Economist Podcasts – Intelligence

Episode: "Independence Jay? Inflation and attacks on the Fed"

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Guests: Archie Hall (U.S. Economics Editor), John Peat (Associate Editor & Brexit Editor), Catherine Nixie (Culture Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into:

• The newest inflation data in the U.S. and mounting political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, including unprecedented legal threats.
• The lasting economic impact of Brexit, six years after the UK's formal exit from the European Union.
• A wry analysis of the self-help book industry's evolution and what it reveals about society's anxieties.

The episode is structured around three core discussions, skipping intro/outros and advertisements.

1. U.S. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Political Pressure

Main Theme

The Federal Reserve finds itself under intensifying political attack, notably from President Donald Trump. The Fed is simultaneously navigating stubbornly stalled inflation and new threats to its institutional independence—now under the cloud of a Department of Justice investigation of its chairman, Jerome Powell.

Key Points and Insights

• Stubborn Inflation

  • Recent data shows U.S. annual inflation at 2.7%, matching expectations but not yet hitting the Fed’s 2% target.
  • "That very last bit, squeezing it all the way back to two, has proven a good bit more difficult than it may have initially seemed." — Archie Hall (04:31)
  • Tariffs and their pass-through effects continue to buoy goods inflation, making the final reduction hardest.

• Policy Dilemma:

  • The Fed faces a "balancing act" between slightly-elevated inflation and a softening labor market.
  • “Chair Powell… has called this curious balance where both legs of the Fed's mandate are slightly pulling it in different directions.” — Archie Hall (05:57)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Threat to Fed Independence:

  • “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.” — Archie Hall quoting Jerome Powell’s statement (03:56)

• On Political Escalation:

  • “We got a video statement from Jerome Powell saying in no uncertain terms that this was not a matter of building renovation, that this was about interest rates, and this was specifically about the President's desire to push interest rates lower than would make sense, effectively countervailing the independence of the Fed.” — Archie Hall (06:49)

• Market Response:

  • A small dip in stocks and a sharp rise in precious metals followed the DOJ news, but bond yields remained stable.
  • “For whatever reason… some combination… seems to be preventing markets from really appreciating, throwing a hissy fit in the way… in any other kind of normal situation where you have such direct and overt interference potential.” — Archie Hall (08:16)

Timestamps for Segments

• Introduction to Inflation/Fed (01:57–04:21)
• Fed’s Inflation Challenge (04:21–05:09)
• Policy Balancing Act (05:09–06:13)
• Political Pressure and DOJ Investigation (06:13–07:34)
• Market Reaction (07:34–08:44)
• Broader Threats & Hypotheticals (08:44–11:56)

Memorable Moment

• Discussing potential long-term risks to democracy and monetary stability:
  • “If Donald Trump decided to in some way assert total control over the Fed, yank interest rates all the way down, induce inflationary boom that devalues the US dollar, there's some pretty scary hypotheticals you can get to.” — Archie Hall (10:43)

2. Six Years After Brexit: Economic Reckoning and Reset

Main Theme

Six years on from Brexit’s completion, the Economist team reviews the hard numbers and shifting politics of the UK’s separation from the EU. The discussion centers on economic consequences, the modest scope of current attempts to rebuild ties, and public attitudes.

Key Points and Insights

• Economic Impact Summed Up

  • Economic studies largely confirm pre-referendum predictions: growth has slowed, investment fell, and goods exports declined.
  • “If you decide to leave your closest market and your closest allies and to erect new barriers to trade, your economy is going to suffer.” — John Peat (15:47)
  • The estimated GDP loss ranges from 4% (consensus) up to 6-8% in some studies. (16:14)
  • City of London and services fared better than predicted, but not as well as if the UK had stayed in the EU.

