Grave new world: the Greenland row’s lasting damage

Summary

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Economist Podcasts: "Grave new world: the Greenland row’s lasting damage"

Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Rosie Bloor
Correspondents: Tom Nuttall, Lane Greene, Tom Wainwright

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the whirlwind week in transatlantic relations following Donald Trump's threats over Greenland, the fallout and future for US-European diplomacy, a pivotal moment in the TikTok saga, and an analysis of the increasingly somber mood in global pop music. The mix ranges from high-stakes geopolitics to the cultural undercurrents shaping mainstream music.

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Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. The Greenland Row and Transatlantic Turmoil

[01:15–10:31]

Recap & Escalation

• Donald Trump threatened tariffs on NATO allies who opposed his plan to acquire Greenland, dramatically raising tensions at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

• Trump's speech included lambasting European leaders and confusion between Greenland and Iceland, adding to the diplomatic spectacle.

  “I love Europe and I want to see Europe go good, but it's not heading in the right direction... Iceland, that I can tell you.”
  — Lane Greene imitating Trump's comments ([02:36])

De-escalation & Uncertain Resolutions

• Trump later declared the US would not take Greenland by force and dropped the tariff threat, stating instead that a deal was "in the offing."

• Tom Nuttall summarizes the European mood:

  “We are waking up this morning with a severe sense of whiplash. It's been the most extraordinary week in transatlantic relations, even by the standards of Donald Trump.”
  — Tom Nuttall ([03:25])

• There is mention of a vague "framework for some sort of deal" between the US and NATO. Details are slim and any substantial agreement depends on further negotiations, notably with Denmark and Greenland's self-government.

  “At most, this is the beginning of something, not the end of something.”
  — Tom Nuttall ([05:19])

Sovereignty & Trade Aftershocks

• Denmark stands firm: no sale of Greenland, no breach of sovereignty.

• Fallout impacts broader EU-US trade relations. An EU-US trade deal was already skewed in America’s favor. Ratification pending, now frozen as EU leaders assess their stance.

  “I haven't seen any indication on whether they'll resume work on ratifying it... Another unknown is what's going to happen to a threat we were hearing from the Europeans to slap tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of American imports...”
  — Tom Nuttall ([06:17])

Lessons & Long-Term Shifts

• The episode marks a psychological turning point for Europe’s dealings with America—moving from appeasement to more assertive, “hardball” tactics.

  “When we put credible threats on the table to retaliate to this, then we get results... The EU is a very powerful trade player when it can get its act together.”
  — Tom Nuttall ([08:30])

• Europeans are questioning reliance on the US for defense and as a NATO partner, especially concerning support for Ukraine and intelligence sharing.

  “If America has proved itself so unreliable over Greenland... then how reliable a partner might it be in the event of some sort of ceasefire with Ukraine?”
  — Tom Nuttall ([09:49])

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2. The TikTok Deal: A Quiet End to a Prolonged Saga

[12:04–17:55]

• Summary of US efforts to force TikTok’s separation from Chinese ownership—timeline stretching from Trump’s 2020 ban attempt to current "deal" mandating Americans principally control the US arm of TikTok.

• ByteDance (Chinese parent) will retain up to 20% ownership, a board seat, and ongoing influence through royalties and shared infrastructure.

  “ByteDance may not own the car any longer, but it still owns the engine.”
  — Analyst quoted by Tom Wainwright ([15:30])

• US political appetite to act on TikTok has waned—even as usage and therefore risks (data, influence on news consumption) have grown.

  “Congress just can't seem to muster much fresh indignation about this... TikTok worries have diminished, but I don't think that's because TikTok is any less dangerous than it was. I think it's because America faces many more dangers than it used to.”
  — Tom Wainwright ([16:53], [17:47])

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3. The Rise of Sadness in Pop Music

[18:15–23:37]

• Lane Greene discusses the increasing prevalence of melancholy, angst, and heartbreak in top-charting music globally.

• AI analysis by MusicMatch and academic studies both show a marked increase in "downbeat" moods in pop lyrics over recent decades, especially since 2020.

• External events like global crises do not explain the trend; instead, shifts seem rooted in audience tastes.

  “The drift towards more downbeat music has been long-lasting... This is a long-term trend that doesn't seem to be reacting to short-term changes.”
  — Lane Greene ([21:01])

• Examples include Billie Eilish's “Everything I Wanted,” as well as the worldwide hit “Die With a Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars.

