Brave New whirl: Turkey’s opposition overhaul

Summary

Podcast Summary: Economist Podcasts — Brave New Whirl: Turkey’s Opposition Overhaul

Date: July 29, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Correspondent: Piotr Zelebski (Turkey), Wendelin von Bredo (Germany), Tom Wainwright (Culture)
Episode Theme:
This episode dissects the dramatic overhaul of Turkey’s political opposition, focusing on Oskar Ozel’s rise, the collapse of the old guard, and the prospects for genuinely challenging President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Additional segments address the political fallout from a surrogacy scandal in Germany and new perspectives on career advice for Gen Z in an AI-automated economy.

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1. Turkey’s Opposition Overhaul: The Rise of Oskar Ozel and the New Party

[01:06–09:54]

Main Theme

The episode’s leading story tracks how Oskar Ozel, ousted as leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) under suspicious circumstances, quickly founded the “New Party.” The party’s immediate momentum has redrawn Turkey’s political landscape—but faces significant challenges from Erdogan and an entrenched ruling party.

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Key Discussion Points

• Redrawing the Political Map

  • Ozel’s defection prompted at least 91 MPs to leave the CHP for the New Party, instantly making it Turkey’s second largest parliamentary bloc.
  • “At a stroke, Ozel has redrawn Turkey's political map.” — Piotr Zelebski [02:32]

• CHP’s Collapse and New Party’s Surge

  • The CHP, Turkey’s primary opposition since 2002, is eclipsed by the New Party, which polls at over 30%—even above President Erdogan’s AKP.
  • Ozel has taken not only high-profile defectors but also, crucially, the CHP voter base.
  • “Polls suggest Ozel has taken with him not only CHP grandees, but its voters as well.” — Piotr Zelebski [02:39]

• Political Backdrop and Erdogan’s Longevity Tactics

  • Erdogan’s AKP has dominated since 2002, with Erdogan extending his tenure via constitutional changes.
  • Judicial manipulation is apparent, with courts paving the way for another Erdogan term or succession, despite his age.
  • Notably, leading opposition challenger Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed on questionable charges, sidelining credible presidential threats.
  • “Ekrem Imamolu was arrested in March of last year on trumped-up corruption charges and now faces roughly 2,300 years in prison.” — Piotr Zelebski [03:29]

• Ozel’s Gameplan and Challenges

  • The New Party is boldly critical of Erdogan’s concentration of power, but faces the hurdle of broadening appeal beyond former CHP voters, needing center-right, nationalist, and Kurdish support.
  • “It's still unclear whether the New Party can become more than a clone of the CHP, the party from which it broke away.” — Piotr Zelebski [04:57]

• Who is Oskar Ozel?

  • Ozel is a seasoned CHP figure, briefly leading the party and winning landmark local election victories in 2024.
  • Removed by a court ruling thought to be influenced by the regime; replaced by Kilicdaroglu, formerly defeated by Erdogan and considered a weak opponent.
  • “Critics see Erdogan's fingerprints all over the court ruling.” — Piotr Zelebski [05:59]

• CHP Reduced to a ‘Political Zombie’

  • With support at record lows, the CHP resorts to hiring extras for events.
  • “A new low for the CHP came on July 25, when the party held a ceremony... only for reporters to discover that hundreds of the people in attendance had in fact been extras who had been recruited by casting agencies and paid roughly $20 each to show up and cheer.” — Piotr Zelebski [07:36]

• Future for the Opposition

  • Despite momentum, the New Party faces state repression, a coopted judiciary, and systematic arrests.
  • Immediate focus for the opposition is “political survival,” not just electioneering.
  • “They may emerge in fighting shape, or at least be poised to give Erdogan a fight. Erdogan has pruned the opposition into what he believes to be manageable shape, but the opposition may yet grow back stronger.” — Piotr Zelebski [08:25]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Ozel has redrawn Turkey's political map.” — Piotr Zelebski [02:32]
• “Ekrem Imamolu... now faces roughly 2,300 years in prison.” — Piotr Zelebski [03:29]
• “The CHP seems to be on its way to obscurity or to becoming something of a political zombie.” — Piotr Zelebski [07:36]
• “In the short term, it seems that the opposition and the New Party will be consumed less by how to prepare for elections than how to ensure their own political survival.” — Piotr Zelebski [08:25]