• Efforts to Improve Relations

  • The new Labour government’s “reset” strategy includes aligning with some single-market rules and youth mobility, but red lines remain on single market, customs union, and free movement.
  • “Most of those suggestions … add up to quite small beer. … A boost to the economy of no more than about 0.3%, which is not very much when you think that Brexit may have cost the economy 4%.” — John Peat (18:13)

• EU’s Attitude: Disinterest Unless UK Offers More

  • EU has “moved on,” focused on other priorities; further closeness would require UK acceptance of EU rules and payment into the EU budget.

• Public Opinion in Britain

  • Majority believes Brexit was a mistake; younger people especially support closer ties.
  • “It's particularly telling that young people are much keener on the idea of have closer links with the European Union than old people… but that's very much not the same as saying we therefore want to reopen the whole subject and have another referendum.” — John Peat (20:37)

Timestamps for Segments

• Brexit in Retrospect—Economic Impact (14:26–17:27)
• The "Reset" of Relations/Labour’s Position (17:27–19:11)
• EU Response and Public Opinion (19:11–22:35)

Memorable Quotes

• “The process of getting closer to the European Union will take a long time and it may not be quite as big a deal as some people are hoping.” — John Peat (22:34)

3. Self-Help Books: What Do They Reveal About Us?

Main Theme

A satirical review of the self-help book phenomenon, exploring their popularity, evolution, and the underlying societal anxieties they betray.

Key Points and Insights

• Cultural Satire:

  • Recent animal-parable self-help books (“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, the Horse and the Storm”) top charts, praised as heartwarming but seen as superficial.
  • “Its insights are supposedly aimed at children, yet adored by adults.” — Catherine Nixie (23:16)

• A Mirror of Social Anxiety:

  • Self-help books have evolved from Victorian moralizing to visualization (Think and Grow Rich), to hyper-optimization (Atomic Habits), reflecting societal concerns across eras.
  • “Read through a century of self help and you are offered an archaeology of anxiety.” — Catherine Nixie (24:14)

• Doubt About Their Effectiveness:

  • Evidence on efficacy is thin; the real benefit may be more in distraction from the self than self-optimization.
  • “There is much better evidence for what actually helps people. And most of these things involve what the philosopher Iris Murdoch called unselfing. In other words, forgetting about yourself.” — Catherine Nixie (26:23)

• Playfully Ironic Conclusion:

  • “Perhaps this January you shouldn't read a self help book, you should read an unself help book instead.” — Catherine Nixie (27:20)

Timestamps for Segment

• Self-Help Book Segment (22:54–27:23)

Notable Quotes

• “The seven Deadly Sins may lead to seven figure sales.” — Catherine Nixie (25:03)
• “Its tone is like that of Winnie the Pooh, but without the grit and the darkness.” — Catherine Nixie (24:14)

Summary Table: Key Segments and Timestamps

| Segment | Main Discussion / Insight | Notable Quote / Moment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|---------------| | U.S. Inflation & Fed Under Pressure | Stalled inflation, DOJ probe, political risks to independence | “This… is a consequence of the Fed setting rates…” (Powell) | 03:56–11:56 | | Six Years On: Brexit's Economic Reckoning | Measured economic cost, limited reset with EU, shifting public views | “If you decide to leave your closest market…” (Peat) | 14:26–22:37 | | Self-Help Books as Cultural Barometer | Bestsellers as a symptom of anxiety, criticisms, real “unselfing” help | “Perhaps this January you shouldn't read a self help book, you should read an unself help book instead.” (Nixie) | 22:54–27:23 |

Tone & Style

• Jason Palmer: Calm, clear, lightly ironic.
• Archie Hall: Analytical, precise, urgent when discussing hypothetical threats.
• John Peat: Measured, candid, reflective, with some dry wit.
• Catherine Nixie: Witty, satirical, erudite.

For Listeners Who Haven't Tuned In

This is an episode that sharply, yet accessibly, addresses major economic and social crossroads: the uneasy tension between monetary independence and political power in the U.S.; the ongoing consequences (and societal divides) left by Brexit; and a lighter, but insightful, look at how the self-help boom is both a symptom and a product of modern anxieties. Clear-eyed analysis is coupled with moments of humor and memorable, quotable observations from The Economist’s correspondents.