  “If you notice that the Top of the Pops sounds bluer than it used to, the issue may not lie with the artists, but with the listless listeners and their darkening moods.”
  — Lane Greene ([23:14])

• Despite gloomier lyrics, positive themes like love and empowerment remain present in pop, though hope has declined.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Greenland spectacle:
  “We probably won't get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force... But I won't do that.”
  — Lane Greene imitating Trump ([03:02–03:14])

• Psychological fallout in Europe:
  “There’s more value in playing hardball with the Americans than we might previously have seen.”
  — Tom Nuttall ([08:35])

• On the illusion of resolving TikTok’s risks:
  “The risk has got higher than it was before... more of them are using it for news. So the risk of manipulation is more severe than it was in the past. But Congress just can't seem to muster much fresh indignation about this.”
  — Tom Wainwright ([16:53])

• Pop music’s cultural pulse:
  “Sad sells... people seem to be seeking out gloomier music.”
  — Lane Greene ([19:25]; [22:39])

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Timestamps for Key Sections

• Greenland/NATO/Europe crisis & fallout: [01:15–10:31]
• The TikTok saga—resolution & risk: [12:04–17:55]
• Chart pop gloom: lyrics & listener tastes: [18:15–23:37]

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Tone and Style

The episode is incisive and wry, balancing factual reporting with subtle humor and direct commentary—especially in re-enactments of Trump’s rhetoric and the slightly sardonic exploration of pop culture trends.

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Takeaways for Listeners

• The Greenland row was less a resolved diplomatic crisis and more an inflection point in US-Europe relations, prompting European leaders to reconsider their long-term security and trade strategies.
• The TikTok drama illustrates the US’s conflicted approach to strategic tech policy and the erosion of political unity around national security threats when larger domestic concerns take precedence.
• Music trends, illuminated through a data-driven and cultural lens, reveal not only industry shifts but also the evolving psyche of global listeners—reflecting broader societal moods and, perhaps, anxieties.

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Transcript

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[Tom Wainwright]

The economist.

[Rosie Bloor]

Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. The future of TikTok in America has long been in flux with threats to shut it down or demand to completely separate itself from its Chinese owners. Today is the deadline for a resolution on its future, our correspondent reports, and it's a tough world out there and our music seems to reflect that. Analysis of Chart topping pop lyrics over time shows that the mood is only darkening. Heartbreak has always been a theme. Now angst joins it. The era of the seriously sad song is upon us. First up, though, Even by Donald Trump's usual standards, the past few days have been a whirlwind. At the weekend, Trump seemed to take the NATO alliance to the brink, threatening tariffs on any allies opposing his plan to acquire Greenland. Yesterday, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, in a long and rambling speech, he lambasted European leaders.

[Lane Greene]

I love Europe and I want to see Europe go good, but it's not heading in the right direction appeared to.

[Rosie Bloor]

Confuse Greenland and Iceland.

[Lane Greene]

Iceland, that I can tell you.

[Tom Nuttall]

I mean, our stock market took the.

[Lane Greene]

First dip yesterday because of Iceland, and.

[Rosie Bloor]

Again insisted that America must own Greenland to make the world a safer place. But then came two surprises. America would not, he said, take Greenland by force.

[Lane Greene]

We probably won't get anything unless I.

[Capital One Bank Announcer]

Decide to use excessive strength and force.

[Lane Greene]

Where we would be frankly unstoppable.

[Capital One Bank Announcer]

But I won't do that.

[Rosie Bloor]

Later, he dropped the tariff threat too, saying that a deal was in the offing. The storm has abated, but what has been destroyed, we are waking up this.

[Tom Nuttall]

Morning with a severe sense of whiplash. It's been the most extraordinary weak in transatlantic relations, even by the standards of Donald Trump.

[Rosie Bloor]

Tom Nuttall is our Berlin bureau chief.

[Tom Nuttall]

What it looks like is that the President has withdrawn his threat to slap extra tariffs on eight European countries that have sent troops to Greenland. We know that there has been some sort of framework of some sort of deal agreed between America and NATO. Details are extremely scant right now, and everybody will be very keen to find out exactly what it was that was supposedly agreed last night. But at least for now, it looks like the sirens that were flashing red all over Europe have been turned off.

[Rosie Bloor]

And Thomas, you say there's still a lot that we don't know. But what do we know about this possible deal?

