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Karim
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Bill (Bill.com representative)
Economist podcast is sponsored by Bill, the intelligent finance platform that helps businesses and accounting firms scale with proven results with AI powered automation. Bill isn't just moving money, they're simplifying financial operations. For nearly half a million customers, Bill has securely processed over a trillion dollars in transactions. That's proven infrastructure. Ready to talk with an expert? Visit bill.comproven and get a $250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.comproven. terms and conditions apply. See Offer page for details.
Jason Palmer
The Economist.
Rosie Blore
Hello, and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Rosie Blore.
Jason Palmer
And I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.
Rosie Blore
A decade ago, an array of fake meat products appeared on our supermarket shelves. They were apparently all set to eat into the profits of the real meat market. The stakes were high, and the carnivores may have won.
Jason Palmer
And the PDF file has always had its detractors, but you can't deny their popularity. There's something like 2.5 trillion of them floating around. The problem is, AI has trouble reading them, and that may at last be the file format's undoing. First up, though, America said last night that it had used bunker busting bombs to target missile sites on the Iranian coast trying to ungum the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran continued its assaults on the Gulf States. Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia all said that they had intercepted inbound missiles. We've talked endlessly about how this conflict has affected the oil industry. But there's far more turmoil going on, from fertilizer to critical minerals no longer passing by sea to another industry disrupted in the air.
Simon Wright
The events in the Middle east are a reminder that the region is not only crucial for global supplies of oil and gas coming through the Strait of Hormuz, but it's a vital conduit for the world's airline passengers.
Jason Palmer
Simon Wright is our industry editor.
Simon Wright
Pictures of stranded passengers in the tens of thousands in recent weeks shows how important the region has become as a hub for the global airline industry. But not only that, the impact on airlines, not just in the region, but worldwide, may well persist well after the war ends.
Jason Palmer
So the biggest, the most immediate effect is that the Middle east is just a big aviation hub for the world today.
Simon Wright
Well, that's right. Over the last couple of decades, the Middle east plays a much more central role in aviation. And that's mostly because of the Gulf carriers, the super connectors, as they're known. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar. The location in the Middle east, in the middle of three continents makes it a very useful hub for long haul passengers flying into the cavernous hub airports and then flying onto their destinations via two long haul legs. And that's become very popular because the airlines have been invested in very heavily by the state. They're very good airlines. And also the fares are very reasonable. That now looks under threat. I think there's two things going on here. The connecting flyers, they're probably going to come back once the war ends, not least because there's bound to be very, very good deals on offer from the Gulf carriers to bring them back. Whether Dubai remains a tourist destination and how many tourists are prepared to come back. Having seen what's gone on there, I think that might take longer.
Jason Palmer
But you hinted that it's not just the big Gulf carriers or these Gulf destinations that are imperiled by what's going on now.
Simon Wright
No, by all means not. First of all, other airlines flying over the area have to switch routes. Airspace around the Gulf has been closed of traffic already. Many more airlines were using that route because carriers, especially Western carriers, have had to avoid Russian airspace since the war in Ukraine. They're now having to take more circuitous routes around the Middle East. Transit route, the popular alternative, and that in itself is adding more time to the journeys and also burning more fuel. And it is fuel that's going to have the main effect on airlines worldwide. Jet fuel has become considerably more expensive. And the impact is actually more severe for airlines because the crack spread as it's known in the trade, the price difference between jet fuel and the crude oil that it's refined from has surged, particularly for a couple of main reasons. One is that a lot of jet fuel actually comes through the strait of Moves where shipping is at a standstill, something like 20% of the world's supply. The other reason is that refining has shifted from Europe, where refineries are closed down to Asia. Those Asian refineries rely on oil from the Gulf much more than other refineries. Like an oil well, you can't close a refinery. It's very, very expensive to restart a refinery once you've done that, and it takes a lot of time. So the supplies of crude oil they have, they're conserving, so they're refining much more slowly out. The supply of fuel is just not what it once was.
Jason Palmer
So really, all of this will impact kind of all the airlines, even the ones that don't even fly to, through or over the region.
Simon Wright
Yes, absolutely. But the impact will be uneven. First of all, for low cost carriers, fuel accounts for around a third of their costs. But for the legacy network full service carriers, it's more like a fifth of their costs. So it's more of a burden on low cost carriers. Having said that, airlines carry various levels of protection. Some are well hedged against near term price rises. Ryanair, iag, the parent company BA and others, and Qantas for example. But America's big carriers and Chinese big carriers typically don't carry hedges. They stopped doing so because they thought they were costly and overcomplicated. And that could cost them tens of billions of dollars if fuel prices remain high throughout the year. Other airlines are reacting by starting to ground aircraft in response to the high fuel costs. For example, Air New Zealand has grounded over a thousand flights from now until May.
