Economist Podcasts: "Check in Kyiv: Prospects for Peace?"

Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Rosie Blore
Key Contributors: Oliver Carroll (Ukraine Correspondent), Claire McHugh (Latin America Correspondent), Sunny Loughran (Britain Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode of "The Intelligence" from The Economist takes a close look at the fraught situation in Ukraine as the war approaches its fourth anniversary. The main theme centers on the prospects for peace amid ongoing violence, recent peace talks, and shifting public attitudes in Ukraine. The episode also briefly covers anti-drug operations in Colombia and the gap between perception and reality regarding crime in London.

Ukraine: Stalemate and Prospects for Peace

1. The Context—Four Years of War

• As Ukraine faces a bitterly cold winter, the country grapples with the destruction of its energy infrastructure and constant drone attacks.
• Recent incidents, such as the drone attack on miners and a passenger train (02:46–03:18), highlight the ongoing brutality.

Notable Quote:

"[Drones] had cameras and operators. Pilots had full understanding that this is peaceful people and they hit them intentionally."
—Oletsky Povolotsky, DTEK energy company, relayed by Ollie Millar (03:02)

2. State of Peace Talks

• While American-led peace talks have resulted in a prisoner swap, there’s little headway towards a true ceasefire.
• Sources from Ukraine's negotiation team report, "for the first time the Russians are showing a level of constructive approach," though key blockages remain—especially on security guarantees and territorial arrangements. (04:40–06:27)
• The possibility of a demilitarized zone along the current front is the main compromise under discussion.

Notable Quote:

"Lines are appearing that could frame the end of this four year war. And we’re reaching the hour of decisions now… This could be the moment."
—Oliver Carroll (Ukraine Correspondent), (04:03–04:29)

"Putin had begun to show some openness to this idea of a demilitarized zone. Zelensky... signaled some kind of flexibility, but only on a reciprocal basis."
—Oliver Carroll (06:06)

3. On the Battlefield

• The military situation is a "mixed picture":
  • Russia is making minor advances at enormous cost—35,000 Russian soldiers allegedly killed or wounded in December alone.
  • Ukraine is struggling with resilience, especially after energy infrastructure attacks and a ramp-up of Russian drone manufacturing (up to 400 per day). (06:35–07:38)

4. Impact on Civilians

• Ukrainian civilians are exhausted.
• Support for a compromise or pause in fighting is rising, with around 40% of Ukrainians open to some concessions (07:45).
• The plight of those in Russian-occupied regions is dire, with the last open humanitarian corridor still used by desperate families (08:00–09:12).
• Underground resistance networks have been largely eliminated in occupied areas, making the return and escape ever harder.

Notable Quote:

"People are tired, really tired... as much as 40% are now saying they would be ready for some kind of compromise."
—Oliver Carroll (07:45–08:00)

5. Political Dynamics and Leadership

• Reports suggest Ukraine's leadership is "hedging its bets," balancing American negotiation tracks with military reform and continued resistance.
• The narrative that US security guarantees hinge on Ukraine holding quick elections is oversimplified; the real situation is more nuanced and hinges on broader political bargains. (09:12–10:38)

"Plan A is this American-led negotiation... Plan B, fighting on with the strengthened armies... few believe this war is going to end soon."
—Oliver Carroll (09:17–10:38)

6. Outlook

• Genuine, if cautious, optimism emerges. A ceasefire or "pause" is possible—"maybe as much as 50-50 sometime this year, maybe as soon as March." (10:42–11:05)

Notable Quote:

"For the first time in a long time, you might say quite promising, certainly for a pause... maybe as much as 50-50 sometime this year, maybe as soon as March."
—Oliver Carroll (10:42)

Colombia: Anti-Drug Raids and Their Limits

1. Police Raids Against Coca Labs

• Claire McHugh reports from a raid in the Colombian Amazon, where militarized police regularly torch clandestine labs producing coca paste (12:09–14:02).
• Daily destruction: police destroyed a dozen labs by the time of her visit, but replacements spring up almost instantly.

2. The Human Cost for Farmers

• Farmers often run these labs under duress or because of economic necessity.
• Police interventions risk destroying their sole source of income, making poor farmers like "Esperanza" collateral damage. (15:05–16:23)

3. Effectiveness and International Pressure

• Despite record levels of cocaine seized (61% more under Petro since 2022 compared to previous government), cocaine production is also at an all-time high. (16:31–17:42)
• President Gustavo Petro faces intense pressure from the Trump administration for greater crackdowns, leading to public political clashes and shifting diplomatic dynamics (17:46–18:37).

Notable Quote:

“All anti-drugs policy is treading water. In short, no one has any ideas that will actually fix this problem… as long as cocaine remains illegal and world demand for the drug is insatiable, these jungle laboratories in Colombia will continue to stay in business."
—Claire McHugh (18:43)

London Crime: Fact vs. Perception

1. The Narrative of Lawlessness

• Sunny Loughran explores how London’s reputation for violent crime and especially knife crime is amplified by social media, politicians, and click-driven online content (19:47–21:29).

Notable Quotes & Moments:

• “Type 'London simulator' into TikTok and you will be presented with a series of videos...bounds around with a knife, dagger or sword…Such is London’s online reputation.”
  —Sunny Loughran (20:37)
• “London is safer than Paris or Berlin. New York has around three times as many murders.”
  —Sunny Loughran (21:29)

2. What the Data Shows

• Actual crime statistics indicate:
  • Violent crime and murder rates have declined.
  • Hospital admissions for knife-related wounds are at 13-year lows (21:30).
• The biggest increases are in thefts and shoplifting—not violence.

3. The Social Media/Political Feedback Loop

• Social media posts about London crime have doubled, with posts relating to Islam, migrants, or race doubling since 2023.
• Algorithms and monetization (X/Twitter paying for engagement) incentivize extreme or negative content (22:15–23:51).
• Public perception shift: recent polling says 61% of Brits see London as unsafe; actual Londoners are far less worried.

Notable Quote:

“Serial Doom Posting pays and inflammatory content gets the most clicks... Given the volume, it’s no surprise that these posts are changing how people see London.”
—Sunny Loughran (23:51)

4. Closing Note

• The best antidote to online hysteria, the hosts suggest, is to actually visit the city and see its reality.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ukraine Conflict & Prospects for Peace: 01:28–11:07
• Colombia Anti-Drugs Missions: 12:09–19:27
• London Crime – Myth vs. Reality: 19:47–24:52

Memorable Moments and Insights

• The painful toll on Ukrainian civilians and the rising willingness to contemplate compromise.
• The Sisyphean nature of Colombia’s anti-drug policy: "treading water" without hope for a solution unless the fundamentals of drug legality or demand change.
• The clear disconnect between data and perception in London’s crime debate, and the role of social media in fueling fear.

Conclusion

The episode highlights the complexity of peace negotiations in Ukraine, the human and policy dilemmas in Colombia’s war on drugs, and the power of online narratives in shaping perceptions about security in London. Each story underlines the need to distinguish between surface narratives and the nuanced realities beneath them.