Economist Podcasts — "Another all-out war: Afghanistan and Pakistan"

Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer (The Economist)
Episode Theme:
This episode examines the escalating military conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, focusing on its roots, the involvement of militant groups, and broader regional and economic ramifications. The episode also explores the global impact of the ongoing war in Iran on oil prices and inflation, and closes with a cultural segment on the rise of music album listening parties.

Main Segment 1: Afghanistan and Pakistan—A Complex New War

Overview (01:07–09:12)

• Central Theme:
  The intensifying conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly cross-border violence, most notably a devastating Pakistani airstrike on a Kabul hospital on March 16, 2026.
• Featured Guest: Tom Sasse, South Asia Bureau Chief, The Economist

Key Discussion Points

• Genesis of Conflict (03:04–04:31):

  • Pakistan accuses Afghanistan's Taliban government of sheltering the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), driving a surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
  • Quote:
    “Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of sheltering a group called the Pakistani Taliban, known as the TTP, which it says is behind a big rise in terrorist attacks in Pakistan.”
    — Tom Sasse (03:04)

• Historical Relationship (03:48–04:31):

  • Previously a “very complicated relationship”—Pakistan played both sides during the US/NATO occupation of Afghanistan, maintaining ties with the Taliban while being a declared US ally.
  • Many current Taliban leaders were formerly sheltered by Pakistan.
  • Following the Taliban's 2021 takeover, relations rapidly deteriorated.

• Who are the TTP? (04:31–05:30):

  • The Pakistani Taliban, founded in 2007; formerly aligned with the Afghan Taliban but now operates independently.
  • Estimated strength: 7,000–10,000 fighters primarily in northwest Pakistan.
  • Recent attacks include a major suicide bombing in Islamabad; TTP is currently the most active militant group in Pakistan.

• Nature and Escalation of Conflict (05:30–06:32):

  • Since late February, Pakistan has pursued an intense bombing campaign, targeting military sites in Kabul, Kandahar, and Afghan border posts.

  • On March 16, a Pakistani airstrike destroyed a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul, killing at least 143 people, mostly patients—a major escalation.

  • Both countries paused hostilities for Eid, but a return to violence seems imminent.

  • Quote:
    “On 16th of March, there was a significant escalation when one of their airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul and that killed at least 143 people, including many patients.”
    — Tom Sasse (05:57)

• Afghanistan’s Limited Options (06:32–07:51):

  • Afghanistan lacks a functioning air force, making military retaliation difficult.
  • Has resorted to border raids and drone attacks; drone sightings reported over Pakistani cities recently.
  • Analysts speculate the Taliban may escalate by supporting more significant attacks within Pakistan.
  • Civilians increasingly affected—more than 2 million Afghan refugees have been repatriated since 2023; January 2026 alone saw 80,000 cross the border.

• Paths Forward—Hope or Escalation? (07:51–09:12):

  • International actors, notably China, urge restraint.

  • Ongoing war in Iran might constrain both due to interlinked economic and humanitarian impacts—Afghanistan depends on Iran for essentials; Pakistan suffers from the oil shock due to Iranian conflict.

  • A possible “off ramp” (de-escalation path) exists but depends on both sides’ willingness to compromise, which, after the hospital bombing, seems remote in the short term.

  • Quote:
    “I think in the immediate aftermath of this really dreadful bombing of a hospital, it's going to be pretty difficult for the Taliban to publicly come to the table. But we will have to wait and see."
    — Tom Sasse (08:57)

Main Segment 2: Iran, Oil, and the Risk of New Inflation

Overview (10:40–18:18)

• Central Theme:
  The ongoing war in Iran threatens global oil supply, risking a renewed inflation surge reminiscent of the 1970s oil shocks.

• Featured Guest: Joshua Roberts, Capital Markets Correspondent, The Economist

Key Discussion Points

• Economic Domino Effects (10:44–11:43):

  • The Iran conflict has spiked oil prices, which will cascade into higher costs across food, transportation, and general consumption—potentially reigniting inflation.
  • “It's obviously already hit the oil price, but it's set to feed through to food prices, to transport prices... and pretty much everything else that takes energy as an input.”
    — Joshua Roberts (10:49)

• Mechanics of Inflation Transmission (11:12–12:21):

  • Energy costs seep into all goods/services; input costs go up for businesses → consumer prices rise.
  • Fertilizer shortages (with vital compounds trapped in transport bottlenecks) impact food production directly and rapidly.
  • Notable Insight: Prices for globally traded commodities like fertilizer and natural gas (used to make fertilizer and stuck due to Strait of Hormuz blockages) trigger food inflation preemptively.