[Tom Nuttall]

Very little. America currently has only one military base on Greenland. It used to have 17. It chose to draw those down. Now, Denmark has said all along that the Americans would be welcome to expand their military presence in Greenland again. So that may be happening. There may also have been some discussion on rights to access the rare earths and other minerals that sit under the vast Greenlandic ice sheet. Again, there was nothing stopping American firms from bidding for those under the status quo. But that might be a way in which Trump can be presented with a sort of a win here. I think the thing to emphasize, though, is that what all sides have said, including Trump, is that all we have at most is some sort of framework for some future agreement. And because Greenland remains a self governing territory, the Kingdom of Denmark, the details of whatever agreement is going to emerge from this will have to be worked out between the American side and the Danish side. All that we had yesterday was a discussion between Donald Trump and Mark Rutter, the head of NATO. So this is at most, this is the beginning of something, not the end of something.

[Rosie Bloor]

And what about Trump's plans for America to buy Greenland?

[Tom Nuttall]

I think we can sort of forget about that now. It looks clear that the insistence from Denmark and from its European allies that the sovereignty of Denmark and the rights of the Greenlanders to choose their own destiny would have to be respected, that this was a red line. There is no sense at all that that has been violated, that there's been any sense of compromise on that front. I don't see any possibility for any sort of deal that involves a purchase because the sovereignty of Denmark is going to remain intact.

[Rosie Bloor]

And the EU had suspended work on its trade deal with the US because of the Greenland row. Is that all now back on again, God knows.

[Tom Nuttall]

Let's go back to last summer when the EU and the US Signed a trade deal that was widely regarded as humiliating for the EU because they basically had to accept that they were going to eliminate tariffs on the import of American goods while accepting that the Americans were going to slap 15% tariffs on EU exports. Now, the European Parliament had to ratify that deal yesterday before this climb down from Trump. They suspended their work on that ratification. I haven't seen any indication on whether they will resume work on ratifying it. Now, that's one big unknown. Another unknown is what's going to happen to a threat that we were hearing from the Europeans to slap tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of American imports that they had ready to go in those trade negotiations last year, but then suspended. Now, there had been strong suggestions on the European side that they would now put those tariffs on those American goods as retaliation. Again, I haven't seen any indication yet from any European leaders on what they're thinking about that. But this evening we have a summit of the 27 EU leaders. This was arranged a few days ago when those American tariffs were still on the table. That summit will still go ahead. And there we should get some sort of indication on whether the Europeans want to back down themselves in response to this Trump climb down or whether they want to keep this stuff on the table, because it's still not at all clear what the Americans want to do.

[Rosie Bloor]

It's been the most extraordinary week. In concrete terms. We're not anywhere that different from where we were a week ago. But psychologically, I think perhaps we are. What lessons do you think European leaders can take from this turn of events?

[Tom Nuttall]

This is a really important question because I think over the course of the last seven to 10 days, there's really been a sense now in many European capitals of the scales falling from the eyes that the previous approach that has been taken to the Trump administration of public sycophancy, very delicate diplomacy behind the scenes, to a certain extent, appeasement. You know, I think that's what we saw with this trade deal that was agreed last summer. There's now a strong sense that this is just not effective with Trump. And I think the lesson that a lot of Europeans will take from what we saw yesterday will be, well, actually, when we put credible threats on the table to retaliate to this, then we get results, because this is a huge consumer market. The EU is a very powerful trade player when it can get its act together. The Americans have big interests in Europe and if they stand to lose out on those, the Europeans could potentially inflict grave damage on the American economy. And of course, we're already seeing huge concerns inside America about cost of living in the run up to the November midterms. And this is something that the Europeans have been very aware of. So I think there's now a, both a strong, strong sense that there is more value in playing hardball with the Americans than we might previously have seen, but also in the longer term, and I think this will be something that is discussed at this evening's summit, that the broader transatlantic relationship may now need to be recalibrated somewhat and there are all sorts of consequences that might flow from that. Europeans doing more on defence themselves, we were already seeing that. But a sense that we can't rely on the Americans for our security in the way that we might have thought that we could do before. A sense that America, at least under the Trump administration, cannot be relied upon remotely as a NATO partner as a security guarantee. There have been concerns in some European capitals that if you push back too hard on Greenland, then you jeopardize what American support remains for Ukraine, including the provision of weapons, intelligence sharing. Also potential American security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire. If America has proved itself so unreliable over Greenland, this ridiculous argument that we've been having for the last week, then how reliable a partner might it be in the event of some sort of ceasefire with Ukraine? So I think all of these issues are going to be discussed in great detail by European leaders this evening. And I don't think the fact that Trump has now climbed down on tariffs means that we're going to have a return to the diplomatic status quo ante.