Jason Palmer
And you also said that for all this, that the impacts that do occur may last long beyond the war itself.
Simon Wright
Absolutely. It really sort of depends on how quickly the oil production can get back up and how quickly jet fuel prices can come down. But also it depends how quickly the Gulf airlines can get back into action. There's actually an opportunity for some carriers. With the Gulf carriers out of action, they're putting on extra flights and they're jacking up their fares to destinations between Europe and, say, Asia that they fly. Germany's Lufthansa reported a jump in bookings to Asia in March, for example. Overall demand for air travel may suffer in the short term, especially if surging energy prices drag down economic growth. Growth and people are deterred from traveling, but in the past it's tended to bounce back pretty quickly from these sort of disruptions. I suppose another question is what happens with the Gulf Airlines? They'll want to win back some customers and they'll be up for the fight. And I think you'll see some very, very heavy discounting both for travel via the Gulf and also for holidays to Dubai in the near future.
Jason Palmer
Simon, thanks very much for your time.
Simon Wright
Thank you, Jason.
Bill (Bill.com representative)
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Holly Berman
Around a decade ago, a bunch of imitation meat products began to hit restaurant menus and supermarket shelves.
Rosie Blore
Holly Berman is a news editor in New York.
Holly Berman
They arrived at a perfect time for consumers who were becoming pickier about production methods, animal welfare standards and environmental concerns. The novelty of them was also intriguing. The most high tech offerings can make their burgers bleed just like a real burger. Even some carnivores were convinced by their meaty textures.
Bill (Bill.com representative)
It looks like a beef burger, it
Karim
certainly smells like a beef burger, and
Bill (Bill.com representative)
it chews like meat.
Holly Berman
The companies behind these products saw their valuations soar as fake meat went almost mainstream. Countless more startups tried to join the party. But now sales, revenues and profits have slumped and meat substitutes have quietly vanished from many menus and shopping trolleys.
Rosie Blore
Holly, you're right. These products were all over the place. What problem were they trying to solve? Why were they so popular?
Holly Berman
Well, I think the first thing they were trying to solve was offer vegetarian products that actually tasted good. And I can say this as someone that doesn't eat meat. So for someone like me, it was interesting to see if they could actually create a good veggie burger. And a lot of these things did taste pretty good. Not all of them were great, but some of them were. And then there was also this idea that by eating these products, by integrating them into your diet, you could be doing something for the environment. You're reducing your carbon footprint, you're not contributing to cruel farming practices. And so you've got this idea that maybe you're eating something that tastes good, but you're also helping the world in some kind of way.
Rosie Blore
All of that sounds very good. What went wrong?
Holly Berman
I think the big thing is that in the excitement of this market, a lot of companies tried to rush to it at the same time. And the result of that was that you did have some things that were great and they tasted good. But then some bosses of these companies even admitted to me that a lot of the products taste pretty bad. And so if you're a flexitarian and you decide to try a veggie burger just to see what it tastes like, and you try one of these products that isn't quite up to scratch, that can be enough to put you off for life, potentially. So it's high stakes for these companies that are trying to make an impression in the market. The other thing that's emerging more recently is this idea of eating well and not eating foods that are highly processed or ultra processed foods. So in America, there's a bit of a culture war around fake meat. One side of the spectrum, you've got these influences that are touting raw meat diets. You've Robert F. Kennedy Jr. That's encouraging people to eat real steak and eat real chicken. And the unfortunate issue for a lot of these products is that they are technically classified as ultra processed foods. So long ingredient lists, production processes, people are worried about sodium content, fat content in these products. And proponents of these artificial meat products will tell you that yes, they might technically be classified as ultra processed foods, but that's not the same as eating a bag of potato chips or eating loads of Oreos. It's different, has different nutritional values.
Rosie Blore
And is that right, that these products do actually have additional nutritional benefits and they aren't the same as eating a bag of crisps or something.
Holly Berman
A big thing that people talk about with alternative meat is sodium content. And so you have one company, impossible, which acknowledges that some of its products do have more sodium than raw unseasoned meat. But it says that that's not a fair comparison because few people will eat real meat unseasoned so there's that side of it. There's another side of this debate where a lot of these companies are trying to emphasize that they do have a lot of protein in their products. So especially now where protein is this huge food trend that people are mindful of how much they're consuming and want to consume more, these companies are trying to position themselves as a efficient way to increase your protein uptake.
Rosie Blore
So as you say, we thought this was going to be a huge business. What's actually happened to the companies producing fake meat?
