme."
• Shashank Joshi (14:27):
  "European defense spending has gone up by 50%... And on the other side... a Russian, North Korean, Iranian, Chinese defense industrial complex."
• Edward Carr (15:56):
  "The scene is set for some kind of betrayal narrative in Ukraine."
• Shashank Joshi (19:51):
  "The US Is approaching this as if it is some disinterested, detached observer... when in fact it's the pivotal player here still."

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Personal accounts of the invasion’s start: 03:18 – 04:22
• Changing perceptions of the war: 04:39 – 06:32
• Impact on Ukrainian society: 07:07 – 08:17
• Wartime politics and corruption: 08:21 – 09:24
• Innovation in warfare: 09:35 – 11:24
• Attrition and exhaustion: 11:24 – 12:40
• Stalemate and Russian struggles: 12:40 – 14:15
• European and global rearmament: 14:15 – 15:43
• Plans for peace and risks: 15:43 – 17:22
• Challenges to a lasting peace: 17:22 – 20:58

Tone and Style

The discussion is sober, reflective, and analytic, punctuated by personal anecdotes, hard data, and occasional flashes of wry humor, but always focused on the gravity and complexity of the war’s consequences.

Conclusion

This anniversary episode delivers a nuanced, multidimensional look at four years of conflict in Ukraine—combining on-the-ground reportage with deep analysis of military, societal, and geopolitical changes. The panel underscores both Ukrainian resilience and the daunting uncertainties ahead, particularly regarding international support, internal divisions, and the difficulties of achieving lasting peace.