Bibi, one more time? Israel’s election launches

Summary

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Podcast Summary: “Bibi, one more time? Israel’s election launches”

Podcast: Economist Podcasts (The Intelligence)
Host: Rosie Blore
Episode Date: May 20, 2026

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Overview

This episode of The Intelligence from The Economist examines the dramatic launch of Israel’s new election, focusing on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, the circumstances causing yet another vote, and what the campaign’s main themes are likely to be. Further segments report on America’s future in African counterterrorism efforts and the unlikely World Cup debut of Cape Verde.

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Segment 1: The Dissolution of the Knesset & An Election for Netanyahu’s Future

(Start: 02:01; Segment ends: 09:54)

Key Discussion Points

• Trigger for New Elections

  • The Knesset, Israel's parliament, is voting on a bill that will dissolve the government and bring elections forward to as early as September 2026 ([02:53]).
  • The immediate trigger is a rift between Netanyahu and his long-time ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over an undelivered promise: a law to exempt yeshiva (seminary) students from military service ([03:41]).
  • The breakdown of this alliance could signal the end of Netanyahu’s enduring pact with ultra-Orthodox parties.

• Gaza War’s Dominance Over Israeli Politics

  • The October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack—“10-7-23”—where over 1,200 Israelis were killed, remains the central trauma for Israeli voters ([04:26]).
  • Failures in Israeli policy and intelligence leading up to the attack, and Netanyahu’s refusal to establish a national commission of inquiry, dominate opposition demands ([05:10]).
  • Quote:

    “Gaza still means one thing, and that’s 10-7-23…” – Anshul Pfeffer, Israel correspondent ([04:26])

  • The war’s conduct (massive civilian deaths and destruction in Gaza) is less of an electoral issue inside Israel, as most Israelis see the war as justified. A deeper reckoning with the Gaza war may only come under a different government ([05:24]).

• Regional Security Context—Lebanon & Iran

  • Ongoing, inconclusive conflicts in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and with Iran also loom over the election ([06:43]).
  • Israelis broadly support the wars’ aims but criticize the lack of decisive outcomes.

    “…the criticism is not so much of Netanyahu going to war, but failing to prosecute that war in a decisive manner.” – Anshul Pfeffer ([07:00])

• Judicial Reform Protests

  • Prior to October 7, Netanyahu was highly controversial for his push to weaken Israel's judiciary, sparking massive protests ([07:32]).
  • The coming election will be a referendum both on these radical government policies and Netanyahu himself.

• Netanyahu’s Prospects and Survival

  • Uncertainty remains over whether Netanyahu will actually stand, due to health and ongoing corruption charges (which he denies). Despite rumors, Pfeffer is skeptical that Netanyahu could step away after 40 years in the political arena ([08:24]).

    “I don’t think he has a life outside of this, and I’ll be surprised if he resigns.” – Anshul Pfeffer ([08:53])

  • No predictions: Netanyahu’s resilience is legendary, but polling suggests his coalition lacks a majority. The challenge for the opposition is not just to win more seats, but to form an alternative government ([09:06]).

    “Anybody who’s covered Israeli politics… knows that you never bet against Netanyahu.” – Anshul Pfeffer ([09:06])

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Segment 2: America’s Counterterrorism Engagement in Africa

(Start: 11:45; Segment ends: 18:37)

Key Discussion Points

• Operation Flintlock: Annual US-Led Training Exercise

  • Tom Gardner, Africa correspondent, describes a dramatic counterterrorism training exercise in Ivory Coast ([11:53–12:53]).
  • “Operation Flintlock” has run since 2005, led by US Special Forces and including dozens of West and North African forces.
  • Training now incorporates drone operations and online counter-propaganda, with social media influencers invited for the first time ([15:52]).

• America’s Waning Influence vs. Russian Encroachment

  • US officials frame the operation as a sign of continued partnership—implicitly competing with Russian and Chinese offers ([13:54]).
  • Participation is incomplete: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—three countries most plagued by jihadist violence—were absent, having turned toward Russia after cutting Western ties since 2020 ([14:39–15:17]).

    “…there’s a lot of, frankly, bad blood…they’ve drawn much closer to Russia in recent years.” – Tom Gardner ([15:17])

• Effectiveness and Limits of Western Aid & Training

  • Despite decades of investment, terrorism has spread further in the region. Results are underwhelming, especially as jihadist groups innovate (notably with drones) faster than governments adapt ([17:43]).