Holly Berman
We could take Beyond Meat as probably the most famous example of this. So they went public in 2019. At the time, they were valued at nearly $4 billion. In 2020, US sales of meat alternatives increased by 45% to $1.4 billion. You look at Beyond Meat's trajectory since then and evaluation has since dropped well below $400 million. Its revenue has declined so far throughout 2025. And according to polling by the economists and YouGov, the share of American adults regularly eating these products remains in the sing over recent years. So I think the problem is that a lot of these companies were excited by the hype, but it hasn't quite landed where they expected it to today.
Rosie Blore
So does that mean fake meat is over?
Holly Berman
Depends who you ask. But I would say that a lot of these companies are aware of what's going on. They're leaning into flexitarians. This idea that you don't have to be a militant vegetarian to eat alternative meat, you can integrate it in your diet and still enjoy meat. And then you've also got interesting sideways expansions by some of these companies. Impossible has partnered with makers of protein dense breads. You've got beyond, which is trying to expand into protein drinks.
Rosie Blore
And what's happened to the idea of lab grown meat?
Holly Berman
Lab grown meat has been ticking along in the background. So from what I've heard, it's taken a hit from the trajectory of plant based meat. It's made some investors a little bit more cautious. But speaking to people within the industry, they're excited by it to explain what lab grown meat is. It's grown from the cells of an animal. So the appeal of this stuff, these companies say, is that you can still have a diet that's good for you, good for the planet. You can still enjoy the taste of meat and the benefits of meat without hurting an animal. There's a few companies in the US and Singapore attempting to bring their products to market. But the issue right now is that they need to scale and they need to navigate the regulatory environment. So in the US some states have proposed or passed bans that limit these companies from selling or processing lab grown meat. But speaking to insiders in this space, they're pretty optimistic at a federal level that this will not be an issue. And even in Britain, lab grown meat has been cleared as pet food. So it's something that is not going to immediately emerge out of this landscape. They're learning lessons from what plant based meat has done. They're not going to move as quickly as a lot of these companies have done in the past one because they need to be able to scale their businesses. But also they've learned from the mistakes perhaps of doing too much too quickly. Also, it might have a different fate in the supermarket than these alternative meat companies. Some people I spoke to think that it could end up in the meat aisle in a way that other plant based meat hasn't been able to do so and that's harder to call those things fake as it comes from animal cells and might well be next to a real burger.
Rosie Blore
And where do you stand on all of this, Holly? As a veggie, you going to eat plant based lab grown meat or what?
Holly Berman
I would be open to trying lab grown meat. I wish I got to try it while I was working on this story. I mean, I enjoy a plant based burger, I'll say it, but I understand why it's facing the challenges that it is.
Rosie Blore
Holly, thank you so much for talking to me.
Holly Berman
Thank you, Rosie.
Shira Aviona
When Adobe first introduced the PDF file format in 1993, someone with whom they spoke described it as the dumbest idea they'd ever heard in their life.
Rosie Blore
Shira Aviona writes about business.
Shira Aviona
Back in the early days of the World Wide Web, users would have to to wait for the megabyte sized files to download very slowly over their dial up Internet and then wait some more for their personal computers to render them. But the PDF project eventually triumphed over its haters because sharing digital files quickly became essential in the following decades, especially after America's tax authority began using the file type exclusively for Americans who wanted to fill out digital tax forms. But after Many more than 30 years of dominance, the PDF is in peril. People have always had complaints about PDFs. They're kind of difficult to view on mobile. Copying data from one to another is a bit fiddly. And they've had issues in the past with accessibility for people that use screen readers. They've also been a vehicle for many cyber attacks. About a fifth of email based cyber attacks are hidden within PDF attachments, according to one cybersecurity firm. But lately, a new source of criticism has emerged. Large language models behind generative AI are often very confused by PDFs. They don't understand the difference, for example, between text that's set in vertical columns and text that should be ready horizontally across the page. They also have a hard time distinguishing between captions, headings, image descriptions, and other things. So this general category of document semantics is something that LLMs find very difficult. And because a lot of important information is contained within PDFs, this is a major source of large language models Hallucinations Some startups are actually trying to solve this problem not by creating AI tools that are good at parsing document semantics, but rather by saying that we need to move on from finally from the PDF. But some people argue that the problem with the PDF is not in the file, but in the way that we use it. PDF defenders say there's no issue with PDF, it's working perfectly well. We just need to build AI tools that can deal with it properly. So, for example, Adobe, which doesn't manage the PDF anymore but is still a really important protector of the file format, has made an AI assistant for Acrobat that's good at doing things like parsing document semantics. And Google has also rolled out a tool for developers that use its Gemini models that makes ingesting PDFs a lot easier. So there's this Are these issues between AI and the PDF fundamental, or are they things that can easily be solved by tweaking models? Really, only time will tell if the great reign of the PDF is over.