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2. Germany’s Surrogacy Scandal and Political Fallout

[11:47–18:08]

Main Theme

An exposé on the resignation of Jens Spahn, until recently a parliamentary leader in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, after revelations that he and his husband used illegal surrogacy abroad—contradicting his vocal support for a domestic ban.

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Key Discussion Points

• Hypocrisy and Public Outcry

  • Spahn’s personal actions starkly contradicted his political stance, triggering widespread outrage and celebration over his departure.
  • “It caused such an outrage because of the hypocrisy, because of the double standard.” — Wendelin von Bredo [12:18]
  • “When the news of Jens Sprang's resignation broke, they were cheering and clapping the news, which is very unusual.” — Wendelin von Bredo [12:55]

• Context of the Ban

  • Germany, along with other major EU countries, strictly bans surrogacy. Majority public opinion supports this.

• Spahn’s Unpopularity and Previous Scandals

  • Spahn was already deeply unpopular, involved in financial and conflict-of-interest controversies, including pandemic-era contracts and ties to controversial figures.
  • “Jens Spahn is friendly with Richard Grinnell, who is a former American ambassador here in Berlin, and Peter Thiel, who is a controversial hard right tech mogul.” — Wendelin von Bredo [14:00]

• Impact on Chancellor Merz and Party

  • Merz had sought to keep the scandal contained but was forced to accept Spahn's resignation amid backlash—a move considered clumsy and damaging ahead of key elections.
  • The scandal prompted an additional, minor cabinet reshuffle, including the firing of an unpopular transport minister.

• Prospects for the CDU and Merz

  • The handling of the scandal may harm Merz and the CDU, especially ahead of critical elections in eastern Germany, with the populist right AfD leading in the polls.
  • “The way he handled it made him even more unpopular than he was before and will probably hurt his party's chances...” — Wendelin von Bredo [17:02]

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Notable Quotes

• “It caused such an outrage because of the hypocrisy, because of the double standard.” — Wendelin von Bredo [12:18]
• “When the news of Jens Sprang's resignation broke, they were cheering and clapping the news, which is very unusual.” — Wendelin von Bredo [12:55]
• “The way [Chancellor Merz] handled it made him even more unpopular than he was before and will probably hurt his party's chances at these very important elections in eastern Germany in September.” — Wendelin von Bredo [17:02]

---

3. Gen Z Career Advice in an Age of AI

[18:38–22:44]

Main Theme

The traditional maxim to “follow your passion” is scrutinized through the lens of economic uncertainty and surging AI-driven job displacement. Tom Wainwright reviews current careers advice literature.

---

Key Discussion Points

• AI Disruption to Entry-Level Work

  • New grads now face not just a tight market, but direct competition with AI replacing entry-level jobs.
  • “Gen Z graduates are sending off hundreds of applications with the help of AI just to be rejected by AI powered human resources departments.” — Tom Wainwright [18:51]

• Questioning “Follow Your Passion”

  • Books by Bill Gurley and Jodi Kantor encourage dream-chasing, but Wainwright sees them as steeped in survivorship bias—pointing out their own exceptional, unrelatable success.
  • “While both of these books contain some good advice, I felt they both suffered from a bit of survivorship bias...” — Tom Wainwright [19:40]

• Alternative: Get Good, Do Good, and Passion Will Follow

  • Benjamin Todd’s “80,000 Hours” recommends focusing on skill-building in socially impactful fields.
  • “Contrary to popular belief, he argues, you should not follow your dreams. For one thing, plenty of people don't actually know what they want to do when they're 21 years old...” — Tom Wainwright [20:03]
  • Effectiveness, not self-obsessed passion, should drive career decisions—especially with AI lurking in so many industries.