[Rosie Bloor]

Tom, thank you very much.

[Tom Nuttall]

Thank you, Rosie.

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[Rosie Bloor]

A decade ago, a short video app launched that soon became one of the most downloaded. But not everyone was enamored by TikTok. Some Western governments worried that it was a tool of the Chinese Communist party, an accusation TikTok has always rejected. Donald Trump first tried to ban it in 2020. Then under Joe Biden, a law was passed. The app had to separate from its Chinese owners or be shut down. Trump ordered officials not to enforce that ban after he took office a year ago. That pause has been extended several times. Just before Christmas, TikTok's boss said a deal had finally been to transfer ownership of its US operations to American investors. That transaction is due to close today.

[Tom Wainwright]

So many deadlines have been broken during the saga that I don't think we can be completely sure of what's going to happen today.

[Rosie Bloor]

Tom Wainwright is our media editor.

[Tom Wainwright]

But it does look as if a resolution to this drama is now close. It seems as if years of back and forth on this may now be heading for a surprisingly low key ending.

[Rosie Bloor]

So what problem is this deal supposed to be solving?

[Tom Wainwright]

Well people say that TikTok presents two risks to Americans. One supposedly is that it could be stealing users data. The other, which I think is a more plausible risk, is that it could be influencing what they see. And American politicians are worried that because TikTok is currently owned by ByteDance, which is a Beijing headquartered company, ByteDance could be open to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party to alter the algorithm in a way that changes what American viewers watch. And given that a lot of people now use TikTok for watching not just entertainment but news, that's a potential problem. It means that Americans news consumption could be influenced in theory by the Chinese Communist Party.

[Rosie Bloor]

So does this resolution solve the so called China problem?

[Tom Wainwright]

Well on the face of it, yes it does. The law in America requires investors from foreign adversaries, which includes China, to not own more than 20% of TikTok. And so ByteDance, which is the Beijing headquartered owner of TikTok, has duly come up with this plan to create a US only version of TikTok and reduce its stake in it to just under 20%. The rest of it's going to be owned by a group of investors, most of them American, some from the UAE and American users. Data is still going to be held in America by Oracle, a US tech firm. And Oracle is also going to retrain TikTok's recommendation algorithm on American data. To prevent the risk of foreign manipulation of what people see. So all of that sounds fairly promising.

[Rosie Bloor]

And I can hear a but coming.

[Tom Wainwright]

Yeah, there's quite a big snag, which is that ByteDance, the Chinese founder of this company, is going to remain fairly closely involved in the company, by the looks of things. It's reportedly going to have one of seven board seats and supposedly it's going to lease its recommendation algorithm to the American TikTok in return for ongoing royalty payments, which could be around 20% of TikTok's revenue. TikTok has also said that Global TikTok, owned by ByteDance, will continue to manage American TikTok's ad business, its E E commerce, and what it calls global product interoperability, which implies ongoing close links between the two apps. Advertisers have been told that they're going to be able to buy commercials across all of TikTok via a single platform. All of this really seems to fly in the face of the law's requirement that TikTok should be cut off from any operational relationship with ByteDance. One analyst put it to me like this. He said ByteDance may not own the car any longer, but it still owns the engine.

[Rosie Bloor]

Tom Trump had branded TikTok a threat to national security. And this doesn't sound like it deals with it. So what's changed?

[Tom Wainwright]

Well, we've got to remember how long this whole business has been going on. He first tried to ban TikTok back in 2020, and back then, TikTok was a fairly new app. It was seen by many people as just a teenage craze. Today in America, TikTok is used by about 170 million people, including not just teenagers, but their parents and some of their grandparents. It's a really popular thing, and support for banning it has fallen. Use of it has risen. Another reason is that it looks like some of the allies of the president are getting a pretty Good deal here. J.D. vance, the Vice president, said last year that the American buyers of U.S. tikTok were going to be paying about $14 billion. Now, if true, that's an absolute steal, is equal to roughly one year's worth of TikTok's American ad revenue. So the American buyers are getting a very good deal. Donald Trump may also see an advantage to himself from TikTok's new setup. It's going to be controlled now principally by American companies which are fairly close to the president, and he may hope that through them he may be able to influence somewhat the kind of material that TikTok shows its users.