    “The short answer is they have not been massively effective…over the subsequent two decades, a huge amount of resources and money have been invested…but at the same time, over that period, jihadism has continued to spread.” – Tom Gardner ([17:43])

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Segment 3: Cape Verde’s World Cup Debut

(Start: 18:50; Segment ends: 22:56)

Key Discussion Points

• Cape Verde—Tiny Nation, Huge Dream

  • John Fazman profiles Cape Verde’s national football team, which has qualified for the World Cup for the first time ([18:50]).
  • It is a moment of immense pride for the diaspora community, as highlighted by interviews with Cape Verdean players and supporters in London ([19:13–22:56]).

    “We are the underdogs… but at this point we've already put ourselves in that position and I just hope that they do well.” – Player 1 ([19:13]) “We're representing Africa as well, not just our country, because if a nation so small...can qualify...it just shows other small African nations...that, you know, it’s possible.” – Player 3 ([19:29])

• David vs. Goliath Story

  • The team, a blend of homegrown players and diaspora athletes, will face tough opponents—Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, and Spain—but supporters are hopeful ([21:38–21:57]).
  • Notably, Roberto Lopez, an Irish-born defender, joined after being recruited through a LinkedIn message—in Portuguese ([21:01]).

• Symbolic Impact

  • For many, this debut transcends football—signaling hope, representation, and the power of sport to unite and inspire, especially among global Cape Verdean youth ([22:15–22:56]).

    “Football is just a way that we can connect with one another, even if we speak different languages. It’s just a wonderful sport.” – Player 3 ([22:23]) “Just know that we’re coming and we’re coming to show ourselves; we’re not the underdogs.” – Player 1 ([22:56])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Netanyahu’s Survival:

  “I don’t think he has a life outside of this, and I'll be surprised if he resigns.” – Anshul Pfeffer ([08:53])

• On the Gaza Debate in Israeli Politics:

  “…the destruction, the death in Gaza, I think is something which will play out in Israel for years to come. And it needs both a different government that is capable of starting this national reckoning…” – Anshul Pfeffer ([05:24])

• On the Limited Results of US Counterterrorism Efforts:

  “…this approach has not worked quite as well as America had hoped.” – Tom Gardner ([17:43])

• On Cape Verde’s Football Spirit:

  “We’re representing Africa as well, not just our country...” – Cape Verde Football Player 3 ([19:29])
  “Just know that we’re coming and we’re coming to show ourselves; we’re not the underdogs.” – Player 1 ([22:56])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:01 — Israel’s election campaign and Netanyahu’s fate
• 03:41 — Why the government is collapsing
• 04:26 — October 7th and its impact on voters
• 05:10 — Lack of a Gaza inquiry commission as an election issue
• 06:43 — Lebanon, Iran, and other security threats
• 07:32 — Reminder of judicial reform protests
• 08:24 — Will Netanyahu stand? Leadership rumors
• 09:06 — Predictions: Never bet against Netanyahu
• 11:45 — America’s counterterrorism training in Africa
• 14:39 — Key African nations’ absence from exercises
• 15:52 — Training: modern warfare, drones, social media
• 17:43 — Effectiveness of efforts against terrorism
• 18:50 — Cape Verde World Cup feature
• 21:01 — The story of Roberto Lopez and the diaspora
• 22:23 — The broader significance of Cape Verde’s debut

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Tone & Language

• Analytical and measured, reflecting The Economist’s trademark balance between insight and calm detachment.
• Interviews feature straightforward, even blunt, appraisals—especially on Israel’s political unpredictability and the hard-to-measure value of Western interventions abroad.
• Cape Verde segment is warm, personal, and hopeful, driven by voices of players and fans.

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This episode blends hard political analysis with stories of global connection and aspiration, making it a rich listen for anyone interested in current affairs, security, and sport.

Transcript

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The economist.

[Rosie Blore]

Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Rosie Blore. Today on the show, will America keep supporting Africa's counterterrorism efforts? And as the World cup approaches, Cape Verde is competing for the first time. First up, though, It would be an understatement to say that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, is a political survivor. Though the collapse of Israel's government has repeatedly been predicted in the past couple of years and many have wished for it only now begins the campaign and the fight for Netanyahu's future.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Today, the Knesset, Israel's parliament, will begin voting on a dissolution bill.

[Rosie Blore]

Anshul Pfeffer is our Israel correspondent and the author of a biography of Benjamin Netanyahu.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

This may bring the election forward, perhaps the beginning of September. As it is, the election is supposed to take place at the latest by the end of October. So whatever the date turns out to be, Israel's already needy in election season, as so many Israeli elections over the last decade or so. This will also be, yet again, a referendum on Netanyahu as prime minister. So his career, his political future, is on the line.