• Realistic Reassurance and “Give It Time”

  • Many successful people have circuitous paths; young people are encouraged to persist and avoid the “passion trap.”
  • “Give it time. And above all, don't fall for the passion trap. Instead of looking inward, get good at something that helps others and passion will follow.” — Tom Wainwright [22:34]

---

Notable Quotes

• “Gen Z graduates are sending off hundreds of applications with the help of AI just to be rejected by AI powered human resources departments.” — Tom Wainwright [18:51]
• “Give it time. And above all, don't fall for the passion trap. Instead of looking inward, get good at something that helps others and passion will follow.” — Tom Wainwright [22:34]

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4. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Turkey’s New Party and Opposition Realignment: 01:06–09:54
• Germany’s Surrogacy Scandal: 11:47–18:09
• Gen Z & The Future of Career Advice: 18:38–22:44

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5. Episode Tone & Style

• Analytical, investigative, and sharply critical
• Clever, data-driven observations from correspondents
• Direct, at times wry quote attributions

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6. Memorable Moments

• The image of Turkey’s main opposition hiring paid extras for a rally [07:36]
• The “zombie” metaphor for the once-proud CHP [07:36]
• The blunt debunking of the “follow your passion” credo for young job-seekers [22:34]

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7. Conclusion

This episode offers a brisk yet profound look at political reinvention under pressure, the hazards of hypocrisy in leadership, and the pitfalls and promises of building a career in a rapidly changing technological era. For listeners, it is a status update on European power struggles and a reality check for anyone advising—or being advised—how to get ahead.

Transcript

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[Jason Palmer]

The economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, a surrogacy scandal continues to roil German politics, and traditional career advice falls short for Gen Z. First up though, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long claimed that his justice and Development, or AK Party, deserved new opposition. Well, on Friday he got his wish. Oskar Ozel had been leader of the Republican People's Party, but in May he was shunted aside in suspicious circumstances. So he started a new party called the New Party. As an opening move. It's gone surprisingly well. Problem is, as recent history has shown again and again, Mr. Erdogan doesn't really want a credible opposition.

[Piotr Zelebski]

At a stroke, Ozel has redrawn Turkey's political map.

[Jason Palmer]

Pyotr Zelebski is our Turkey correspondent.

[Piotr Zelebski]

At least 91 MPs from the Republican People's Party, or CHP, the party Ozel headed until may, have defected to his new party, already making it the second biggest in Parliament. The CHP had been Turkey's biggest opposition party since 2002. That honor now belongs to the New Party. Polls suggest Ozel has taken with him not only CHP grandees, but its voters as well. Some put support for the new party at over 30% ahead of Erdogan's justice and Development Party.

[Jason Palmer]

So before we get into the new party, let's talk about how we got where we are. What's the backdrop in which all of this is happening?

[Piotr Zelebski]

Erdogan and his justice and Development, or AK Party have led Turkey for the past quarter century. They swept to power in 2002, with Erdogan becoming prime minister in 2003 and president in 2014. The CHP had been until the emergence of the New Party, the country's main opposition. From that very moment, meaning from 2002 onwards, Erdogan has already extended his time in office, once through constitutional changes. He pushed through in 2017, this time around to give himself a shot at another term. He is widely expected to ask Parliament to bring forward the coming presidential elections, officially scheduled for 2028 to next year. And the courts have already begun paving the path to another term in office for Turkey's leader or his successor should erdoan, who turns 73 next year, be unable to run. The man acknowledged by pollsters as the candidate best place to take on Erdogan in the coming presidential elections, Ekrem Imamolu was arrested in March of last year on trumped up corruption charges and now faces roughly 2,300 years in prison.

[Jason Palmer]

So in a sense, a more effective opposition party was needed. I mean, what is Mr. Ozel's plan here?