[Rosie Bloor]

So is anyone opposing this deal?

[Tom Wainwright]

Well, not really. I mean, it's funny because the risk has got higher than it was before. More Americans use the app and more of them are using it for news. So the risk of manipulation is more severe than it was in the past. But Congress just can't seem to muster much fresh indignation about this. They went to all the lengths of passing a pretty comprehensive law on it more than a year ago. It was upheld by the Supreme Court. Supreme Court. And that law was just ignored for a year. Meanwhile, China hawks within the administration have quietened down, too. Marco Rubio, when he was in the Senate, campaigned against Tick Tock. He called it a Trojan horse. Now he's fallen in line behind the president. He has other things to do, you know, running Venezuela, all the other things that he's been set. And the Democrats also seem to have quietened down as well. I think worry about foreign authoritarianism is more muted now that many of them are more worried about domestic authoritarianism. So TikTok worries have diminished. But I don't think that's because TikTok is any less dangerous than it was. I think it's because America faces many more dangers than it used to.

[Rosie Bloor]

Tom, thank you so much for talking to me.

[Tom Wainwright]

Thank you.

[Lane Greene]

The song Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars was one of the anthems of 2025.

[Rosie Bloor]

Lane Green writes about language for the Economist.

[Lane Greene]

The ballad topped charts globally in more than 30 countries, and if you listen to the lyrics, they are not hopeful. They verge on depressing. This collaboration between two modern musical heavyweights goes some way to explaining the song's success, but some of its app probably owes something to its mood. Melancholy is increasingly topping the musical charts. In other words, sad sells. Why do I end up like this? In an analysis for the Economist, Music's Match, which applies AI to musical data, gathered lyrics from the Billboard Top 100 songs for each week of the past few decades, and using their artificial intelligence tools, music match assigned moods to each track, such as love or joy or heartbreak or angst.

[Tom Nuttall]

Days pass by like it's ours.

[Lane Greene]

The results suggest that pop has in fact grown gloomier. The share of hits with lyrics involving angst has increased by 13 percentage points in the last couple of decades. That puts it neck and neck with heartbreak, another mood which has long been a pop staple, but which is also on the rise lately. Now, these categories are not exclusive, so that many songs about heartbreak are also perhaps classified as angsty despair, as the mood also began to increase Sharply after about 2020 now, around a quarter of songs in the top 100 have some kind of lyrics that hint at misery. Think of moody hits by Billie Eilish, for example. Her song Everything I wanted from 2019, Even though the song is called Everything I Wanted, is kind of a bummer. She sings that she had a dream about getting everything she wanted before going on to tell you that it might have been a nightmare. Of course, her way of singing makes every song kind of sound like her last dying breath as well.

[Tom Wainwright]

It should.

[Lane Greene]

Be noted that positive emotions are still prominent in popular music. If you look to Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, you can hear them singing upbeat songs as well. Bruno Mars is best known for Uptown Funk, a very danceable and happy song. Love remains the number one mood expressed, and there are still plenty of joyful hits out there. Some happy themes, such as hope, have dipped in the last 25 years, but others, including empowerment, have grown more prominent. To go back to Lady Gaga, you might listen to the lyrics of Born this Way, which you could call a kind of anthem of empowerment. Yet empowerment does not always mean happiness. You might feel empowered to seek what you want, but as another man once sang, you can't always get what you want. The drift towards more downbeat music has been long lasting, so another recent scientific analysis published in the journal Scientific Reports found a similar pattern over the past half century. Looking at the billboard chart since 1973, the authors showed that lyrical stress, as they put it, has been on the rise over the 53 years since then, while positivity in lyrics has declined now. The authors thought that this might be due to the news. They looked at world events like the September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001 or the COVID 19 pandemic beginning in 2020, and they thought that that might drive listeners to darker songs. But contrary to their initial hypothesis, there was no short term link. In other words, this is a long term trend that doesn't seem to be reacting to short term changes. Nor were people's listening patterns correlated with economic growth or lack of it. For example, looking at people's incomes, whether they rose and fell. So this doesn't seem to have been driving the trend in downbeat music. E. So these trends are less about music production through the years than about musical tastes. These analyses are of the hits, not of every song that was recorded and released, so people seem to be seeking out gloomier music. If you notice that the Top of the Pops sounds bluer than it used to, the issue may not lie with the artists, but with the listless listeners and their darkening moods.

[Rosie Bloor]

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.

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