[Rosie Blore]

Just tell me what's triggered this vote now.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

So the most immediate trigger of the vote is a dispute between Netanyahu and the ultra Orthodox parties of his coalition. He promised them four years ago that this government would pass a law exempting students of religious seminaries from national service, serving in the army mainly. He's failed to do that so far, and they've finally given up on waiting. And this also may be the end of his very long and very strong alliance with those ultra orthodox parties, though it's hard to see who they will link up instead of Netanyahu.

[Rosie Blore]

If this is the end, we've got a campaign coming. Gaza is obviously going to feature hugely. What impact do you think it will have?

[Anshul Pfeffer]

As far as Israelis are concerned, Gaza still means one thing, and that's 10-7-23. The surprise attack by Hamas, the massacre of over 1,200 Israelis on that day, and everything that led up to it, the failures of intelligence, the policy that Netanyahu had of basically allowing Hamas to entrench themselves in Gaza, those are still things that greatly concern Israelis. Why it happened, how to prevent it from happening again. Netanyahu has so far refused to even set up a national commission of inquiry. And that is something that all the opposition parties are demanding. So I think that will almost certainly dominate a large part of the election.

[Rosie Blore]

You say that Netanyahu has refused to set up a commission of inquiry. Essentially, what I think you're saying there is that there has been no reckoning about what's happened in Gaza. There's been no proper discussion about the conduct of the war.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

You're talking here now about two things. You're talking here about what happened on October 7th and everything that led up before October 7th. And then you're talking about the conduct of the war, which is everything that's happened in Gaza over the past two and a half years. And that's something that obviously the world is much more focused on. Fact that over 70,000 people, the majority of whom were civilians, had been killed in Gaza, the destruction of much of the area, the fact that the population there were brought to the brink of starvation, and that I don't think will be very much in this election because Israelis are still so fixated on what happened on October 7 and also because Israelis regard the war in Gaza and it doesn't matter whether these Israelis are pro Netanyahu or anti Netanyahu, overwhelmingly regard the war in Gaza as the war that Israel had to fight because of what happened, because of the Hamas attack. The debate on how that war was conducted and all the bad things that happened, the destruction, the death in Gaza, I think is something which will play out in Israel for years to come. And it needs both a different government that is capable of starting this national reckoning and I think also for all of Israelis, the processing of the trauma of what happened. And that's if at all, it's only starting now.

[Rosie Blore]

And will Lebanon or the conflict in Iran play a part?

[Anshul Pfeffer]

So the fact that Israel is still fighting or there are just brief lulls perhaps in the two inconclusive wars, one in Lebanon against Hezbollah and one with Iran, where Israel was fighting together with America, they will also overshadow the election. A majority of Israelis believe that it was justified to go to war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Iran over the nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But they at the same time don't see what these wars have. Achie those threats still exist. So the criticism is not so much of Netanyahu going to war, but failing to prosecute that war in a decisive manner.

[Rosie Blore]

We should remind ourselves that even before October 7, Netanyahu was very controversial, not least for the judicial reforms he was pushing through. Remind us about those so very quickly.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

When the Netanyahu government came to power in December 2022, they pushed a raft of what they called the judicial reform, which was basically a series of laws aimed at weakening the Supreme Court and other parts of the legal establishment that sparked many months of very bitter and large protests in Israel. That still I think will be an issue in this election. And I think there is also a broader issue in this election where it's a referendum of not just on Netanyahu very much will be that, but also on this coalition of religious and far right parties which set out to achieve these radical changes in Israel and which at least half of Israelis are against. And I think they'll be voting on that as well when this election is held.

[Rosie Blore]

Anshul A basic but important question. Will Netanyahu himself stand?

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Well, there are rumors swirling around of Netanyahu both for health reasons and because he's facing corruption charges, which Netanyahu denies. He perhaps will try and find a plea bargain, and part of that will be resign and not stand again. Those rumors are around. I'm not convinced that Zinyahu is even capable of resigning. This is a man who's been for 40 years now in frontline politics. This will be his 12th election campaign as a leader of his Likud party. He'll be 77 when the election finally comes. I don't think he has a life outside of this, and I'll be surprised if he resigns. But the rumors are there.

[Rosie Blore]

And what's your prediction? Who will win this election?