[Piotr Zelebski]

Well, it remains to be seen whether the New Party becomes a more effective opposition than the chp for now. Obviously it has positioned itself as the main opposition to Erdogan's AG Party. It is critical of Erdogan's concentration of power. But it's still unclear whether the New Party can become more than a clone of the chp, the party from which it broke away. Now, the CHP is a secular social democratic party. For the New Party to inherit the CHP base will probably be relatively easy, and polls suggest this has happened already. What is going to be more difficult is for the New Party to draw in voters from the center right, to draw in some secular nationalists and some Kurdish voters, and it does not appear to have done so yet.

[Jason Palmer]

Well, I guess that's Mr. Ozel's job now that he's got this New party under him and all this momentum. But what do you expect from him? Who is he?

[Piotr Zelebski]

Well, Ozel is not new to politics at all, had been a longtime member of the CHP before his resignation. He took over the party in 2023 after general elections that the CHP was to do well in, but in which it badly underperformed. He headed the CHP for three years until May when he was deposed by court decree. His biggest achievement came in 2024 when the CHP prevailed over the OCK party in local elections, en route to its best result in about half a century. Now, the court that deposed Ozel did so by concluding that the party congress that had elected him in 2023 had been rigged and replaced him with kemal Kilistaroglu, the CHP's former leader. When Ozel's supporters said they would not abide by the verdict, police stormed the party's headquarters. Critics see Erdogan's fingerprints all over the court ruling. Kilistarolu is seen as an opponent that Erdogan can tame. And indeed, during his previous tenure as head of the chp, Kilish Starolu had guided the party to a string of defeats, including his own loss to erDogan in the 2023 presidential elections.

[Jason Palmer]

So Mr. Erdogan tried to eliminate a threat, and now his threat finds himself at the top of a new party that has all this momentum. Meanwhile, though, what happens to the chp, or what's left of it?

[Piotr Zelebski]

Well, the CHP seems to be on its way to obscurity or to becoming something of a political zombie. Polls suggest that its support has melted down to the single digits. A new low for the CHP came on July 25, when the party held a ceremony presided over by Mr. Kilistarolu to welcome new members, only for reporters to discover that hundreds of the people in attendance had in fact been extras who had been recruited by casting agencies and paid roughly $20 each to show up and cheer.

[Jason Palmer]

So you wonder whether Mr. Ozel, in his new guise, has a chance. He hasn't shored up all the support you said he may well need. And he is definitely going to face some old and some new challenges from Mr. Erdogan and the AK Party. Do you think there's a shot for him?

[Piotr Zelebski]

On paper, yes. On paper, Ozel and his party have a decent chance to give Erdogan and AK a run for their money. In practice, however, they do face a number of major hurdles, not least growing repression and a judiciary beholden to Erdogan. The biggest challenger to Erdogan, Ekremolu, has already been all but eliminated from the race. At least 26 other CHP mayors, as well as hundreds of other local officials and municipal workers have been arrested in the past couple of years. There are rumors that Mansur Yavash, the mayor of Ankara and Imamolu's the CHP's backup candidate for president, might be next. So in the short term, it seems that the opposition and the New Party will be consumed less by how to prepare for elections than how to ensure their own political survival. So assuming the New Party and the rest of the opposition can endure the crackdowns that are almost bound to take place over the next months. They may emerge in fighting shape, or at least be poised to give Erdogan a fight. Erdogan has pruned the opposition into what he believes to be manageable shape, but the opposition may yet grow back stronger.

[Jason Palmer]

Piotr, thank you very much for your

[Piotr Zelebski]

time, and thanks for having me.

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[Jason Palmer]

It's not often that a picture of a baby can lead to a government reshuffle, but that is what's going on in Germany. Jens Spahn was, until recently the parliamentary leader of the governing Centre Right coalition. But then he casually revealed that he and his husband had become parents, having used a surrogate abroad, a practice that, as he well knows, would have been illegal in Germany. Mr. Spahn is now out and it's Chancellor Friedrich Merz who's left holding the proverbial baby.