• Inflation Expectations and the Wage-Price Spiral (12:21–14:17):

  • Central bankers expect oil/energy shocks to dissipate, but repeated shocks change consumer/worker expectations.
  • If workers expect ongoing price rises, they demand higher wages—employers raise prices further to offset costs, creating a self-perpetuating “wage-price spiral.”
  • Quote:
    “If people start doing that across the economy, then that creates its own new pressures because one person's wages are another person's costs. So the effect... causes prices to rise faster... economists call the wage-price spike spiral.”
    — Joshua Roberts (13:09)

• Historical Parallels and Current Risks (14:17–15:28):

  • World experienced this in the 1970s; the danger now is that repeated shocks are “no longer viewed as one-offs,” entrenching inflation expectations.

• Central Bank Challenges in the Current Crisis (16:08–17:44):

  • IMF rule of thumb: Every 10% sustained rise in oil equals +0.4 percentage points inflation; current 50% increase suggests +2% global inflation.

  • Complications: Central bankers wary of past mistakes (slow response to 2022 energy shock) but also under political pressure not to raise rates rapidly (notably in the US with the recent Fed leadership change under President Trump).

  • The oil shock hurts not just inflation but overall economic growth, putting central bankers in a policy dilemma.

  • Quote:
    “Central bankers now have this tug of war going on in their heads. On the one hand, they don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the previous shock... On the other hand... President Trump has just appointed a new chair of the Federal Reserve... sympathetic with President Trump’s wish... for interest rates to fall. So if Kevin Walsh, the incoming Fed chair, starts raising interest rates instead, you can kind of expect all hell to break loose.”
    — Joshua Roberts (16:29)

• Reflection on Economic Coverage (17:44–18:18):

  • Lighthearted worry expressed by Jason Palmer that such discussions contribute to higher inflation expectations—Joshua Roberts reassures that “listeners to The Intelligence are frankly too intelligent for that.”

Brief Segment: The Rise of Listening Parties

(18:39–21:57)

Overview:

• Central Theme:
  Music album listening parties are revolutionizing the fan experience, turning what was once an industry-insider preview into a major part of album marketing and community-building.

• Featured Guest: Caitlin Talbot, Digital Culture Correspondent, The Economist

Key Discussion Points

• A New Communal Experience (18:58–19:38):

  • Post-pandemic, listening parties provide a “communal experience” for fans to collectively preview new albums before public release.
  • Quote:
    “Listening parties are more of like a communal experience, because you can easily like listen to the album on your own at midnight, but getting to listen to it beforehand, especially with other people who are fans as well…you kind of get to have a feel of what the album will be like, what other people's reactions are.”
    — Jet, Bruno Mars fan (19:14)

• Evolution from Exclusivity to Marketing Staple (19:38–21:16):

  • Once exclusive to industry insiders, now widespread: Examples include Harry Styles, Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift, Kanye West.
  • Events foster early fan engagement, drive physical album sales (crucial in the streaming era), and rank higher on industry charts.
  • Labels find listening parties boost first-week sales by 10–20%.
  • Exclusive merchandise, giveaways, and immersive experiences heighten fan connection even without the artist present.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the Human Cost of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict:
  “This war is also starting to produce a pretty big refugee crisis.”
  — Tom Sasse (07:31)

• On the Difficulty of De-escalation Post-Hospital Bombing:
  “It's going to be pretty difficult for the Taliban to publicly come to the table.”
  — Tom Sasse (08:57)

• On Inflation’s Psychological Effects:
  "The more we’re all talking about inflation, the more likely it is that people's inflation expectations go up and therefore that becomes self-fulfilling.”
  — Joshua Roberts (17:56)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Start Time | |---------|-------|------------| | Opening: Show Intro | (skip) | 01:07 | | Main: Afghanistan-Pakistan War | 01:07–09:12 | | Main: Oil Shock & Inflation | 10:40–18:18 | | Culture: Listening Parties | 18:39–21:57 |

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive look at the dangerous escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, delves into the ripple effects of the Iran conflict on global inflation, and captures a unique cultural shift among music fans. The insights from the Economist's correspondents illuminate both the complexity and interconnectedness of current world affairs, with memorable segments that blend hard analysis with human stories and evolving cultural trends.