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Anybody who's covered Israeli politics for any length of time, and sadly, I've had to dedicate my entire career to covering them, knows that you never bet against Netanyahu. He's lost before, he's failed to win elections, but he's also achieved some unimaginable comebacks. So I'm not going to put any money on that. But it certainly is a tall order. Almost all the serious pollsters are very clear that his coalition doesn't have a majority, but he does have an advantage in the fact that he's going in and serving prime minister. So it means that not only does the opposition have to win in a majority, they have to be able to build a coalition around another prime minister who will then receive the confidence of the Knesset and replace him. And that is much more difficult than just winning a majority in total.

[Rosie Blore]

Anshell, thank you very much.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Thank you for having me, Rosie.

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[Tom Gardner]

I was in Jacquesville by the sea in Ivory Coast.

[Rosie Blore]

Tom Gardner is our Africa correspondent.

[Tom Gardner]

It was a gray, foggy morning just after sunrise, and I was peering through the undergrowth out towards the sea where a motorboat was coming to shore. A dozen or so men were on board dressed in army fatigues, their faces covered by balaclavas, and I watched them as they leapt onto the shore, disembarked and began prowling through the thick forest, firing their guns. Eventually they reached the building which I was standing near and broke down the door. I had to cover my ears as they shot their guns inside the building. Each room, one by one, they cleaned of terrorists, to use the word they chose, and rescued the hostages.

[Rosie Blore]

Tom, what was going on?

[Tom Gardner]

Well, this was an training exercise. It's held annually in Africa and it's called Operation Flintlock. It's run by the American Special Forces, and they train dozens of mostly west and North African special forces and have done every year practically since 2005. It's sort of a mixture of a boot camp and a networking event. So as countries in the region are threatened by jihadist militant groups in particular, this is an opportunity for these special forces under American guidance to train, swap ideas, build relationships. And the Americans provide much of the funding and logistics with the support as well of several NATO partner countries.

[Rosie Blore]

It's interesting to hear that this is run and part funded by the Americans. Given all that we've heard about cuts in overseas aid from the Trump administration, is this going to continue?

[Tom Gardner]

It did feel familiar a bit. Bit like a throwback. I think. A lot of the budgeting came from before the Trump administration returned to office. So whether it continues long into the future, given NATO rivalries and the general pullback from much of the African continent on the Americans part remains to be seen. But for now, it was certainly billed to me by the officials and officers I spoke to as an opportunity to for America to continue to demonstrate its strength as a security partner, particularly in comparison to rivals such as Russia and China.

[Rosie Blore]

So who is actually involved in this exercise?

[Tom Gardner]

Well, there's about 1,500 soldiers. What was Interesting for me, covering the crisis in West Africa and the Sahel region, where jihadist groups have been running amok for sort of best part of a decade now. The three countries most affected by jihadism, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, they declined to participate. And that's despite recent American efforts to restore security cooperation with their ruling military government. So they were invited. They chose not to attend.

[Rosie Blore]

And why didn't they attend?

[Tom Gardner]

Well, starting from 2020, these three countries cut ties with Western government. So they booted out in particular French troops who'd been aiding the fight against jihadism, but also American ones, also UN peacekeepers. So there's a lot of frankly bad blood really between these three governments who've drawn much closer to Russia in recent years and in general the west and western aligned countries.

[Rosie Blore]

And of those that were there, you've already mentioned the amphibious mission, but what else are they learning?

[Tom Gardner]

Well, Flintlock has evolved over the years. This year a course on using drones for surveillance and reconnaissance was introduced. That was definitely a big thing, apparently was very popular with the African militaries that were present. Drones are currently being used by jihadist militant groups to great effect. So there was a lot of interest in skilling up in that regard. The Americans as well, they say they've been putting more resources into countering jihadist online propaganda. That's something that has become a real ugber, particularly that there is this evidence and a sense that a lot of this has also been amplified by the Russians. So that's become a key priority. And so for the first time, local social media influencers were invited. So all of this to me seemed in a way as, you know, like a something of a relic of a kind of bygone era of American led multilateralism.

[Rosie Blore]

In terms of content or in terms of its mere existence?

[Tom Gardner]

Its mere existence, certainly. But also, I mean, elements of the exercise that were emphasized to me by American officers included, you know, training local armies in human rights, the rule of law. For example, there was one American officer who gushed about the work they were doing to engage with local communities. Another one mentioned to me that this was an opportunity to get 30 plus countries into a room to talk to each other. Sounded rather like the un, not really like a member of Trump's, the so called Department of War. So in that respect as well, I think it felt a little bit out of sync with the times.

[Rosie Blore]

So Tom, what impact did training exercises like this have on Africa's efforts to counter terrorism?