[Wendelin von Bredo]

So it caused such an outrage because of the hypocrisy, because of the double standard.

[Jason Palmer]

Wendelin von Bredo is our senior Germany correspondent.

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Jens Vahn was an outspoken defender of the complete ban of surrogacy in Germany. In February, he signed his resolution advocating a complete ban of surrogacy in Germany. His Baby was in the oven. This was just so obviously not what he said he should do and what's legal in Germany, that it really rubbed people the wrong way.

[Jason Palmer]

So tell me about the outcry. What are you hearing about it?

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Well, this story has been the talk of Berlin. I had people in the queue at the supermarket, I had people in a cafe. A friend told me she landed in Berlin, coming back from Mallorca full of Germans, of course. And when the news of Jens Sprang's resignation broke, they were cheering and clapping the news, which is very unusual. These things normally don't happen. Public outrage was such that Chancellor Matz Friedrich Max, who had initially also, I think underestimated how people would react. You know, after a few days of this storm, he asked Jenschuan to resign. So initially they thought he could get away with it, but then he didn't.

[Jason Palmer]

And so what is the general German attitude towards surrogacy at the moment?

[Wendelin von Bredo]

At the moment the majority of public opinion is very much in favor of the ban, as was Jens Span in the past. And Germany's not alone. So surrogacy is banned in all big European Union countries. It's banned in France, Spain and Italy. But then it's also about Jens Spahn, who has been a divisive figure even before the scandal.

[Jason Palmer]

What do you mean by that?

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Well, he has been for a while one of Germany's least popular politicians. He's always very close to the bottom of these popularity rankings. And there's been a series of mini scandals that he's been involved in. I mean, in 2020 he got a loan for a villa in Dahlem, which is a very posh part, a 4 million euro loan from a bank where he had served on a supervisory board. And then during the pandemic when he was Health Minister, he had awarded a contract for overpriced face masks to a firm employing his husband. And of course the Health Ministry says that there's been no preferential treatment, but the optics is not good. And then many in Germany really don't like his marker connections. So Jens Spahn is friendly with Richard Grinnell, who is a former American ambassador here in Berlin, and Peter Thiel, who is a controversial hard right tech mogul. So all this, this whole package made Spahn a disliked and unpopular figure even before this latest episode happened.

[Jason Palmer]

And what is Chancellor Mertz saying about this latest episode?

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Well, initially I think he was intending to hold on to Jens Spahn in his job, but then he realized the extent of the public outcry and the Outrage and so then asked him to resign. So this was not something Jens Span had offered to do, but he was made to go. Spahn was actually a one time rival of Merz. He ran against Merz for the leadership of the cdu, the Christian Democratic Union. But he was useful to me as a very effective negotiator in the coalition talks at the beginning of the Maz government and also more recently in the talks about a big reform package which was passed on the 1st of July. So he was useful for the Chancellor, but there were no, never buddies.

[Jason Palmer]

So question is, what happens now?

[Wendelin von Bredo]

So today on July 29, lawmakers from the coalition parties, so the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union are interrupting their holiday to vote in person on Mr. Spahn's successor in Berlin. And it is Thorstenfei, the head of the Federal Chancellor, who will be his replacement. But actually Mats also took this whole episode as a reason for not a big cabinet reshuffle, but a small one. And he also over the weekend decided to fire his Transport minister who is very unpopular. One of the main reasons for his lack of popularity are the troubles of Deutsche Bahn of the National Railways, which is notoriously late and just doesn't work properly. But there are many things to sort out in Germany. It's the trains that are late, it's the economy that's weakening. So this was the last thing Mr. Merz needed.

[Jason Palmer]

I guess the last question is whether this will have a sort of lasting effect on Mr. Mertz himself.