Rosie Blore
That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.
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Released: March 18, 2026
Host: The Economist (Rosie Blore & Jason Palmer)
Featured Guest: Simon Wright (Industry Editor)
This episode explores the far-reaching impact of the recent Middle East conflict, particularly Iran’s escalating attacks on Gulf states and America’s use of bunker-busting bombs on the Iranian coast. While the disruption to oil and gas is well-known, hosts Jason Palmer and Rosie Blore focus on the surprisingly extensive ripple effects on global airline travel—especially for the “super-connector” Gulf airlines. The episode then pivots to the struggles of the fake meat industry and wraps up with the challenges PDFs present to artificial intelligence.
[03:17–08:52]
Strategic Importance of the Gulf:
The Middle East is not only vital for oil and gas flows but has become a global aviation hub, connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa via carriers like Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways.
Immediate Disruption:
Recent hostilities have stranded tens of thousands of passengers and halted both regional and international flights.
“Pictures of stranded passengers in the tens of thousands in recent weeks shows how important the region has become as a hub for the global airline industry.”
— Simon Wright [03:32]
The ‘Super-Connectors’ Model at Risk:
Gulf airlines benefited from their geographic location and massive state investment, offering quality service and competitive fares.
However, their hub-and-spoke model is particularly exposed to regional volatility.
“Their location in the Middle East, in the middle of three continents, makes it a very useful hub for long-haul passengers... That now looks under threat.”
— Simon Wright [03:59]
Broader Impact Beyond the Gulf:
"Airspace around the Gulf has been closed to traffic already... that in itself is adding more time to the journeys and also burning more fuel."
— Simon Wright [05:09]
Jet Fuel Supply Shock:
The supply of jet fuel is severely disrupted:
"It is fuel that's going to have the main effect on airlines worldwide... The supply of fuel is just not what it once was."
— Simon Wright [06:18]
Asymmetric Pain:
“Airlines carry various levels of protection. Some are well hedged... But America's big carriers and Chinese big carriers typically don't carry hedges... That could cost them tens of billions of dollars.”
— Simon Wright [06:48]
Medium-term Prospects:
“They'll want to win back some customers and they'll be up for the fight. And I think you'll see some very, very heavy discounting...”
— Simon Wright [08:33]
[10:17–17:18]
The Promise of Plant-Based Meat:
Around a decade ago, plant-based meat substitutes seemed poised to revolutionize the food industry, targeting both vegetarians and environmentally conscious consumers.
Market Problems:
"If you try one of these products that isn't quite up to scratch, that can be enough to put you off for life, potentially."
— Holly Berman [11:53]
Nutritional Debate:
Industry Setbacks:
“A lot of these companies were excited by the hype, but it hasn't quite landed where they expected it to today.”
— Holly Berman [14:47]
Future Directions:
"They're learning lessons from what plant based meat has done. They're not going to move as quickly as a lot of these companies have done in the past..."
— Holly Berman [15:22]
[17:38–20:53]
Longevity and Ubiquity:
The PDF, introduced in 1993, is one of the most common digital file formats worldwide, despite early skepticism.
“When Adobe first introduced the PDF file format in 1993, someone with whom they spoke described it as the dumbest idea they'd ever heard in their life."
— Shira Aviona [17:38]
Persistent Complaints:
Difficulties with mobile viewing, copying data, accessibility for the disabled, and frequent usage by cyber attackers.
AI’s New PDF Problem:
Looking Ahead:
"Are these issues between AI and the PDF fundamental, or are they things that can easily be solved by tweaking models? Really, only time will tell if the great reign of the PDF is over."
— Shira Aviona [20:31]
"Their location in the Middle East... makes it a very useful hub for long-haul passengers... That now looks under threat."
— Simon Wright [03:59]
"If you try one of these products that isn't quite up to scratch, that can be enough to put you off for life, potentially."
— Holly Berman [11:53]
“Are these issues between AI and the PDF fundamental, or are they things that can easily be solved by tweaking models?"
— Shira Aviona [20:31]
The episode is analytic and brisk, combining crisp journalism with industry insiders' perspectives. The hosts and guests deliver their insights with clarity, focusing on the interconnectedness of global crises and business trends.
This episode provides a nuanced look at how geopolitical shocks in the Gulf region are disrupting not just oil markets, but the very infrastructure of global air travel, with implications that could persist even after hostilities subside. It couples this theme of unexpected industry vulnerability with an exploration of the “fake meat” bust and a thought-provoking look at the endurance of the humble PDF in an AI-driven world. For listeners seeking to understand the ripple effects of current crises, this episode offers sharp reporting and global context.