Podcast Summary: Economist Podcasts – "Clutching at shahs: Iran’s would-be revolutionary"

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Featured Guests: Reza Pahlavi, Nick Palam, Anne Roe, Mike Bird

Episode Overview

This episode of The Intelligence explores three significant stories:

1. The political turmoil in Iran, the rise of Reza Pahlavi as a would-be revolutionary leader, and America’s ambiguous response.
2. Economic analysis on the shifting balance between renting and buying property amid global interest rate changes.
3. The obituary and personal history of notorious CIA traitor Aldrich Ames.

The main focus is Iran’s upheaval, the regime crackdown, and whether exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi is truly positioned as a revolutionary figure for a post-theocracy future.

Key Segment 1: Iran’s Would-Be Revolutionary

Setting the Scene – The Unfolding Crisis

• Jason Palmer provides context on Iran’s deepening unrest:
  • Executed protestors “number in the thousands; many more have been taken into custody.” (01:30)
  • Despite information blackouts, Starlink satellites provide some visibility into events.
  • Notably, protestors have begun chanting for the return of monarchy, a radical shift.

    “Many protesters have called for something that until recently would have begg. Bring back the Shah... and still one name comes up, Reza Pahlavi.” (02:37)

Reza Pahlavi’s View & Ambition

• Reza Pahlavi asserts his relevance:

  “What name has been chanted in the streets of Iran in the last few months?... They have chanted the name of my family, they have called for me.” (03:11)

• Nick Palam, Middle East correspondent, recounts interview impressions:

  • Expectations of Pahlavi as “clown prince” are dispelled; he appears “polished, amiable, and fairly confident.” (03:55)
  • Pahlavi sees himself at a “crucial” juncture to lead Iran’s next chapter.

Context & Stakes

• Nick Palam marks a dramatic escalation in both protests and government repression:

  “You’ve seen protests... sweep the main cities... people describe body bags spilling into the streets. Most Iranians... know somebody who has been killed or arrested.” (04:20–04:57)

• Reza Pahlavi frames events as revolutionary, not merely protest:

  “I don’t call it a protest anymore. This is a revolution. People have had it with this regime. Now is an opportunity to put an end to this misery.” (04:57)

America’s Role & Ambiguous Signals

• Pahlavi pushes for U.S. military intervention, believing protestors are otherwise doomed:

  “Now we’re talking about a conflict where people are getting butchered and massacred and they have no means to defend themselves.” (05:45)

• He calls the protestors “sacrificial lambs” and likens the movement to “a fort... waiting for the cavalry.” (05:52, 05:59)

• In real-time, news comes in that President Trump (then-president) is rolling back plans for intervention:

  “President Trump has been speaking ... he said, ‘we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped, it’s stopping. There’s no plan for executions.’” (06:29, Anne Roe)

• Pahlavi is visibly shocked:

  “I haven’t heard it. I need to hear it on my own and make sure that the veracity of this statement is accurate.” (06:49)

Regime Stability & Prospects

• Nick Palam outlines the regime's desperation and the possibility of a soft landing:

  “So much blood has been spilled. The regime itself is implicated at so many levels. It's really hard to see how they can claw back from that.” (07:42)

• There are fears of civil war if the power vacuum grows.

Is Pahlavi a Unifier or Revolutionary?

• Efforts to build bridges, including outreach to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard; skepticism remains about these alliances’ realism:

  “Without those institutions, it's really hard to see how Reza Pahlavi will return to stand up a state.” (08:39)

• Transitional vision: Pahlavi insists he simply wants to supervise a fair transition, not rule by decree:

  “It’s not ruling by decree. It’s the necessity of having a transitional government in place...the collaboration of elements...to manage this.” (10:11–10:25)

• Pragmatism: He imagines the urgent need to maintain state functions:

  “The day the regime falls, somebody has to still pick up the trash. Electricity and water has to be provided. The country has to continue to function.” (10:57)

• Nick Palam notes a slightly “delusional, almost entitled” air to Pahlavi’s vision, doubting if he can truly unify a fractured, traumatized nation. (11:05–11:33)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Reza Pahlavi: “This is a revolution. People have had it with this regime. Now is an opportunity to put an end to this misery.” --- 04:57
• Nick Palam: “The man we saw was polished, amiable, confident... A very different face of Iran after the Islamic Republic.” --- 03:55
• Jason Palmer: “It seems clear... Mr. Pahlavi is convinced that he is the man of the moment for Iran.” --- 04:11
• Reza Pahlavi: “Fort, we can hold it only up to a point.” --- 05:59
• Anne Roe (quoting Trump): “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped, it’s stopping. There’s no plan for executions.” --- 06:29

Key Segment 2: The Economics of Renting vs. Buying

Overview

Mike Bird, Wall Street correspondent, analyzes the shift in the buy-vs-rent calculus due to rising global interest rates.

• Key takeaways:
  • Cost of buying now exceeds renting by $400/month on average in the U.S.; much more in major cities. (14:25)
  • Building equity is important but not a panacea; lower rent payments free up cash for other investments, sometimes yielding better overall returns. (15:26–17:01)
  • Market specifics (fixed vs. floating-rate mortgages) matter—e.g., in Hong Kong, floating rates have improved buying's odds. (17:10–18:06)
  • Political trends are increasingly in favor of renters, with new rent controls and protections. (19:35–20:41)

Memorable Moment

• Mike Bird: "When the monthly rents are lower than the mortgage repayments, you need to consider the opportunity cost, what else you could be investing in as well." (16:41)

Key Segment 3: Obituary – Aldrich Ames

Story Recap

Anne Roe, obituaries editor, details the life and betrayal of Aldrich Ames:

• Ames, a CIA officer, became the most prolific traitor to the agency, giving up agents to the KGB for money—not ideology. (21:31–23:00)
  • His leaks resulted in the deaths of at least 10 Soviet agents and massive disruption to American intelligence.
  • Ames’s motivation was personal debt and his wife’s extravagant tastes.
  • Despite reckless life and sloppy spycraft, he evaded detection for years.
  • On being caught and on the deaths he caused, he reflected little remorse, feeling his victims would have betrayed him if their positions were reversed. (27:10–27:40)

Standout Quote

• Anne Roe: “It was, in other words, a catastrophe for American intelligence. And it was all the work of this one man, Aldrich Ames." (23:44)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Reza Pahlavi: “What name has been chanted in the streets of Iran in the last few months?... They have chanted the name of my family, they have called for me.” — 03:11
• Nick Palam: “He looked visibly shocked. Something in the script had changed.” — 06:45
• Anne Roe: “He was really not sorry that he had done what he did...as he was publicized and arrested and shamed, he felt he was in the same position as them.” — 27:37

Summary Table – Key Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Speaker(s) | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------| | Iran's revolutionary moment | Jason Palmer, Nick Palam, Reza Pahlavi | 01:07–11:33 | | Buy vs Rent global economics | Jason Palmer, Mike Bird| 13:24–20:43 | | Obituary: Aldrich Ames | Anne Roe | 21:11–27:40 |

Episode Tone

The reporting is brisk, analytical, and at times somber (particularly in discussing Iran and the Ames case), but also eager to dissect trends with depth and nuance. Reza Pahlavi’s interview is handled with skepticism and probing questions, highlighting both his aspirations and the huge obstacles ahead.

Concluding Note

The episode paints a portrait of a nation in upheaval, with history and personal ambition colliding in Iran, interspersed with evidence-driven economic trend analysis and a reminder of the messy, human side of espionage. It offers both a sense of urgency—particularly around Iran’s uncertain future—and the measured insight characteristic of The Economist’s best explanatory journalism.