[Tom Gardner]

Well, I mean, the short answer is they have not been massively effective I mean, if you consider that these exercises began in 2005, and over the subsequent two decades, a huge amount of resources and money have been invested by the US and other Western allies, particularly the French, in counter terror, in training. But at the same time, over that period, jihadism has continued to spread, not just in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, which are really fragile these days, but also some of the coastal nations, including Ivory coast, which has experienced attacks on its northern border, Togo, Benin as well. So I think the evidence today is that this approach has not worked quite as well as America had hoped.

[Rosie Blore]

Tom, thank you very much.

[Tom Gardner]

Thank you, Rosie.

[John Fazman]

On a sunny Sunday in East London, a group of young men from Cape Verde have gathered for football training.

[Rosie Blore]

John Fazman, our senior culture correspondent, is counting down to this summer's FIFA World cup by introducing us to 10 of the teams taking part.

[John Fazman]

Many are wearing the jersey of their home country and have big dreams for Cape Verde at the World cup this summer.

[Cape Verde Football Player 1]

We are the underdogs, if you like. Really and truly we are the underdogs, but at this point we've already put ourselves in that position and I just hope that they do well. That's all it is.

[Cape Verde Football Player 2]

I'm not really aiming for them to win the cup because that sounds a bit extreme.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Right.

[Cape Verde Football Player 2]

But if we get at least like quarter semis, everyone will know about them.

[Cape Verde Football Player 3]

We're representing Africa as well, not just our country, because if a nation so small like Cape Verde can qualify for the World cup, it just shows other small African nations, whether it's African, Caribbean, Asian, that, you know, it's possible.

[John Fazman]

Cape Verde is tiny with a population of just over half a million people. It's an archipelago comprising 10 volcanic islands located 350 miles off the coast of West Africa. The closest countries are Senegal and Mauritania. Uninhabited until Portuguese explorers found the islands in the mid 15th century, Cape Verde has been independent and relatively stable since 1975. This is its first World Cup.

[Cape Verde Football Player 2]

Being such a small nation, a lot of people don't know even where Cape Vedi is. They don't even know K Vedi is a country. So obviously we need to put ourselves out there and show that we're capable.

[Cape Verde Football Player 1]

I'm excited that first time seeing my country in that World cup, like I actually have someone to actually support. Jiguet.

[John Fazman]

Their men's national team came together in 1978, just a few years after the country gained independence from Portugal. Their World cup squad is a mix of homegrown talent and players pulled in from the diaspora, many of whom Play for European clubs.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

Kate Verrett have qualified for the World Cup. Let that sink in. An astonishing achievement for the island nation.

[John Fazman]

Recruiting the squad has given rise to some unlikely origin stories. Roberto Lopez is an Irish born defender who plays for the Shamrock Rovers, a Dublin based team in Ireland's Premier League. He got his invitation to join the team through a LinkedIn message. Initially he ignored it because it was in Portuguese. But after some help from translation apps, he joined the team and helped secure qualification last October to do this.

[Anshul Pfeffer]

To be the first Capab team here to lift all the people of the nation and put them on that stage, there's not a better feeling than that.

[John Fazman]

Now Cape Verde will find it hard going to get out of the group stage. They'll play against Saudi Arabia, Uruguay and Spain. Still, their supporters are optimistic that a sea of blue will be in the stadiums, on the beaches and in the bars. For the blue sharks, they're going to do fairly well.

[Cape Verde Football Player 2]

Obviously we've got Spain. We're playing against Spain in the first match, which is not going to be easy, but I've got faith in them. I think we can put up a good game. There's a lot of confidence in America, to be honest, especially Boston. So I think there will be a good crowd representing us there and pushing the team.

[John Fazman]

But at this football pitch in East London, there's more on these players minds than just watching the games. This whole journey to the World cup has been inspiring.

[Cape Verde Football Player 3]

I feel like it's more than just the people of Cape Verde, it's the entire world. You have people in villages that don't even have shoes that are playing football. Football is just a way that we can connect with one another. Even if we speak different languages. It's just a wonderful sport. It's the best sport.

[John Fazman]

And now these young players have a new goal. To play for their country.

[Cape Verde Football Player 2]

It would mean everything. It's a dream. It's a dream come true. Hopefully I get better and each day we get better and hopefully they see me and I can play for them one day.

[Cape Verde Football Player 1]

So this is a message to the world out there. Just know that we're coming and we're coming to show ourselves we're not the underdogs. And I'll let you guys know that. For now, that's it.

[Rosie Blore]

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.

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