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Well, it could have helped him. It could have been a chance to somehow reboot his government with a slight change of personnel, in particular in the light of the upcoming elections in eastern German states. There's one in September, really important election in Saxony Anhalt, another in Mecklenburg Vorpohmann, and it both states the populist right AfD is in the lead. But it is actually probably hurting Mr. Merz just because of the way he handled it. I mean, the surrogacy scandal was certainly not good for the CDU because it was such an incident of double standards and of a very unpopular politician who is still part of his team. So Chancellor Mertz could have had a fine start of the summer. He had just passed his big reform package, which was generally well received, and his last press conference before the summer was also sort of quite optimistic. But then this whole scandal erupted and the way he handled it made him even more unpopular than he was was before and will probably hurt his party's chances at these very important elections in eastern Germany in September.

[Jason Palmer]

Thanks very much as ever for joining us.

[Wendelin von Bredo]

Van der Lind, it's always a pleasure. Jason.

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The unemployment rate for new college grads

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has recently surged, and some economists say businesses are now replacing entry level jobs with artificial intelligence.

[Tom Wainwright]

Leaving university for the tundra of the job market has always been tough, but these days artificial intelligence is making the transition even harder.

[Jason Palmer]

Tom Wainwright is a culture correspondent at the Economist.

[Tom Wainwright]

Gen Z graduates are sending off hundreds of applications with the help of AI just to be rejected by AI powered human resources departments. Some economists have warned that AI could cause large scale unemployment. So what's Gen Z to do? Thankfully, lots of people have written new books offering advice, and I read three of them so you don't have to. The age old advice goes that you should pursue your passions and follow your dreams. That's what's recommended by Bill Gurley, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist who has written a careers book called Running Down a Dream, and also by Jodi Kanter, a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist at the New York Times who has published a book called how to Start. While that sounds ideal, I couldn't help but feel that both authors show why successful people like them can sometimes make bad careers advice. Jodi Cantor's success as a journalist who uncovered the Harvey Weinstein scandal is not typical. She won a Pulitzer Prize, her book was made into a Hollywood film, and so on. Bill Gurley's book cites podcasters who did what they loved and then made money from it. But despite the fact that you're listening to me on a podcast right now, it's hard to think of a better example than podcasting to illustrate how doing what you love doesn't always lead to a viable job. So while both of these books contain some good advice, I felt they both suffered from a bit of survivorship bias, which made them not totally convincing to me. A more helpful book is Benjamin Todd's 80,000 Hours. It's named after the amount of time you can expect to spend at work over the course of your life. Contrary to popular belief, he argues, you should not follow your dreams. For one thing, plenty of people don't actually know what they want to do when they're 21 years old, and even if they do have a great passion, it may not lead to a job. One study he cites found that nearly 90% of Canadian students said that they loved music, the arts or sport, but these fields accounted for only about 3% of jobs in Canada at the time. Instead, he argues that the advice to follow your passion gets it backwards. In his view, people should focus on getting really good at something, ideally something that helps other people, and they will find that passion for their work will follow from that. The question of how best to help other people is a tricky one. Benjamin Todd draws on the effective altruism movement to argue that, for instance, if you give 10% of an average American salary to a malaria charity, you can expect that over the course of your career you will save about 20 times more lives than if you'd become a doctor. His book tries to identify which fields of work are likely to have the most impact on the global global good, from pandemic prevention to AI regulation. It's all very admirable, but I can see that it could become a bit demoralizing. An emergency doctor could save more lives by working in public health, perhaps, which in turn could be less important than nuclear disarmament, and so on and so on. And if you choose to spend your career on something as frivolous as reviewing books, well, God help you. Either way, job seekers can be reassured that plenty of people take a while to find their life's work. Tony Blair, for example, was a music promoter before he became Britain's prime prime Minister. And before she became one of America's most celebrated writers, Maya Angelou was a streetcar conductor. The main takeaway from all this? Give it time. And above all, don't fall for the passion trap. Instead of looking inward, get good at something that helps others and passion will follow.

[Jason Palmer]

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

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